In article <
slrnkfga75...@azaal.plus.com>, Andy Leighton wrote:
>On Thu, 17 Jan 2013 15:00:12 +0000, Adam Funk <
a24...@ducksburg.com> wrote:
>> On 2013-01-17, Dr Zoidberg wrote:
>>
>>>
>>> "M Wicks" <
mwick...@gmail.com> wrote in message
>>> news:efba298a-129d-4c12...@w18g2000vbe.googlegroups.com...
>>>> I think that on balance, cyclists should not be required to stop at
>>>> red lights, on the basis that any collision that occurs is likely to
>>>> harm the cyclist a lot more than the other road user(s).
>>>
>>> Cyclists going through red lights are also very likely to cause crashes
>>> between vehicles that weren't expecting it and then took evasive action, or
>>> with pedestrians who are likely to be hurt.
>>> This seems like a bad idea to me.
>>
>> I agree.
>
>Well I agree it is a bad idea. I disagree with the "very likely".
>ery likely means to me 85-100% chance of it happening (some bodies
>like the IPCC use 90-100% for very likely). I was say that a cycle
>going through a red light causing crashes between other unsuspecting
>vehicles is exceptionally unlikely (< 1% probability on the IPCC
>standard terms).
The frequency of complaints about cyclists already jumping red lights
compared with the small[1] number of reports of damage or injuries caused
by vehicles evading them supports that. (As indeed does the number of
cyclists I've seen jumping red lights without causing crashes.)
Similarly over the years I've seen thousands of motorists jumping
red lights without causing crashes.
However, if the suggestion is that lots more cyclists routinely going
through red lights is _collectively_ very likely to cause some crashes
sooner or later, that's more plausible.
[1] Possibly zero. I have once seen a report of damage to a van which
swerved to avoid hitting a cyclist and hit another motor vehicle instead.
However, I think that was because the cyclist didn't have lights, not
because they were red light jumping. But obviously there could be many
incidents I haven't heard of - the number will still be tiny compared
with complaints about red light jumping though.