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How Anecdotal Evidence Can Undermine Scientific Results
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Phi-Sci Online
Jul 25, 2008, 12:25:11 PM7/25/08
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We have evolved brains that pay attention to anecdotes because false
positives (believing there is a connection between A and B when there
is not) are usually harmless, whereas false negatives (believing there
is no connection between A and B when there is) may take you out of
the gene pool. Our brains are belief engines that employ association
learning to seek and find patterns. Superstition and belief in magic
are millions of years old, whereas science, with its methods of
controlling for intervening variables to circumvent false positives,
is only a few hundred years old. So it is that any medical huckster
promising that A will cure B has only to advertise a handful of
successful anecdotes in the form of testimonials. Link:
http://www.sciam.com/article.cfm?id=how-anecdotal-evidence-can-undermine-scientific-results
positives (believing there is a connection between A and B when there
is not) are usually harmless, whereas false negatives (believing there
is no connection between A and B when there is) may take you out of
the gene pool. Our brains are belief engines that employ association
learning to seek and find patterns. Superstition and belief in magic
are millions of years old, whereas science, with its methods of
controlling for intervening variables to circumvent false positives,
is only a few hundred years old. So it is that any medical huckster
promising that A will cure B has only to advertise a handful of
successful anecdotes in the form of testimonials. Link:
http://www.sciam.com/article.cfm?id=how-anecdotal-evidence-can-undermine-scientific-results
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Mats Winther
Jul 26, 2008, 12:29:13 AM7/26/08
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I am grateful for these information messages. Thanks.
Mats
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