Re: Barclays Bank could be the BIG one about to pop!.....so becareful you pommy bastards
pete
wrote:
>Rumour has it that Barclays is very exposed to significant risk to
>hedge funds and private equity firms as it rushes in to buy ABN Amro,
>Barclays hedge fund fee income may also be hurt as the value of its
>assets in so called quantitative funds falls on default in mortgage
>backed securities and world wide credit tightening.
>
>Now this would really rock the boat.
I'm quite interested in financial matters - perhaps someone could
start an appropriate newsgroup.
Toom Tabard
> On Wed, 15 Aug 2007 00:32:47 -0700, Tony <v_gete...@hotmail.com>
Yes, maybe something like uk.finance ;-)
Toom
R. Mark Clayton
"Tony" <v_ge...@hotmail.com> wrote in message
news:1187163167.5...@q3g2000prf.googlegroups.com...
> Rumour has it that Barclays is very exposed to significant risk to
> hedge funds and private equity firms as it rushes in to buy ABN Amro,
> Barclays hedge fund fee income may also be hurt as the value of its
> assets in so called quantitative funds falls on default in mortgage
> backed securities and world wide credit tightening.
>
> Now this would really rock the boat.
>
If Barclays is borrowing the money to buy ABN, and the lenders can't deliver
than Barclays will have a problem with its potential acquisition. If
Barclays could not get the necessary together then the vendor (essentially
ABN Amro itself) would turn to the next highest bidder - RBS. RBS is larger
AND being Scottish typically has higher liquidity and reserve ratios than
English banks and would be paying less and so could presumably complete.
The shareholders in ABN could then sue Barclays for the difference (a few
billion pounds), which while it might hurt them (a year's profits perhaps)
would hardly put them out of business.
Barclays may have leant into the US market and be exposed to sub prime
mortgage risk, but I doubt they are major players or even underwriters in
this market and their overall exposure is unlikely to be more than one or
two percent of their book value.
Sum up
Hardly the first domino to fall.
Jonathan Bryce
> Barclays may have leant into the US market and be exposed to sub prime
> mortgage risk, but I doubt they are major players or even underwriters in
> this market and their overall exposure is unlikely to be more than one or
> two percent of their book value.
>
> Sum up
>
> Hardly the first domino to fall.
Well it looks like Northern Rock could be the first domino to fall. What he
is suggesting is that Barclays would be the first big domino to fall. I
would have thought HSBC had the greatest exposure of the big high street
banks though.
Jonathan Bryce
> On Aug 16, 3:50 am, Jonathan Bryce <jonat...@localhost.localdomain>
> wrote:
>
>>
>> Well it looks like Northern Rock could be the first domino to fall. What
>> he
>> is suggesting is that Barclays would be the first big domino to fall. I
>> would have thought HSBC had the greatest exposure of the big high street
>> banks though.
>
> Nope HSBC looks OK, but it would not surprise me to hear otherwise,
> right now, its awaiting game to see which funds are failing and as
> they get re price which then fail, and banks are not going to forecast
> that until the last minute when its over done and dusted....perhaps
> legislation is needed to extend the life of the loan and compensate
> with equity in the property for the lack of proper %ages
With the benefit of hindsight
Barclays in trouble - Times 23 August 2007
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/banking_and_finance/article2310508.ece
as a result of HSBC cancelling a loan to them
Northern Rock in trouble - Times 24 August 2007
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/banking_and_finance/article2317498.ece
Neither domino has fallen yet, but I guess Barclays did wobble first.
I picked on HSBC because their American subsidiaries - HFC and Beneficial
Bank are very large sub prime lenders.
pete
wrote:
>On Aug 24, 9:48 pm, Jonathan Bryce <jonat...@localhost.localdomain>
>wrote:
>> Neither domino has fallen yet, but I guess Barclays did wobble first.
>
>The Sub Prime results are in and it looks like the re pricing of risk
>will be in the order of $40b per month over the next 12 months, given
>that NOT all loans will fall over the next question is of course were
>is that spread and which banks have it, but, I must say that it now
>looks manageable.
>>
>> I picked on HSBC because their American subsidiaries - HFC and Beneficial Bank are very large sub prime lenders.
>
>Of course, thats the guessing game, are there loans going to fall over
>as they get re priced, I think my bitch is not on the sub prime as
>such but on the CDOs and the ratings given to them by S&P and Moodys,
>its one thing for some smuck to lose his house and quiet another for
>folk to carry CDOs rated at AAA or even ABB when the re pricing of the
>loan is about to take place, that rating must come down and worst the
>folk using it must have the price of borrowings pushed up.
>
>Now factor in large defaults within a CDO and someone gets stuffed.
talking of "gets stuffed" ..........................
Tony
wrote:
> >> Well it looks likeNorthernRockcould be the first domino to fall.
Yep Northern Rock it was, the BoE put in yesterday