[TV orNotTV] Leno's First 21 Weeks

[PGage]

WK     2-3   4      5      6       7             8          9          10           11        12
M:       5.7   4.3   4.9   4.7   4.6/1.3   4.3/1.3  4/1.2      4.6/1.2  4.5/1.4  4.7/1.3
T:         6.7  6.2   5.8   5.4   6.1/1.8    6.5/2.0 5.7/1.4   6/1.8     4.9/1.9  DARK
W:       6.2  5.7   6.2   5.2   5.0/1.5    4.7/1.3  4.6/1.4  5.2/1.4  5.1/1.6  5.6/1.5
Th:      4.9  4.9   5.2   5.0   4.4/1.6    4.7/1.7  4.6/1.6  4.8/1.6  5.0/1.5  4.7/1.5
F:        5.6  5.3   5.0   6.2   5.1/1.2    4.6/1.2  4.7/1.2  5.1/1.5  3.5/1     4.8/1.4
AVE:   5.8  5.3   5.4   5.3   5.0/1.5    5.0/1.5  4.7/1.4  5.0/1.5  4.6/1.5  5.2/1.5*

WK      13         14          15          16        17         18           19           20            21
M:        4.7/1.3  4.8/1.5  5.8/1.6    3.2/.9     4.8/1.5  4.8/1.6   4.6/1.3   4.3/1.2     3.9/1.1
T:         8.4/2.9   5.2/1.8   5.2/1.5   3.0/.9    6.4/2.2  6.2/1.9   6.3/2.1   6.3/2.0     DARK
W:       4.5/1.3    5.5/1.6   4.6/1.1   4.4/1.3  5.2/1.6  5.4/1.6  4.6/1.2    DARK      4.2/1.2
Th:      5.8/1.3    5.2/1.7    DARK   DARK   4.6/1.4  4.4/1.3  4.5/1.4    4.3/1.2     3.9/1.2
F:        5.8/1.9    5.6/1.4    3.7/1.1  3.4/1.0  5.8/1.4  5.4/1.4  DARK     5.0/1.4     4.5/1.2
AVE:   5.8/1.8    5.2/1.6    4.8/1.4* 3.5/1.0* 5.3/1.6  5.2/1.6 5.0#/1.5* 5.0#/1.4*  4.5/1.3*

Leno is going out with a real whimper - I have this as his lowest rated week of all time (week 16 was all reruns). He has been at or below NBC's self-proclaimed break even point (1.5 in the demo) for the last three weeks. The rumors of canceling the JLS and firing Conan broke January 7 (end of Week 17). At the time I did not recognize the rumors as giving Leno much if any bump - the two weeks before had been atypical holiday weeks, and his Thursday and Friday numbers in the intitial wake of the rumors were comparable to (in some cases lower than) the last non-holiday numbers (Weeks 13 and 14). But looking back now, Week 17 was actually something of a high water mark for the JLS (best week of 2010) and his numbers have gone down steadily since. I should note here that I discovered an error in my spreadsheet in the cells calculating the weekly averages for Week 19 and 20 - this resulted in exaggerating his weekly ratings those weeks. Those numbers are corrected here and marked with a #).

I am not sure what the trend of the last three weeks means for Leno's Ratings when he gets back behind his Tonight Show Desk. It might suggest that all but hard core Lenistos are giving up on him, or it might just mean that those who like but don't love Leno have decided to do other things with their 10:00 hour, knowing they can get Leno again soon at the preferred late night hour. I became convinced after Week 1 that the Jay Leno Show was significantly worse than the Tonight Show with Jay Leno, so the latter explanation seems plausible to me. From what I can gather, Dave has been beating the Conan ratings in the demo, but not by much. Last week, Nightline was #1 in total viewers and tied Dave in the demo (Nightline: 3.9/1.2; Dave 3.7/1.2; Conan(RR) 2.4/1.1). The fact that RR of Conan are so close to Dave in the demo fuels the argument that NBC was foolish to give up on Conan so soon. I still expect Leno to be ahead of Dave, but behind his own previous numbers (once the initial dust settles) when he returns.

I was going to write that that week 21 was Leno's last full week (he will only be on Monday and Tuesday next week) but even that is not true. I must have missed the memo (though now that I think about there may have been a note posted to this effect on TVORNOTTV) that Leno was Dark this Tuesday, I guess to give NBC a fighting chance against the Lost premier. I have again caclulated Leno's weekly average using a recent average number for Tuesday nights. In his final 6 full weeks Leno was dark in one night 6 times - though only once on one of his lowest rated nights (Friday). I would like to have seen what would have happened had NBC decided to at least try going with a JLS 3 nights a week, T-TH. I think that would have gotten them through this season, and maybe even next season (the end of 2-year commitment) without having to screw Conan and embarrass themselves.

Since there are only 2 nights next week I will include the weekly numbers for all 22 weeks, including the first 3 atypical weeks, and that can stand in the archive as the complete ratings record on the Jay Leno Show.

[Tom Wolper]

On Sat, Feb 6, 2010 at 2:04 PM, PGage <pga...@gmail.com> wrote:
>
> I am not sure what the trend of the last three weeks means for Leno's
> Ratings when he gets back behind his Tonight Show Desk. It might suggest
> that all but hard core Lenistos are giving up on him, or it might just mean
> that those who like but don't love Leno have decided to do other things with
> their 10:00 hour, knowing they can get Leno again soon at the preferred late
> night hour.

I don't watch enough NBC to get a feel for their promo spots and I
don't live in a top ten market for media advertisements on billboards
and buses, But I am guessing that the promotional budget for the JLS
is zero. And the Olympics will be full of promos for the old/new
Tonight Show, so that could drive ratings.

Tom

[televisiongirl]

On Sat, Feb 6, 2010 at 7:48 PM, Tom Wolper <two...@gmail.com> wrote:

 And the Olympics will be full of promos for the old/new

Tonight Show, so that could drive ratings.

But they have so much other stuff to promote - their return to 10PM programming, Seinfeld's new show, "Parenthood," their low-rated critic faves like "Chuck" and "Parks and Recreation" - you wonder how much time they can turn over to Jay's return to late night.

TVG 

[Joe Coughlin]

NBC has said that there will be a campaign to tout Jay's return to what used to be "Tonight", but that it will be far more low-key than their campaign for "The Jay Leno Show" and be tongue-in-cheek because of all the controversy.
 

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[PGage]

On Sat, Feb 6, 2010 at 9:35 PM, Joe Coughlin <inturn...@gmail.com> wrote:

On Sun, Feb 7, 2010 at 12:30 AM, televisiongirl <televis...@gmail.com> wrote:

On Sat, Feb 6, 2010 at 7:48 PM, Tom Wolper <two...@gmail.com> wrote:

 And the Olympics will be full of promos for the old/new

Tonight Show, so that could drive ratings.

But they have so much other stuff to promote - their return to 10PM programming, Seinfeld's new show, "Parenthood," their low-rated critic faves like "Chuck" and "Parks and Recreation" - you wonder how much time they can turn over to Jay's return to late night.

NBC has said that there will be a campaign to tout Jay's return to what used to be "Tonight", but that it will be far more low-key than their campaign for "The Jay Leno Show" and be tongue-in-cheek because of all the controversy.

Leno's return almost promotes itself - and I agree with TVG that NBC really has to use the Olympics to try to get some buzz around their primetime shows that have signs of life. They need to make sure people know when he is coming back ("Jay is back where you are used to seeing him, at 11:35 after the Olympics") but go easy on the hype. While I strongly felt Leno should be allowed to rest and maybe work on new material when the Olympiad was going to be a break for the JLS, now that he is prepping a return to the Tonight Show maybe they should find ways to get him on site in Vancouver and have him do jokes (including making fun of himself). Vancouver is in the same time zone as LA, and only about a two and half hour flight.

I was 100% convinced that as soon as NBC announced they were getting rid of Conan, Leno would change his self-pitying, defensive tone and start in on the self-depreciation. It seems obviously to be the best way to reclaim his likable, nice guy image. But then he spent two weeks digging even deeper into self pity and Conan-bashing, culminating with this sit down with O. I take it he has been pretty quiet about the fiasco since then (I have only been able to stomach checking out one post-Oprah monologue). But now I think he really needs to poke fun at himself - maybe go up to Vancouver and do a bit where he assumes he is taking over as Host from Bob Costas or something. But (a caution here) he has to really be making fun of himself - not ham fistedly making fun of people who are making fun of him.

[David Bruggeman]

I've already seen a heavy rotation of Parenthood and The Marriage Ref promos (while I don't watch much NBC, I'm frequently watching USA).

I still think The Marriage Ref is awful, though the emcee appears to be the best thing about this and will do his damnedest to save this piece of crap.  Looks like both Wife Swap and Trading Spouses handle the same subject better and without ridiculous conflicts and sub-Newlywed Game jokes.  And really, should Alec Baldwin be within 100 miles of this show?

David

---

From: Joe Coughlin <inturn...@gmail.com>

[JW]

> I am not sure what the trend of the last three weeks means for Leno's
> Ratings when he gets back behind his Tonight Show Desk. It might suggest
> that all but hard core Lenistos are giving up on him, or it might just mean
> that those who like but don't love Leno have decided to do other things with
> their 10:00 hour, knowing they can get Leno again soon at the preferred late
> night hour.

I have the sense that the JLS is going out with a whimper. I saw an
act and a half Friday; it was a normal monologue with a couple of
jokes about the value of NBC contracts, and Ross the Intern at the
Super Bowl.

> From what I can gather, Dave has been
> beating the Conan ratings in the demo, but not by much. Last week, Nightline
> was #1 in total viewers and tied Dave in the demo (Nightline: 3.9/1.2; Dave
> 3.7/1.2; Conan(RR) 2.4/1.1). The fact that RR of Conan are so close to Dave
> in the demo fuels the argument that NBC was foolish to give up on Conan so
> soon. I still expect Leno to be ahead of Dave, but behind his own previous
> numbers (once the initial dust settles) when he returns.

I've been surprised at how pedestrian the Late Shows have been this
week. Maybe they've decided that they're not likely to improve the
ratings at this point, so they're just going to keep doing what they
do.

[Dave Sikula]

On Feb 7, 2:48 am, JW <redbu...@gmail.com> wrote:

> I've been surprised at how pedestrian the Late Shows have been this
> week. Maybe they've decided that they're not likely to improve the
> ratings at this point, so they're just going to keep doing what they
> do.

Wonder if the commercial had anything to do with that. Dave
purposefully keeping things calm. Regardless, great idea. Too bad
there was no room for Conan.

--Dave Sikula

[Wesley McGee]

On Sat, Feb 6, 2010 at 2:04 PM, PGage <pga...@gmail.com> wrote:

I was going to write that that week 21 was Leno's last full week (he will only be on Monday and Tuesday next week) but even that is not true. I must have missed the memo (though now that I think about there may have been a note posted to this effect on TVORNOTTV) that Leno was Dark this Tuesday, I guess to give NBC a fighting chance against the Lost premier.

And we know now that the Tuesday night off allowed him time for that surprise Super Bowl cameo. . .
--
Wesley McGee
http://www.ambivi.com
http://sterlingnorth.vox.com