The Case of the Disappearing Viewers

[Bob in Jersey]

It don't matter which platform you're looking at, everybody's numbers are down; some blame Idol, of course.

A top researcher: “How many more people can be out smelling the roses this year?” Also, an ex-NBC brass admits to liking a certain AMC show.

Bill Carter is on it, boss...

http://goo.gl/WKny7



--
BOB

[Tom Wolper]

But Carter really isn't on it. He just throws out some numbers and
interviews TV executives who say they don't know what it means. And
since they don't know what it means they won't make any adjustments so
they will either hope the trends suddenly reverse themselves or their
product will continue to lose value until collapse becomes inevitable.

There seems to be a cognitive dissonance over the years. Each year
there are reports that ratings are down, especially for the money
demographics, and each May advertisers put up more upfront money to
provide the way for the current system to continue with radical
change.

[PGage]

I am not sure if Bob was being sarcastic in his initial post; I am going to disagree a bit with Tom here and defend Carter a bit. His piece would be stronger if he would have bothered to give us just a little bit of longitudinal data about viewing patterns (say, live and DVR ratings for the same 4 week period for broadcast and cable over the last 5 years). But if you read the article, he does basically address all of the relevant issues. Yes, viewing has been in decline for a while (including 14 straight quarters). But in the past most of the broadcast decline has been soaked up by cable increases. One of the unique features of this spring is that cable viewing is also in decline. Carter also notes that there is daylight savings time every year, and the declines seem in excess of what might be expected from good weather.

Carter does suggest a real explanation for the decline - DVR and other time-shifting mechanisms are finally maturing. If watching a DVRs show was itself a show, it would have been the second rated program last week, behind only AI. Moreover, since AI has had a huge viewer decline, there has been an associated decline in live viewing those viewers would have done of other shows.

Carter also quotes one ad guy as saying these numbers will have a real downward effect on ad prices this year. Thus it is possible that we are at, or at least very near, a real shift in how ad rates will be set - and maybe they will get serious about counting DVR views in ratings.

[Bob in Jersey]

The only sarcasm here is the quiet kind inspired by Mother Jersey, whose prolonged convalescence is restricting my viewing ability even further than it already is... her habits include excessive "NCIS" repeats on USA. I'd have to go upstairs even to watch the IronPigs, except for those morning games.

There's not much to report about her, other than the revolving door through which her visiting caregivers arrive and depart. Her MD hasn't said much of anything, and likely won't till the one-year anniversary of her first trip to the hospital in July.



--
BOB

[televisiongirl]

On Mon, Apr 23, 2012 at 7:23 PM, PGage <pga...@gmail.com> wrote:

Carter does suggest a real explanation for the decline - DVR and other time-shifting mechanisms are finally maturing. 

But that is the flaw in his story.  He's explaining season/series lows for programs like "Modern Family" and "Community" for live plus same day ratings but then explaining that DVR playback is good for almost a five rating most nights.  Every week they have a new episode, "Modern Family" is the #1 program in live plus seven day lift.  They add five million viewers, the adults 18-49 gains are huge.  Their live plus three ratings gains are huge as well.  

He's knocking programs for not being watched live plus same day because people are watching their DVRs.  When the live plus seven numbers are in for the entire season, I'd be interested to see what the declines are for the non-"Idol" programs.  "Idol" may be finally showing some age but I'm guessing "Modern Family" and other popular programs have year to year ratings changes in line with what has happened in the past.

And as Joe Flint noted (https://twitter.com/#!/JBFlint/status/194513807471681537), Carter's done this story in the past.  VCRs were killing TV in 1990:

http://www.nytimes.com/1990/04/30/business/the-media-business-television-are-there-fewer-viewers-networks-challenge-nielsen.html

TVG