Portland's next LRT project - at a glance (Oregonian, February 11, 2010)
Jerry Schneider
7.3 miles long, 10 stations + 1 in the future
Ridership forecast: 27,400 daily trips (probably boardings)
Total estimated cost: $1,417 billion, Federal share $850 million
(60%) - aren't you glad to help?
Most expensive component: Willamette River Bridge: $110 million
Largest local funders: Lottery bonds - $250 m; Metro Regional gov -
$72 m; City of Portland - $30 m; TriMet Transit $30 m; Clackamus
County - $25 m; City of Milwaukie $5 m; unspecified in article $155 m.
Construction period: 2011-2015
- Jerry Schneider -
Innovative Transportation Technologies
http://faculty.washington.edu/jbs/itrans
Jerry Roane
That is crazy! What is a lottery bond? Is that a bond they sell against future lottery money? The lottery is pure and simple a moron tax but when the economy tanks the morons are the first to have no spare cash so won't the bonds just default? Maybe they are called lottery bonds because getting the investment back is like playing the lottery. Your retirement fund buys them and you end up with a worthless piece of paper just like the real lottery instead of any income in your old age. .
It is fitting that morons would buy Portland rail with moron bucks. Of the 850 million dollars of federal tax money, how much is donated (extracted under threat of gun) by farmers in Kansas and Nebraska? Shouldn't farmers in Kansas and Nebraska get light rail too in equal proportion?
Jerry
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Dennis Manning
Jerry Roane
I did some more study on why Portland has an affinity for little bicycles and why they resonate with Washington DC money givers. There seems to be a naked bike ride they do and they had the first openly homosexual (male on male) mayor. This money is being passed out to the constituents. It has very little to do with mobility. The naked bike ride looks more like a men's locker room than 800 randomly chosen citizens. Portland is not even a metropolitan city. It is in a metropolitan area but the city is only 1/2 million.
Jerry Roane
Jerry Schneider
>Dennis
>
>I did some more study on why Portland has an affinity for little
>bicycles and why they resonate with Washington DC money
>givers. There seems to be a naked bike ride they do and they had
>the first openly homosexual (male on male) mayor. This money is
>being passed out to the constituents. It has very little to do with
>mobility. The naked bike ride looks more like a men's locker room
>than 800 randomly chosen citizens. Portland is not even a
>metropolitan city. It is in a metropolitan area but the city is
>only 1/2 million.
Portland has learned how to play the grant-getting game with the Feds
over the past couple of decades. They are getting strong support from
their members of Congress as well as strong support from a wide range
of local elected officials, the citizens of Portland and the OR legislature.
They have learned how to do the paper-work, jump through the federal
hoops and treat the visiting FTA officials well. I doubt that they
are making much progress in solving their growing congestion problems
but they sure are winning the grant-getting game. And they are making
streetcars and have sold 12 of them already - with a potentially huge
market opening up in the U.S.
Unless Bombardier jumps in and offers a "better" product for less money.
Kirston Henderson
>
> Portland has learned how to play the grant-getting game with the Feds
> over the past couple of decades. They are getting strong support from
> their members of Congress as well as strong support from a wide range
> of local elected officials, the citizens of Portland and the OR legislature.
>
> They have learned how to do the paper-work, jump through the federal
> hoops and treat the visiting FTA officials well. I doubt that they
> are making much progress in solving their growing congestion problems
> but they sure are winning the grant-getting game. And they are making
> streetcars and have sold 12 of them already - with a potentially huge
> market opening up in the U.S.
> Unless Bombardier jumps in and offers a "better" product for less money.
>
Kirston Henderson
MegaRail® Transportation Systems, Inc.
Jerry Schneider
Not sure how to define "giant of pork" but they are unified,
aggressive, know how to get
the job done, are capable of making their case personally to the
relevant FTA officials,
and being Dems and unified on this subject does help these days. And,
DeFazio is chair
of the most relevant transportation subcommittee in the House.
Having two very interested Senators that are Dems helps as well. This
project was approved first by
the Metro Council in 2003, the legislature put up the $250 m in
lottery bonds in 2007 and
the application for federal matching funds was submitted in 2008.
Construction is to
begin in 2011.
Jerry Roane
"Lottery Revenue is said to be down around $400 Million dollars" This quote was from 2009. I can imagine "lottery" money is down even more now that the economy has tanked. They really are talking about the industry the mob ran for so many years. Video poker and video lottery -- mindless sitting in front of a machine hitting a single red button. If they are matching federal funds with dreams of video game poker coming back they are committing fraud. From the sad sacks I saw playing video poker for hours on end, my guess is they all died off sitting on those stools. The demographic was old, female, fat, ugly and lazy spending their dead husband's remaining wealth one quarter at a time. With gambling revenue down $400,000,000.00 it would appear maybe video poker is not the panacea it once was for states. In the beginning it was taboo to go gamble now it is just boring and something you do waiting to kick.
A guy that works by me just came back from Vegas and he reported the gambling community has been devastated by the economy and Obama's constant digs about going to Vegas as something rich bankers do with bailout money.
"Perception and reputation are sensitive issues for Sin City as it struggles to find footing amid a two-year meltdown of foreclosures, bankruptcies and unemployment. Tourism is the Silver State's backbone, and several lawmakers said they were shocked that Obama singled out Las Vegas again after commenting last February that bailed-out banks shouldn't go to Las Vegas using taxpayer money." from http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100203/ap_on_go_pr_wh/us_obama_las_vegas
Unemployment is 13% there so maybe lottery money in Oregon might track the downturn in the Las Vegas economy. The federal transportation guys are not smart passing out money based on fake money for matching funds. They need to ask to see the money that is being matched and not be in another financial meltdown selling junk bonds to prop up their failed ideas on big box transit for Portland. Where is the attorney general?
Jerry Roane
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Jerry Schneider
>
>Unemployment is 13% there so maybe lottery money in Oregon might
>track the downturn in the Las Vegas economy. The federal
>transportation guys are not smart passing out money based on fake
>money for matching funds. They need to ask to see the money that is
>being matched and not be in another financial meltdown selling junk
>bonds to prop up their failed ideas on big box transit for
>Portland. Where is the attorney general?
It was the legislature that approved the sale of lottery bonds in
2007. Perhaps they didn't see the financial mess coming at them.
If the lottery revenues are not judged by the rating agencies to be
sufficient to make the bond payments, then their rating would not be
very good and savvy investors would not purchase them
(theoretically). If they are insured (like the LV monorail bonds),
maybe the rating would be better. Of course, the federal money is not
actually in the bank yet (so far as I know) so maybe the feds will
decide not to go through with the project, if they can wiggle out of
it. I suspect they have more between their ears than sawdust.
Kirston Henderson
> Having two very interested Senators that are Dems helps as well. This
> project was approved first by
> the Metro Council in 2003, the legislature put up the $250 m in
> lottery bonds in 2007 and
> the application for federal matching funds was submitted in 2008.
> Construction is to
> begin in 2011.
>
Could you please tell us what "lottery bonds" are.
Jerry Schneider
>on 2/14/10 3:37 PM, Jerry Schneider at j...@peak.org wrote:
>
> > Having two very interested Senators that are Dems helps as well. This
> > project was approved first by
> > the Metro Council in 2003, the legislature put up the $250 m in
> > lottery bonds in 2007 and
> > the application for federal matching funds was submitted in 2008.
> > Construction is to
> > begin in 2011.
> >
>Jerry,
>
> Could you please tell us what "lottery bonds" are.
They are bonds that are paid off with revenues from the state-run
lottery. Also known as "revenue bonds". So far as I know.
Kirston Henderson
>> Jerry,
>>
>> Could you please tell us what "lottery bonds" are.
>
> They are bonds that are paid off with revenues from the state-run
> lottery. Also known as "revenue bonds". So far as I know.
>
That is a little different from my understanding. Revenue bonds, as I
generally know them, are bonds that are repaid from revenue produced by the
toll road or guideway system for which they are issued.
Kirston Henderson
MegaRail®
Jerry Schneider
You might be correct. I will try to find out more about them. I do
think that the legislature
decides how to allocate the revenue from the Oregon lottery, periodically.
Jerry Schneider
Here is the law that describes the meaning and use of Oregon lottery
bonds - they are used
to fund lots of types of infrastructure projects, as directed by the
legislature.
http://www.leg.state.or.us/99orlaws/sess0700.dir/0702ses.html
Jerry Roane
Selling two birds in a bush. With the current facts on the ground of dropping lottery income by hundreds of millions, selling bonds against that dropping income is irresponsible and buying over priced big box transit with the open scam is even worse. Has the state done any cost analysis on how much public support gets spent on lottery buying? If the real numbers were known I would bet that much of the gain is taken from the mouths of children literally. The last three lottery tickets I saw were bought by poor people. Judging from the WalMart apparel on the last women I saw playing video poker or Wheel of Fortune video game I am guessing those women were poor or at least low or fixed income. Selling future income derived from these WalMart snappy dressers is shameful for the dignity of a state of this country. How low do states have to go to pay for what they need?
On a much more positive thought--- I am looking for the group's thoughts on selling lifetime subscriptions to a guideway network. Using the on-star or satellite radio business model it could be possible to price out a one time lifetime fee for guideway use. The guarantee would allow early adopters the right to free guideway access for life with a large up front single payment. I think the radio price is around $300 instead of $10 per month forever. Several TV viewing or video game services used this approach to early sales. The advantage of course is taking advantage of the time value of money. If the guideway was built with up front money the lack of interest paid against that network would be reduced. I know the infrastructure world runs on pure debt but this would be the polar opposite by buying the network outright with early dollars and interest free. This is only possible with low cost approaches unless the one time payment was a few years income like it would be if they were buying big box solutions. Any thoughts?
Jerry Roane