Living Green Expo.

[Richard Gronning]

Here in Minnesota it has stopped snowing (the mosquitoes are already out) and we're starting to see presentations about ecology. The Living Green Expo is one of these events. This event is held each year at the Mn Fair Grounds. This year they tripled the size of the event. As usual, CPRT had a table and we were assigned to the transportation section. Across from us was Chevrolet. The Chevy Volt was a very popular draw with people attending the Expo. $41K isn't cheap! The size and styling are nearly identical to another of their hybrids, their Cruze at $19K. I asked the person selling the Volt and Cruze if this could be justified. He calculated for a while and came back with, "At $4.00 a gallon, the break-even figure would be 125,000 miles." I don't think that he took into account that the Volt should have dramatically better maintenance.

REGO www.regoelectric.com    is a company that upgrades regular hybrids to plug-ins. They were two tables down from us. For a Prius the average figure is $4500 and they say that average mileage goes from 45 mpg to 75 mpg per day. They have a spectacular 10 KV package that extends all electric range beyond 100 miles. It's $12,000.

The difference this year from other years was remarkable.

• Representatives from Metro Transit visited our table... and stayed a while.... and talked to us. That's a first! They told us to contact a bicycle organization for joint lobbying efforts. (We did!) We have very similar goals and messages. I was surprised at how helpful Metro Transit was.  

•  Transit for Livable communities had a table next to ours. They visited us and they were also very positive. This was also a first.
  
•  Dr J Edward Anderson helped out for @ 5 hrs on Sunday. That also was a first. He helped quite a bit.
• Around 2:00 PM an enormous person showed up and started talking to us. He stated that he was very interested in PRT. He knew quite a bit about PRT already. He stated that he was hoping to start a development S. of down town Mpls and use PRT. He said that his name was Carl and he represented a group of investors. I looked at him (Particularly his size) and asked, "Are you Carl Eller of the Vikings?" He laughed and said, "Yes I am!" He is president of the Retired Players Association.

It was a good event for us.

Dick

[Jack Slade]

Did Ken Avidor show up, or have a table?  Or maybe he was visiting his Mother at the Chicken Ranch for Mother's Day.   Jack Slade --- On Tue, 5/10/11, Richard Gronning <rgro...@gofast.am> wrote:

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[Richard Gronning]

Ken showed up at the CPRT table that we had for the U.M CTS career day and wrote up what was actually a respectable account. He didn't visit us this year at Living Green. Maybe he too is changing...

I had lunch with a person named Ken Pentel last year. Ken P. had told me that Ken Avidor had helped him a great deal in his run for governor on the Green Party ticket. Ken A. broke contact with the Green Party some years ago. Avidor has also been a strong bicycle advocate. Ken P. asked me about the reality of PRT. I told him about the efforts at Heathrow and Masdar. He said, "Well then PRT is a reality. Then why does Ken A. persist in this effort?" Perhaps Ken P. has talked to Ken A.

Dick

[Dennis Manning]

Dick:

 

What a positive and interesting report!

 

Last week I was reviewing Catie's book "Innovation and Public Policy".  It was getting me down realizing how many of the barriers to PRT she talked about are still here after 30 plus years. In fact some of the barriers have grown larger. However, as your email illustrates there are many positive changes for PRT development since Catie wrote in 1979.

 

There is a rising awareness level that business as usual isn't going to get it done. In 1979 the word sustainable wasn't used much. The world wasn't much concerned with what happens when the Chinese and other emerging economies begin buying autos by the millions. We had had an oil crunch before 1979 but the price of oil quickly retreated to what? under $15 I think. That's not likely to happen again. Toss is worries about global warming, still more congestion, and the nearly universal (at least in the US) mind set among transportation planners that TOD is the way to go, and smaller cars are part of it. Another shift is the perception in the public eye of the power of computers and what they can do. A lot more people have the vision of robocars. Still another move is simply the EV push. In the public eye it must surely be a smaller step from EVs to PRT than from ICEs to PRT.

 

In 1979 we were licking our wounds from the Morgantown set back. Now we are holding our breath watching real PRT developments at Heathrow and Masdar with interest in PRT jumping by leaps and bounds in places as diverse as India, Sweden, Korea, and Turkey.

 

If just seems like the field for PRT is far more fertile than it was 30 years ago. Your conversation with Metro Transit was perhaps a small sign that the iceberg is melting a little.

 

(Anecdotally I work with Fresno's main citizen bicycle advocate. He doesn't think much of PRT, but at least he has agreed that he won't oppose it in any way. I twit him once in awhile and show him a picture of a PRT passenger with his bike.)

 

Carl Eller having an interest in PRT! That's a doozy!

 

Yes, spring is here.

 

Dennis

 

From: Richard Gronning

Sent: Tuesday, May 10, 2011 8:07 AM

To: transport-...@googlegroups.com

Subject: [t-i] Living Green Expo.

[Roy Reynolds]

Good thing this maintenance isn't outsourced -- the unions would claim it would be worse.


SF Muni Buses: 70% Have Violations

May 10, 2011, 02:32 AM

Do not feel safe on a SF Muni. They are dangerous.  That is, if the driver shows up and the buses run.

"In the most recent safety compliance report of Muni’s bus fleet, 70 percent of the vehicles inspected were cited for violations of some sort. The infractions ranged from corroded batteries to defective stopping systems to broken blinkers."

Did you expect government to have at least a major of safe vehicles?  Anyone one of the 70% get into an accident and the city will lose the lawsuit.

When Toyota had the cars with problems, the firm recalled all of them.  Why not the SF Muni?  Did the riders sign a waiver that if in an accident they will not sue?

Government is mismanaged and/or corrupted.  This is a prime example of why government should not even own a transportation system.

[Richard Gronning]

Hi Dennis,

I was able to meet Catie for the first time in SJ. I found her absolutely charming. When the transportation guy leveled a tirade against her, she felt sorry for him instead of becoming angry. The book will be a classic and a must-read in the business world some day. I mentioned to her that I (also) thought that her book was more relevant today than it was when it was written.

Many Republicans make fun of our president's slogan about change, but things are changing. (Of course he isn't responsible for all of the change.) Here in Minnesota, the change in so-called "Green" organizations could be a result of Mn DOT's efforts. The public and non-profits think that they better be aware of developments if they want to keep their jobs. I'm reading an article in The Atlantic Monthly about "green coal." See, http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2010/12/dirty-coal-clean-future/8307/   I'm not through with it so I haven't reached any conclusions yet. There is a lot of number crunching so far in the article. That makes it relevant. Conservation and innovation can make the figures look better.

Just cutting down on carbon emissions can make a big difference. The Chevy Volt is a development that should have been there with the first hybrids. The add-ons could also make a big difference, but I wonder about the pollution caused by the manufacturing process of the batteries.

Living Green also had another interesting attraction; we could get a ride in a Tesla! We could ride in the Volt too.

Bicycles should be thought of as transportation and not just recreation in the U.S. Most of the world looks at bicycles like that. Like the automobile, bicycles can't be used by everybody. People with some disabilities can't use bikes. Still, bikes should be used far more than they are. I rode in a recumbent with a racing faring a few years back. Ordinarily I can maintain 18 mph for quite a distance with a good bike. With this bike I could seem to average 29 mph. 80% of the resistance to a bicycler is wind.

Dick

[Mr_Grant]

Carl Eller might require the new taller version of the Vectus pod.
I saw a Volt parked in my neighborhood last month, and I have to say it's the ugliest car in a long time. It looks like a Camry and a Pontiac Aztek had offspring.
I hope you guys have stopped using the placard that mentions You don't ride with strangers, or words to that effect. So easy to misconstrue.

[Jack Slade]

I was pleased to notice that some of the PRT developements in Delhi are being proposed as a build/operate/transfer,  which keeps maintenance in the hands of the developer.  Of course, I want the  "Transfer" to mean transfer to my Company, after I have paid back all of the initial building funds.   Jack Slade --- On Tue, 5/10/11, Roy Reynolds <roy.re...@prtstrategies.com> wrote:

From: Roy Reynolds <roy.re...@prtstrategies.com> Subject: [t-i] SF Muni Buses: 70% Have Violations To: transport-...@googlegroups.com

[Dennis Manning]

Big coal always sings the same song - renewables can't possibly carry the load for so many years that we have to spend billions to clean up coal a little bit so we can kill our selves a little slower. True it will take an enormous effort for a meaningful movement to renewables. What the author doesn't say is it would also take a humongous long term effort to partially clean the coal. I'm not so hot for "clean coal" as the writer. Plus I think if all the external costs of burning coal are accounted for wind and solar are cheaper now. Tax coal and build renewables.

[Kirston Henderson]

On May 10, 2011, at 4:11 PM, Jack Slade wrote:

I was pleased to notice that some of the PRT developements in Delhi are being proposed as a build/operate/transfer,  which keeps maintenance in the hands of the developer.  Of course, I want the  "Transfer" to mean transfer to my Company, after I have paid back all of the initial building funds.   Jack Slade

I fear that you are in for a disappointment.  The "transfer" after an initial period of time means that ownership is transferred to the city, etc.

Kirston Henderson

MegaRail® Transportation Systems

[Jack Slade]

In Delhi, I think you are right. If I do it here, I do it my way. What would a City want with a system that is working well, but for which they have no trained people to continue operation, and no source of future parts.

If I read the motives of City Politicians right, they wish they were out of the transportation business. It is a constant loss-leader, and they heven't a clue about what they are doing. This way, they have their money back, the City has a system that keeps working, and 30 years from now there will be no arguments about going back to oil guzzlers.

Also, if I have expanded the system (using profits) to about a 2,000 mole network, I can give them back their initial 50 miles (about a half-billion bucks worth) and the rest is mine. Cheers.

Jack Slade

--- On Wed, 5/11/11, Kirston Henderson <kirston....@megarail.com> wrote:

> From: Kirston Henderson <kirston....@megarail.com>
> Subject: Re: [t-i] SF Muni Buses: 70% Have Violations
> To: transport-...@googlegroups.com

[Jack Slade]

Did you find out if the Volt has a power recovery system to save some of the energy otherwise wasted during braking, and if so, what they claim for recovery efficiency?

Jack Slade

--- On Tue, 5/10/11, Richard Gronning <rgro...@gofast.am> wrote:

> From: Richard Gronning <rgro...@gofast.am>
> Subject: [t-i] Living Green Expo.

[Richard Gronning]

Yes, they do have a brake recovery system, and they threw out a figure
for it. Sorry, but I don't remember it. A figure like that would be on
the high end anyway and not completely trustworthy. It should be on some
web site. I should have asked if their other "normal" hybrids have a
recovery system as well, but I didn't.

Dick

[Rob Means]

Dick,

I agree with your statement:

Bicycles should be thought of as transportation and not just recreation
in the U.S. Most of the world looks at bicycles like that. Like the
automobile, bicycles can't be used by everybody. People with some
disabilities can't use bikes.

And would add the recumbent trikes equipped with electric motors extend
practical bicycle transportation to many folks with disabilities. For
example: http://www.electric-bikes.com/manuals/E-4/x3asm.html

--
If I can be of further assistance, please contact me.

Rob Means, Electro Ride Bikes and Scooters
408-262-8975 rob....@electric-bikes.com
1421 Yellowstone Ave., Milpitas, CA 95035-6913
Discover cycling that's Easy, Safe, Fast - and FUN!
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

[Richard Gronning]

Rob;

I learned about PRT at a Human Powered Vehicle (HPV) meeting in 1994.
At that time the question was, "How do we fit a recumbent/HPV into a PRT
pod?"

Minnesota opened a 4-lane bike highway-freeway some years ago from down
town Minneapolis to Minnetonka. We can really sail along with an HPV.

Dick

[Richard Gronning]

Carl is BIG! He didn't seem to show any fat either.

I like the Volt's MPG though.

Communitarianism has its merits. I think that the forcing of people to
ride together can be counterproductive and authoritarian. PRT should
broaden the goal of feeling that we live in a community.
The line is effective with gals who feel threatened by people on the bus
and LRT. If we can chose our fellow riders, the list of people that we
feel comfortable with should expand greatly. Bicycling can do that too,
but not as well. It's hard to commute on a bike and talk to another
bicycler.

[Kirston Henderson]

on 5/11/11 11:17 AM, Richard Gronning at rgro...@gofast.am wrote:

> Carl is BIG! He didn't seem to show any fat either.
>
> I like the Volt's MPG though.
>
> Communitarianism has its merits. I think that the forcing of people to
> ride together can be counterproductive and authoritarian. PRT should
> broaden the goal of feeling that we live in a community.
> The line is effective with gals who feel threatened by people on the bus
> and LRT. If we can chose our fellow riders, the list of people that we
> feel comfortable with should expand greatly. Bicycling can do that too,
> but not as well. It's hard to commute on a bike and talk to another
> bicycler.
>

You still have to have a fuel source to generate the electrical energy
to charge the Volt batteries. It may not be gasoline, it is usually coal or
gas in this country and often oil in some countries.

It also seems that I recall from my youth, that it is really difficult
to go anywhere on a bike.

Kirston Henderson

[WALTER BREWER]

To say nothing of missing back seats for dates!

Or isn't that needed any more?

Walt Brewer

[Richard Gronning]

Right on both points!

While I read about electric-generating roads, algae-as-fuel, PV
collectors that are cheap and double the efficiency, I can't buy/use
them as yet. Still, coal generated electricity is cheaper (I suppose
that it's a domestic product) but carbon emissions are there and
Republicans fight a carbon tax. If there was a carbon tax, according to
power plant managers, everything would change.

Minneapolis has just been voted the most bike-friendly city in the U.S.
There are a number of bike routes in Mpls that a person could actually
commute with. In traffic, its another matter.

Dick

[Richard Gronning]

Some comments on that at Living Green...
But I won't.

[Jerry Roane]

Kirston

You have to place numbers on your statement or it is of no value.  The electrical load for a Volt is very low while in all-electric mode.  While in gas mode it is a below average for its size gas user.  The Volt was designed to dispel the myths about electric power and in my mind they over did the power of the engine.  They were not as interested in total energy efficiency as they were afraid of the public reaction to a car that was in any way sluggish.  They accomplished their goal of not being branded sluggish but the trade-off was too big of an engine with weight compounding and fuel efficiency while in gasoline mode.  The electric power provided in the middle of the night is on idling generating equipment and for now comes basically for free.  I know it is hard to imagine such waste in the electric generation business but that is the reality today.  If more Volts and Leafs hit the streets past the approx. 40,000 sold out then we would have a different conversation about power of these more traditional rubber tires cars slugging it out in traffic.  Our guideway solutions are superior for efficiency but the Volt and the Leaf are one step in the right direction rather than backwards.   IMHO

Jerry Roane 

[Kirston Henderson]

on 5/11/11 3:11 PM, Jerry Roane at jerry...@gmail.com wrote:

If more Volts and Leafs hit the streets past the approx. 40,000 sold out then we would have a different conversation about power of these more traditional rubber tires cars slugging it out in traffic.

   Unless a lot more than that are sold, the entire electric car exercise will have been just that, an exercise to allow the car companies to look "green."  My comment was based upon the assumption that large numbers would be in use and then, those generating plants would be required to burn significantly more fuel to recharge the batteries and that fuel must come from somewhere. By the way, if my wife used one, she would be plugging it into charge during the peak of afternoon power use.  Not all of them are going to be recharging at night, especially if recharge stations are provided at employee parking lots, etc.

Kirston Henderson

[Richard Gronning]

On 5/11/2011 4:11 PM, Jerry Roane wrote:
> You have to place numbers on your statement or it is of no value.

Complicated! If you only do 15 miles to work, it's an electric vehicle.
It'll go 25-40 miles on a charge. The price would be what you pay per KW
Hr. The rate without electricity being counted would be; 70 miles per
day - 90 mpg. 200 miles per day - 60 mpg.

> The electrical load for a Volt is very low while in all-electric
> mode. While in gas mode it is a below average for its size gas user.

This isn't how it works. It's always in the electric mode. The IC engine
only charges up the batteries. This means that ICE is either off, or
running at its most efficient speed. This translates to high efficiency.

> The Volt was designed to dispel the myths about electric power and in
> my mind they over did the power of the engine.

I have no proof, but I think that you're right.

> They were not as interested in total energy efficiency as they were
> afraid of the public reaction to a car that was in any way sluggish.

Electric motors have amazing torque from zero rpm. From what people were
saying at the Expo, this vehicle isn't sluggish.

> Our guideway solutions are superior for efficiency but the Volt and
> the Leaf are one step in the right direction rather than backwards.

I believe that.

Dick

[Richard Gronning]

On 5/11/2011 4:23 PM, Kirston Henderson wrote:
>
> Unless a lot more than that are sold, the entire electric car
> exercise will have been just that, an exercise to allow the car
> companies to look "green."

You're right. It'll sell in California where people can afford it. Maybe
to some liberals in MN and MA. At $41,000 it isn't cheap. If gas hit $7,
it would be cars of choice.

> My comment was based upon the assumption that large numbers would be
> in use and then, those generating plants would be required to burn
> significantly more fuel to recharge the batteries and that fuel must
> come from somewhere.
> By the way, if my wife used one, she would be plugging it into charge
> during the peak of afternoon power use. Not all of them are going to
> be recharging at night, especially if recharge stations are provided
> at employee parking lots, etc.

The thought occurred to me that the price of the Volt was high, but it
was set to see if it would sell. The price would cover some of the
development cost even if it didn't sell all that well. It would be like
a new computer or chip. The price would fall dramatically if there was a
market. At $19K the Cruze looked almost identical. It runs like the
present modes of hybrids and doesn't get the mileage that the Volt does.
If the Volt sells even a bit, the price could fall by half by 2012, or
so I reason.

Dick

[Jerry Roane]

Kirston

What was told in the movie "What is the Electric Car"  that I was invited to the premiere last night in Austin is that even if all cars were electric that the night time generating capability that is not used today is enough to charge them.  The misconceptions in the public mind are based on the propaganda they have been fed for decades.  Oil and gas have deep deep pockets and they are not afraid of using that power.  Truth takes a back seat.  Just run the numbers.  

Example a Leaf has a guessed at Cd of .32 and a frontal area of guessing again 25 square feet.  Let guess the Volt in the Cruze configuration (not the super cool concept vehicle they never produced) is the same Cd but a square foot smaller frontal area.

hp to go 60 mph Volt 3781 pounds 21.6 hp

hp to go 60 mph Leaf 3500 pounds 21.9 hp

average and convert to kw >>  16.23  The daily miles of 40 miles (US average assume 40 mph avg speed) gives 16.23 kwh or $1.62 worth of electricity or $50 a month.  My electric bill runs much higher than this for my house and because my house only uses electricity around peak that leaves plenty of electricity for cars on off peak.  

To drive this further all the cars for 2011 are sold and you cannot buy one.  For 2012 the Cd will tend to get better and they may shave the stupid rear view mirrors off.  Lets do that math for just one since they are so incredibly close to each other:

hp to go 60 mph Volt 3781 pounds  21.3 hp

Eventually by the time the market embraces electrics they will be more aerodynamic and have a smaller frontal area every year as they need to get more range at an affordable price.  All this progress toward TriTrack will mean that the power generation industry will be able to sell full power 24/7 and not build any new power plants.  This is fundamentally based on the fact that they are so horribly inefficient today.  

Please challenge any of these numbers you think need modification.  TriTrack with its Cd of .07 and frontal area of 14 square feet uses 2.1hp at measly 60 mph or 1.56 kw or two hair dryers on medium.  You can't tell me that the power industry will notice an hour of 1.56 kw for your daily travel.  

Jerry Roane

PS please dispute what you can of this calculation because it is important.    

[Michael Weidler]

That is way cool regarding the response at the event this year. I do have one nit to pick....the Cruze is not a hybrid unless something has changed recently.

--- On Tue, 5/10/11, Richard Gronning <rgro...@gofast.am> wrote:

From: Richard Gronning <rgro...@gofast.am> Subject: [t-i] Living Green Expo. To: transport-...@googlegroups.com

[Michael Weidler]

Dick, Bicycles as transportation is pure nonsense. I can not imagine trying to ride a bicycle in sub-zero weather. I can not imagine trying to ride to work in the driving rain. For that matter, if you live more than a couple miles from where you want to go, there had better be shower facilities available. And this is coming from someone who is preparing to embark on another several thousand mile self-supported bicycle trip.

--- On Tue, 5/10/11, Richard Gronning <rgro...@gofast.am> wrote:

[Michael Weidler]

Using whose money?!?!!? My utility bill is already ridiculous! It would go even higher if coal is taxed to death. --- On Tue, 5/10/11, Dennis Manning <john.m...@comcast.net> wrote:

From: Dennis Manning <john.m...@comcast.net> Subject: Re: [t-i] Living Green Expo.

[Dennis Manning]

Yes, that's the price of cleaner less CO2 filled air.