Hospital and Social Distancing Data
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Jon Freise
Dec 9, 2021, 8:37:56 AM12/9/21
to Transition Twin Cities
Hi Everyone,
Just a few helpful data sources for understanding the pandemic situation in Minnesota.
Here is the free hospital capacity in the State. Both ICU and non-ICU. You can see as of 12/9/21 Minnesota is nearly at capacity. And that is why we have federal troops to supplement local medical staff.
Here is some historical data on the number of confirmed infections, etc, but at the very bottom of the page is some data on mask usage and social distancing (from cell phone data).
When looking at that data we can see how behavior has changed since last December when we were undergoing the winter wave. Social distancing was -40% over baseline. And mask usage was up at 80%. For the original coronavirus that was enough to drive the epidemic back into contraction even without the vaccine. As those numbers fell in the spring, we saw the spring wave. Delta drove the initial fall wave. But many counties in Minnesota have nearly 20% of the population tested positive for covid. Because many more have been infected than test positive, the virus was running out of susceptible people to infect. (Natural immunity lasts roughly 16 mo with very wide differences among people).
The mayo clinic has some nice maps showing positive tests per 100,000 people for every county.
The Omicron variant can reinfect those with prior covid infection. It may be more transmissible. It is outcompeting Delta in the UK.
Back in Minnesota, likely due to the vaccine boosting confidence and pandemic fatigue setting in, social distancing is not even -10% of normal and mask usage is down to 20%. Those might come back up as the new variant spreads. People have responded in the past. We will see how exhausted everyone is.
If they don't respond, then we will get a chance to see what the pandemic infection curve would have looked like without the lockdowns and other drastic measures that were taken in 2020.
We are still in a rising Delta wave, with hospitals already full, and everyone exhausted and bitterly divided, this is not a good situation.
However, the vaccine does seem to prevent severe disease.
I really hope that Omicron really is less severe than Delta. And those two factors together prevent a drastic increase in mortality and morbidity.
I had a Polish friend remark "Well, my grandparents have said 'Count your blessings. Covid is nothing compared to WWI and WWII'" So there you go!
May everyone light some candles of hope this winter as we steer through this passing darkness into the returning light of spring.
-Jon
Curt McNamara
Dec 9, 2021, 9:28:31 AM12/9/21
to Jon Freise, Transition Twin Cities
Thanks!
What I see from the medical professionals:
Get your booster now!
They are widely available and offer greatly improved protection.
After you get yours, encourage your friends and relatives to get theirs.
Curt
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Demi Miller
Dec 9, 2021, 10:22:57 AM12/9/21
to Jon Freise, Transition Twin Cities
Thank you Jon
- for your consistent clarity in parsing the data to find the numbers that bring us the clearest picture. There is an additional set of data that I/we should be watching this winter as a metric of Covid mitigating behaviors compared to 2020-21, and that is the numbers for seasonal influenza.
We know that last winter's influenza numbers were almost flat-lined compared to seasonal normals for previous years - an extraordinary byproduct of mask-wearing, social distancing, and lockdown mandates.
This time around we know that there will be an impact that could be attributed to pandemic fatigue - but some of that "fatigue" effect will be mitigated by people who are now familiar with and at least partially habituated to mask usage in public settings. Other cultures - Japan, Korea, Taiwan - have adopted seasonal mask wearing as effective respiratory epidemic measures long before Covid.
The big variable that we have not previously had to factor in, which we are now facing, is that of political interference - ideological manipulation pushing people to ignore and distrust the bigger picture data and rely instead on social media hearsay or the authoritative rhetoric from the pulpit or the angry media pundits actively inviting a loyal following.
[It is a prerequisite for all aspiring authoritarians that they must first convince their followers to distrust the institutions that 'we the people' have built over the years to provide us with reliable big-picture data sets. The success of democracy relies on our collective cooperation focused on understand issues on a scale impossible with only the limited sensory and analytic capabilities of each of us as individuals or small clans.]
- for your consistent clarity in parsing the data to find the numbers that bring us the clearest picture. There is an additional set of data that I/we should be watching this winter as a metric of Covid mitigating behaviors compared to 2020-21, and that is the numbers for seasonal influenza.
We know that last winter's influenza numbers were almost flat-lined compared to seasonal normals for previous years - an extraordinary byproduct of mask-wearing, social distancing, and lockdown mandates.
This time around we know that there will be an impact that could be attributed to pandemic fatigue - but some of that "fatigue" effect will be mitigated by people who are now familiar with and at least partially habituated to mask usage in public settings. Other cultures - Japan, Korea, Taiwan - have adopted seasonal mask wearing as effective respiratory epidemic measures long before Covid.
The big variable that we have not previously had to factor in, which we are now facing, is that of political interference - ideological manipulation pushing people to ignore and distrust the bigger picture data and rely instead on social media hearsay or the authoritative rhetoric from the pulpit or the angry media pundits actively inviting a loyal following.
[It is a prerequisite for all aspiring authoritarians that they must first convince their followers to distrust the institutions that 'we the people' have built over the years to provide us with reliable big-picture data sets. The success of democracy relies on our collective cooperation focused on understand issues on a scale impossible with only the limited sensory and analytic capabilities of each of us as individuals or small clans.]
-in Love and Peace,
-Demi Miller
"The first principle is that you must not fool yourself,
and you are the easiest person to fool."
-Richard Feynman
"Whenever people say, 'We mustn't be sentimental,'
- you can take it they are about to do something cruel.
And if they add, 'We must be realistic,'
- they mean they are going to make money out of it."
--Brigid Brophy
"Life shrinks or expands in proportion to one's courage."
--Anais Nin
"It is easier to build strong children than to repair broken men."
-- Frederick Douglass
"The life of the individual only has meaning in so far as it aids in
making the life of every living thing nobler and more beautiful."
-- Albert Einstein
"We know how to transform this world to reduce our impact on nature by several fold,
how to provide meaningful, dignified living-wage jobs for all who seek them,
and how to feed, clothe, and house every person on earth.
What we don't know is how to remove those in power, those whose ignorance of biology
is matched only by their indifference to human suffering. This is a political issue. It is not an ecological problem."
--Paul Hawken, from a speech at the Bioneers conference in Oct. 2002
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