Whats the Future of WiMAX in Pakistan

[Haris Shamsi]

While there is a strong group of people who have always rejected WiMAX as a substitute of other Mediums of Internet Connection in Pakistan, 3-4 Major Players in Pakistan Kept investing in to WiMAX arena till early 2008. Rather couple of them are still investing like Augere and Wi-Tribe. Whether the operators in general got the success or not there is no denial to the fact the WiMAX networks roll outs are still happening not only in emerging economies but also in stable (stable Markets).

If i remember correctly, the arguments from ANTI WiMAX School of thought started from a point that some how the frequency interference is happening with some Satellite frequency band or some thing, then the issue of end to end business model raised very aggressively in regards of service delivery etc ( i know the pioneer deployment of WiMAX network initially had some issues in Pakistan). After that suddenly 3 more networks emerged and really struggled (and still are struggling) to get their size of Pie from existing low penetrated broadband market. Yes, they have faced challenges and might still be facing them for another couple of years or so till the time economic situation gets better however the Anti WIMAX group never got a real success in proving their claims that WiMAX is a Failure. Although many times at open forums as well as in closed meetings the operators investing in WiMAX technology were being called "foolish"  

I was going through the recent update that Clearwire raises an additional $1.5B to continue building its nationwide WiMAX network

Sprint, Comcast, Time Warner Cable, and Bright House Networks (to name a few) continue to bet big on Clearwire’s WiMAX nationwide wireless network. The foursome have just pumped an additional $1.494 billion into Clearwire’s coffer, with another $50 million coming from Intel and $20 million from Eagle River Holdings. CHA-CHING.

More specifically, Sprint, which owns 51 percent of Clearwire, invested $1.176 billion, Comcast Corp. put in $196 million, Time Warner Cable Inc. dropped another $103 million, and Bright House Networks contributed a cool $19 million.

According to Christopher King, an analyst at Stifel Nicolaus, the new influx increased Clearwire’s cash stockpile to a whopping $1.8 billion and will help to mitigate the “funding gap” for its nationwide WiMAX network build-out to $3 billion. The new funds will purportedly allow Clearwire to hold off on raising more dough until at least the end of 2011.

So i am really trying to understand that whats the cause of a failure (as a business ) as they call it. I am not convinced at all that it is technology, even i don't blame the timings however i personally think that the economic conditions and security situation has played a major role in limiting the growth of WiMAX networks. And this is not only related to WiMAX but i havent seen any major growth in other mediums like DSL or FTTH networks in Pakistan . It would be unjust to mention that CDMA 2 K has played a vital role in increasing the size of the pie for Broadband Wireless Networks.

It should be of interest to the readers that the approximate subscriber base of the WiMAX players in Pakistan is around 150 K at present where Wateen Claims to be at 100,000, Mobilink at 25,000 (in Karachi Only) , Wi-Tribe at 20,000 and Augere reaching the five figures.

Comments ?

/Haris Shamsi

[Saqib Ilyas]

Haris

My knowledge base suggests that the frequency is such that the signal penetration through walls is poor. Hence if your CPE is near a window, your experience is good, otherwise it is poor. Unless of course you get a roof mount antenna which is a few extra bucks.

In a country like Pakistan where landline quality is still bad even for many subscribers in major cities, WiMax does come as a blessing. In more developed countries, some businesses do use wireless for backup, with wireline (optical etc) for primary connectivity.

My two cents.

--
Muhammad Saqib Ilyas
PhD Student, Computer Science and Engineering
Lahore University of Management Sciences

[Rizwan Sarwar]

Correct Saqib, WiMax is not going to work in developed countries because the alternatives infrastructures are well established. Wired being the dominant form and wireless (3G, WiFi) being the 2nd best option available. It makes sense for mobile providers too, they already have infrastructure in place to add 3G to their offerings. Why invest in a technology that will require substantial capital to deploy and the return is purely not going to come easy since breaking into rival market is nearly impossible.

For Pakistan things are much simpler, Wired infrastructure is shit, and wireless is non-existant, so it is the perfect place to deploy such technology. However doing half hearted attempts is exactly the sort of thing that providers want to and should avoid. Otherwise over time the wired/3G will catch up and WiMax will have no where to go. The technology itself is not bad at all, signal penetration problems exist with 3G too, the providers have got round that by increasing the density of Masts and Access points in congested areas. Last time when I visited Pakistan, Wateen were touting WiMax availability, and all they had were one mast per city. I don't know how have things improved now, but IMO if a WiMax provider wants to gain upper hand in the market then they need to get the infrastructure problems solved and get on top of things. Otherwise it will be another lost cause.

/Rizwan

[Haris Shamsi]

So Rizwan, why do you think clear wire raised so much money in a
"developed" country to further rollout wimax ?

--
Sent from my mobile device

[Faisal Khan]

Haris:

IIRC Panasonic spent $7 million on a study as to why people in the
Middle East, Pakistan, India and Bangladesh don't use voice mail /
answering machines. I believe it was something to do with the culture
rather than economics, etc.

I personally believe our Internet Marketing (connectivity and usage
pattern wise) inherently very different from the West hence what is
successful over there - may not be here. Wimax's success or failure
would be written down in history and only time will tell.

FK

[Muhammad Waqar]

I do agree with Mr. Shamsi. WiMAX has proved to have a strong revenue generation source in BB market.

--
Regards
__________________
Muhammad Waqar
+92-(0)300-858 39 63
+92-(0)333-911 33 30

[Haris Shamsi]

Faisal I believe in this era, cultural change could happen pretty
fast. There could be examples where this economy showed stuobrness
against a cultural change but I can put across many examples where a
swift and fast paced change occured. Who would have imagine the
cellular penetration in pakistan or Mcdonalds getting successful in
breaking the "anda Burger" market. And KFC as replacement of the
famous broast outlets.

I totally agree with you that its just the matter of time, however the
point which I wanted to make is that as technology WiMax is not a
failure at all.

The deployment scenarios, and inefficient business processes played a
very negative role for this for which I personaly blame the cellular
comapnies who tried implementing this data infrastrucutre with voice
oriented mindset and human resouces. No ?

/HS

[bmug...@gmail.com]

1. If Clearwire is spending so much, then also look at size of the country + population + reach they are planning to target.

2. They're spending so much because it works better in developed countries than the developing nations.

3. The technology is produced to provide and easy internet solution to an underdeveloped consumer but who said that it works well there?

4. It obviously works better in US etc where there are no sight and loss issues.

Thanks.

[Shahzad Alam]

Guys, 

Love to comments on this thread but have limited time right now due to travel schedule. Will respond in detail. But just as an example please find below a successfull story in another developed market.......technology, planning, reachability, cost effectiveness and successful business plan strongly depends on APPLICATIONS. Need to see that what value WiMAX and its applications can add in masses? 

http://www.lightreading.com/document.asp?doc_id=184325

Yota: A Model WiMax Startup?

NOVEMBER 9, 2009 | Ray Le Maistre | Comment (1)

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Russian operator Yota believes it has cracked the code for turning a quick buck from WiMax services. The company announced today that it has reached "operational breakeven" only five months after it launched commercial services in Moscow and St. Petersburg. (See Yota Reaches Breakeven.)

"Our business experience may be used as a reference point for other mobile WiMax operators. It demonstrates that 4G broadband services business can be quite profitable," states the company's general director Denis Sverdlov in today's press release.

But while there's no doubt the Yota team has made a number of critical decisions that have worked in its favor, it's questionable whether many other WiMax startups will boast the same level of financial backing, operate in a similar competitive environment, and have the cojones to match Yota's decisions on vendor partners, backhaul investments, and subscriber growth strateg

[Fawad Niazi]

Is there any linkage of frequency to success? 3.5GHz in Pakistan...Is it same everywhere?

 

I have no idea about the service quality as even in Rawalpindi, WiTribe coverage is not available at my home:(

[mustaf...@gmail.com]

I echo Haris's point of view.

Going forward, Do you think LTE is going to be a competition?

Mustafa

Empower your Business with BlackBerry® and Mobile Solutions from Etisalat

[Haris Shamsi]

Offcourse it will be , but I think it is going to be dependent on
who's going to win the race verizon or clearwire.

There is no denial that LTE is goong to be the ultimate tech. (Till
now we think that) however I don't see commercial networks available
before 2012

/HS

[Saqib Ilyas]

Yes, frequency and location together do make a difference. Free spectrum based deployments of radio links, for instance, may still be feasible at some locations, whereas, due to excessive users at other locations, the quality/throughput may not be good.

[Babar]

Haris and others,

Just a note about Sprint's rollout of WiMAX in US. You have to keep in
mind that Sprint is in trouble, bleeding money and losing subscribers.
That colors the success or failure of the launch. Here in Dallas,
Sprint is launching a campaign touting their products but with Verizon
and AT&T in strong position, they dont stand much of a chance. So it
has little to do with technology, more with who is behind it. Just a
point of view.

Babar

On Nov 13, 6:36 am, Saqib Ilyas <msa...@gmail.com> wrote:
> Yes, frequency and location together do make a difference. Free spectrum
> based deployments of radio links, for instance, may still be feasible at
> some locations, whereas, due to excessive users at other locations, the
> quality/throughput may not be good.
>

> On Fri, Nov 13, 2009 at 9:38 AM, Fawad Niazi <niazi.fa...@gmail.com> wrote:
> > Is there any linkage of frequency to success? 3.5GHz in Pakistan...Is it
> > same everywhere?
>
> > I have no idea about the service quality as even in Rawalpindi, WiTribe
> > coverage is not available at my home:(
>

> >   On Thu, Nov 12, 2009 at 11:30 PM, Shahzad Alam <shahz...@gmail.com>wrote:
>
> >> Guys,
>
> >> Love to comments on this thread but have limited time right now due to
> >> travel schedule. Will respond in detail. But just as an example please find
> >> below a successfull story in another developed market.......technology,
> >> planning, reachability, cost effectiveness and successful business plan
> >> strongly depends on APPLICATIONS. Need to see that what value WiMAX and its
> >> applications can add in masses?
>
> >>http://www.lightreading.com/document.asp?doc_id=184325
>
> >>   Yota: A Model WiMax Startup?

> >>   NOVEMBER 9, 2009 | Ray Le Maistre<http://www.lightreading.com/profile.asp?piddl_userid=3642>
> >>  | Comment (1)<http://www.lightreading.com/document.asp?doc_id=184325#msgs>
> >>  Post a Comment<http://www.lightreading.com/document.asp?doc_id=184325#msgs>
> >> Print <http://www.lightreading.com/document.asp?doc_id=184325&print=yes>
> >>  | Reprint <ubmrepri...@wrightsreprints.com> | Share | Email This<http://www.lightreading.com/email.asp>
> >>  | RSS<http://www.lightreading.com/rss_simple.asp?f_s=5&f_ln=News+Analysis>
> >>     no ratings
>
> >>    - Login to Rate<http://www.lightreading.com/login.asp?piddl_nexturl=http%3A%2F%2Fwww%...>
>
> >>  Russian operator Yota<http://www.lightreading.com/complink_redirect.asp?vl_id=12019> believes

> >> it has cracked the code for turning a quick buck from WiMax services. The
> >> company announced today that it has reached "operational breakeven" only
> >> five months after it launched commercial services in Moscow and St.

> >> Petersburg. (See Yota Reaches Breakeven<http://www.unstrung.com/document.asp?doc_id=184298>
> >> .)

>
> >> "Our business experience may be used as a reference point for other mobile
> >> WiMax operators. It demonstrates that 4G broadband services business can be
> >> quite profitable," states the company's general director Denis Sverdlov in
> >> today's press release.
>
> >> But while there's no doubt the Yota team has made a number of critical
> >> decisions that have worked in its favor, it's questionable whether many
> >> other WiMax startups will boast the same level of financial backing, operate

> >> in a similar competitive environment, and have the *cojones* to match

> >> Yota's decisions on vendor partners, backhaul investments, and subscriber
> >> growth strateg
>

> >> On Thu, Nov 12, 2009 at 10:57 PM, liveunplug...@hotmail.com <
> >> bmugh...@gmail.com> wrote:
>
> >>> *1. If Clearwire is spending so much, then also look at size of the
> >>> country + population + reach they are planning to target. **

>
> >>> 2. They're spending so much because it works better in developed
> >>> countries than the developing nations.
>
> >>> 3. The technology is produced to provide and easy internet solution to an
> >>> underdeveloped consumer but who said that it works well there?
>
> >>> 4. It obviously works better in US etc where there are no sight and loss
> >>> issues.
>
> >>> Thanks.

> >>> *

>
> >>> On Thu, Nov 12, 2009 at 9:01 PM, Haris Shamsi <haris.sha...@gmail.com>wrote:
>
> >>>> So Rizwan, why do you think clear wire raised so much money in a
> >>>> "developed" country to further rollout wimax ?
>

> >>>> >> <haris.sha...@gmail.com>wrote:

> ...
>
> read more »

[Sohail]

People try to compare WiMAX with GSM/3G, so they call it a failure, you can't compare WiMAX with these technologies, each of these technologies(WiMAX/GSM/3G) are meant to be used for different purposes in different circumstances. Regarding LTE, World is endorsing LTE as a future 4G technology but WiMAX and LTE have 70% similarities and WiMAX is already in market and getting matured with time, LTE on other hand is still in its preliminary stage so WiMAX is actually ahead of LTE. Having said that, I still think that LTE will be used in a different prospective than WiMAX, altough both have similarities.

Regards, Sohail

--
Sohail

[Majid Farid]

Haris,

From operator point of view, WiMaX is a gap filler till they have the
LTE in place. The commercial deployment will start next year fro, LTE
and you are right that mass deployment for LTE will be by 2012 at
least thats what the analyst suggest. This is mainly for the Radio
side while the core changes by themselves can take upto one year to be
deployment. Mainly in SGSN and Node B area.

I think WiMax as a technology has its place in the market. I am
working with an operator here in UAE who have used WiMax (mobile) to
support WiFi broadband access to passenger in the Metro trains with 3G
as backup for backhauling. Just one example top of my head other
enterprise type solution might be in place that I don't know off
however for end user we have seen numerous complains on different
forums for Wateen WiMax. Motorola has learned a lot from Wateen
experience. Their WiMax product maturity was fast tracked with such a
huge deployment however we can only draw conclusion once we see LTE in
action along side WiMax. Who knows what kind of issues we might run
into with LTE?

/Majid

> ...
>
> read more »

[Shahzad Alam]

Don’t miss this insightful and revealing Keynote Panel Discussion at WiMAX Forum Americas Congress on 2nd December, which will provide a rare opportunity to hear Clearwire and Verizon go head to head on the WiMAX/LTE debate! 

Limited spaces available and discounted rates available for carriers! Register today at: www.wimaxforumglobalevents.com/americas     

60 Speakers confirmed including 30 US Carriers, 14 Analysts, 3 Consumer Electronics and 5 Government/Regulators

10.05   PANEL DISCUSSION How Will WiMAX Compete And Co-Exist With LTE? Will There Be Dual Mode Devices? Is WiMAX/LTE The New CDMA/WiMAX?  

• Is LTE really the biggest threat to WiMAX today?
• Establishing the future market boundaries for WiMAX and LTE
• An economic analysis of like for like WiMAX vs. LTE deployment
• How is WiMAX going to achieve volume and economies of scale?

Barry West, President International, Clearwire (USA)

 

 

 

Chris Neisinger, Executive Director of Networks, Verizon Wireless (USA)

 

 

 

On Fri, Nov 13, 2009 at 7:40 PM, Babar <babar....@gmail.com> wrote:

[HK]

Clearwire sets the tone for all wimax operators around the world in
terms of technology acceptance. However the adoption rates in the US
have been lukewarm so far. In my opinion its more related to the
entire wimax ecosystem, which has not been able to offer devices and
services with functionality which increases customer confidence in the
service and speeds up adoption through word of mouth. With new
licensing opening up in Asia by 2010 this is bound to change and
atleast acquisition costs are to come down and more R&D into wimax
enabled devices thrown in. Guaranteed QoS is also a question mark till
now.

Multiple factors come into play when we take a look at Pakistan as
Wimax market, the spectrum provided, Overall economic slowdown and
lack of local content on internet has not been able to pull the
masses. Yota is a very useful case study where WBA has been bundled up
with content which consumers want.

Thnx-HK

On Nov 14, 3:19 pm, Shahzad Alam <shahz...@gmail.com> wrote:
> *Don’t miss this insightful and revealing Keynote Panel Discussion at WiMAX

> Forum Americas Congress on 2nd December, which will provide a rare
> opportunity to hear Clearwire and Verizon go head to head on the WiMAX/LTE

> debate! *

>
> Limited spaces available and discounted rates available for carriers!

> Register today at:www.wimaxforumglobalevents.com/americas<http://roaming.msgfocus.com/c/18F2MOmdNyJp7nBJ2Ur>
>
> *6**0 Speakers confirmed including 30 US Carriers, 14 Analysts, 3 Consumer
> Electronics and 5 Government/Regulators*
>
> *10.05   PANEL DISCUSSION How Will WiMAX Compete And Co-Exist With LTE? Will
> There Be Dual Mode Devices? Is WiMAX/LTE The New CDMA/WiMAX?  *
>
>    - *Is LTE really the biggest threat to WiMAX today? ***
>    - *Establishing the future market boundaries for WiMAX and LTE* **
>    - *An economic analysis of like for like WiMAX vs. LTE deployment* **
>    - *How is WiMAX going to achieve volume and economies of scale?*
>
> *Barry West, President International, Clearwire (USA)***
>
>  **
>
> *
>
> **Chris Neisinger, Executive Director of Networks, Verizon Wireless (**USA**
> **)*

> ...
>
> read more »

[bmug...@gmail.com]

It beats me what does content and applications have to do with wimax adaptation figures? The word 'local-content' is now being abused too frequently.

If by local content you mean:

1. Entertainment - It's all available on YouTube, Portals (Jokes, Shairi, Ghazals, Folk Songs in multiple regional languages) you name it.

2. News and Current Affairs - All available on the Internet

3. Searching Items - All kinds of Urdu Punjabi search engines available with respective search items in local languages.

How much local are we exactly planning to get here?

Christina Aguilera can't sing in Urdu. Believe me. Now that we establish the fact that she can't so now let's move to the Application part. What Applications? Can you name a few that will help sell Wimax?

B

[Afzal Anwar]

I can do all of the above using GPRS, so why would i upgrade to WIMAX?

In my opinion, the only thing missing in our appetite for data is LIVE streaming of local and international events specially sporting events. Latest device which moves us forward in this regard is the WDTV Live from western digital which has a LAN connection for live streaming directly to our TV screens

Where is HD broadcast in our country??

If Youtube, portals, blogging, news and regular internet surfing is our criteria, than i find it useless to keep on upgrading our networks as almost all the existing technologies cater to requirements

--
Afzal Anwar