Shall Pakistan go for 3G or skip it altogether!!!

[Zarrar Hasham Khan]

Hi folks,

I have just come back from attending the LTE World Conference last week.
As you know LTE is a 4G technology (using OFDMA as multiple access
scheme) that can provide bit peak rates of over 140Mbps. The LTE is
governed and standardized by 3GPP2 and can work in any of the GSM and 3G
bands in addition to 2.6GHz and 700MHz (Digital dividend) bands.

I work in Kuwait for a 3G network operator and we are using the most top
end version of 3G available (HSPA+ 21.6Mbps), still at times it is
difficult to meet the demands. 3G USB is very successful in Kuwait and
generally for my network the cost is $83 per month with unlimited
downloads. Average download speeds are in the range 1.5 - 2.5Mbps per
subscriber (You can get upto 4Mbps during off peak in low congestion
areas).Despite having the latest and greatest in 3G, it is evident that
in a couple of year (or earlier) we will have to move to LTE.

Telecom Industry in Pakistan is now standing at a juncture where it need
to decide if 3G remains a viable option any more. I know for a fact that
most of the equipment installed in Pakistan by Mobile operators can
support 4G without much investment (Just RF cards and Software upgrade)
barring the legacy equipment (which is at end of life in any case). In
4G there is no MSC, no BSC/RNC, no HLR, etc. Infact your base station
(eNode-B) is directly connected to the SGSN (Service Gateway Router)
which is connected to GGSN (Internet Gateway Router). The most pressing
need for LTE is transmission to serve upto 100Mbps per site.

I think that the government should give the 2600Mhz license for LTE to
three operators who commit to meet rollout schedules for no payment.
Additionally, we must use the digital dividend band for rural internet
communication. Our target must be to provide broadband access (1Mbps+)
to 75% of Pakistan's population by 2015. I understand that the USF
funding that is being collected by government should be spent to install
optical network both at the metro levels and also to connect every
single village with population above 5,000.

I was fortunate to meet a lot of operators form developed countries and
one thing that sets them apart from us is the level of work that is done
by non-profit groups and collaborative initiatives to develop telecom in
their countries. It seems that the regulators have really taken a back
seat. Example are IEEE, 3GPP, LSTI, Nordic Forum, etc. I feel that the
time is ripe that the stake holders in Pakistan rise to the occasion
and atleast come up with a roadmap for the next 5 years regarding where
we want to be. This roadmap is the need of the hour as I am told by
almost everyone that our regulator does not seem to have the capacity,
capability or credibility to come up with anything worthwhile.

When I was at Mobilink, I remember that Telenor started a great
initiative where the CTO's used to meet over a cup of coffee to
informally discuss industry related issues. You cannot believe how many
issues got solved over that. I am not sure if that is still happening.

Any takers???

Zarrar

[Haris Shamsi]

I second what Zarrar has said here. However i think most of the operators in Pakistan are making their business cases not on 3G's data capability - they are looking to use 3g for more voice. keeping the dynamics of Pakistani market in view i think its still very hard to justify a business plan which has data as the primary driver.

Road map idea is excellent and i think it can easily be channelized either through PTA or MoITT. Even though we usually bash them a lot but at least they are ready to listen. We just need to constantly hammer but not the way we do it here on email lists. A proper proposal document would always help ( which is not being driven by vendors in Pakistan :) )

my 2 cents
/HS

--
Manage your subscription: http://groups.google.com/group/telecom-grid-pakistan
Browse and populate the community wiki at: http://wiki.telecompk.net

[Ayad Aftab]

Thanks Zarrar for this informative post. You're indeed spot on in terms of 3G/4G un/availability in Pakistan.

From what I can see, neither the operators nor the regulator is much interested in having a true hi-speed mobile broadband. This heavily depends on the user demand too. A large part of the hi-speed broadband needs in Pakistan get served by the fixed/wireline (DSL, Metro Ethernet, et al) service providers. And we have a bunch of Wimax providers for the remaining needs of having 'wireless' broadband. I strongly believe that the fact that Wimax evangelists hit the market much before than the GSM operators could even think what to do about 3G/4G. Plus, most of the GSM operators have 'voice' in their prime focus (again, perhaps due to users); they take data as a by-product. Some vendors had winded up their entire 3G-driven teams/units because of nothing such happening.

Anyway, I hope your suggestions get heard by the right people at the right place.

- A

[bmug...@gmail.com]

I'm not a practsing engineer but my theory is strong, what I've learnt is that incremental up-planning of networks finds a more robust reaction than skipping. It may not be in the interest of an operator by jumping the gun from 2G to 4G while completely ignoring a full-generation. There are two bottom-line perspectives, your consumers and your engineers may take a while to learn and adjust on modus operandi of 4G.

 

Bilal

[misbaha...@googlemail.com]

IMHO, the consumer behaviour towards WiMAX should be a good benchmark
for predicting if Pakis are looking for high speed data.
WiMAX in Pak doesnt support mobility but I wonder if a large
population really needs 4MBPS on the move. People are not even going
for 2MBPS while being in the home :( Neither Wimax nor EVDO attracted
huge subscribers, so what's the question of UMTS/LTE?
In this sequel, the need for 3G/4G seems a distant thought. Also, we
need to mind the constantly declining disposable income of Pakis which
will check their spending.

--
MisbahUddin Abdullah

[Riaz Marwat]

Well why do you need speeds in excess of 100Mbps in Pakistan in the first place is the question to be asked. We, in pakistan use internet mostly for FB, Wiki, youtube, gaming, movie downloads,email exchanges and chat services. The countries that are going for the super speed networks need them becuase they have more uses for them. I live in australia, and let me tell you i can get everything done here via internet., be it buying a ticket for local trains/buses, checking my bank account, transferring money,paying my bills, buying groceries from local super store etc etc. tell me if we can do the same in Pakistan using internet.  Unless our ppl can do most of the daily choirs using internet, i dont think having networks like LTE will make for a good business case.

Regards

Riaz

[Ahmed Afzal]

I think in case of Wimax/EVDO there is actually a Quality of Service issue which turns people away; pricing is now comparable to DSL. Most Wimax/EVDO users that I know are always complaining about the signal strength and the actual speeds that they can get. My personal experience of EVDO in Islamabad is that most of the time it is worse than dial-up (at least dial-up is stable). If 4G can deliver even half of what it promises to be, it will give DSL a very tough time. I can then see a scenario where all corporate users move to fiber based services and all individual users moving to a RELIABLE mobile technology.

Ahmed

[Zarrar Hasham Khan]

Dear Misbah,

I feel that the existing behaviors of consumers towards existing
technologies should not be a prime benchmark for strategic dicisions
relating to technology roadmaps. A very good example infront of us the
evolution of mobile in Pakistan. Back in 1998, before Ufone was launched
and Orascom bought Mobilink, did anybody figure the massive growth that
was in store for mobile industry? I was a part of a consortium back in
2003 vying for a license and all the indicators by all the investment
banks, regulators, equipment vendors, etc were giving best case scenario
of Pakistan having 30 million mobiles by 2015. Now we have 100M in 7
years. So just because our customer do not know what ICT can do for
them, doesn't mean they don't want it.

Secondly, LTE is not about high speeds only. LTE is also about ICT
accessibility at a very reasonable cost using the existing
infrastructure owned by mobile companies. Something 3G cannot do at a
very low cost. I feel that we need to broaden up our horizons and look
at ICT as more than just people browsing the net. Back in 2008, Mehboob
ul Haq Foundation has written an excellent report on the role and impact
of ICT on human development. This is something that Pakistan needs badly.

My original post was regarding Pakistan skipping the 3G bandwagon (as it
will be too little too late now) and focus on LTE as a cost effective,
reliable and future proof method of delivering services to all of
Pakistan (especially using the digital dividend band). Now whether
people want 4Mbps downloads and whether their declining incomes can let
them afford it is a whole new interesting debate that we can start
separately.

Regards,

Zarrar

[Qasim Ayyaz]

Well riaz i know that there are a lot of uses of internet and the list continues but the thing is that you dont need speeds in access of 100mbps for all this. 1mbps connectiong is more than sufficient to check your email pay your bills and buying tickets online. and the things you listed like FB, Wiki, Gaming, mail exchanges, chat services and even youtube does not require speeds of more than 2mbps at max. You only need speeds in access to do file transfers or maybe download a movie from internet. We only need speed of that magnitude to satisfy our greed :).

Regards,
Qasim Ayyaz Khan
www.touchkanology.com

[Qasim Ayyaz]

I personally think that wireless can never be compared to regular DSL. The issue is not with QoS rather the issue is price. You said that WiMAX's prices are comparable to DSL which is not true. I had Wi-Trible with excellent signal strength but soon i had to get rid of ti because of the pricing issue. I had consumed all 13Gb's of my account in forst 7-8 days of my usage and i downloaded no more than 2-3 movies of 700mb. So the thing is that even if you are paying an ammount which is very close to that of DSL but still you get very limited  bandwidth to work arround with. And on top of it you dont get any mobility with it. If you have a dsl and a Wifi router you get the same mobility as that of a WiMAX connection.

Regards,
Qasim Ayyaz Khan
www.touchkanology.com

On Mon, Jun 7, 2010 at 10:59 AM, Ahmed Afzal <ahmed...@gmail.com> wrote:

I think in case of Wimax/EVDO there is actually a Quality of Service issue which turns people away; pricing is now comparable to DSL. Most Wimax/EVDO users that I know are always complaining about the signal strength and the actual speeds that they can get. My personal experience of EVDO in Islamabad is that most of the time it is worse than dial-up (at least dial-up is stable). If 4G can deliver even half of what it promises to be, it will give DSL a very tough time. I can then see a scenario where all corporate users move to fiber based services and all individual users moving to a RELIABLE mobile technology.

Ahmed

[Jamal Shamsi]

My 2 cents.

Before further enhancement & availability of technology to end users, need
of time is to segregate the end user. To be defined by the Service providers
as professional, serious & armature users.

In this scenario maximum of spectrum slices and sources can be shared
between the Service providers, for the end users, instead of individual
blocking of the capital for infrastructure development.

The same amount of money can be deployed to expand the service coverage
loop,

Cheers !

[Jamal Shamsi]

 

Riaz,

 

Online booking, banking, paying bills we are doing everything in Pakistan,  Online stores are plenty and growing everyday.

 

Once the super stores come online and start doing the deliveries,  sure we can order our slice of ribs, bread, eggs, salad dressing and cinamon biscuits online from black berry in our car while driving back home

 

we are not too far

 

thats 2.5 cents worth,

 

JS

----- Original Message -----

From: Riaz Marwat

To: telecom-gr...@googlegroups.com

Sent: Monday, June 07, 2010 10:52 AM

Subject: Re: Shall Pakistan go for 3G or skip it altogether!!!

[Haris Shamsi]

@Qasim Ayyaz

 

While comparing the DSL with any other wimax technology you need to also consider that none of the operators (other than PTCL) has copper infrastructure and in future also i dont see even ptcl expanding their copper network. I personally believe that in fixed line line solutions only fiber will survive and still its very costly to switch to FTTx model both in terms of managing the infrastructure and acuqiring the customers.

 

Wireless technology will eventually lead in terms of access medium of choice both from the cusotmer side as well as from operator. Now the only question is - which wireless technology :)

 

/HS

[Faried Nawaz]

Is the regulator ready for LTE? Has anyone seen them consulting
outsiders to consider LTE?

[Ayad Aftab]

Riaz,

Mate, either you haven't been in Pakistan ever or you are not in touch with your friends here! :)

Stuff that you've mentioned, are a daily routine for us PAKIs too! And BTW, I'm really surprised to know that you guys need hundreds of Mbps to do these stuff. We do all of that on our mobile phones having a simple Gprs/Edge connection!

Cheers!

- A

On Mon, Jun 7, 2010 at 10:52 AM, Riaz Marwat <invisible....@gmail.com> wrote:

[Sheikh Usman N.]

I think it'll take time for operators to go for LTE or any such 4G technology. Reason being that even the current Wimax operators are having problems for survival. Wateen is in profit, and that too not for Wimax, but because of their Fiber backbone all over the country. Buying power is decreasing sharply. Other thing being that internet is still sort of a luxury if I am not in Lahore, Karachi, Islamabad or any other major city. Majority of population is in rural areas where they hardly have any familiarity with internet. We've the case of PTCL EVDO in front of us, its a 3.7G technology, and we can see the market response it is getting. 

Also, Pakistan, in my view will migrate to LTE-TD instead of normal LTE because of smooth migration from current Wimax infrastructure keeping in view that both are using time division.

On Tue, Jun 8, 2010 at 1:53 PM, Faried Nawaz <not...@b.org.pk> wrote:

Is the regulator ready for LTE?  Has anyone seen them consulting
outsiders to consider LTE?

--

Manage your subscription: http://groups.google.com/group/telecom-grid-pakistan
Browse and populate the community wiki at: http://wiki.telecompk.net

--
Sheikh Usman N.

"First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight with you, then you win"
-Gandhi

[Grandpa]

Some top of mind points:

1. I think Riaz raises an important issue. What is the use of 100's of
Mb's? The answer I think lies in creating pricing and platforms that
can effectively use the 100's of Mbs. - from localized interactive
learning/content, community driven local news feeds. The app store
model is an effective strategy - a. Crowdsource ideas b. Fund
development
2. One of the important but limiting factors in doing this remains the
inability of govt and govt records to be up to date and publicly
accessible. When I set out somewhere, I want to know the traffic
conditions. When I leave home, I want to know the security situation
of my area/destination.
3. I completely agree with Qasim Ayaz. The cap on Wimax is a killer. I
would not buy wireless if it has a cap, even though I believe in the
technology. The choice is really wireless vs unlimited.

regards,
nabeel

On Jun 8, 2:37 pm, Ayad Aftab <aya...@gmail.com> wrote:
> Riaz,
>
> Mate, either you haven't been in Pakistan ever or you are not in touch with
> your friends here! :)
>
> Stuff that you've mentioned, are a daily routine for us PAKIs too! And BTW,
> I'm really surprised to know that you guys need hundreds of Mbps to do these
> stuff. We do all of that on our mobile phones having a simple Gprs/Edge
> connection!
>
> Cheers!
>
> - A
>

> On Mon, Jun 7, 2010 at 10:52 AM, Riaz Marwat <invisible.riazmar...@gmail.com

>
>
>
> > wrote:
> > Well why do you need speeds in excess of 100Mbps in Pakistan in the first
> > place is the question to be asked. We, in pakistan use internet mostly for
> > FB, Wiki, youtube, gaming, movie downloads,email exchanges and chat
> > services. The countries that are going for the super speed networks need
> > them becuase they have more uses for them. I live in australia, and let me
> > tell you i can get everything done here via internet., be it buying a ticket
> > for local trains/buses, checking my bank account, transferring money,paying
> > my bills, buying groceries from local super store etc etc. tell me if we can
> > do the same in Pakistan using internet.  Unless our ppl can do most of the
> > daily choirs using internet, i dont think having networks like LTE will make
> > for a good business case.
>
> > Regards
>
> > Riaz
>

[Adnan Aslam]

well this thread reminds me of a famous quote of Thomas Watson, chairman of IBM, 1943

 “I think there is a world market for maybe five computers.” – 

I remember there were times in Pakistan when first ISP dial up connection was sold and it we what 14.4 kbps and we were all amazed and then I too remember the times when we used to go PTCL exchanges and were made to wait for hours and hours for a simple 2MB link....and now the total bandwidth of Pakistan runs in multi GBs. so as far as demand is concerned I think there is still a big demand of broadband which is growing... 

 now coming to one of major issue faced by broadband industry is last mile delivery mechanism which for wireline has all was been a challenge in Pakistan as the incumbent is losing it Fixed line network day by day where as for wireless broadband technology operators are currently held hostage by CPE cost.....

BTW GOP has forecasted  "Non-tax revenues to grow by 11.0% with PTA contributing Rs51.0bn on auction of 3G licenses" in the current budget.

 P.S. @Zarrar lately USF has started giving subsidiary for broadband too for under privileged areas which in my opinion is killing the industry in it infancy........ 

  

Adnan Aslam

[Zarrar Hasham Khan]

Guys,

First of all, we should get the 100Mbps fact straight. As I mentioned,
100Mbps is the average throughput per site. This is not the capacity
being delivered to each subscriber. Secondly, as a nation we need to
decide if we want to be an connected society. I am not talking about
youtube, facebook or even mail. I mentioned in my earlier post that
Mehboob Ul Haq Foundation made this whole report on the role of ICT on
human development. If at all we decide that we need to be an ICT enabled
society, 2G, 3G, Wimax, Copper, Fiber, DSL, Cable, etc. are all means to
deliver ICT services.

2G is going to die in the next couple of years. I can tell you that
people (vendors and operators) have already stopped talking about it.
Over the next few years, the rollout of 2G services will decline
dramatically. This is a fact and everyone knows that. The operators will
have to upgrade. If the government is really expecting $200Million/per
operator from proceeds if 3G spectrum. They are in for a surprize.

If any one of you have connections in FBR, you can check how much
equipment was imported in the first half of 2010. Almost all the
operators have put a major break on CAPEX investment in Pakistan.
Investment-wise Pakistan is not attractive any more.

I think we really need to come up with long term strategies to improve
the ICT situation as I am not seeing the government do much about it.

Regards,

Zarrar

.

[Haris Shamsi]

Adding to zarrar's comments - the speculation is that the 3G spectrum auction can go upto 350 Million and the spectrum will be available to 3 operators only ?? this is just the spectrum cost - i believe another 200 Million would be required to be invested on the hardware and optimization side only to launch this service in three big metros karachi lahore and islamabad/pindi.

 

Zarrar correct me if i am wrong.

 

/HS

[Ahmed Afzal]

Hi,

Assuming PTA has a right to hold another money making auction (as a number of people contest this also), why can't there be an auction to launch the next generation wireless technology and then whoever wants to go to 3G can do that and whoever wants to skip this and go to 4G can do that.

Ahmed

[Zarrar Hasham Khan]

Cost of one 3G node B is average $35,000 for equipment only. MW will be $15,000. Antenna system $10,000. So total cost per site (excluding tower and civil works) is $60,000. Karachi will require 1,100 sites for full deep indoor coverage. Lahore 700 and Pindi/Islamabad 550. So total sites are 2,350 costing $141Million. This is just the price of access equipment. Put another 30 million for core ad misc. So total money required will be around $200,000,000. Add on top of it $200,000,000 for license and another $100 million for misc services and duties. So launching 3 cities will cost half a billion.

Does it make sense? You do the math. 

 

Cost of one 3G node B is average $35,000 for equipment only. MW will be $15,000. Antenna system $10,000. So total cost per site (excluding tower and civil

Sent from my iPhone

On 09-Jun-2010, at 11:22 AM, Haris Shamsi <haris....@gmail.com> owrote:

[Zarrar Hasham Khan]

Because the auction is for the spectrum (and not the license) and 3G works on 2100MHz and 4G works on 2600Mhz and 800Mhz (there are other bands but they will be less popular and hence more expensive).

Cheers,

Zarrar

[Qasim Y. Khan]

licensing regime should induce 4G , but probably its understood why they are gunning for 3G is the brownfield applications with LTE on 2.5G infra?

============
QASIM KHAN  
Skype:qasimkz
============

[bstr...@gmail.com]

An year back everyone or atleast the same people were advocating wimax that wait and see next year the scene is completely going to change. Year has passed and guess what nobody gives a shit about wimax. Infinity is on the verge to foldup, Wateen is in a mega loss, Midsized operators like Witribe Augere are having infrastructure expansion issues from further investment perspective and so on.


In the same way now we are all forcing 4G and skipping 3G. Should we wait for another year or should we learn something from the past?



This would be a bad decison on PTA and Government if they skip 3G. Its not at all an agreeable signoff.


Thanks
Mian Hyderabadi

-
Nazuq Mizaj Aap Qayamat Hain Mir Ji.

***Persona BlackBerry***

---

From: Zarrar Hasham Khan <zarra...@gmail.com>

Sender: telecom-gr...@googlegroups.com

Date: Thu, 10 Jun 2010 00:15:22 +0300

To: <telecom-gr...@googlegroups.com>

ReplyTo: telecom-gr...@googlegroups.com

Subject: Re: Shall Pakistan go for 3G or skip it altogether!!!

[Haris Shamsi]

I think its not about the technology itself,  it is evident that in our economy Wireless had more penetration/success than wireline in broadband arena. Unfortunately due to external issues (political, security, Electricity) investors are reluctant in investing still.

 

Now i dont know whether infinity, wateen, wi-tribe and augere are closing down :) but i can assure you that consolidated userbase (active) will be more than wireline, if not already surpassed.

 

As far as Zarrars comments (or this thread is concerned) i believe we are debating the roadmap which is more related to cost benefit analysis for choosing a technology which is only successfull(commercially)  in high ARPU markets which pakistan is NOT. The pull from consumers vs the investment (as zarrar has metnioned) has too much delta. I dont think that any operator in pakistan is ready to invest half a billion on 3G if the market situation remains stable. I think 3G auction needs to be delayed for another year or so once the situations gets better.

 

In all of this discussion i think we are skipping a very important point raised by Zarrar. like CEO forum - meeting with PTA and MoITT very frequently on commercial matters, there has to be a consulting group "CTO forum" which consults and drives the technology roadmap in Pakistan and prepare proposals for MoITT /PTA or for busniess community etc.

 

/HS

[misbaha...@googlemail.com]

Well I am afraid to question the reasons of Wireless having more
success in Pakistan? Isnt it the pathetic customer services of PTCL &
poor packages that make mobile a better choice instead of landline?
People turned to Geo/ARY etc simply because PTV's news had no
'information' in it, giving ample opportunity for private news
channels to enter the market.

While we are talking about technology & business, we also need to mind
that the subscriber doesnt bother about technology at all. Good
reliable services,pleasant Customer services & affordable prices,
thatz it.......... The reason mobile has a huge penetration in
Pakistan is that the operators are playing a price war & that PTCL
Customer services is a ******* experience. Still you will find alot of
landline home subscribers....

Since Gov protects the monopoly of landline (like in most countries),
it must also push the landline operator to improve its QoS. I am sure,
if PTCL improves its Quality & Customer Services, PTCL's DSL can
simply kill the existing subscriber base of Wimax/EVDO etc. This point
also needs to be taken care of from investor's point of view. Any
investor willing to invest in broadband wireless technology could face
stiff competition from PTCL....

On 3G,4G,5G,,,,nG, as long as the services will be good, subscribers
will be there. The rule of business is that, if something solves a
'problem' of a person, the person will be willing to pay for it,
provided it doesnt go beyond his spending limits.

& we should never compare Paki market with Kuwaiti market in terms of
subscriber behaviour plz.... The disposable income has no comparison
whatsoever.

--
MisbahUddin Abdullah

On Jun 10, 9:54 am, Haris Shamsi <haris.sha...@gmail.com> wrote:
> I think its not about the technology itself,  it is evident that in our
> economy Wireless had more penetration/success than wireline in broadband
> arena. Unfortunately due to external issues (political, security,
> Electricity) investors are reluctant in investing still.
>
> Now i dont know whether infinity, wateen, wi-tribe and augere are closing
> down :) but i can assure you that consolidated userbase (active) will be
> more than wireline, if not already surpassed.
>
> As far as Zarrars comments (or this thread is concerned) i believe we are
> debating the roadmap which is more related to cost benefit analysis for
> choosing a technology which is only successfull(commercially)  in high ARPU
> markets which pakistan is NOT. The pull from consumers vs the investment (as
> zarrar has metnioned) has too much delta. I dont think that any operator in
> pakistan is ready to invest half a billion on 3G if the market situation
> remains stable. I think 3G auction needs to be delayed for another year or
> so once the situations gets better.
>
> In all of this discussion i think we are skipping a very important point
> raised by Zarrar. like CEO forum - meeting with PTA and MoITT very
> frequently on commercial matters, there has to be a consulting group "CTO
> forum" which consults and drives the technology roadmap in Pakistan and
> prepare proposals for MoITT /PTA or for busniess community etc.
>
> /HS
>

> On Thu, Jun 10, 2010 at 7:31 AM, <bstrea...@gmail.com> wrote:
> > An year back everyone or atleast the same people were advocating wimax that
> > wait and see next year the scene is completely going to change. Year has
> > passed and guess what nobody gives a shit about wimax. Infinity is on the
> > verge to foldup, Wateen is in a mega loss, Midsized operators like Witribe
> > Augere are having infrastructure expansion issues from further investment
> > perspective and so on.
>
> > In the same way now we are all forcing 4G and skipping 3G. Should we wait
> > for another year or should we learn something from the past?
>
> > This would be a bad decison on PTA and Government if they skip 3G. Its not
> > at all an agreeable signoff.
>
> > Thanks
> > Mian Hyderabadi
>
> > -
> > Nazuq Mizaj Aap Qayamat Hain Mir Ji.
>
> > ***Persona BlackBerry***

> > ------------------------------
> > *From: *Zarrar Hasham Khan <zarrar.k...@gmail.com>
> > *Sender: *telecom-gr...@googlegroups.com
> > *Date: *Thu, 10 Jun 2010 00:15:22 +0300
> >  *To: *<telecom-gr...@googlegroups.com>
> > *ReplyTo: *telecom-gr...@googlegroups.com
> >  *Subject: *Re: Shall Pakistan go for 3G or skip it altogether!!!

>
> > Because the auction is for the spectrum (and not the license) and 3G works
> > on 2100MHz and 4G works on 2600Mhz and 800Mhz (there are other bands but
> > they will be less popular and hence more expensive).
>
> > Cheers,
>
> > Zarrar
>
> > On 09/06/10 11:31 AM, Ahmed Afzal wrote:
>
> > Hi,
>
> > Assuming PTA has a right to hold another money making auction (as a number
> > of people contest this also), why can't there be an auction to launch the

> > *next generation* wireless technology and then whoever wants to go to 3G

[bstr...@gmail.com]

I would like to agree to these thoughts but as I have been part of the wimax planning from multiple angles so I know where this discussion is going.

 

However you make an extremely valid mark that it needs to be delayed since none of the operators are ready for 3G and related investments. However I don't agree to the skipping part to 4G.

 

aadab,

Hyderabadi

 

-

ghalib na kar huzoor main tu baar baar arz

zaahir hai tera haal sab un par kahe bagair

[Shahid]

No body has yet seen 4G and all there to date is on laboratory levels.
3G however is something widely known, implemented and acknowledged in
terms of success. In any market, consumers education and acceptability
are the behavioral dynamics that are bounded by time and not by
technology; straight away. In a country like Pakistan, "Needs are
constrained by pockets". All of us know that in Pakistan, despite
existence of 3 cellular networks, the cell consumer base was just 5
million until 2005. That was simply bounded by price (ARPU ~10$ PM).
In the next 5 years it exploded and today its ~100 million. The
logical reason is the advent of fierce competition with entry of 2
more operators bringing down the ARPU's from ~10 to ~2$ PM. Its a
highly price conscious market and every thing has a strong correlation
to the pockets.

As a starter 2Mbps per user is something that may suffice all current
needs. Going by evolution, 3G is the obvious choice that will pave the
way forward for 4G and so on.

The voice returns are badly exploited putting hindrance on operators
to get into data.(3G or 4G whatever). Please note, while the voice
market had little dependence on education, the data market is quite
otherwise. Education as well as affordability has much say in the
later case. There still remains a reasonable market for data.If
education level caps the plausible heads to 30 million then may be
education+ affordability together restrict it to 10 million. The
operators may only be willing for 3G if it can return 5+$ data ARPU's
in any case. Otherwise it really seems a distant dream.

Regards
Shahid

On Jun 11, 11:38 am, "bstrea...@gmail.com" <bstrea...@gmail.com>
wrote:

> I would like to agree to these thoughts but as I have been part of the wimax
> planning from multiple angles so I know where this discussion is going.
>
> However you make an extremely valid mark that it needs to be delayed since
> none of the operators are ready for 3G and related investments. However I
> don't agree to the skipping part to 4G.
>
> aadab,
> Hyderabadi
>
> -
> ghalib na kar huzoor main tu baar baar arz
> zaahir hai tera haal sab un par kahe bagair
>

> On Thu, Jun 10, 2010 at 10:54 AM, Haris Shamsi <haris.sha...@gmail.com>wrote:
>
> >  I think its not about the technology itself,  it is evident that in our
> > economy Wireless had more penetration/success than wireline in broadband
> > arena. Unfortunately due to external issues (political, security,
> > Electricity) investors are reluctant in investing still.
>
> > Now i dont know whether infinity, wateen, wi-tribe and augere are closing
> > down :) but i can assure you that consolidated userbase (active) will be
> > more than wireline, if not already surpassed.
>
> > As far as Zarrars comments (or this thread is concerned) i believe we are
> > debating the roadmap which is more related to cost benefit analysis for
> > choosing a technology which is only successfull(commercially)  in high ARPU
> > markets which pakistan is NOT. The pull from consumers vs the investment (as
> > zarrar has metnioned) has too much delta. I dont think that any operator in
> > pakistan is ready to invest half a billion on 3G if the market situation
> > remains stable. I think 3G auction needs to be delayed for another year or
> > so once the situations gets better.
>
> > In all of this discussion i think we are skipping a very important point
> > raised by Zarrar. like CEO forum - meeting with PTA and MoITT very
> > frequently on commercial matters, there has to be a consulting group "CTO
> > forum" which consults and drives the technology roadmap in Pakistan and
> > prepare proposals for MoITT /PTA or for busniess community etc.
>
> > /HS
>

> >   On Thu, Jun 10, 2010 at 7:31 AM, <bstrea...@gmail.com> wrote:
>
> >> An year back everyone or atleast the same people were advocating wimax
> >> that wait and see next year the scene is completely going to change. Year
> >> has passed and guess what nobody gives a shit about wimax. Infinity is on
> >> the verge to foldup, Wateen is in a mega loss, Midsized operators like
> >> Witribe Augere are having infrastructure expansion issues from further
> >> investment perspective and so on.
>
> >> In the same way now we are all forcing 4G and skipping 3G. Should we wait
> >> for another year or should we learn something from the past?
>
> >> This would be a bad decison on PTA and Government if they skip 3G. Its not
> >> at all an agreeable signoff.
>
> >> Thanks
> >> Mian Hyderabadi
>
> >> -
> >> Nazuq Mizaj Aap Qayamat Hain Mir Ji.
>
> >> ***Persona BlackBerry***

> >> ------------------------------
> >> *From: *Zarrar Hasham Khan <zarrar.k...@gmail.com>
> >> *Sender: *telecom-gr...@googlegroups.com
> >> *Date: *Thu, 10 Jun 2010 00:15:22 +0300
> >>  *To: *<telecom-gr...@googlegroups.com>
> >> *ReplyTo: *telecom-gr...@googlegroups.com

> >>  *Subject: *Re: Shall Pakistan go for 3G or skip it altogether!!!

>
> >> Because the auction is for the spectrum (and not the license) and 3G works
> >> on 2100MHz and 4G works on 2600Mhz and 800Mhz (there are other bands but
> >> they will be less popular and hence more expensive).
>
> >> Cheers,
>
> >> Zarrar
>
> >> On 09/06/10 11:31 AM, Ahmed Afzal wrote:
>
> >> Hi,
>
> >> Assuming PTA has a right to hold another money making auction (as a number
> >> of people contest this also), why can't there be an auction to launch the

> >> *next generation* wireless technology and then whoever wants to go to 3G

[Zarrar Hasham Khan]

I will try to make it and in layman terms as possible. I hope then I
will be able to convey what I am trying to.

1. I feel that Pakistan should bypass 3G and go directly to LTE (4G).
2. The reason for that is that our up-gradation cost will be LESS and we
will be able to provide more bandwidth per dollar to the customer (i.e
higher speed at lower cost).
3. If someone has Pentium-1 processor and Pentium-II and Pentium-III are
available at the same cost. One will always go the Pentium-III.
4. 150Mpbs speed for LTE is for the CELLSITE and not on a per customer base.
5. LTE is cheaper than DSL, It is cheaper than Metro Ethernet and it is
Cheaper that FTTH. If the user requirement is less than 2Mbps, User
Uptake is less than 10% of household and existing infrastructure is bad.
6. LTE is better for rural communication. Better than GSM and better
than 3G. (Using the digital dividend band).
7. Government of Pakistan should give the spectrum FREE and provide roll
out targets and go for a beauty contest rather than an auction.

Cheers,

Zarrar

[bstr...@gmail.com]

Zarrar good points. However the Pentium example that you quoted applies to consumer and not supplier. Where we are debating supplier mainly and partially consumer. Even if you want to debate consumer, so lets check the effect since all this excercise is to generate base and revenue at the end of the tunnel.

 

Lets assume the quantity demanded by consumers for LTE Goods (D) depends upon the price of D (Pd), monthly income of the consumer (E), and the price of related accessory Goods R (Pr) and Cost of Service for D is Sd applying to the operator.

 

You cannot expect Pd to remain stable when a normal phone is out of range for half of the population due to the E factor. How many people are you willing to sell D service. 5000? 10,000 or 100,000? Does this suffice the cost of Sd for the operator?

 

Thanks

Hyderabadi

 

-

hum kahan kay dana thay aur kis hunar main yakta thay

be sabab huaa ghalib dushman aasmaan apna.

[misbaha...@googlemail.com]

Is this the reason regulators/operators in India decided to go for 3G
& not for LTE trails?
Handset price is a big issue factor.



On Jun 15, 10:32 am, "bstrea...@gmail.com" <bstrea...@gmail.com>
wrote:

> Zarrar good points. However the Pentium example that you quoted applies to
> consumer and not supplier. Where we are debating supplier mainly and
> partially consumer. Even if you want to debate consumer, so lets check the
> effect since all this excercise is to generate base and revenue at the end
> of the tunnel.
>
> Lets assume the quantity demanded by consumers for LTE Goods (D) depends
> upon the price of D (Pd), monthly income of the consumer (E), and the price
> of related accessory Goods R (Pr) and Cost of Service for D is Sd applying
> to the operator.
>
> You cannot expect Pd to remain stable when a normal phone is out of range
> for half of the population due to the E factor. How many people are you
> willing to sell D service. 5000? 10,000 or 100,000? Does this suffice the
> cost of Sd for the operator?
>
> Thanks
> Hyderabadi
>
> -
> hum kahan kay dana thay aur kis hunar main yakta thay
> be sabab huaa ghalib dushman aasmaan apna.
>
> On Mon, Jun 14, 2010 at 9:19 PM, Zarrar Hasham Khan

> <zarrar.k...@gmail.com>wrote:

[Zarrar Hasham Khan]

Dear Misbah,

The decision in India to go for 3G licensing was taken in October 2007
and the auction was scheduled for June 2008. The RFI was floated by the
government and the reserve floor price was set (at $250Million). The
cabinet approval was taken at that time and the frequency was cleared,
the technology was cleared as well. This was a decision taken and
formalized in early 2008. Then it kept on delaying due to some legal,
procedural and legislative issues. No operator was even dreaming of LTE
at that time, let alone talking about it.

Now, there are over 63 operator commitments for launch in 2010 alone.
The horizon of 3G is being shrunk and the operators are upgrading to 4G
as it is cheaper and more cost effective. All the operator will try to
use 3G for atleast 7 years as this is the normal depreciation rate for
telecom equipment. And moving to LTE will make better sense.

Now coming to the terminal pricing issue, It is not wise to compare LTE
terminal prices to 2G prices. However, the terminal prices of LTE will
be equal to the terminal prices of 3G by 3Q2011. (Source: Samsung and
Huawei terminal managers. These are the only two companies that are
making LTE terminals).

Cheers,

Zarrar

[bstr...@gmail.com]

Yes, its not because of prices of handsets in India its mainly because of the MoD (Raksha Mantralaya) holdup. They need to vacate the airwaves. The rationale behind this is that if defense vacates space at the moment they will face a disconnect in their major locations and in veiw of that they want first their installations to be connected via fibre optics network and as soon as that occurs the space will become free for commercial.

 

However being the global 2nd biggest market serving more than 527 million satisfied hearts and minds across India cannot be compared to us in terms of infrastructure and returns. Perception management (branding) may look alike for brands but commercials (prices) vary on every product from Pakistan markets.

 

Thanks.

 

--

tujhe dekha tau ye jana sanam, pyar hota hai dewana sanam

ab yahan se kahan jayen hum, teri bahon mein mar jayen hum

[Adnan]

Having more bandwidth could start a local Cloud Computing Business for
SaaS applications which currently are not possible.

-a

On Jun 10, 8:31 am, bstrea...@gmail.com wrote:
> An year back everyone or atleast the same people were advocating wimax that wait and see next year the scene is completely going to change. Year has passed and guess what nobody gives a shit about wimax. Infinity is on the verge to foldup, Wateen is in a mega loss, Midsized operators like Witribe Augere are having infrastructure expansion issues from further investment perspective and so on.
>
> In the same way now we are all forcing 4G and skipping 3G. Should we wait for another year or should we learn something from the past?
>
> This would be a bad decison on PTA and Government if they skip 3G. Its not at all an agreeable signoff.
>
> Thanks
> Mian Hyderabadi
>
> -
> Nazuq Mizaj Aap Qayamat Hain Mir Ji.
> ***Persona BlackBerry***
>
>
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Zarrar Hasham Khan <zarrar.k...@gmail.com>
>
> Sender: telecom-gr...@googlegroups.com
> Date: Thu, 10 Jun 2010 00:15:22

> To: <telecom-gr...@googlegroups.com>
> Reply-To: telecom-gr...@googlegroups.com

> Subject: Re: Shall Pakistan go for 3G or skip it altogether!!!
>
> Because the auction is for the spectrum (and not the license) and 3G
> works on 2100MHz and 4G works on 2600Mhz and 800Mhz (there are other
> bands but they will be less popular and hence more expensive).
>
> Cheers,
>
> Zarrar
>
> On 09/06/10 11:31 AM, Ahmed Afzal wrote:
> > Hi,
>
> > Assuming PTA has a right to hold another money making auction (as a
> > number of people contest this also), why can't there be an auction to

> > launch the *next generation* wireless technology and then whoever