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From: rst9 <rst9w...@yahoo.com>
Newsgroups: soc.culture.indian,alt.fan.jai-maharaj,talk.politics.misc,soc.culture.china,alt.politics.economics
Subject: Re: China Is Entering A 'Danger Zone' [Charts]
Date: Tue, 21 Aug 2012 19:55:29 -0700 (PDT)
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On Aug 21, 7:04=A0pm, "Mr.B1ack" <nowh...@nada.net> wrote:
> On Wed, 22 Aug 2012 01:27:13 +0000, Dr. Jai Maharaj wrote:
> > China Is Entering A 'Danger Zone' [Charts]
>
> > By Mamta Badkar
> > Business Insider
> > Tuesday, August 21, 2012
>
> > Even as China promises to maintain a "firm grip" on real estate, many
> > are still concerned about a property bubble and hard-landing, in terms
> > of a slowdown and financial crisis.
>
> > At a speech delivered in Sydney, Kiyohiko G. Nishimura, deputy governor
> > of the Bank of Japan said China is now "entering the danger zone" that
> > could lead to a financial crisis.
>
> =A0 =A0China may indeed be in deep doo-doo ... and a huge real-estate
> =A0 =A0bubble is only one of its problems. China has invested VAST
> =A0 =A0amounts of money building industrial infrastructure over the
> =A0 =A0past five years or so - while, at the same time, destroying the
> =A0 =A0financial security of the countries/people those factories were
> =A0 =A0planning to sell to. China also got millions of young people to
> =A0 =A0move from the hinterlands to the big cities and led them to
> =A0 =A0believe there would be lots of work, rapidly improving pay and
> =A0 =A0a wonderful new standard of living awaiting them.
>
> =A0 =A0SO ... the reality ... those investments and loans are NOT going
> =A0 =A0to pay off in any timely fashion, the millions and millions of
> =A0 =A0young people are going to be TRAPPED in the cities without much
> =A0 =A0work or money or prospects thereof AND anyone counting on real-
> =A0 =A0estate investments are going to be VERY disappointed.
>
> =A0 =A0IMHO, there's a very real chance of some kind of revolution
> =A0 =A0in China within the next few years. When Japan did pretty
> =A0 =A0much the same things - and lost big-time - well, they're
> =A0 =A0Japanese ... they just went home and sulked (and STILL are).
>
> =A0 =A0But Chinese are not Japanese, I think they'll get ANGRY
> =A0 =A0and VIOLENT instead. The govt will attempt a crackdown -
> =A0 =A0thus totally de-legitimizing itself - but it will be in a
> =A0 =A0poor position to do so because the money situation will
> =A0 =A0be so bad.
>
> =A0 =A0Whether we're talking a major revolution or just some
> =A0 =A0considerable purging of the existing power structure,
> =A0 =A0I just don't know. However from the escalating lies
> =A0 =A0the govt is telling and the escalating crackdowns on
> =A0 =A0dissent, communications and even religion ... I'd say
> =A0 =A0the present govt knows that BIG trouble is on the
> =A0 =A0horizon.
>
> =A0 =A0At least Japan had a decent social-welfare safety net.
> =A0 =A0China has been growing so fast it hasn't bothered to
> =A0 =A0create any such safety features either for the citizens
> =A0 =A0or for the industries and banks. If (when) a real money-
> =A0 =A0crunch strikes it will have rapid and severe impact -
> =A0 =A0further increasing the liklihood of a coup or revolution.

For 60 years, the Western Powers have been predicting a downfall/
Jasmine Revolution for China.  This year, they still have a 7.6%
growth while Greece, Spain, Italy,... are going bankrupt, and the U.S.
is in debt for 15 trillion dollars.  It's all wishful thinking.