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Seanpit  
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 More options Feb 29 2008, 6:20 pm
Newsgroups: talk.origins
From: Seanpit <sean...@gmail.com>
Date: Fri, 29 Feb 2008 15:20:31 -0800 (PST)
Local: Fri, Feb 29 2008 6:20 pm
Subject: Re: Sean Pitman and nested hierarchy
On Feb 29, 1:30 pm, John Harshman <jharshman.diespam...@pacbell.net>
wrote:

> Seanpit wrote:
> >>  > Sean Pitman wrote:
> >>  > Your efforts to presuppose limits on all intelligent designers, even
> >>  > ones you do not know, reduces your hypothesis to a position of non-
> >>  > falsifiability. Given the way you describe your position, it is true
> >>  > by definition.  It cannot be challenged, even in theory, because you
> >>  > defined what a designer can and cannot do.

> >> John Harshman wrote:
> >> No, in fact I haven't. Consider this in a likelihoodist framework: A
> >> designer (hey, can I save typing by calling him "god" from now on?
> >> Thanks.) has a flat probability distribution of expected result,
> >> infinitely wide -- i.e. he could do anything. This means that the
> >> probability of any one outcome -- e.g. a nested hierarchy -- is
> >> arbitrarily close to zero. The likelihood of the data given the god
> >> model is almost nil. Then again, the distribution for common descent is
> >> sharply peaked; we strongly expect a nested hierarchy and little else.
> >> So the likelihood of the nested hierarchy data given the common descent
> >> model is quite high. In a likelihoodist framework we clearly pick common
> >> descent as an explanation of the data. Similar reasoning would produce
> >> similar results in bayesian or frequentist frameworks.

> > Sean Pitman wrote:
> > Let's say that we know the nested hierarchical pattern (NHP) was in
> > fact designed, but we don't know the method of design.

> Stop right there. Once more you are conflating the nested hierarchy with
> the character differences that make it up. You seem unable to avoid
> this. I agree that if the nested hierarchy were designed, it would be
> designed.

That' isn't the question here. The question is:  If you know a
particular NHP is designed, what is the likelihood that the designer
used CD as the mechanism of design?

In short, the creative methods to which mindless nature is limited are
not the same methodological limitations of intelligent agents - even
when it comes to deliberately simulating natural creations (which
happens all the time).  By your argument a "natural garden" or a
painting of a "natural scene" would be an evil deception?

> But I don't agree that if differences among species were
> designed, that means the nested hierarchy was designed.

It certainly is possible to use the method of CD by design to produce
the NHP - but not overwhelmingly likely.  Given that the NHP was in
fact designed, the question is, would most designers choose to produce
a NHP with the use of CD?

I think not.  I think that most intelligent designers would choose to
skip the whole time consuming process of actually using CD to create
the overall pattern.  This is especially true for those designers who
are primary interested in the final outcome of the overall creation.

> It just means
> that god dropped certain mutations (perhaps even macromutations or whole
> sequences of mutations) into the tree at certain points. That says
> nothing about the tree, except that it gives us an idea of the tree
> structure, just as random mutations would do.

> > Given this
> > scenario, you seem to be suggesting, even given that ID produced
> > the NHP, that the odds overwhelmingly favor the choosing of
> > common descent (CD) as the creative method? - because only
> > CD has a sharp likelihood peak given a NHP?

> No, this is a silly way of stating the problem, because you are still
> conflating two separate questions.

Not at all . . .  You are in fact saying that even given knowledge
that ID was used to produce the key aspects of the NHP in question,
that the method the designer used would be CD in *every* instance -
that the odds of the designer using any other method are "essentially
nil".  That is in fact your basic argument - as far as I can tell.

> > What is interesting here is that this notion is testable and it's
> > outcome is not "almost nil" as you suggest.  For example, give a bunch
> > of people, from artists to housewives, a piece of paper and a pencil
> > and tell them to sketch out various objects according to a NHP.  Do
> > you actually think that none of them will use any other method besides
> > common descent to produce the NHP?

> I will agree that human beings can simulate common descent, if indeed
> the goal is to produce a simulation of common descent. Similarly, a
> deceitful god is always a live hypothesis if you want to go there.

The goal is not to simulate common descent.  That's a method.  The
goal here is to produce a NHP with any *method* the intelligent
designer chooses.  Given that the goal is to produce a NHP will an
intelligent designer always choose to use the CD method?  I think
not.  You seem agree with this last point.

So, given that we know a particular NHP was in fact designed, I do not
accept the notion that it was clearly designed via CD.  That notion is
demonstrably not very reliable.

> > Not according to Michael Leyton, Dept. of Psychology, Rutgers
> > University. In his book, Lyton argues that the "human perceptual
> > system is organized as a nested hierarchy of symmetries."  He goes on
> > to argue that "architects exploit this psychological fact in the
> > structure of their buildings" . . . and that the "same is true of
> > painters, and of composers."

> >http://www.rci.rutgers.edu/~mleyton/arch0.html

> Google is a wonderful thing. It lets you find all manner of stuff using
> keywords, even if the keywords are used in quite different ways from
> what you're looking for. And this is just such a case. This is not at
> all the sort of thing we're talking about here when we say "nested
> hierarchy". (By the way, I would like to point out that, even in the
> example Leyton uses, one could arrange the hierarchy in multiple
> different ways to produce the same end result; this is not a natural
> hierarchy that arises from examination of the elements themselves.)

How is that?  How is a highly symmetrical column, or colonnade made up
of a bunch of columns, in high symmetry, not an example of a true NHP?
- arising from examination of the elements themselves?

> > It seems only natural then that we humans tend to use NHP in our own
> > creations without being told to do so and that we do not always use CD
> > to produce our buildings, paintings, or other "compositions".  In
> > other words, the odds that a NHP, that is known to be designed, is the
> > produce of CD is not "essentially 100%" as you suggest.

> Again, you conflate the design of features of species with the design of
> the nested hierarchy. That's merely assuming what you intend to prove.

Tell me, how can you deliberately design every single distinguishing
feature in every aspect of a system and not be responsible for the
design of the overall pattern as well?

> >> Or we could talk about specified information. A nested hierarchy is
> >> specified information. If we see a particular pattern that we expect to
> >> find resulting from X, we don't invoke some other process that has no
> >> expectation. The probability of getting that specified result from
> >> chance, or from an unpredictable god, are close to zero.

> > Not if you know that ID was *required* to produce the NHP.  We know
> > enough about the abilities of our own intelligence to know that we can
> > easily skip the common descent steps and produce the NHP directly - de
> > novo.  In fact, this is often done in various creations that exhibit
> > the NHP (as noted above).

> No, the article you noted above has nothing to do with nested hierarchy
> in the sense we're using it here. Google is not always your friend.

You're mistaken - on at least the first account . . .

> >> You actually use this reasoning yourself in other contexts. You only
> >> invoke god when convenient, and reject one when you think a natural
> >> model applies.

> > I wouldn't call this "convenient".  I would call this a necessity.  I
> > invoke ID only when it seems to me that there is no other viable
> > option. This is in fact the basis of the ID-only hypothesis - the same
> > basis used by SETI scientists in their search for ID in the form of ET-
> > produced "artifacts".

> Again, this reasoning only works if you assume that all aspects of life
> must be created if any aspects are created. Why make that assumption?

I don't assume that all aspects of every living thing required ID.  My
position is that only those functional aspects that required at least
1000 specified aa working together at minimum clearly required ID.

> >> Recently you claimed that the geological record is
> >> clearly the product of a catastrophic event. I said you couldn't rule
> >> out god creating the record. And your response was that since natural
> >> processes could explain the record, god was unnecessary.

> > What I reject is the notion that only ID could produce such a
> > phenomenon.  I do not reject the possibility that ID was involved.  It
> > is just that this notion cannot be adequately supported by the
> > available data in this particular case.

> How could that notion be supported, or, more importantly, rejected, by
> any data whatsoever?

By showing a process which is agreed to be non-deliberate in nature
giving rise to the phenomenon in question.  That demonstration would
neatly falsify the ID-only hypothesis.  The same thing is true of the
radiosignal SETI scientists are looking for.  All you have to do to
falsify their hypothesis that such a signal would be clear evidence of
ET would be to show a non-deliberate natural process producing the
same type of signal.

> >> You reject god
> >> as an explanation purely because there is a natural explanation, because
> >> the probability of god producing a result that happens to mimic a
> >> natural process is, in your mind, very low.

> > That's not my reasoning at all.  The probability of an intelligent
> > agent mimicking a non-deliberate process of nature is not "essentially
> > nil" as you suggest.  We humans do it all the time.  We make "natural
> > gardens" and "natural rocks" to go in these gardens and paint natural
> > scenes and produce the sounds of nature.  We copy nature all the time
> > - deliberately.  So, unlike you, I do not reject the potential of ID
> > for any phenomenon.  What I reject is the notion that only ID could
> > have done the job for certain phenomena - like the Grand Canyon or the
> > geologic column.  Other non-ID mechanisms could also do the job
> > without my being able to tell the difference.

> So why is ID necessary for the nested hierarchy, which we both agree
> could have resulted naturally through a process of common descent?

ID isn't necessary for the NHP, but for the key differences of the
various elements that make up the pattern.  Given that ID is required
for every key aspect of what makes up the overall pattern in question,
in this particular case, the overall NHP itself is logically the
result of ID.  The question is, did this NHP, which is know to be
deliberately produced by ID, the product of the CD mechanism?  Was the
intelligent agent required, statistically, to use CD as his only
option to create such a NHP? - as you suggest?

> >> And this reasoning doesn't
> >> come from a constraint put on god; quite the opposite: it comes from a
> >> total lack of constraint, which makes the probability of any particular
> >> result almost zero.

> > Nope.

> Now that was a convincing argument.

It was a response to a repetitive statement that was already answered
earlier . . .

> >> Similarly, you have already agreed that nested hierarchies are a
> >> predicted product of common descent;

> > Only given that non-deliberate natural processes could produce the
> > various key differences in the various elements that make up the NHP.

> Why? I must remind you that it's quite possible for deliberate processes
> to produce key differences even if the hierarchy is a product of common
> descent.

How possible is "quite possible"?  Hmmmmm?  Initially you indicated
that it wasn't just quite possible, it was "virtually certain" - i.e.,
~100%.  Are you backing off of this assertion just a bit here by uses
the equivocation "quite possible"?  That sounds a bit more wobbly to
me.

> We simply end up with a model in which god intervenes at
> various points in the tree to produce particular mutations. Again, you
> seem unable to avoid conflation of hypotheses.

Again, you seem unable to see that there is no "conflation".

> >> we have no need of god to explain
> >> that hierarchy just as we have no need of god to explain the
> >> stratigraphic record.

> > Not all NHP are created equal in that not all of them can be explained
> > without the use of ID.  For example, the NHP observed in certain
> > architectural structures, paintings, and compositions require ID. They
> > cannot be produced without ID.  Such creations which demonstrate NHPs
> > are demonstrably independent of the need for CD much of the time.

> This is all irrelevant, since we both agree that the nested hierarchy of
> life could be produced by common descent. (Note that this does not
> require a non-deliberate source for differences among species.)

The thing is, it is known that non-deliberate sources can only produce
NHPs via CD.  It is also known that CD is not required or even
commonly used by intelligent agents to produce NHPs.  That's the
difference in a nutshell.

> >> Yet you reject common descent but accept stratigraphy. Why the
> >> difference? Simple, it's the elephant in the room that you won't
> >> mention. You have a prior template into which all conclusions must fit:
> >> biblical inerrancy. You know that common descent is false because
> >> Genesis says kinds were separately created. But you know strata weren't
> >> created because Genesis says (or is interpreted as implying) that the
> >> strata formed naturally from the Flood. All your argument is in service
> >> to that hidden agenda. And that's where the difference comes from.
> >> Nowhere else. Have the honesty to realize that.

> > I know that the key differences between the various "kinds" of
> > creatures required ID.  This is not true of stratigraphy.  The various
> > aspects of stratigraphy do not *require* ID.  That's the difference.

> Again, this makes sense only if you conflate the source of variation
> with the process of descent and branching, which is an invalid thing to do.

It is not invalid at all.  Given that the source of variation for a
particular NHP is known to include non-ID processes, CD is the only
known option.  However, given that the source of the all variation in
a NHP is *known* to *require* ID, CD is not the only known or even the
most common mechanism used.

> > This observation has nothing to do with the Bible.  I'd be an IDist
> > without the Bible.  In fact, I thought that the ToE was quite
> > reasonable for quite some time.  It wasn't until after medical school
> > when I was in the army that I discovered that the evolutionary
> > mechanism simply didn't work beyond very low levels of functional
> > complexity. It wasn't until then that I really started reconsidering
> > the ToE.

> Please try not to strain my credulity too much. It's delicate.

Whatever - it's the truth.

> At any
> rate, your reasoning was faulty. If RM + NS don't work beyond yadda
> yadda that says nothing at all about the presence or absence of common
> descent.

It says a great deal.  It says that all the key differences between
different living things definitely required ID.  If one agrees to
this, the notion that CD was definitely the mechanism used to produce
these differences is no longer the only reasonable default assumption
because it is know that intelligent agents can and do use other
methods besides CD to produce NHPs.

I repeat:  The creative methods to which mindless nature is limited
are not the same methodological limitations of intelligent agents -
even when it comes to deliberately simulating natural creations (which
happens all the time).  By your argument a "natural garden" or a
painting of a "natural scene" would be an evil deception?

> You have to glue them together in some way to make your case,
> and so far all you're using for glue is the assertion that they're
> connected. (Or, most often, just the tacit assumption that they're the
> same thing.)

You are the one who is asserting, without any appeal to a falsifiable
test, that there is no association.  You argue that it doesn't matter
if every aspect of a NHP is known to be designed, CD is still the
clear method that was used simply because it is the overwhelming
choice of mindless nature?  That's just nonsense given the known
requirement for ID to produce a particular NHP.

> > < snip repetitive >

> >>  > The difference between the nested pattern in living things and the
> >>  > stratigraphic pattern is that all the key differences in the nested
> >>  > pattern of life require ID.

> >> Irrelevant even if true, because we are talking about an aspect (the
> >> nested hierarchy itself) that we both agree doesn't require ID. Unless
> >> you are arguing for guilt by association, everything you say about this
> >> doesn't matter.

> > It is not irrelevant if true.  All you have to do to see the relevance
> > is ask a bunch of people to deliberately create something that
> > expresses a NHP and see if they use CD as a mechanism.  You see, when
> > ID is known to be involved, it is also known that NHPs are often
> > produced without the need for CD.

> Actually, I'd like to see this experiment.

Me too!  I'm betting the outcome would not be nearly the 100% like you
originally suggested.

> I bet the most common method
> used would be to make an "ancestral" pattern, vary it, and keep varying
> it some more until you had a nested set of variations.

Well, that certainly is a falsifiable hypothesis.  Good luck with the
actual test and your prediction of essentially 100% use of the CD
method.

>  I doubt you would
> be likely to end up with such a detailed simulation of common descent in
> any other way. Of course, god can do anything.

Your doubts are not backed up by any actual test.  I doubt that most
intelligent designers would go through all the hassle of going through
all the CD steps to produce the final pattern.  I sure wouldn't want
to do it this way.  That's what's so neat about having access to an
intelligent mind.  You can skip many steps that non-intelligent
natural processes cannot skip. Why then would anyone feel forced to
used the same mindless mechanism that nature is forced to use?  That's
what your brain is for . . .  to skip steps.

< snip rest >

Sean Pitman
www.DetectingDesign.com


 
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