> > > nmp <addr...@is.invalid> wrote:

> > > >Perseus:

> > > >> nmp:

> > > >[..]

> > > >>> I never imagined our "civilisation" as you call it to survive another

> > > >>> thousand years even with us to run things. But I admit I grew up with

> > > >>> the fear of nuclear war, of Americans and Russians killing us all over

> > > >>> some stupid argument. And although that specific scenraio has now been

> > > >>> averted, I still think humanity will probably go kaboom! somewhere in

> > > >>> the next few centuries.

> > > >> Oh, my! How optimist you are! In the next few centuries! Oh, I think

> > > >> this "global civilization" would not last more than a few decades.

> > > >I do not like being accused of optimism...

> > > >But I see I wasn't clear. By "kaboom!" I meant the full scale nuclear war

> > > >that will finally throw humanity back so far back into regression that it

> > > >will not even be funny. Somewhere around the Stone Age, probably. If

> > > >anyone survives at all. Exactly when we cannot know, that's why I said in

> > > >a few centuries or so. We have the machinery to bring about such

> > > >catastrophe, we are not willing to get rid of that machinery, so it

> > > >stands to reason that the worst *will* happen someday. It always does.

> > > >But before that happens, yes, we will see oil running out, empires

> > > >collapse, alliances fall apart, all sorts of wars and atrocities, a few

> > > >nukes going off here and there.

> > > >After that has happened a few times, there will be no going back.

> > > I always like to remind folks that you do NOT go back to the

> > > stone age. People know things. Like how to set up a generator

> > > and how to make gunpowder, not to mention good old skills like

> > > pottery.

> > > They remember a good bit about medicine and health as well.

> > > And there is plenty of rubble left. Hooking up an electrical

> > > generator running off a windmill is the sort of things folks will

> > > do.

> > > [...]

> > > --

> > > --- Paul J. Gans

> > Much of the infrastructure will be gone. But if there *are people,

> > there will an understanding that somewhere, somehow, steel/iron can be

> > melted and forged into different shapes. With an iron technology

> > culture, and books, intact *somewhere, I think high tech will be quick

> > and easy to restore ***once all the darkness stops***.

> > By "darkness" I mean the fighting over rapidly dwindling resources.

> > But if there are people left who can feed themselves, then we will

> > have iron. With iron and books, the generator will not be far behind.

> > On the bright side, any electricity generated after this will be from

> > wind, sun (thermally, probably, from focused mirrors), or running

> > water. There will be no available oil and even the coal will be too

> > deep for nineteenth century-equivalent tech.

> > On the dark side, I cannot rule out complete extinction of our

> > species.

> > Kermit

> The big problem is that the easily-accessible raw materials are gone, until the crust recycles. It takes a lot of technology to keep current mines going.