On Aug 10, 5:17 pm, Tim Norfolk <timsn...@aol.com> wrote:
> On Thursday, August 9, 2012 2:53:20 PM UTC-4, Kermit wrote:well, iron is aplenty, even if for today standards most iron mineral
> > On Aug 8, 7:01 pm, Paul J Gans <gan...@panix.com> wrote:
> > > nmp <addr...@is.invalid> wrote:
> > > >Perseus:
> > > >> nmp:
> > > >[..]
> > > >>> I never imagined our "civilisation" as you call it to survive another
> > > >>> thousand years even with us to run things. But I admit I grew up with
> > > >>> the fear of nuclear war, of Americans and Russians killing us all over
> > > >>> some stupid argument. And although that specific scenraio has now been
> > > >>> averted, I still think humanity will probably go kaboom! somewhere in
> > > >>> the next few centuries.
> > > >> Oh, my! How optimist you are! In the next few centuries! Oh, I think
> > > >> this "global civilization" would not last more than a few decades.
> > > >I do not like being accused of optimism...
> > > >But I see I wasn't clear. By "kaboom!" I meant the full scale nuclear war
> > > >that will finally throw humanity back so far back into regression that it
> > > >will not even be funny. Somewhere around the Stone Age, probably. If
> > > >anyone survives at all. Exactly when we cannot know, that's why I said in
> > > >a few centuries or so. We have the machinery to bring about such
> > > >catastrophe, we are not willing to get rid of that machinery, so it
> > > >stands to reason that the worst *will* happen someday. It always does.
> > > >But before that happens, yes, we will see oil running out, empires
> > > >collapse, alliances fall apart, all sorts of wars and atrocities, a few
> > > >nukes going off here and there.
> > > >After that has happened a few times, there will be no going back.
> > > I always like to remind folks that you do NOT go back to the
> > > stone age. People know things. Like how to set up a generator
> > > and how to make gunpowder, not to mention good old skills like
> > > pottery.
> > > They remember a good bit about medicine and health as well.
> > > And there is plenty of rubble left. Hooking up an electrical
> > > generator running off a windmill is the sort of things folks will
> > > do.
> > > [...]
> > > --
> > > --- Paul J. Gans
> > Much of the infrastructure will be gone. But if there *are people,
> > there will an understanding that somewhere, somehow, steel/iron can be
> > melted and forged into different shapes. With an iron technology
> > culture, and books, intact *somewhere, I think high tech will be quick
> > and easy to restore ***once all the darkness stops***.
> > By "darkness" I mean the fighting over rapidly dwindling resources.
> > But if there are people left who can feed themselves, then we will
> > have iron. With iron and books, the generator will not be far behind.
> > On the bright side, any electricity generated after this will be from
> > wind, sun (thermally, probably, from focused mirrors), or running
> > water. There will be no available oil and even the coal will be too
> > deep for nineteenth century-equivalent tech.
> > On the dark side, I cannot rule out complete extinction of our
> > species.
> > Kermit
> The big problem is that the easily-accessible raw materials are gone, until the crust recycles. It takes a lot of technology to keep current mines going.
is poor. I think the real limit is firewood to make charcoal. Let's
suppose, that coal lasted more, a few decades more, but to save the
remains of our technology working, we would be burning coal very fast,
simply to maintain operating some trains, and that thing.
But as even coal started to get exhausted, a renewed batch of wars
could burst again. Let us say, the first war was for the oil
remaining. Then the next war would had been because of the scarcity
of coal. I even imagine a return of legal slavery in many countries
including the US. if they exist in fractions or so.
Then, this scarcity of energy, including woodlands, would push us even
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