Given a certain tendency to shoot at messengers, especially when as in
A new study on the impact of religion on crime rate has caused a bit
of a stir,and as the authors link it also to the evolution of
cooperation and the evolution of religion (as one of the "social glue"
type of theories that advocate that a tendency to reason about
invisible powerful entities was selected for in our distant past), I
thought it might be of interest to TO
a typical pop since account is here:
http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/discoblog/2012/06/25/is-the-devil-a...
The full study is open access and
available here:
http://www.plosone.org/article/info%3Adoi%2F10.1371%2Fjournal.pone.00...
Plos1 has also a "comment" section, worth looking into (I say a bit
more about them later)
The findings are pretty depressing. In essence: Religious beliefs do
have an effect on crime rates. The nastier the religion is (fire and
brimstone, emphasis on hell, punishment, eternal torture) the better
as far as crime is concerned - "nice" religions (universal salvation,
let's all have a hug and be friends type) _also_ have an effect, just
in the opposite direction, they actually increase crime rate - or so
it seems. This summary is in effect a little bit (intentionally)
careless, though this is how many have interpreted the results.
As you can see when you go to the "comment" section, that article got
quite some media coverage, including, unsurprisingly, in religious
newsletters - so you can expect people refer to it, with varying
degrees of accurately representing what the article says, so worth
reading for that reason alone.
OK, bit of background for those of you not having next office door
neighbours who are criminologists, - the rest can skip a few
paragraphs.
The idea of studying the interaction between religion and crime is as
old as criminology and sociology itself. Auguste Comte formulated the
theory that religion increases social coherence and deters crime -
which then led him (being an atheist himself) formulate the project to
set up a "positive religion" or "religion of humanity", a purely
secular religion that should take on the same role but without the
metaphysical baggage.
Closer to modern notions of scientific studies was Durkheim's study on
suicide, which became the classical text for the deterrent effect of
religion on deviant behaviour. (Durkheim argued that religious beliefs
can reduce crime - but bear in mind that he thought that crime was
something potentially quite good..) It really became mainstream
however in the 1950s, with the rise of "control theory" in criminology
(which in turn responded to the increase in crime in western postwar
societies). Early control theory is most closely related with the
names of Albert Reiss (who started it) , Ivan Nye and more than anyone
else Travis Hirschi. While religion is just one aspect of control in
his theory, Hirschi did some ground breaking work on that aspect, and
he gave the name "hellfire hypothesis" to the idea that threat of
eternal punishment is negatively correlated with crime rates.
(classical text: Hirschi, T. & Stark, R. (1969). "Hellfire and
Delinquency." Social Problems 17:202-213)
Ever since, lots of criminologists have tried to either confirm or
dis-
confirm the hypothesis (as Hirschi and Stark argued themselves) ,
creating in the process some extraordinarily good studies, but also
some methodologically abysmal ones, and the methodological issues are
substantial. A huge body of literature has as a result emerged from
this, and it is difficult to give an overall appreciation
The result is confusing, to put it mildly, with some studies showing
strong negative correlations, many neutral effects, and a few a
positive correlation (religion as criminogenic)“. One recurrent theme
in all these studies and the discussion they trigger are issues of
methodology - there is an unfortunate focus on your delinquency, a
focus on convicted offenders rather than society wide sampling, the
problem to get good crime data and also an absence of longitudinal
studies (that for me the biggest issue, but these are expensive - the
very large cohort study my colleagues are running on youth crime and
delinquency in Scotland extremely so)
One recurrent theme is how to design the tests, and what to control
for - often, initial correlations disappear when the analysis is
subsequently extended or refined. This led one of the most influential
researchers in the field conclude that the correlation is probably
spurious - John Cochran, P Wood and B Arneklev: Is the Religiosity-
Delinquency Relationship Spurious? A Test of Arousal and Social
Control Theories.
Spurious in both directions that is, there is no positive or negative
correlation according to this study. Chochran'es PhD btw was also on
that topic, and is available free here:
http://tinyurl.com/calja27
More recently (2001), Colin Baier and Bradley Wright did a meta study
of the 60 largest (and, methodologically, least controversial )
studies: If You Love Me, Keep My Commandments”: A Meta-Analysis of
the Effect of Religion on Crime Journal of Research in Crime &
Delinquency, 38 (1), pp. 3-21. Their results of the meta-analysis
show that religious beliefs and behaviours exert a moderate deterrent
effect on individuals' criminal behaviour. However, this general trend
hides significant differences, so a better conclusion could be: it all
depends. (Big surprise that)
Some religious beliefs deter some forms of deviance - and more so in
some societies than others. So yes, the number to drink driving
offences in Saudi Arabia is very low - they simply don't allow woman
to drive <frantically ducks for cover...> Generally, one sub-theory
that has some empirical support is that religious beliefs can support
asceticism, and hence reduces "consumption crimes" (which can have a
domino effect if you consider the relation between alcohol in
particular and violent crimes) But even for that , the evidence is
mixed: Chochrane and Akan (1989) Beyond Hellfire: An Exploration of
the Variable Effects of Religiosity on Adolescent Marijuana Use.
Journal of Research in Crime & Delinquency. 26 (3), pp. 198-255 is a
typical "it all rather depends" study, with a general negative
correlation between drug use and religious belief, but it depends on
the belief, how it is measured, and the drugs.
Rarer are the studies that identify a positive correlation between
religion and crime, but these too exist. One example is Charles
Kimball, When religion becomes Lethal, (2003) which argues that
dualist (struggle between good and bad) religions with a high degree
of punitativeness and absolutist truth claims fare particularly
badly with regards to homicide (which contributes to the explanation
of the disproportionately high homicide rate in the southern part of
the US, see also Ellison C.G., J. A. Burr, and P. McCall. 2003. “The
Enduring Puzzle of Southern Homicide: Is Regional Religious Culture
the Missing Piece?” A Homicide Studies 2003; 7: 326-352 ).
So, by and large, criminologists don't even ask any longer: "does
religion deter crime?" but: "what aspects of a specific religion
deter what sorts of crime under what wider social conditions?" That is
the wider context of the study linked to above, the most recent
offering. It does "drill down" to specific aspects of religions, in
particular belief in hell and heaven. But it is more ambitious on the
crime side, and looks at a variety of core crimes. What however does
it actually say? Despite reports to the contrary, it does NOT claim
that belief in hell reduces crime. Rather, it says that in comparison
to belief in heaven, belief in hell reduces crime, while belief in
heaven increases it. It "may" also be the case the belief in hell is
an absolute deterrent - but the study is agnostic about it. It only
compares two types of religious belief. In essence, the result is:
people react better to punishment than to rewards, which again is
depressing for all sorts of reasons (and has massive implications for
all sorts of issues - my approach to marking e.g. is all wrong...)
Quite a number of people misread this, including one of the critics on
the comment page, Paul. That one is in a way quite funny - as I said
above, the research into the hellfire hypothesis always going to be
methodologically difficult (as is any study in the causes of crime)
and there are a couple of studies around where you wonder why in hell
(pun intended) the referees let that one through. Paul's own. "Cross-
National Correlations of Quantifiable Societal Health with Popularity
Religiosity and Secularism in the Prosperous Democracies". Journal of
Religion & Society 7: 1–17 is in my opinion one of them, and I have
used it in our method courses as an example of what you really should
not do. So misunderstanding the article, then criticising its
methodology on the basis of this misunderstanding, and complaining
that one's own work is not cited enough is... cheeky I think is the
technical term.
Having said that, if you take the study together with the meta-
analysis by Baier and Wright (and some of the lab research by the
authors of this study) , it seems not too implausible to speculate
that the weak negative correlation between religion and crime might in
fact be much stronger for some religions (and, and that is the really
depressing part, the nasty ones for that) who are however "dragged
down" by the nicer ones.
What can we say about the validity of the study? They use much larger
data than most other studies, and most importantly, they also look at
data over time. That is very often not done and I;d consider it
crucial - they do however in their analysis not make the most of it.
So it is not a real longitudinal cohort study that would be much
better to settle the issue - but closer to it than many others. They
are pretty unique in combining lab studies with etiological macro
studies, another great plus. The quality of the statistical work is
also very good. As always, there are issues - and they acknowledge
that the study allows for different interpretations in addition to the
"simple cuasal one" they prefer on balance.
The points made by some of the commentators address some of these, and
you can look at the rebuttal of the authors yourself. my first point
too would have been that belief in hell and heaven are too strongly
correlated, and the surveys they use too coarse grained - but their
answer to this made sense to me. There is as always problems with the
reliability and comparability of the crime data. Heck, even within
nations, method of crime data collection, classification and recording
differ widely - in the UK e.g. the British crime survey asks a sample
of people if they have become victims of crime, whereas the police
statistics record reported crime - the two diverge for obvious
reasons.
More problematically, some of the crimes are heavily influenced by
cultural norms - both in the way they are defined and the way they are
enforced. Rape is the obvious example - whether marital rape is in our
out differs between countries. In Islamic jurisdiction, as a haddith
crime, you'd need five male witnesses of good standing for a
conviction - and if the accusation fails to result in a conviction,
the victim is in some countries likely to face prosecution for
adultery. Social norms also impact heavily on the willingness to
report this crime even where the law is more favourably disposed.
Kidnapping too might be distorted by cultural norms - as a large
percentage are kidnappings by a parent as part of a custody battle .
How this is classified varies between countries. Human trafficking is
another crime where enforcement, and classification, differs
substantially, and some of it is culturally caused (police attitudes
towards "foreigners" e.g.. general attitudes on immigration etc etc)
The authors argue that this does not apply for the "gold standard",
homicide, and the fact that all the other categories bar two diverge
ion the findings for homicide is a good indication that the
correlation is real for them too. While it is true that homicide is
for these studies seen as gold standard, it is a bit of tarnished
gold. It only records cases where the unnatural death was established
- Harold Shipman anyone? So countries with a better forensics/medical
coroner infrastructure will have higher homicide rates for this reason
alone - but that should be unrelated to religious/cultural beliefs,
unless a religion prohibits autopsy. Another factor is quality of
medical care - some of the reduction in homicide in the UK since the
80s e.g. is attributable to improved medical care for assault victims
- its simply that more people can be saved after a knife or gun
attack, and then count as assaults. So in theory at least, if you ave
say a religious prohibition against blood transfer, that could
artificially increase your homicide rat for the purpose of a study
like this one. However, while all these factors can influence the
absolute numbers, the authors have a point when they argue that none
of them can explain the convergence between the categories.
personally, I'm also a bit doubtful if "countries" are not way too big
as entities, especially when the in-country differences are larger
than those between countries - but they do a very good job in
controlling for a variety fo factors that could be affected by this.
My own overall conclusion is that the study is too good to be
dismissed easily and raises some interesting issues (and some worrying
conclusions for policy, regardless of the religious issue). The
authors also make a link to the evolution of cooperation, and with
that the "social glue" theories of selection for a predisposition to
evoke invisible, powerful and and omnipresent entities. Even though
I'm all in favour of this line of reasoning (they cite the study by
Johnson (2011) Why God is the best punisher. Religion Brain Behav 1:
77–84 that I cited before) I'm actually unsure if this specific study
really fits into this debate. Our surveillance culture with
omnipresent CCTV coverage should on a macro-level drown out any
correlation you can establish on a macro (nation state) level - the
laboratory based work by the same authors (e.g. Shariff AF,
Norenzayan A (2007) God is watching you: Supernatural agent concepts
increase prosocial behavior in an anonymous economic game. Psychol Sci
18: 803-809 or Norenzayan, A., Shariff, A.F., & Gervais, W. (2010).
The Evolution of Religious Misbelief. Behavioral and Brain Sciences,
32, 531-532.
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