Party Like It's 7,500,002,003A.D.?
IMJ
RUN FOR YOUR LIVES!.... there's not much time left.
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http://boston.com/dailynews/013/ascribe/_End_of_World_Has_Already_Begu:.shtml
End of World Has Already Begun, University of Washington Scientists Say
in Book 'The Life and Death of Planet Earth' By Ascribe, 1/13/2003 11:57
SEATTLE, Jan. 13 (AScribe Newswire) -- In its 4.5 billion years, Earth
has evolved from its hot, violent birth to the celebrated watery blue
planet that stands out in pictures from space. But in a new book, two
noted University of Washington astrobiologists say the planet already
has begun the long process of devolving into a burned-out cinder,
eventually to be swallowed by the sun.
By their reckoning, Earth's ''day in the sun'' has reached 4:30 a.m.,
corresponding to its 4.5 billion-year age. By 5 a.m., the 1 billion-year
reign of animals and plants will come to an end. At 8 a.m. the oceans
will vaporize. At noon - after 12 billion years - the ever-expanding
sun, transformed into a red giant, will engulf the planet, melting away
any evidence it ever existed and sending molecules and atoms that once
were Earth floating off into space.
''The disappearance of our planet is still 7.5 billion years away, but
people really should consider the fate of our world and have a realistic
understanding of where we are going,'' said UW astrophysicist Donald
Brownlee. ''We live in a fabulous place at a fabulous time. It's a
healthy thing for people to realize what a treasure this is in space and
time, and fully appreciate and protect their environment as much as
possible.''
In ''The Life and Death of Planet Earth,'' Brownlee and UW
paleontologist Peter Ward use current scientific understanding of
planets and stars, as well as the parameters of life, to provide a
glimpse of the second half of life on Earth and what comes after. The
book, a sort of biography of our planet, is being published today by
Times Books, a division of Henry Holt and Co. It is a sequel to Ward and
Brownlee's best-selling and much-discussed book ''Rare Earth,'' in which
they put forth the hypothesis that simple life is relatively common in
the universe but complex, Earth-like life is exceedingly rare.
''The Life and Death of Planet Earth'' explains how the myriad life on
Earth today was preceded by a long period of microbial dominance, and
the authors contend that complex life eventually will disappear and be
succeeded again by a period of only microbial life. They say that higher
life will be removed much as it came into being, ecosystem by ecosystem.
Aspects of the planet's past, such as numbingly cold ice ages, will be
relived in the period of devolution. ''If we do begin to slide into the
next glacial cycle, there probably are grand, planetary-scale
engineering projects that might stop or lessen the effects,'' Ward said.
''The big unknowns are whether we can afford to do such projects and
would we really know what to do. If the planet was cooling, we could, in
principle, begin painting the surface black to collect more heat. Could
we afford it? And what would be the many possible ramifications of a
planet suddenly covered in black paint? Any planetary remediation
project would always run the risk of making things worse.'' Eventually,
though, scorching heat will drive land creatures to the sea for respite.
Those that can adapt will survive for a time, but eventually the oceans
will warm too much for the complex life forms to continue. ''The last
life may look much like the first life - a single-celled bacterium,
survivor and descendant of all that came before,'' the authors write.
Finally, even the surviving microbes ''will be seared out of
existence.''
The prospects of humans surviving by moving to some other habitable
planet or moon aren't good, Brownlee and Ward contend, because even if
such a place were found, getting there would be a huge obstacle. Various
probes sent into space could survive Earth's demise, and just a few
grams of material could arguably carry a DNA sample from every human,
they say, but it's not likely the human species itself will survive.
Long before the planet's final end, life will become quite challenging,
and finally impossible, for humans.
As the sun gets hotter and grows in size, it will envelop Mercury and
Venus. It is possible it will stop just short of Earth, the authors say,
but the conditions still would make this a most-inhospitable planet.
More likely, though, the sun will consume Earth as well, severing all
the chemical bonds between molecules and sending its individual atoms
out into space, perhaps eventually to form new planets. That would leave
Mars as the nearest planet to the sun, and on Mars the fading sun's glow
would be like that of Earth's moon. That end is still some 7.5 billion
years distant, but by then Earth will have faced a variety of ''ends''
along the way, the authors say. The last dinosaur perished long ago.
Still to come are the last elephant, the last tree, the last flower, the
last glacier, the last snowflake, the last ocean, the last life.
''The Life and Death of Planet Earth'' is like its predecessor, ''Rare
Earth,'' in that the authors collected and distilled some of the latest
scientific ideas about the Earth's place in the universe, Brownlee said.
He hopes the new book, like ''Rare Earth,'' will spark widespread
discussion, and give people a fundamental and realistic view of the past
and future of their planet. ''It's a healthy thing to think of the place
of Earth among the other planets, and its place in the sun. The sun gave
life and ultimately it will bring death.''
A high-resolution version of the Earth's Clock of Life image can be
downloaded at
http://www.washington.edu/newsroom/news/images/earthclock.jpg
© Copyright 2003 The New York Times Company
Philip Deitiker
news:24711-3E...@storefull-2315.public.lawson.webtv.net:
> "The disappearance of our planet is still 7.5 billion years away, but
> people really should consider the fate of our world and have a
> realistic understanding of where we are going,"
Ummmmm, I think that given the life span of <100 years and the supposed end
of the world in 500 million (5 million human life spans). I don't think its
something I need to think about.
Chances are we will be hit by a comet in 100 million an Ice age in 2,000,
or blow ourselves up in 50. If we make it past these 3 chances are the
forth is not going to be a big problem.
Eventually you got to trade you 1957 chevy in for a new model, no ride
last forever.