On Tue, 28 Feb 2012 08:06:26 -0500, Walter Bushell <
pr...@panix.com>
wrote:
>In article
><
b9f14f22-7953-4b33...@i6g2000yqe.googlegroups.com>,
> "Robert Carnegie: Fnord: cc
talk-o...@moderators.isc.org"
> <
rja.ca...@excite.com> wrote:
>
>> On Feb 28, 3:58 am, wiki trix <
wikit...@gmail.com> wrote:
>> > I am surely, as you all must know by now, a very educated, rational,
>> > erudite, level-headed, and scientifically minded individual with
>> > parsimonious tendencies. So what happened to me last Friday, while
>> > listening to KFOG, driving after dark in my white VW Cabriolet
>> > convertible , was just a bit startling, to say the least. Driving over
>> > the bridge heading up to Sausalito for a cup of coffee at a friend¹s
>> > house, I looked straight up, with the California oceanic wind blowing
>> > through my thinning thrashing white hair, with my pet snapping turtle
>> > on my lapŠ and what did I see? Why it was two stellar objects in the
>> > night sky that were aligned in a perfectly linear alignment. It took
>> > me by such surprise, so much so that that I almost caused an accident
>> > with myself by me not remaining in alignment with my own lane which I
>> > was needing to stay un-straying from within. But to see that the
>> > linearityness manifested itself so perfectly, forming a line
>> > straighter than any man-made straight edgeŠ well, it just to jump out
>> > of me in the middle of the darknessŠ and it was virtually a
>> > spiritually emergent experience, suffocating in the depths of truth
>> > and beauty. After pondering that night and the ensuing epiphany that
>> > gradually revealed itself over the last two days for me, I now can
>> > only askŠ why are there still humans?
>>
>> Airbags.
>
>We survived as a species just fine without seat belts even and even with
>three lane highways. (One lane in either direction and a suicide lane in
>the middle. They were cheaper than 4 lane or especially divided high
>ways and kept the cost of Social Security down and also provided for
>spare parts for organ transplants. I wonder why we widened them.)
Contented city dwellers often wonder that. Superficially, there are
too many people and too much traffic. In a motorized city, roads make
up about 30% of the surface area.
Von Thünen's (1826) land rent theory, with its concentric rings of
economic activity reflecting the users' bidding power, the cost
(friction) of distance, and market competition among users, still
describes the spatial-economic architecture of the city very well.
Modern students are more likely to have studied Alonso (1964), Muth
(1969), and/or Mills (1972), as the 'classic' land use models, but
since they all do much the same thing, they're similarly descriptive.
Recently, someone described the land use decision as an optimization
problem. To some extent it is, but only in a very restricted sense.
The classic model implies a smooth, monotonic rent gradient that
declines with distance from the central business district. At
equilibrium all households attain the same level of utility, so what
people are really jockeying for is not optimal happiness, but the same
amount of happiness as everyone else. [In case you're wondering, the
same smooth gradient still applies when those further out are using
more land and when cities are polycentric rather than monocentric.] In
the classic model, urbanization ends when the rent gradient minus the
cost of construction reaches zero.
It's easist to start with the monocentric, circular city; people find
it intuitive. In the case of your question, road surface expands by
approximately the city radius squared. Currently, the US has about 4
million linear miles of roads covering a surface area of more than
30,000 square miles. Cities face opposing forces of agglomeration and
spread. In the US, the combination of abundant cheap land, tax
incentives, and the flow of price subsidies from the city centers all
favor sprawl.
Unfortunately, as the city expands the marginal population density
tends to fall. In other words, the affluent commonly try to live
further apart, i.e., the population density is approximately negative
exponential. Most of the affluent who want to live in
low-population-density neighborhoods also want to commute by car, so a
heavily disproportionate amount of the existing road surface benefits
a relatively small fraction of the population. Nevertheless, if
everyone faced the same road conditions, they could all still be
equally happy.
That's the non-political version, but as always, reality is different.
Aside from the static nature of the classic models (and the obviously
empirical fact that cities aren't round), they ignore externalities.
Affluent interest groups like to have their cake and eat it, too. In
this case, that means cheating the average-happiness rule by voting
themselves positive externalities. That is, they get to both consume
extra land at lower marginal cost, and drive on nice, wide roads with
less traffic.
Meanwhile, one of our political parties (predominantly) tells them
that they shouldn't have to pay either for the benefits they receive
from that, or for the negative externalities they impose on others in
the form of pollution, loss of recreational space, etc. The people who
vote to enhance their enjoyment of land use at the expense of others
aren't all Republicans, of course. Democrats who live in low-
population-density areas vote for people who tell them pretty much the
same thing. In affluent political districts, it can be very difficult
to tell the major parties apart because their interests are so
similar. For example, the Democrat who represents my old Congressional
district in Colorado is the son of a major real estate developer. Roy
Romer, Democrat and three-term governor of Colorado, was also a real
estate developer.
Regardless, together, the relatively affluent form a majority
coalition that effectively blocks most political action(s) targeted at
charging them for the direct and indirect benefits they receive. As
group norms go, coalition-based rent seeking is one of the more
pernicious aspects of, for lack of a better term 'socialism.'
Similarly, the affluent suburbanites vote to extend the municipal
service infrastructure to accommodate their land use. The cost of
providing municipal services rises faster than the increase in linear
distance from the source. Naturally, the affluent, suburban-dwelling,
power company president, or water magnate also votes to pay the same
amount for water and electricity as someone who lives close to the
pumping station (aka 'postage stamp pricing'). This amounts to a
subsidy paid by those close in, who over pay for utilities, to those
farther out, which in turn raises suburban property values. So the
rich get richer, pay subsidized prices for their services, and drive
on nice, wide roads. Good deal, if you can get it.
On the downside, successful rent seeking behavior both encourages
sprawl and inevitably leads to urban decay, not to mention things like
pressure on social security. The cost of those outward flowing
subsidies has to be made up somehow. The obvious, though not
necessarily best, alternative to taxing the beneficiaries of the
subsidies is to cut benefits elsewhere, and those cuts fall heavily on
people who are *already* subsidizing the suburbs. It's worse than a
vicious circle. Unchecked, it's more like a slow death spiral. Sadly,
interrupting the circle usually comes in the form of offsetting
subsidies, much of which winds up flowing toward the suburbs, further
inflates property values, and encourages more sprawl.
Repeating successful strategies has survival value, at least in the
short run. Consequently while in economic terms a house is a
durable-but-depreciating consumer good, homebuyers and real estate
sales people view it as an investment. Given the nature of the system,
that is often true, and it's much more likely in some neighborhoods
than in others.
As with other forms of market failure (education, health care,
investment, R&D, pollution, and other externalities, etc.), there is
absolutely no reason to expect the market to solve the problem of
urban sprawl. The current situation is an excellent example of a
situation where the market makes things worse; only a diehard free
market capitalist would expect the market to produce an optimal
result. Not that there's a shortage of them.
On the other hand, competing political solutions have been
breathtakingly bad, too. Negative measures, like trying to zone out
sprawl, or establish green belts make sprawl worse as builders play
leap frog to move beyond them to previously marginal land that is
suddenly both more valuable now and likely to appreciate rapidly under
subsidy. Worse, political institutions at the urban margin tend to be
weaker and more naive, so development tends to be largely unplanned.
Anyway, taken together theory and experience tell you to do three
things to neutralize urban sprawl and stabilize the cost of road
maintenance:
1) Ban the use of eminent domain to widen roads
2) Ban the use of level pricing of city services. To the greatest
extent possible, prices should reflect delivery costs
Each of these should be possible under federal law for any states that
receive federal funding for roads. If you want to reverse course, that
will be more difficult. Closing lanes and/or whole roads, as well as,
carbon, usage taxes or (tolls) spring to mind. Even getting to
neutrality will be difficult. The suburbs like their subsidies and the
interests there are entrenched.