A plan for the future
Richard Harter
Many look at the world around us and conclude that the world will
become ever richer and more prosperous, that the problems that
beset us are transient and are amenable to technological and
social fixes. We are, after all, an intelligent species that has
created a world embracing culture, a culture that has an ever
accelerating base of technology and scientific knowledge.
Such optimism is misplaced. Civilization is not on the edge of
new triumphs; it is on the edge of the descent into chaos. The
reason is simple enough; the world society is unstable and
structurally unsound. Worse, as a species we are not competent
to deal with the problems we are creating for ourselves.
What are some of these problems?
The globalized economic system is not stable either in the short
run or the long run. As it becomes more complex, there are more
and more feedback networks that act faster and faster, and more
shifting dependencies. The collapse of 2008 is a harbinger of
things to come.
The world is over populated. Population growth continues despite
the fact that we are already mining the biosphere past its
carrying capcity. It will not stop; it is not in our nature to
stop; it is not within our ability to control our overbreeding.
As more and more of the biosphere is pre-empted by humans for the
monocultures that feed them, natural ecological cycles are
disrupted. Worse, monoculture agriculture is increasingly
vulnerable to disruption by plant diseases, resource failures,
habitat destruction, and climate change.
The world population is contaminated by pathological religions
and social ideologies that are inconsistent with rational action
in response to the problems of the world system. Irrespective of
belief systems, the human response to really sticky situations
turns to violence, war, and the struggle to be the last one left
in the lifeboat. In short, striving for individual short term
advantage destroys the common good.
In the coming century there will be technological triumphs
accompanied by devastating economic collapses, wide spread
famines, plagues, and really nasty local wars. Billions will die
as the over-extended world system collapses. And then things get
worse.
The effects of global warming began to be overwhelming in the
latter half of the century. The need for populations, industry,
and agriculture to migrate destroys much of the remaining
cultural cohesion. By the twenty second century the world
population is under a billion, with most of it engaged in
subsistence agriculture. There will be pockets of technology and
science, but they will be scattered, and will mostly at the
service of local war lords.
For all practical purposes the achievements of the nineteenth and
twentieth centuries will be gone. Nor will they be easily
recovered. The physical records of the accumulated knowledge
will be scattered and gone. Even if they existed there will not
be enough people left to grasp all of the many specialties.
Still, humanity will not go extinct, and will recover in time.
The question is: How long will it take and what will the price
be. The governing factors here are the duration of the global
warming pulse and the state of ignorance of the survivors.
Certain calculations suggest that there may be as much as thirty
thousand years of barbarism before civilization re-establishes
itself.
This is a truth that cannot be admitted. No government, no
activist movement, can accept that all their efforts will come to
naught in some decades. None of us raise children thinking that
their fate is destruction in catastrophe. It is not in our
nature to accept the inevitability of ruin. Still, something can
be done.
One of the most destructive effects of the collapse will be the
scattering and destruction of knowledge. Physical records will
cease to exist; the internet will be gone. One thing that can
be done is to prepare a permanent account of human knowledge in a
form that will physically survive. There should be multiple
copies complete with tutorials. How can this be done?
I propose that we create Encyclopedia Foundations to gather this
knowledge and encapsulate it in durable physical form. There
should be at least two Foundations, at opposite ends of the
world, one in the East and one in the West. They should be
founded now, while all of the wealth of world is yet available,
so that the knowledge to rebuild civilization will be there when
society recovers.
The outcome is uncertain; the future is an unknown. Still,
certain calculations and studies suggest that this preserving of
the knowledge of humanity in a Encyclopedia Humanica will shorten
the interregnum of barbarism from thirty thousand years to a mere
thousand.
Richard Harter, c...@tiac.net
http://home.tiac.net/~cri, http://www.varinoma.com
If I do not see as far as others, it is because
I stand in the footprints of giants.
Richard Harter
Apologies for the formatting in the first go.
Mike Dworetsky
news:4a2adb90....@text.giganews.com...
At least you saw fit to plagiarise one of the SF masters, Isaac Asimov. So
who gets to play The Mule?
--
Mike Dworetsky
(Remove pants sp*mbl*ck to reply)
Dan Luke
"Richard Harter" wrote:
[snip New Dark Ages forecast]
Have you signed a movie deal yet?
--
Dan
"How can an idiot be a policeman? Answer me that!"
-Chief Inspector Dreyfus
Richard Harter
<t1...@dingdongsouth.net> wrote:
>
>"Richard Harter" wrote:
>
>[snip New Dark Ages forecast]
>
>Have you signed a movie deal yet?
I'm working on it. According to my agent they're talking about a
title of Mad Max meets the Terminator.
Richard Harter
<plati...@pants.btinternet.com> wrote:
>"Richard Harter" <c...@tiac.net> wrote in message
>news:4a2adb90....@text.giganews.com...
[snip prognostication]
>
>
>At least you saw fit to plagiarise one of the SF masters, Isaac Asimov. So
>who gets to play The Mule?
I dunno. Have you considered an acting career?
Sapient Fridge
<c...@tiac.net> writes
< snip - the world is doomed >
>I propose that we create Encyclopedia Foundations to gather this
>knowledge and encapsulate it in durable physical form. There
>should be at least two Foundations, at opposite ends of the
>world, one in the East and one in the West. They should be
>founded now, while all of the wealth of world is yet available,
>so that the knowledge to rebuild civilization will be there when
>society recovers.
>
>The outcome is uncertain; the future is an unknown. Still,
>certain calculations and studies suggest that this preserving of
>the knowledge of humanity in a Encyclopedia Humanica will shorten
>
>the interregnum of barbarism from thirty thousand years to a mere
>thousand.
If you are correct in your doomsday scenario (and perhaps you are) then
the knowledge you propose passing on is the knowledge that would have
trashed the planet in the first place...
--
sapient_...@spamsights.org ICQ #17887309 * Save the net *
Grok: http://spam.abuse.net http://www.cauce.org * nuke a spammer *
Find: http://www.samspade.org http://www.netdemon.net * today *
Kill: http://spamsights.org http://spews.org http://spamhaus.org
Richard Harter
<use_repl...@spamsights.org> wrote:
>In message <4a2ada4c....@text.giganews.com>, Richard Harter
><c...@tiac.net> writes
>
>< snip - the world is doomed >
>
>>I propose that we create Encyclopedia Foundations to gather this
>>knowledge and encapsulate it in durable physical form. There
>>should be at least two Foundations, at opposite ends of the
>>world, one in the East and one in the West. They should be
>>founded now, while all of the wealth of world is yet available,
>>so that the knowledge to rebuild civilization will be there when
>>society recovers.
>>
>>The outcome is uncertain; the future is an unknown. Still,
>>certain calculations and studies suggest that this preserving of
>>the knowledge of humanity in a Encyclopedia Humanica will shorten
>>
>>the interregnum of barbarism from thirty thousand years to a mere
>>thousand.
>
>If you are correct in your doomsday scenario (and perhaps you are) then
>the knowledge you propose passing on is the knowledge that would have
>trashed the planet in the first place...
My take on the doomsday scenario is 100% on the global warming
surge, and 90%+ on major collapses accompanied by depopulation the
hard way. Whether this leads to major dark ages is in iffier
proposition.
That said, getting rid of the knowledge permanently is not an
option. What needs to be passed on is both the knowledge on how to
do things and the knowledge of what not to do and why not to do it.
It's easier said than done, but I'm sure you're up to the task.
Perplexed in Peoria
I gotta admit - you had me fooled up to here.
Do you prefer to be addressed as Hari or Hairy?
> They should be
> founded now, while all of the wealth of world is yet available,
> so that the knowledge to rebuild civilization will be there when
> society recovers.
>
> The outcome is uncertain; the future is an unknown. Still,
> certain calculations and studies suggest that this preserving of
> the knowledge of humanity in a Encyclopedia Humanica will shorten
> the interregnum of barbarism from thirty thousand years to a mere
> thousand.
>
>
>
>
>
> Richard Harter, c...@tiac.net
> http://home.tiac.net/~cri, http://www.varinoma.com
> If I do not see as far as others, it is because
> I stand in the footprints of giants.
And the dot-sig is nice too - I hadn't noticed it before.
John S. Wilkins
There are few media that could last for the requisite length of time. I
think a granite temple with inscriptions upon the walls is perhaps the
best and most hifi medium for any technological level, rather like the
Vietnam Memorial. With modern engraving technologies we can make the
Rosetta Stone look like amateur hour. Intercalate English, Latin,
Russian, Chinese, Spanish and Swahili for the introductory material.
That will give the basics. The rest can be done in one language (perhaps
a version, or edition, for each major region?).
You could also put large amounts of material in binary form "hidden" int
he engraving, so when they reach a suitable level of technology (i.e.,
when they reinvent lasers) they can access more complex stuff.
I would suggest that one discipline they leave unrecorded is economics,
since that will be the mediate source of collapse.
--
John S. Wilkins, Philosophy, University of Sydney
http://evolvinthoughts.net
But al be that he was a philosophre,
Yet hadde he but litel gold in cofre
Kent Paul Dolan
> Civilization is not on the edge of new triumphs;
> it is on the edge of the descent into chaos. The
> reason is simple enough; the world society is
> unstable and structurally unsound. Worse, as a
> species we are not competent to deal with the
> problems we are creating for ourselves.
Go back and look at history when the Assyrians were
conquering everyone they could find, crushing the
conquered underfoot in a revenant barbarism.
Civilization has _always_ been in a headlong
downhill rush, about to disintegrate, for as long as
we have historical records.
It's just like riding a bike.
What you see if you look at human history is a
dynamic balance, not a static one.
Properly considered, history leaves us lots of hope
for the species to advance and continue advancing,
but pretty much zero hope that said progress can be
captured and continued in any one locale, tribe or
nation.
When one "world's leading civilization" tires of the
race, another one seems always to pick up the torch
and continue the relay.
The transitions are really messy, though.
xanthian.
Flas...@live.com
Long live the revolution of the tragic saga of epic proportions.
Rather than ecumenical interests presiding over illiterate swine of
yesteryear, the shift, though, is entirely of pragmatic focus, and one
within an inured perception ensconced to self-interests, sovereign
rights of homeland security, of couch-potatoedoms, virtually
everywhere -- consuming a twenty-fifth percentile of resources at a
single fifth its collective representation. Perhaps, a select cadre
of allies might be culled from the back-pocket reserve of lobbyists,
if not within direct corporate culpability, thereby superceding
channels more commonly apt an associative from a likes Bush's
alliances, friends and loyalists of a concerted Iraqi war effort, et
alia & etcetera. Scientists, the clergy of today, as it were, are
compartmentalized specialists of means, analogous to a clergy of the
church of conglomerate direction, a facilitate to a corporate entity,
across the universe of fairly trade competition, discretion exercises,
to vie contemptuously to assign relative worth, in value confidence
factors for future realization of profit motifs, for in some sense,
wisely moreover, and glean by less astute visionaries a consequence
realizable losses attest. All goodly goods, services, and means,
withal, whence spirit, humanity, and benevolence, are reducible for a
lesser discrepancy, a statistical abstract depreciatory biases across
realizable fair value -- conscientious or moral investment decisions
and campaign tactics, yet have to purport, albeit in any sense wholly
responsible to a long-abiding guide and coalescent aim, withal future
humanity may duly ascribe. When and if ever such germane formulae
ever so pristinely elucidated, that may all be so apprised, thankfully
for first having such noble interests at heart, that such a shimmer of
irradiate hope be unleashed upon us.
With my fondest regards, -F.
--
'...Jesuits and the Jansenists suspended their own quarrels and joined
forces to attack a common enemy, for as such they looked on the
authors of the Encyclopédie. And yet the two volumes were written with
great moderation; and the articles on religious questions carefully
avoided all theological discussions. Nevertheless, they were bitterly
attacked, and finally the publication was suspended by the government.
Diderot and his associates, however, knew where to look far help, and
they found it in the right quarter. . . . variously, over the years,
from the king's stock of mistresses, Mme. de Mailly, Mme. de
Vintimille nad, and Mme. de Pompadour.'
David Hare-Scott
>
> Properly considered, history leaves us lots of hope
> for the species to advance and continue advancing,
> but pretty much zero hope that said progress can be
> captured and continued in any one locale, tribe or
> nation.
>
> When one "world's leading civilization" tires of the
> race, another one seems always to pick up the torch
> and continue the relay.
>
> The transitions are really messy, though.
>
> xanthian.
怎么是您的普通话？
David
Richard Harter
Surely you could have fewer but longer sentences; periods are an
endangered natural resource and should not be squandered.
NAS
<t1...@dingdongsouth.net> wrote:
>
>"Richard Harter" wrote:
>
>[snip New Dark Ages forecast]
>
>Have you signed a movie deal yet?
Perhaps he should write a book first, or several. _Armageddon_for
Dummies_, perhaps, or _The_Complete_Idiot's_Guide_to_the_Apocalypse_.
_How_to_Make_Money_in_the_Coming_Dark_Age_ might appeal to some, or
for those who find the whole subject depressing,
_A_Humerous_Look_At_The_Collapse_Of_Civilization_. For the adventurous
traveler, how about
_Touring_The_Remains_of_Europe_on_21_Calories_A_Day_?
Desertphile
<use_repl...@spamsights.org> wrote:
> In message <4a2ada4c....@text.giganews.com>, Richard Harter
> <c...@tiac.net> writes
> < snip - the world is doomed >
> >the interregnum of barbarism from thirty thousand years to a mere
> >thousand.
Isaac Asimov.
> If you are correct in your doomsday scenario (and perhaps you are) then
> the knowledge you propose passing on is the knowledge that would have
> trashed the planet in the first place...
The apes of that future would have to find many new ways to trash
the planet again--- they won't have any crude oil, nor easy access
to coal and metals.
--
http://desertphile.org
Desertphile's Desert Soliloquy. WARNING: view with plenty of water
"Why aren't resurrections from the dead noteworthy?" -- Jim Rutz
Mitchell Coffey
Attorneys who may or may not represent the Borges copyright holder want
you on the phone. They sound ambiguous.
Lancelot Hogben
Sean O'Hara
declared:
>
> The world is over populated. Population growth continues despite
>
> the fact that we are already mining the biosphere past its
> carrying capcity.
If that was true, there'd be global famines.
--
Sean O'Hara <http://www.diogenes-sinope.blogspot.com>
New audio book: As Long as You Wish by John O'Keefe
<http://librivox.org/short-science-fiction-collection-010/>
Richard Harter
<sean...@gmail.com> wrote:
>In the Year of the Earth Ox, the Great and Powerful Richard Harter
>declared:
>>
>> The world is over populated. Population growth continues despite
>>
>> the fact that we are already mining the biosphere past its
>> carrying capcity.
>
>If that was true, there'd be global famines.
Indeed. The catch is that the global famines don't have to be
immediate. It's like having credit cards and using them to live
beyond your means. Things get really sticky when they are maxed
out and you can't get any more credit.
World wide we are growing more food by deforestation, expanding
agriculture into previously unfarmed lands unsuitable for
agriculture, lowering water tables, and heavy use of fertilizers.
Without the "green revolution" the global famines would already be
here. The green revolution has postponed the famines at a price.
Franco
The Encyclopédie of Diderot and d'Alembert is said to be so
comprehensive that it contains all the information necessary to
reconstruct the technology of mid-eighteenth century Europe. That's
good enough. Simply translate it into many languages and distribute
copies around the world.
Desertphile
<ffr...@mailandnews.com> wrote:
> On Jun 7, 12:10 pm, "Sean O'Hara" <seanoh...@gmail.com> wrote:
> > In the Year of the Earth Ox, the Great and Powerful Richard Harter
> > declared:
> > > The world is over populated. Population growth continues despite
> > > the fact that we are already mining the biosphere past its
> > > carrying capcity.
> > If that was true, there'd be global famines.
> The Encyclopédie of Diderot and d'Alembert is said to be so
> comprehensive that it contains all the information necessary to
> reconstruct the technology of mid-eighteenth century Europe. That's
> good enough. Simply translate it into many languages and distribute
> copies around the world.
Why not just the two phrases "Don't Panic" and "Bang the rocks
together, guys?"
Steven L.
> That said, getting rid of the knowledge permanently is not an
> option. What needs to be passed on is both the knowledge on how to
> do things and the knowledge of what not to do and why not to do it.
They're called "time capsules."
The one buried at the 1965 New York World's Fair is intended to be
opened in the year 6939 A.D., or nearly 5,000 years from today. It
contained artifacts and recordings of life in the 1960s, carefully
sealed against damage or decay, to give folks in the 70th century an
idea how we lived:
http://www2.nytimes.com/specials/magazine3/64list.html
A partial list of the contents:
Credit cards
Electronic watch
Contact lenses
Plastic wrap
Bikini bathing suit
Ball point pen
Antibiotic pills
Tranquilizer pills
Birth control pills
Electric toothbrush
Pack of filtered cigarettes
Computer memory unit
Heart valve
"Shoot, a fella could have a pretty good weekend in Vegas with all that
stuff."
-- Major Kong, "Doctor Strangelove," 1964
--
Steven L.
Email: sdli...@earthlinkNOSPAM.net
Remove the NOSPAM before replying to me.
Sean O'Hara
declared:
> On Sun, 07 Jun 2009 15:10:38 -0400, "Sean O'Hara"
> <sean...@gmail.com> wrote:
>
>> In the Year of the Earth Ox, the Great and Powerful Richard Harter
>> declared:
>>> The world is over populated. Population growth continues despite
>>>
>>> the fact that we are already mining the biosphere past its
>>> carrying capcity.
>> If that was true, there'd be global famines.
>
> Indeed. The catch is that the global famines don't have to be
> immediate. It's like having credit cards and using them to live
> beyond your means. Things get really sticky when they are maxed
> out and you can't get any more credit.
>
> World wide we are growing more food by deforestation, expanding
> agriculture into previously unfarmed lands unsuitable for
> agriculture, lowering water tables, and heavy use of fertilizers.
> Without the "green revolution" the global famines would already be
> here. The green revolution has postponed the famines at a price.
>
Indeed. And what you're saying is that we haven't exceeded Earth's
carrying capacity yet.
John S. Wilkins
Ignore them - they claim copyright on every book that has ever been
written or ever could be. Nuisance suit.
Garamond Lethe
Not at all. They own an earlier copy of this exact text (and many
variants as well). The only question is whether or not it can be located
before the court-imposed deadline on discovery. I'm guessing not. Their
indexing system was always pretty primitive.
John S. Wilkins
Of course, if the courts grant them enought ime they can also pull up
every document needed to show that the published version was copied from
their version. But I take the indexing problem to heart, although I
wonder, in these days of computers, whether they couldn't do a search
during lunch and find whatever they want. It wouldn't be free, of
course.
unrestra...@hotmail.com
It would be nice if we could explain what happened. Otherwise they'd
just repeat it a few centuries later.
Some folks live within their economic means (that is, their spending
does not exceed their income). But they have to have a basic
understanding of credit and interest, their probable income for the
foreseeable future, and the concept of squirreling away money for
retirement and emergencies.
Globally, this requires, at a minimum, enough people understanding the
basics of ecology - pollution, carrying capacity, and climate change.
Kermit
Wombat
> Remove the NOSPAM before replying to me.
Why 6939 A.D.? Why not 6965 A.D.? Just curious.
Wombat
Walter Bushell
"Sean O'Hara" <sean...@gmail.com> wrote:
> In the Year of the Earth Ox, the Great and Powerful Richard Harter
> declared:
> >
> > The world is over populated. Population growth continues despite
> >
> > the fact that we are already mining the biosphere past its
> > carrying capcity.
>
> If that was true, there'd be global famines.
s/carrying capacity/long term carrying capacity/
For a while one can live on previously accumulated capital, like the
aquifers we are draining.
Richard Harter
<mdotc...@removeverizon.net> wrote:
>Attorneys who may or may not represent the Borges copyright holder want
>you on the phone. They sound ambiguous.
>
>Lancelot Hogben
That's a pity. I might have been a great fan of Borges if there
might have been such a person.
John S. Wilkins
> On Sun, 07 Jun 2009 16:54:12 GMT, Mitchell Coffey
> <mdotc...@removeverizon.net> wrote:
>
>
> >Attorneys who may or may not represent the Borges copyright holder want
> >you on the phone. They sound ambiguous.
> >
> >Lancelot Hogben
>
> That's a pity. I might have been a great fan of Borges if there
> might have been such a person.
>
Hey, he wrote about me! He can't have been all that bad.
John Harshman
> If I do not see as far as others, it is because
> I stand in the footprints of giants.
How about this one? "If I do not see as far as others, it's because
there's a dwarf standing on my shoulders, and he's blocking my view."
Chris
[snip]
>
> I propose that we create Encyclopedia Foundations to gather this
> knowledge and encapsulate it in durable physical form. There
> should be at least two Foundations, at opposite ends of the
> world, one in the East and one in the West. They should be
> founded now, while all of the wealth of world is yet available,
> so that the knowledge to rebuild civilization will be there when
> society recovers.
>
> The outcome is uncertain; the future is an unknown. Still,
> certain calculations and studies suggest that this preserving of
> the knowledge of humanity in a Encyclopedia Humanica will shorten
>
> the interregnum of barbarism from thirty thousand years to a mere
>
> thousand.
>
> Richard Harter, c...@tiac.nethttp://home.tiac.net/~cri,http://www.varinoma.com
> If I do not see as far as others, it is because
> I stand in the footprints of giants.
A fine idea. Since you obviously have _Foundation_ covered, I will
donate my copy of _A Canticle for Liebowitz_.
Chris
Chris
No, it's not. What he's saying is that we are supporting the huge
numbers of people by practices that are not sustainable. "Carrying
capacity" does not mean "maximum number you can support by destroying
all your resources"; it means the number you can support indefinitely
without damaging your ecosystem.
Chris
John S. Wilkins
> On Jun 6, 5:07 pm, c...@tiac.net (Richard Harter) wrote:
>
> [snip]
>
> >
> > I propose that we create Encyclopedia Foundations to gather this
> > knowledge and encapsulate it in durable physical form. There
> > should be at least two Foundations, at opposite ends of the
> > world, one in the East and one in the West. They should be
> > founded now, while all of the wealth of world is yet available,
> > so that the knowledge to rebuild civilization will be there when
> > society recovers.
> >
> > The outcome is uncertain; the future is an unknown. Still,
> > certain calculations and studies suggest that this preserving of
> > the knowledge of humanity in a Encyclopedia Humanica will shorten
> > the interregnum of barbarism from thirty thousand years to a mere
> > thousand.
> >
>
> A fine idea. Since you obviously have _Foundation_ covered, I will
> donate my copy of _A Canticle for Liebowitz_.
>
And I my copy of _Earth Abides_.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earth_Abides
Matt Silberstein
jo...@wilkins.id.au (John S. Wilkins) in
<1j1090j.1qpicwy1qt5cp7N%jo...@wilkins.id.au> wrote:
>Richard Harter <c...@tiac.net> wrote:
>
>> On Sun, 07 Jun 2009 16:54:12 GMT, Mitchell Coffey
>> <mdotc...@removeverizon.net> wrote:
>>
>>
>> >Attorneys who may or may not represent the Borges copyright holder want
>> >you on the phone. They sound ambiguous.
>> >
>> >Lancelot Hogben
>>
>> That's a pity. I might have been a great fan of Borges if there
>> might have been such a person.
>>
>Hey, he wrote about me! He can't have been all that bad.
Does one have to exist in order to be bad? And is it beyond the realm
of possibility that Harter would like someone who was not bad?
--
Matt Silberstein
Do something today about the Darfur Genocide
http://www.beawitness.org
http://www.darfurgenocide.org
http://www.savedarfur.org
"Darfur: A Genocide We can Stop"
John S. Wilkins
> On Mon, 8 Jun 2009 18:36:51 +1000, in talk.origins ,
> jo...@wilkins.id.au (John S. Wilkins) in
> <1j1090j.1qpicwy1qt5cp7N%jo...@wilkins.id.au> wrote:
>
> >Richard Harter <c...@tiac.net> wrote:
> >
> >> On Sun, 07 Jun 2009 16:54:12 GMT, Mitchell Coffey
> >> <mdotc...@removeverizon.net> wrote:
> >>
> >>
> >> >Attorneys who may or may not represent the Borges copyright holder want
> >> >you on the phone. They sound ambiguous.
> >> >
> >> >Lancelot Hogben
> >>
> >> That's a pity. I might have been a great fan of Borges if there
> >> might have been such a person.
> >>
> >Hey, he wrote about me! He can't have been all that bad.
>
> Does one have to exist in order to be bad? And is it beyond the realm
> of possibility that Harter would like someone who was not bad?
I think I see the problem. Harter doesn't exist, so Borges is probably
OK.
Steven L.
Why bother?
Why not just copy Wikipedia to some CD-ROMs and store them in time
capsules, along with some pictograms to enable whoever finds the capsule
to understand English?
--
Steven L.
Email: sdli...@earthlinkNOSPAM.net
Tim DeLaney
> Apologies for the formatting in the first go.
>
> Many look at the world around us and conclude that the world will
> become ever richer and more prosperous, that the problems that
> beset us are transient and are amenable to technological and
> social fixes. We are, after all, an intelligent species that has
> created a world embracing culture, a culture that has an ever
> accelerating base of technology and scientific knowledge.
>
> Such optimism is misplaced. Civilization is not on the edge of
> new triumphs; it is on the edge of the descent into chaos. The
> reason is simple enough; the world society is unstable and
> structurally unsound. Worse, as a species we are not competent
> to deal with the problems we are creating for ourselves.
>
> What are some of these problems?
>
> The globalized economic system is not stable either in the short
> run or the long run. As it becomes more complex, there are more
> and more feedback networks that act faster and faster, and more
> shifting dependencies. The collapse of 2008 is a harbinger of
> things to come.
>
> the fact that we are already mining the biosphere past its
> knowledge and encapsulate it in durable physical form. There
> should be at least two Foundations, at opposite ends of the
> world, one in the East and one in the West. They should be
> founded now, while all of the wealth of world is yet available,
> so that the knowledge to rebuild civilization will be there when
> society recovers.
>
> The outcome is uncertain; the future is an unknown. Still,
> certain calculations and studies suggest that this preserving of
> the knowledge of humanity in a Encyclopedia Humanica will shorten
> the interregnum of barbarism from thirty thousand years to a mere
> thousand.
>
> If I do not see as far as others, it is because
> I stand in the footprints of giants.
I agree with everything except the prescription. IMHO, Homo sapiens
is an evolutionary quirk that will never rival the dinosaurs for
longevity, and we could easily ruin the party for the rest of
vertabrata.
You seem to view the glass as half empty; I view it as barely damp.
So, eat drink and be merry ...
Tim
nick_keigh...@hotmail.com
<snip>
> IMHO, Homo sapiens
> is an evolutionary quirk that will never rival the dinosaurs for
> longevity,
The Dinosaurs have come and gone,
we Theriodonts remain.
You are comparing oranges with orchards
[nick keighley]
Joseph Nebus
>Franco wrote:
>> The Encyclop=E9die of Diderot and d'Alembert is said to be so
>> comprehensive that it contains all the information necessary to
>> reconstruct the technology of mid-eighteenth century Europe. That's
>> good enough. Simply translate it into many languages and distribute
>> copies around the world.
>Why bother?
>Why not just copy Wikipedia to some CD-ROMs and store them in time=20
>capsules, along with some pictograms to enable whoever finds the capsule=20
>to understand English?
What if the future does not need quite so much information about
the minor characters of _Aqua Teen Hunger Force_?
--
Joseph Nebus
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Tim DeLaney
Well, not quite. An orange with a large branch of the tree, perhaps?
But your point is well taken. I should have compared H. sapiens with
another species. Say, T. rex.
"We theriodonts" An interesting POV.
Tim
Matt Silberstein
>Matt Silberstein <RemoveThisPref...@ix.netcom.com> wrote:
>
>> On Mon, 8 Jun 2009 18:36:51 +1000, in talk.origins ,
>> jo...@wilkins.id.au (John S. Wilkins) in
>> <1j1090j.1qpicwy1qt5cp7N%jo...@wilkins.id.au> wrote:
>>
>> >Richard Harter <c...@tiac.net> wrote:
>> >
>> >> On Sun, 07 Jun 2009 16:54:12 GMT, Mitchell Coffey
>> >> <mdotc...@removeverizon.net> wrote:
>> >>
>> >>
>> >> >Attorneys who may or may not represent the Borges copyright holder want
>> >> >you on the phone. They sound ambiguous.
>> >> >
>> >> >Lancelot Hogben
>> >>
>> >> That's a pity. I might have been a great fan of Borges if there
>> >> might have been such a person.
>> >>
>> >Hey, he wrote about me! He can't have been all that bad.
>>
>> Does one have to exist in order to be bad? And is it beyond the realm
>> of possibility that Harter would like someone who was not bad?
>
>I think I see the problem. Harter doesn't exist, so Borges is probably
>OK.
Having met Harter I am completely willing to accept that he does not
exist. That does not tell me, though, whether or not his not existing
frees him from the burden of being good.
William Morse
> Many look at the world around us and conclude that the world will
>
> become ever richer and more prosperous, that the problems that beset us
> are transient and are amenable to technological and social fixes. We
> are, after all, an intelligent species that has
>
> created a world embracing culture, a culture that has an ever
> accelerating base of technology and scientific knowledge.
>
> Such optimism is misplaced. Civilization is not on the edge of new
> triumphs; it is on the edge of the descent into chaos. The reason is
> simple enough; the world society is unstable and structurally unsound.
> Worse, as a species we are not competent to deal with the problems we
> are creating for ourselves.
Everyone who has argued that in the past has been proved wrong. That
doesn't make you wrong, but it should give you pause.
> What are some of these problems?
>
> The globalized economic system is not stable either in the short run or
> the long run. As it becomes more complex, there are more and more
> feedback networks that act faster and faster, and more shifting
> dependencies. The collapse of 2008 is a harbinger of things to come.
There have been numerous previous collapses, most of them local, some of
them global. The collapse of 2008 is a harbinger of things to come -
namely more of the same cycle.
> The world is over populated. Population growth continues despite
>
> the fact that we are already mining the biosphere past its carrying
> capcity. It will not stop; it is not in our nature to stop; it is not
> within our ability to control our overbreeding.
>
> As more and more of the biosphere is pre-empted by humans for the
>
> monocultures that feed them, natural ecological cycles are disrupted.
> Worse, monoculture agriculture is increasingly vulnerable to disruption
> by plant diseases, resource failures, habitat destruction, and climate
> change.
Farming practices have been changing in response to these problems. I
agree that they may not be changing fast enough.
> The world population is contaminated by pathological religions and
> social ideologies that are inconsistent with rational action in response
> to the problems of the world system. Irrespective of
>
> belief systems, the human response to really sticky situations turns to
> violence, war, and the struggle to be the last one left in the lifeboat.
> In short, striving for individual short term advantage destroys the
> common good.
>
> In the coming century there will be technological triumphs accompanied
> by devastating economic collapses, wide spread famines, plagues, and
> really nasty local wars. Billions will die
Billions will die of old age in any case. It appears from current trends
that if we can just get enough economic development, countries will go
through the demographic transition and population growth will level out.
But you say nothing about trying to achieve this. Many of us acknowledge
the concerns - some of us have been through previous doomsday
predictions. I would like to see your suggestions for solving the
problems you see.
Yours,
Bill Morse
William December Starr
Wombat <tri...@multiweb.nl> said:
> "Steven L." <sdlit...@earthlink.net> wrote:
>
>> They're called "time capsules."
>>
>> The one buried at the 1965 New York World's Fair is intended to
>> be opened in the year 6939 A.D., or nearly 5,000 years from today.
>
> Why 6939 A.D.? Why not 6965 A.D.? Just curious.
Something to do with the previous World's Fair in New York in 1939,
I'd guess. Maybe they buried a 5,000-year capsule there/then too,
and the idea is to have both of them dug up and opened at the same
time.
-- wds
Richard Harter
<RemoveThisPref...@ix.netcom.com> wrote:
>On Tue, 9 Jun 2009 03:29:32 +1000, in talk.origins ,
>jo...@wilkins.id.au (John S. Wilkins) in
><1j10xnp.f94h1we21ivpN%jo...@wilkins.id.au> wrote:
>
>>Matt Silberstein <RemoveThisPref...@ix.netcom.com> wrote:
>>
>>> On Mon, 8 Jun 2009 18:36:51 +1000, in talk.origins ,
>>> jo...@wilkins.id.au (John S. Wilkins) in
>>> <1j1090j.1qpicwy1qt5cp7N%jo...@wilkins.id.au> wrote:
>>>
>>> >Richard Harter <c...@tiac.net> wrote:
>>> >
>>> >> On Sun, 07 Jun 2009 16:54:12 GMT, Mitchell Coffey
>>> >> <mdotc...@removeverizon.net> wrote:
>>> >>
>>> >>
>>> >> >Attorneys who may or may not represent the Borges copyright holder want
>>> >> >you on the phone. They sound ambiguous.
>>> >> >
>>> >> >Lancelot Hogben
>>> >>
>>> >> That's a pity. I might have been a great fan of Borges if there
>>> >> might have been such a person.
>>> >>
>>> >Hey, he wrote about me! He can't have been all that bad.
>>>
>>> Does one have to exist in order to be bad? And is it beyond the realm
>>> of possibility that Harter would like someone who was not bad?
>>
>>I think I see the problem. Harter doesn't exist, so Borges is probably
>>OK.
>
>Having met Harter I am completely willing to accept that he does not
>exist. That does not tell me, though, whether or not his not existing
>frees him from the burden of being good.
I would not go so far as to claim that I exist. After all, if you
were to put the population of the world to the test, asking if they
have any evidence Richard Harter exists, the vast majority would
say no. That said, I have never found being good to be a burden.
Inconceivable, yes, but not a burden.
Richard Harter
<sdli...@earthlink.net> wrote:
>Richard Harter wrote:
>
>> That said, getting rid of the knowledge permanently is not an
>> option. What needs to be passed on is both the knowledge on how to
>> do things and the knowledge of what not to do and why not to do it.
>
>They're called "time capsules."
>
>The one buried at the 1965 New York World's Fair is intended to be
>opened in the year 6939 A.D., or nearly 5,000 years from today. It
>contained artifacts and recordings of life in the 1960s, carefully
>sealed against damage or decay, to give folks in the 70th century an
>idea how we lived:
>
>http://www2.nytimes.com/specials/magazine3/64list.html
>
>A partial list of the contents:
[snip list]
That's the sort of thing that is useful to an archasologist if
anyone ever finds the thing. Even then, our guesses as to what an
archaeologist might find interesting are likely to be well of the
mark.
Richard Harter
<sdli...@earthlink.net> wrote:
>Franco wrote:
>> On Jun 7, 12:10 pm, "Sean O'Hara" <seanoh...@gmail.com> wrote:
>>> In the Year of the Earth Ox, the Great and Powerful Richard Harter
>>> declared:
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>> The world is over populated. Population growth continues despite
>>>> the fact that we are already mining the biosphere past its
>>>> carrying capcity.
>>> If that was true, there'd be global famines.
>>>
>>> --
>>> Sean O'Hara <http://www.diogenes-sinope.blogspot.com>
>>> New audio book: As Long as You Wish by John O'Keefe
>>> <http://librivox.org/short-science-fiction-collection-010/>
>>=20
>> The Encyclop=E9die of Diderot and d'Alembert is said to be so
>> comprehensive that it contains all the information necessary to
>> reconstruct the technology of mid-eighteenth century Europe. That's
>> good enough. Simply translate it into many languages and distribute
>> copies around the world.
>
>Why bother?
>
>Why not just copy Wikipedia to some CD-ROMs and store them in time=20
>capsules, along with some pictograms to enable whoever finds the capsule=20
>to understand English?
The problem with that is that people have to reinvent CD-ROM
readers and the formats of the data. As technology changes data in
old formats becomes inaccessible.
John S. Wilkins
I believe that few people exist much. We all exist just to the ratio of
people who claim to have met us, as a proportion of the whole world.I,
for example, exist around 10^-9. And that only on weekdays. On weekends,
when I am stuck at home, I barely exist more than 10^-12.
I am no better than I ought to be in that respect so neither need you
be.
>
>
> Richard Harter, c...@tiac.net
> http://home.tiac.net/~cri, http://www.varinoma.com
> If I do not see as far as others, it is because
> I stand in the footprints of giants.
If I see, it is because I stand.
--
John S. Wilkins, Philosophy, University of Sydney
Mark Isaak
> On Sat, 06 Jun 2009 21:07:03 +0000, Richard Harter wrote:
>
>> Many look at the world around us and conclude that the world will
>> become ever richer and more prosperous, that the problems that beset
>> us are transient and are amenable to technological and social fixes.
>> We are, after all, an intelligent species that has created a world
>> embracing culture, a culture that has an ever accelerating base of
>> technology and scientific knowledge.
>>
>> Such optimism is misplaced. Civilization is not on the edge of new
>> triumphs; it is on the edge of the descent into chaos. The reason is
>> simple enough; the world society is unstable and structurally unsound.
>> Worse, as a species we are not competent to deal with the problems we
>> are creating for ourselves.
>
> Everyone who has argued that in the past has been proved wrong.
Not everyone. Not the North American Indians.
(Granted, the situations then and now are not exactly parallel.)
--
Mark Isaak eciton (at) earthlink (dot) net
"It is certain, from experience, that the smallest grain of natural
honesty and benevolence has more effect on men's conduct, than the most
pompous views suggested by theological theories and systems." - D. Hume
RUR
"Sean O'Hara" <sean...@gmail.com> wrote in message
news:792hlmF...@mid.individual.net...
> In the Year of the Earth Ox, the Great and Powerful Richard Harter
> declared:
>>
>> The world is over populated. Population growth continues despite
>>
>> the fact that we are already mining the biosphere past its carrying
>> capcity.
>
> If that was true, there'd be global famines.
>
There are. You just don't see them clearly because your country is powerful
enough to make them happen to people whose deaths you can ignore.
R.
Steven L.
Correct.
--
Steven L.
Email: sdli...@earthlinkNOSPAM.net
Jack Tingle
> William December Starr wrote:
>> In article
>> <f09601d5-0e2d-4ec9...@q16g2000yqg.googlegroups.com>,
>> Wombat <tri...@multiweb.nl> said:
>>
>>> "Steven L." <sdlit...@earthlink.net> wrote:
>>>
>>>> They're called "time capsules."
>>>>
>>>> The one buried at the 1965 New York World's Fair is intended to
>>>> be opened in the year 6939 A.D., or nearly 5,000 years from today.
>>> Why 6939 A.D.? Why not 6965 A.D.? Just curious.
>>
>> Something to do with the previous World's Fair in New York in 1939,
>> I'd guess. Maybe they buried a 5,000-year capsule there/then too,
>> and the idea is to have both of them dug up and opened at the same
>> time.
>
> Correct.
That's kind of hilarious, in an odd way. 26 years in 5000 is ludicrous
precision, 0.52%. The people of 6939 will shake their heads. I doubt
they'll care about an update that small, anymore than we care about the
events of 3000 BC vs. 2976. (Yes, there will be a couple of excited
_squees_ from archaeologists, and maybe a traveling museum show with a
pricey gift shop. And yes, I realize there won't be those, just some
kind of equivalent, maybe upload microsofts behind the ear and some kind
of trylon/perisphere/metal-mesh-globe mental construct shop.)
We have no substantial interest in what happened in a particular 26 year
period in 3000 BC over any part of the world. The finest resolution we
look at that far back is First Dynasty Pharaohs' reigns and the First
Dynastic wars in Egypt, a resolution of about 50 years. I was actually
surprised at _that_ level of precision. The rest of the world was pretty
much silent.
Regards,
Jack Tingle
William Morse
> On Wed, 10 Jun 2009 03:32:08 +0000, William Morse wrote:
>
>> On Sat, 06 Jun 2009 21:07:03 +0000, Richard Harter wrote:
>>
>>> Many look at the world around us and conclude that the world will
>>> become ever richer and more prosperous, that the problems that beset
>>> us are transient and are amenable to technological and social fixes.
>>> We are, after all, an intelligent species that has created a world
>>> embracing culture, a culture that has an ever accelerating base of
>>> technology and scientific knowledge.
>>>
>>> Such optimism is misplaced. Civilization is not on the edge of new
>>> triumphs; it is on the edge of the descent into chaos. The reason is
>>> simple enough; the world society is unstable and structurally unsound.
>>> Worse, as a species we are not competent to deal with the problems we
>>> are creating for ourselves.
>>
>> Everyone who has argued that in the past has been proved wrong.
>
> Not everyone. Not the North American Indians.
>
> (Granted, the situations then and now are not exactly parallel.)
There are a number of good examples of civilization collapse (see Jared
Diamond's "Collapse"). These have to do not with lack of competence or
structural unsoundness but with failure to recognize the problem. Perhaps
of more importance to my argument, such collapses have previously all
been local, not global.
With regard to the North American Indians, their collapse had nothing to
do with instability or incompetence but with the introduction of diseases
that they had no immunity to. Until their population collapse in the
period 1500-1600, they were quite in control of their culture.
Now it may be possible for a new pandemic to collapse modern
civilization,but that is not Richard Harter's argument.
Yours,
Bill Morse
William Morse
IIRC the people at the National Archives and Records Administration,
having dealt for many years with trying to access various digital data in
old formats, speak highly of stone tablets.
wf3h
> fnord"Sean O'Hara" <seanoh...@gmail.com> wrote in message
jesus...talk about cliches. take off your tin foil hat for once and
learn to think...
wf3h
and another paranoid cliche rears its ugly head....
fnord
Burkhard
> If I do not see as far as others, it is because
> I stand in the footprints of giants.
I plan to have all the important scientific insights tattooed on my
body. If our new alien overlords then imprison me, I can use it to
break -
Sorry, hang on, just got a call from some lawyers form Fox, have to
take this, won't be a ....
Greg Goss
>> Not everyone. Not the North American Indians.
>>
>> (Granted, the situations then and now are not exactly parallel.)
>
>There are a number of good examples of civilization collapse (see Jared
>Diamond's "Collapse"). These have to do not with lack of competence or
>structural unsoundness but with failure to recognize the problem. Perhaps
>of more importance to my argument, such collapses have previously all
>been local, not global.
>
>With regard to the North American Indians, their collapse had nothing to
>do with instability or incompetence but with the introduction of diseases
>that they had no immunity to. Until their population collapse in the
>period 1500-1600, they were quite in control of their culture.
>
>Now it may be possible for a new pandemic to collapse modern
>civilization,but that is not Richard Harter's argument.
We could bring central and south American Indians into the argument,
though. There were Jared-style collapses there.
--
Tomorrow is today already.
Greg Goss, 1989-01-27