Is antiglobalism good from the systems perspective?

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Aleksandar Malečić

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Sep 24, 2016, 6:28:16 AM9/24/16
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Hillary Sillitto

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Sep 24, 2016, 6:43:07 AM9/24/16
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Empires rise, thrive for a while, then collapse when they no longer provide rewards that offset the perceived costs of participation. As true of the current globalisation agenda as any other.

I wouldn't touch this particular discussion forum with a barge pole, it looks like Kremlin hybrid warfare.

However there are legitimate questions about globalisation from a systems perspective, who the winners and losers are, and whether too much interaction and interdependence is creating systemic brittleness and vulnerability to cascading failure.

I would not trust the conclusions of either US or Russian (or indeed EU) led studies on these points!

Best

Hillary


On 24 Sep 2016 11:28 am, "Aleksandar Malečić" <ljma...@gmail.com> wrote:
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Aleksandar Malečić

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Sep 24, 2016, 7:52:15 PM9/24/16
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"Trust" is the key word. It's potentially dangerous/destructive in the long run if people don't trust each other, or when they are fake and shallow. One candidate (the US elections) talks about bridges, so what the hey, the other one will talk about bridges. Etc.

Aleksandar

Steven Krane

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Sep 24, 2016, 11:58:04 PM9/24/16
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It seems clear that the struggle is for profit.  Whose?  How?

Whose (principles)  = humanity, ref. The Declaration of Independence USA, among others, slavery notwithstanding.  Not > dollarized shareholder.

How:  A system designed to idealize the principles.

There may be others, but in terms of longevity and adherence to the principles of liberty and justice, the US govt is pretty good, relatively speaking.  Although, there are many corrosive forces at work and it is uncertain whether the Republic, the system, can withstand them without itself being corroded, there is reason to believe that men and women of goodwill can bring liberty and justice for all, by action, alone.  Reason is inert.

On Sep 24, 2016, at 4:52 PM, Aleksandar Malečić <ljma...@gmail.com> wrote:

"Trust" is the key word. It's potentially dangerous/destructive in the long run if people don't trust each other, or when they are fake and shallow. One candidate (the US elections) talks about bridges, so what the hey, the other one will talk about bridges. Etc.

Aleksandar

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Hillary Sillitto

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Sep 25, 2016, 3:03:48 AM9/25/16
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I think the key globalisation issue is whether the economy exists to serve society, or vice versa. With rapidly increasing inequality it starts looking like the latter, and that threatens the moral legitimacy of the current economic order.
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Aleksandar Malečić

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Sep 25, 2016, 6:18:45 AM9/25/16
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I would be totally banned if I quoted here Madeleine Albright and Zbigniew Brzezinski, even without expressing my opinion. I suppose they both prefer bridges to walls. "Pretty good, relatively speaking" is an understatement. It's impossible to attract the most intelligent and talented people without doing at least something right. But it's difficult to tell whether specific individuals contribute to "pretty good" outcomes or to a slowly moving train wreck. David Bohm and Charlie Chaplin were created and rejected by the same mentality/system.

Aleksandar


Jack Ring

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Sep 25, 2016, 9:17:06 AM9/25/16
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First you all would be wise to agree on what you mean by ‘the economy’ and ‘not the economy’ 

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Ferris, Tim

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Sep 25, 2016, 12:20:51 PM9/25/16
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Everyone,

 

I have recently noticed a tendency in this group to open discussion of matters which are inherently political. Given the room for extreme emotional reactions to expression of political views, and the fact that the majority of the participants here are specialists in other fields who may think they know something about the technical fields of these discussions I do not see these discussions as particularly helpful.

 

Discussion tends to get very emotive when people start talking about things they do not really understand.

 

It would be more helpful for most participants here if the discussion focused on how to understand complex socio-technical systems when there is an intention to make some kind of systemic intervention in the situation.

 

Dr Tim Ferris

 

From: syss...@googlegroups.com [mailto:syss...@googlegroups.com] On Behalf Of Jack Ring
Sent: Sunday, 25 September 2016 2:17 PM
To: Sys Sci <syss...@googlegroups.com>
Subject: Re: [SysSciWG] Is antiglobalism good from the systems perspective?

 

First you all would be wise to agree on what you mean by ‘the economy’ and ‘not the economy’ 

On Sep 25, 2016, at 2:03 AM, 'Hillary Sillitto' via Sys Sci Discussion List <syss...@googlegroups.com> wrote:

 

I think the key globalisation issue is whether the economy exists to serve society, or vice versa. With rapidly increasing inequality it starts looking like the latter, and that threatens the moral legitimacy of the current economic order.

On Sunday, 25 September 2016, Steven Krane <sk5...@gmail.com> wrote:

It seems clear that the struggle is for profit.  Whose?  How?

 

Whose (principles)  = humanity, ref. The Declaration of Independence USA, among others, slavery notwithstanding.  Not > dollarized shareholder.

 

How:  A system designed to idealize the principles.

 

There may be others, but in terms of longevity and adherence to the principles of liberty and justice, the US govt is pretty good, relatively speaking.  Although, there are many corrosive forces at work and it is uncertain whether the Republic, the system, can withstand them without itself being corroded, there is reason to believe that men and women of goodwill can bring liberty and justice for all, by action, alone.  Reason is inert.


On Sep 24, 2016, at 4:52 PM, Aleksandar Malečić <ljma...@gmail.com> wrote:

"Trust" is the key word. It's potentially dangerous/destructive in the long run if people don't trust each other, or when they are fake and shallow. One candidate (the US elections) talks about bridges, so what the hey, the other one will talk about bridges. Etc.

Aleksandar

 

 

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Steve Wallis

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Sep 25, 2016, 3:11:23 PM9/25/16
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I think that this will become one of the most important questions of the 21st century. Without (one of) the greatest drivers of political unions (the military threat of other unions), I suspect that we are on the cusp of a new age. only time (and good scholarship) will tell what happens next.

From a systemic (and a-political) perspective (to the extent that such is objectively possible for me), it seems reasonable to say that all nations/states/etc. are inescapably part of the global socio/economic/etc system (sub-systems, etc). The (inter-related) questions becomes (imho) what part do they play in the system and "how systemic" are the relationships within and between those systems? of course, if some region were to opt for complete isolationism, that would cause certain problems.

The "right" of self-determination sounds wonderful. Can it be taken "too far?" On a micro-scale... What about those individuals in the USA who want to be considered "sovereign individuals?" Does that mean that the US should/might/must negotiate a new treaty with every individual? Or, is there some kind of generic treaty already in place so the US can say "sign here and take the rights and responsibilities of citizenship... or move somewhere else."

On the meso-scale, would it be possible/desirable for cities or small geographic areas to set themselves apart from their parent nation? A ton of paperwork... but might there be some benefits to renegotiation?

When we think about Brexit, that is (in some way) the situation. The UK is saying "we are out." And, now, all sides must renegotiate their relationships. Yes - a paperwork nightmare. But when the dust settles, my guess is that a few things will change and most relationships will remain the same. Does the UK have the resources to renegotiate everything with everybody from the ground-up? I wonder. more likely, they will start with existing EU agreements and work on a few key points... and rubber-stamp the rest.  Sure, if regional groups (Chechnya, Catalonia, California, etc.) want to disconnect from their formal parents, that will certainly cause some issues. But... what will "really" change (open to substantive and carefully considered intellectual conversation!)?

But isn't this one of the most important aspects of systems? Where agents have the ability or perhaps the requirement to renegotiate their relationships with other agents. And, in the process, create a more effective/mutually beneficial system?  Seems to me, this is the kind of situation where systems thinkers have the opportunity (and the ability) to do some of the fundamental thinking and to lead the way into the 21st century of global politics (if the USA had a lick of sense, the government would scrap an aircraft carrier or two and use the money to fund an awesome cadre of diplomats that would repay the cost many times over... but that is another story).

We don't have "the" answer yet (or a more useful collection of answers) but this topic would be worthy of a book or a few special issues for journals. What is the history of nations/regions/cities forming and disconnecting? What does the world look like from a systemic-political perspective... and how has looked through time? What are the benefits/detriments of a large number of unaligned states, what are the benefits/detriments a small number of mega-states at war (or threat of war, etc). Does Orwell's 1984 figure into this? If California (for a local example, for me) were to leave the US, would that weaken the US to the point that other states around the pacific rim would form a union sufficient to invade and thus threaten both California and the US? What about a more flexible set of military/economic treaties to enable the collective adaptation for such situations? it seems that systems thinkers should be on the policy staffs of nations (ant their sub-components) everywhere.

As long as we are careful to keep this within our systemic expertise and not be taunted by our personal prejudices, we can make a powerful

Thanks,

Steve

Steve Wallis

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Sep 25, 2016, 3:24:09 PM9/25/16
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Oh yes... on an only slightly related note... I'm not sure that "anti-globalism" is quite the same thing as regional independence.

I suppose it is possible for a separatist region to "build a wall" around itself to completely separate itself from the other nations of the world. That would certainly limit the benefits of the global systems. That, however, would also be destructive (as most people with an understanding of systems would understand).

And (if I may toss a note to Russia) there are probably way to support the (relative) independence of various regions that would enhance the economic strength of Russia!


Thanks,

Steve


On Saturday, September 24, 2016 at 12:28:16 PM UTC+2, Aleksandar Malečić wrote:

Steven Krane

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Sep 25, 2016, 3:50:54 PM9/25/16
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Many interesting links in the reading lists on X-archys.  IMO, systems thinkers avoiding discussions about systems of governance because they are perceived to be too emotionally charged is a dereliction of duty.  Who else will lead the way?  It is very simple to discuss the subject without reference to the individual actors who come and go and are themselves produced by the systems of interest.

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ohkami

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Sep 26, 2016, 8:03:54 AM9/26/16
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Everyone,

 

I am with Tim.

I am not interested in the recent discussions of the SysSciWG.

 

Cheers

+++++

Yoshiaki ‘Yoshi’ Ohkami, Fellow & ESEP, INCOSE

Professor Emeritus, Tokyo Institute of Technology

Executive Advisor for Keio Instiute of System

Design and Management

4-1-1 Hiyoshi, Kohoku-ku, Yokohama, Japan

Phone: +81 45 564 2480

+++++

Mike Dee

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Sep 26, 2016, 8:45:41 AM9/26/16
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Read Nasim Talib:  "Anti Fragile"   then ask the question again.  Globalism means bigness and centralism.   Do people (cultures) want to be centralized? Is bigness good?  Or is it dangerous?  To whom?  Think of the Borg from Startrek.  Great if you are the lead dog. What about the other 99.99% ?


On Sep 24, 2016 6:28 AM, "Aleksandar Malečić" <ljma...@gmail.com> wrote:
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Aleksandar Malečić

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Sep 28, 2016, 4:53:25 AM9/28/16
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I apologize to those who cannot care less about this and similar discussions, but I'll write one more comment in this discussion and that's it. Some people are supposed to know "what is Aleppo" because they will be mocked if they don't: http://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/09/us/politics/gary-johnson-aleppo.html?_r=0 It doesn't matter much (an opinion alert) whether or not those who can answer that question can improve the situation there. Here is an article by Zbigniew Brzezinski http://www.the-american-interest.com/2016/04/17/toward-a-global-realignment that occasionally looks like a horror show. At least that's another opinion, right or wrong or somewhere in between. The problem is (another opinion) what might happen if people who already are evil or not intelligent misunderstand something, if they are in a situation that is difficult to understand (especially to them).

Other than that, I reading list has been significantly enlarged recently.

Aleksandar

Jack Ring

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Sep 28, 2016, 11:04:59 AM9/28/16
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Let’s focus on Tim’s topic, “...how to understand complex socio-technical systems when there is an intention to make some kind of systemic intervention in the situation.
Let’s acknowledge the ‘socio’ aspect and be conscious of our potential naivety if we are ‘educated’ only in the technical aspects of the situation.
Let’s be aware that ‘socio’ includes ‘politic’ therefore that we must acknowledge and deal with the political facet. Ignoring it results in models that are both wrong and not useful.
Please consider that if and when we learn to devise interventions that Do No Harm then the negative side of the political aspect will auto-neutralize.
Perhaps the clue is to focus not on ‘supervised’ systems but on systems that auto-heal and how to initialize such systems. 
ELSE --- we become obsolete. 




Aleksandar Malečić

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Sep 29, 2016, 4:24:13 AM9/29/16
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It seems I won't keep my promise to be silent.

Of course there is a theory I prefer to others, but does it make sense to insist on one's favourite idea in every situation? I suppose that (anti)globalization includes everything people can affect, so maybe it is a situation when one might try that.

My choice is Terrence Deacon's "Incomplete Nature" (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Incomplete_Nature) as a theory that can address absolutely every system (Deacon himself isn't interested to do something in this direction). For instance, Carl Jung writes about psychological types (actually functions) that can, according to me ( :-) ) be connected to Aristotle's causes (elaborated by Deacon): senses to material cause, thoughts to efficient cause, emotions to formal cause, and intuition to final cause. There is for instance a documentary film on "dangerous knowledge" (the fifth heavily politically and psychologically charged part is uploaded by someone here: http://www.dailymotion.com/video/xdojop_dangerous-knowledge-5-5_shortfilms) about Gödel's failure to figure out intuition and being stuck in "thinking about thinking about thinking..."). Replace that formal cause/emotion with habit, ideology, or daily routine and there is perhaps something that addresses a collective/global situation and its constraints. "Do no harm" can also be described as "good life" and allowed or forbidden self-determination might affect good life. I'm writing (an article or) something about it, but I don't want to put myself in a "dangerous" situation to think too much whether or not it could or should contribute to anything. I'll "intervene" as much as I deserve to intervene.

Instead of the conclusion: I'm reading now an e-mail exchange I've found here: http://www.synapse9.com/ref/DonMcNeil

I collected them all in a Word document from which I'm deleting read parts, so I have no idea (search engines also don't help) from which message is this sentence: "I certainly don’t have much evidence that I know how to do that, however, but do feel strongly that if systems thinking is not useful to ordinary people it won’t be useful to science either." 


Aleksandar





Lenard Troncale

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Sep 29, 2016, 3:05:28 PM9/29/16
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Hi Aleksandar, (and silent google group denizens)

I still will not comment on “globalism” in re: to systems science. It is not because that is not a very important issue and application area (it is), but rather that I want to focus on developing a real, science-based, logically consistent and immensely detailed GST for my few remaining years. I judge it better to try to improve the tool to use on such complex systems issues rather than apply the current, possibly immature tools. Avoid unintended effects.

On that topic, I want to thank you for citing me in so much detail in your Rapport-award winning paper. I want also to publicly state that your statements about our work (and likewise those of Rousseau et. al. lately on that work) were correct and showed good understanding of the SSWG project. Sometime later I will write you about my notes on the overall depiction of “footprints…...” a very appropriate metaphor I might add.

I read just one of your pdf files from the URL for Don McNeil in your msg but it prompts this return email. It was a letter from Philip Henshaw to Don McNeil 9/17/05). I do remember both from my many years past of ISSS. In fact, Don re-established our connection by attending the last ISSS’16 in Boulder, Colorado. There are some interesting statements in this and probably the other letters that I am too deep in deadlines to address right now. But that one letter I read had a couple of requests I answer now.

My email for Henshaw or McNeil is lrtro...@cpp.edu
I do not have either of their emails but would like to have them.

My snail mail address is:
Dr. Len Troncale
Professor Emeritus and Past Chair
Dept. of Biological Sciences,
Founding Director Emeritus, Inst. for Advanced Systems Studies,
Currently Lecturer, Master in Systems Engineering
California State Polytechnic University
3801 W. Temple Ave.
Pomona, California 91768

All other email addresses are now no longer usable. If you are in contact with Don McNeil thru SSWG Google or directly, please tell him for me that I retained his flash drive from ISSS’16, could not get it to Marzolf, and would like to return it to him if he will give me his snail mail address. Again, about that one letter I did read (Henshaw to McNeil), it is important also to note that there are several people working on mapping GST history (e.g. Tom Marzolf, Kevin Dye, and others) that they should be in touch with to make a collaborative team of more success. I also want to note that Henshaw’s “loops of opportunity” sound a lot like what I call “potential fields” in Systems Processes Theory (SPT).

I hope to review the other letters when I can break free from other obligations. Aleks (what do they call you for short?), you are certainly widely read. I take it you followed up my references to Sunny Ayung by reading all of her books. Good.

Are you or Philip or Don or Tom going to be at INCOSE IW’17 or CSESR’17 in LA? We must plan to meet together if so. Thank you.

Len



Wolter Fabrycky

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Sep 29, 2016, 5:21:24 PM9/29/16
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I sense that we are becoming sensitive to utilizing our time and energy wisely. The latest from Len (backed by Tim) aligns with my own aspirations. Accordingly, I applaud his words: "I want to focus on developing a real, science-based, logically consistent and immensely detailed GST for my few remaining years".

More later, but excitement for my remaining years is coming from adapting the power of praxeology (Chester Barnard and Ludwig von Mises style) to enhance SE for our human-modified world, hoping to advance Systems Thinking, Engineering, and Analysis as STEM for grownups. 

Wolt Fabrycky 

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Lenard Troncale

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Sep 29, 2016, 6:54:33 PM9/29/16
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Sorry for such an obvious question, but is this THE  Fabrycky who is author of the most used Systems Engineering textbook internationally?

We at Cal Poly University College of Engineering (IME Dept) have just hired two young women to teach in our new Master’s in SE program and they both were “raised” on your text if that is so. Now, in full disclosure, I do criticize that text for not having enough systems science in its introductory chapter in an upcoming paper. But still one has to respect history, accomplishment and impact.

It is good that you are still “excited” about manipulating systems thinking to squeeze practical applications out of it. My hat is off to you. And as always I find in your msg a new source for systems understanding as I am a fish our of water in terms of praexiology. Must add it to the ever growing list. I have nearly 100 lifeworks in my latest paper that need to be synthesized for a true systems science to become a reality as a KB for SE.

Len

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Jack Ring

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Sep 29, 2016, 7:21:35 PM9/29/16
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Hi Wolt, 
I hope you are hearing great applause for your effort. 
In my view there are two ways to pursue a GST. One is to conceive what GST might and must be. The other is to discern successful systems and discover what made them successful. 
Your grounding in Omega Alpha strikes me as the preferred way. To me this means that we must advance Len’s pioneering work on homomorphs by grading their effect-iveness. 
I think this will entail a transformation from SE to System Effectiveness Management, particularly a model-centric approach that clarifies the fog of multiple, ambiguous factors.
FWIW, I think excellent observatories exist, notably, Formula 1 racing and World Cup Soccer, i.e., what’s unique about what the winners do and don’t do.
Jack
 
On Sep 29, 2016, at 2:20 PM, Wolter Fabrycky <wol...@vt.edu> wrote:

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Wolter Fabrycky

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Sep 30, 2016, 5:54:56 AM9/30/16
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Jack: You are confirming the praxeologist I always knew you to be! Wolt

- - - - - -

Ferris, Tim

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Sep 30, 2016, 6:11:52 AM9/30/16
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Jack,

 

You mention F1 racing.

 

A few months back I went to the London dinner from my Australian high school old scholars. Three of the 10 were engineers from very different professional experience. One in orthopaedic spare parts, one in one of the F1 teams and myself.

 

The F1 engineer talked about their approach to engineering, which was very much, I need something that does it, and I need it now, the race is tomorrow. Things like overnight removal of parts, fly several hours, machine in the workshop, fly back and fit, so the car can be on the grid for starting time. And in that process there is also some design of what will be machined.

 

He said at Monaco his team had to hitch a ride for parts on a plane owned by one of the other teams, because his team is one of the lower rank teams without funds to have their own plane. They might even keep the plane idling while waiting for the machining.

 

We contrasted that with the approach to SE commonly applied which cannot handle such a sense of urgency. (There are good reasons for the differences.)

 

Interestingly both need tools that enable prediction of the effect of proposed technical changes on the system to ensure proposed changes are likely to enable intended objectives.

 

Dr Tim Ferris

 

From: syss...@googlegroups.com [mailto:syss...@googlegroups.com] On Behalf Of Jack Ring


Sent: Friday, 30 September 2016 12:21 AM
To: Sys Sci <syss...@googlegroups.com>

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joseph simpson

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Sep 30, 2016, 9:50:23 AM9/30/16
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Tim:

Interesting supply chain story...

Appears to be a custom production system... that is not distributed..

New 3D printing and materials science advances have created a situation where a portable, distributed logistics support system is feasible.

About ten (10) years ago we demonstrated this concept on a large custom vehicle set, about ten different vehicle types with about 2000 total units.

Most small, high demand spare parts where not shipped or transported.

The manufacturing capability to produce the parts and necessary materials where shipped.

Then when a part was need it was produced on the spot.

This approach has a number of advantages, including the elimination of supply parts stock rooms and inventory.

Parts built on demand where they are needed is an interesting concept.

Take care, be good to yourself and have fun,

Joe



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“Reasonable people adapt themselves to the world. 

Unreasonable people attempt to adapt the world to themselves. 

All progress, therefore, depends on unreasonable people.”

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Jack Ring

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Sep 30, 2016, 12:04:53 PM9/30/16
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Hi Tim,
Thanks for this. 
Note that your experience was with a component engineer who was reacting to "I need something that does it, and I need it now which is a very real scenario. Prior to that someone with more of a systems view decided which ‘does it was needed. Not just what it must be but what effect it must have when installed. The guys back at the shop then decided what it must be and be made of.
Also, (at least among winners) someone figured out what else would have to be adjusted or adapted when the new part was installed.

FWIW, I have always been amused by the favorite example used by the SysML project wherein they needed to decrease a vehicles stopping distance. They go through all sorts of modeling and devise a rather complex set of changes. IMO all they had to do was increase tire width by about 2 centimeters thereby also winning the parsimony award.

As my long-time friend, Bob Bondurant agrees, races are won in the shop and lost on the track.

Cheers,

Jack Ring

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Sep 30, 2016, 12:15:09 PM9/30/16
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Hi Joe,
Given the limited choice of materials 3D printing currently allows I would not want to drive an all-3D vehicle in F1 scenarios.
cheers,


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Hillary Sillitto

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Sep 30, 2016, 1:44:02 PM9/30/16
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Alexander

To see a discussion on the kind of systems methods that are appropriate to this kind of issue, see this presentation, particularly slide (12) on Mike Jackson's 'system of systems methodologies', by Mike Yearworth:

The globalisation issue is definitely in the right hand side of this figure, coercive/conflictual, so conventional SE approaches (that assume the possibility of agreement on the problem to be solved or resolved, and on the measures of effectiveness for a solution) are not appropriate. 

Best regards

Hillary



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Jack Ring

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Sep 30, 2016, 3:31:20 PM9/30/16
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Once you understand that a system orchestrates dissimilar entities in a way that achieves Fit For Purpose — or not, therefore can be unexcelled — or disappointing, then you will see globalization as a system that excels — or not. 
The key becomes the intent and ability of the entities to arrive at an agreed end-state or trajectory of time-ordered end-states. if the community has a goal and the system is a coherent and complete allocation of goals to entities (Wymore’s ‘NOT’ paper) then globalization will maximize group benefit including group acceptance of a less-then-imagined situation.

include very few who have actually created systems let alone global scale systems. 

Better we should also learn from the GE’s, ABB’s, IBM’s, Eisenhower’s, von Braun’s, Rickover’s, Moore’s, Packard’s, etc.
Jack
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Michael Dee

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Sep 30, 2016, 3:43:58 PM9/30/16
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Globalism is about big centralized social systems, too big to fail, to maintain the privileged position of those in charge (taxpayers underwrite the risk; goldman sachs gets the profits).

Refer to John Gall's book "Systemantics",  chapter 17:  Rule:  When big systems fail, the failure is often big.

Ate we not safer with smaller localized systems?


Jack Ring

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Sep 30, 2016, 3:55:35 PM9/30/16
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Globalism CAN be about pursuit of big de-centralized socioeconomic co-learning system.

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Hillary Sillitto

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Sep 30, 2016, 5:51:42 PM9/30/16
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Jack

True.  But, while it would be nice to try out an ensemble of globalisations in parallel, in our world we only get to try one version at a time, and the set-up time and scope for 'doing harm' are both considerable. 

Consider the two conditions you set out in your previous post: 'if the community has a goal and [if] the system is a coherent and complete allocation of goals to entities (Wymore’s ‘NOT’ paper) then globalization will maximize group benefit including group acceptance of a less-then-imagined situation'. Again true; but I believe neither condition applies in the real world to the global community of humans on Earth. (Looking at Syria, for example, the various actors have seriously conflicting goals and values, and attempts to find common cause have, for the moment, failed.) None of the actors or organisations you mention had to get agreement of all the world's communities. They were/are able to address the concerns of a relatively small and relatively homogeneous group of stakeholders, so can be guided by a single (or small set of compatible) MoE(s). That's a different, and easier, form of the system game, not least because you can work out whether and when you are succeeding.

Best

Hillary


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Jack Ring

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Sep 30, 2016, 7:17:29 PM9/30/16
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Hillary,
Apparently I do not comprehend your perspective on globalism. Seems to me we do not have 'only one version at a time.’ Seems to me we have used technology and other means to interface and interoperate many nodes of human existence and behavior such that there are hundreds of threads of interaction spanning enough nodes to qualify as global. 
If you have a favorite example of or definition of globalism please advise.
Jack
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Hillary Sillitto

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Oct 1, 2016, 4:19:42 AM10/1/16
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Jack

Ah yes: First, language the project!

Globalism or globalisation is widely understood to be the current global economic order that seeks to maximise trade and gdp growth. It gives rise to the Trump/Brexit/growth in populist parties on the European mainland/Putin/IS phenomenon where those who feel they are losing out become increasingly active against globalisation, in various ways.

Best

Hillary

Hillary Sillitto

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Oct 1, 2016, 5:13:14 AM10/1/16
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This weekend's 'Economist' has a leader and a special report on the whys, wherefores and angsts of globalisation. For those interested in this topic it gives a very good overview. Maybe these issues are for the domain experts, as others have suggested.

Jack Ring

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Oct 1, 2016, 5:22:33 AM10/1/16
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Hillary,
Thank you for this. 
Please consider that you may be describing a Europia perspective but not how other regions address globalization. 
Certainly when northern countries rape the natural resources of southern countries that form of globalization is disgusting. Likewise when Japan seeks to colonize Mexico. However, when Japan and Germany build automobiles in the U.S. for sale in the U.S. this is not maximizing trade. It is rationalizing trade. Likewise when Ford builds automobiles in Mexico for sale in Mexico and when U.S. semiconductor companies operate in Ireland this helps Ireland, not maximizes trade by U.S.

The larger aspect of globalization is concerned with control of the monetary system as in One World Currency and and eventually control of the peasants as in One World Government (by the few). Here, those who sense the return to colonization are actively resisting the Soros, Rothchild, Putin, Mohammed, players and their soldiers, e.g., the Clintons. 

Accordingly, I seriously doubt that only one kind of globalization is widely understood. However, I appreciate knowing a little more about what you mean by the term.

FWIW, I suggest you reconsider your view of Trump. Notice that those arrayed against him are the One World cabal. Could the Brexit be a classic revolt by the peasants?

Jack

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Jack Ring

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Oct 1, 2016, 5:32:32 AM10/1/16
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If we can avoid political ideologies this can be an enlightening interchange on what happens when a node in a system pursues rewards that are not in the best interest of the system. Here, again, I encourage everyone to read Wymore’s paper "NOT:  Subsystem Optimization IMPLIES System SUBOptimization”  
I stress this because I think our current SE practices result in systems that when made to interoperate become selfish and require expensive ‘integration’ projects.
Jack

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Hillary Sillitto

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Oct 1, 2016, 6:27:26 AM10/1/16
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Jack

Absolutely, Brexit (and Trump?) are classic peasant revolts!

Hillary

joseph simpson

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Oct 1, 2016, 9:50:59 AM10/1/16
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Jack:

Interesting point of view..

It may be a simple case of a non-uniform value system (many local value systems) conflicting with dominate global value metrics.

The information density required for an  effective global value system accounting system is extremely high.

The conflict between top-down hierarchical (global) large-scale systems and bottom-up networked (local) small-scale systems drive the generation of chaos.

For example, global manufacturing of an aircraft.

As each individual aircraft becomes more integrated by design and each aircraft component contains many adaptive functions, the aircraft design
information density 'goes off the charts.'

Couple this extreme information density with a global supply chain and you have a recipe for manufacturing disaster. 

The many different human cultures and languages contribute to unexpected conflict and damage in the supply chain.

Two primary themes are developing response to these trends.

The first theme is the centralization of the design, manufacturing and integration of complex, multifunctional systems (adaptive aircraft wings)  in one country.

The second theme is the removal of humans for the design, manufacturing and integration process.

Take care, be good to yourself and have fun,

Joe





Jack Ring

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Oct 1, 2016, 10:30:46 AM10/1/16
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Hillary,
Do some systems contain peasant nodes?  Do they revolt, as in cascading failures?
How about in a system of systems, especially those wherein the co-opted constituent can no longer continue to do its original mission as effectively? Most schemes for SE of SoS  do not attend to this situation.
Jack

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Jack Ring

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Oct 1, 2016, 10:33:10 AM10/1/16
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Joe,
You may find it interesting to compare global manufacturing of an aircraft with global design and manufacturing of an automobile, particularly the 2000 Ford as facilitated by Warfield’s Interactive Management and Interpretive Structural Modeling and the subsequent design and manufacturing of the Ford Fusion. 
Quite different outcomes when IM is used to normalize multi-node ambitions.
Jack

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joseph simpson

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Oct 1, 2016, 10:41:32 AM10/1/16
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Jack:

Are you able to provide any specific references to this activity and/or documents detailing the events?

I have access to the documents and processes from the Ford evaluation of hydrogen fuel based automobiles.

But I do not have access to the Ford Fusion material.

Take care and have fun,

Joe 

ken...@purdue.edu

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Oct 1, 2016, 10:55:28 AM10/1/16
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I have been using Jackson's System Approaches to Management for a "survey course" for undergraduates with upper division standing at Purdue. I am favorably impressed with the breadth of coverage of the origins of theory from many disciplines that we all should be exposed to. What he presents about epistemology should cause us to realize that when we start wringing our hands about the lack of a scientific basis for systems engineering, we may be criticizing ourselves within the framework of a particular scientific method that may not wholly apply to the study of systems.
I like that Jack says we need to "also learn" from the do'ers. The key word is "also," i.e., we also should not exclude the thinking done in the academy as a source for learning.
- Bob (a former do'er who is now  professor in the academy)

Jack Ring

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Oct 1, 2016, 11:20:44 AM10/1/16
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Joe,
Are you aware of Dr. Scott Staley? He was involved in the original Ford 2000 project. I understood from John that Scott was instrumental in applying IM in the Fusion project, particularly the electric version.
He is now retired and I have not asked permission to reveal his contact information.
Jack
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Jack Ring

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Oct 1, 2016, 11:27:27 AM10/1/16
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Yea, verily. 
And it would be wonderful if the Academy did thinking AND assessing, particularly assessing why system projects fail to meet sponsor expectations, especially after gross overruns and schedule slips.  
At present the SE community does not have a good way of learning from our mistakes although we have plenty of mistakes.
For example John Gall’s books SystemAntics and System Bible should be very prominent in our dialog but are rarely mentioned.
Jack
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Hillary Sillitto

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Oct 1, 2016, 12:16:25 PM10/1/16
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Jack,

You said 'this can be an enlightening interchange on what happens when a node in a system pursues rewards that are not in the best interest of the system... Subsystem Optimization IMPLIES System SUBOptimization”. I stress this because I think our current SE practices result in systems that when made to interoperate become selfish and require expensive ‘integration’ projects'

I LOVE  your notion of 'selfish' systems. I have seen this a lot, it is indeed a matter of optimising the subsystems - the parts - at the expense of the whole.

I think it is driven by government contracting practices, where the competition is won by the lowest bidder who then has a very strong incentive to push problems out of scope. Since the customer side project manager is incentivised to bring the project in on time and budget, s/he is incentivised to conspire with the contractor to push problems and unknowns out of scope. If the project in question over spends and over runs, guess what - the overspend is paid for out of the contingency held at enterprise level - and guess what, that is where the integration budget would have come from if it hadn't got spent on the programme over-run. 

So you are right, the current practices so SE and PM, which Derek would characterise as 'reductionist', are almost designed to produce this effect. (Selfish projects create selfish systems?) One of the particular pathologies I used to rail against is the tendency to agree work share before there is a stable and feasible architecture. This effectively locks the commercial architecture into the technical architecture before you know what a good technical architecture would look like.

One partial solution, of course, is to do a better job of managing interdependencies between the parts of the system (of systems), which means you need to have a viable and affordable solution architecture before the commercial architecture is locked down. So better and faster interdependency management is required - SE in this phase needs to be systemic, not systematic. 

This brings me to the other fascinating (to me) point that has just emerged in this thread - Warfield's involvement with Ford. Around 2000, I was involved with with one of the Ford European subsidiaries ( no longer part of Ford) who were at the time taking on board the Ford corporate SE process. What I remember most is the particularly neat way they had of identifying, describing and agreeing interdependencies between subsystems. (Their staged lifecycle model also looked very like the recently described Incremental Commitment Spiral Model.) Years later it occurred to me that John Warfield's fingerprints seemed to be all over the interdependency management method, and of course you have just confirmed that he was indeed involved with Ford in that period.

Another globalisation anecdote: Ford were at the time imposing their common platform policy across the whole conglomerate. It seemed a good idea at the time, and the subsidiary I was working with embraced it whole heartedly. However, they were part of the Premium Automotive Group, and it turned out their brand DNA was being corrupted by the imposed generic platforms. I noticed a couple of years later that Ford changed their policy so the PAG were allowed/required to develop their own platforms. The company I was working with has since gone from strength to strength, under new ownership, with its own new platforms.

I find it interesting that VW Audi Group have managed to develop a successful cross-car-line platform policy without, apparently, damaging the DNA of their premium brands, but on the contrary, improving the quality of their commodity brands.

Cheers

Hillary Sillitto

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Oct 1, 2016, 12:26:58 PM10/1/16
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Jack

Peasant revolts are probably best characterised in complexity theory terms, as flipping the system over a potential barrier into a new 'attractor basin'. On a different tack, Christos Ellinas at Bristol has done some nice work on cascading failures in complex networks.

My preferred scheme for SoS involves explicitly separating support for the 'SoS use cases' from the 'system use cases' - see my IS2013 paper on 'Composable Capability' - otherwise you get excessive resource contention and the system can't do both jobs at the same time. Rumour has it that HMS Sheffield was using her satcom systems whe she was hit by the Argentine Exocet in the Falklands in 1982, and that either the satcom system was interfering with the ESM system and surveillance radar, or the ESM and surveillance radar couldn't operate at the same time as the satcom system. I'm not sure if it's true, or if so, if that's the whole story, but as a narrative it illustrates the issue. 

Cheers

Jack Ring

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Oct 1, 2016, 12:37:56 PM10/1/16
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I was told at the time that the Exocet was not unique to Argentina so that the Sheffield data base considered the Exocet as ‘one of ours’ thus saw no threat.and did not bother to assess the trajectory. 
If this is the case then it is an example of the need to design a system that will Do No Harm wherein the Sheffield would have assessed the trajectory as the indicator of Friend or Foe rather than using the label as the key.

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Hillary Sillitto

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Oct 1, 2016, 1:12:59 PM10/1/16
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Sounds possible. The Royal Navy certainly had Exocets at the time (and possibly still does).

According to a book I read recently, the Argentinian pilots did a damned good job of keeping below radar coverage, doing a momentary pop up to get a final fix on target coordinates while not staying high long enough for the defending radars to form a track, and then optimising their final run in and launch profile. Aided by the Argentinian navy having two destroyers of the same class as HMS Sheffield, so they could practice tactics... 

Ferris, Tim

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Oct 2, 2016, 9:35:22 AM10/2/16
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Joe,

 

I agree 3-D printing  would appear to have very interesting supply chain opportunities.

 

It would be interesting to investigate two initial scenarios as ways of getting it to happen:

1.       3-D printing for replacement parts based on either reverse engineering of failed components. I suspect this is likely to be very difficult to do.

2.       Design of many components for 3-D manufacture and shipping the relevant data files instead of spares as the support method. I suspect this is the way to get benefit quickly.

 

Dr Tim Ferris

 

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Unreasonable people attempt to adapt the world to themselves. 

All progress, therefore, depends on unreasonable people.”

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Ferris, Tim

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Oct 2, 2016, 9:55:55 AM10/2/16
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Jack,

 

The F1 engineer I was speaking to was reasonably high up in his team. But he was describing the attitude in contrast to the very big bureaucracy of change notices etc the SE seems to get associated with.

 

Your story about the improvement of the braking illustrates a cause of complaint against SE from many. I think that raises a question: how can we work so that appropriately parsimonious solutions are developed (not taking parsimony to the unreasonable extent that leads to things going wrong.)

Michael Dee

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Oct 2, 2016, 2:00:02 PM10/2/16
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… And William Wallace’s revolt, the American Revolution, and the Zulu wars were peasant revolts.   Magna Carta the result of a peasant revolt perhaps?

 

Is anti-globalism good from the systems perspective?   This is the question in this discussion thread.   This begs the question “What is meant by Good”.   What is the value proposition implied here?   Who gets to define “good”?

 

From a systems perspective, the first thing to do is to identify the problem we are trying to solve (we don’t even agree on that), and construct a value proposition.  Only then can we begin to define “good”, or even to decide if there is such a thing as “good”.

 

The real question we should be asking is this:   Is systems science able to predict what globalism (or anti globalism) will make our world look like in the future?  What are our alternatives?  What are the trade-offs involved.  Am I a termite at the whim of elites, or am I a man?   Let’s look at past history to give us a clue…

 

Aren’t we just putting window dressing on the same old solution:  Is there any difference between the goals of the Globalist movement and the goals of Economic Fascism or world socialism?  Increasingly smaller numbers of elites with ever increasing personal and monopoly power, promising us wonderful benefits if we would just trust them and go along.    But what will the system really do? (Think POSIWID.)   Does George Soros cares about poor little old me!  What problem does he solve, other than increasing his own power?

 

The Marxists / Bolsheviks made big promises too. Or have we forgotten? Anybody ever read Solzhenitsyn?   Pasternak?  Grossman?  Or were they just malcontents who refused to see the wonderful benefits offered to them by their totalitarian masters.   Mere peasants, I tell you!

 

Why should anyone believe that Globalism (which requires a police state to enforce it) be different from any other totalitarian system like the Marxo-Fascist empires of the past and present (read Vasily Grossman’s “Life and Fate” for the analysis that the two are the same).  

 

For this we have real life experience, and need no more theories.

 

Oh to be a used-car salesman in the world of politics!

 

MD

Jack

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Jack Ring

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Oct 2, 2016, 2:32:10 PM10/2/16
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Don’t throw the baby out with the bath water. 
Perhaps you are seeing a perverted version of globalism. If so then let’s figure out how to overcome the perverts. 

If globalism intends to interoperate regions that have different capabilities so that each benefits from other’s capabilities is that the specification of a viable/sustainable system?
Jack

joseph simpson

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Oct 2, 2016, 2:56:33 PM10/2/16
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There has been some work in this area in the past.

Please see these links for some background:



Take care and have fun,

Joe



Jack

Jack
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Michael Dee

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Oct 2, 2016, 3:00:03 PM10/2/16
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I’d be all for “Globalism” if Globalism meant “maximization of human freedom”.   Good luck.

 

Commerce on a level playing field is arguably a good thing, right up to the point where a country no longer possesses the skills or ability to produce on its own, at which point it can be held hostage.   But cost shifting pollution upon a third world country, for example, is not a good thing.  Good maybe for the globalists running WalMart and the elites owning the production facilities.  Not good for the average guy in either developed or undeveloped countries.  And with the number of producers being reduced, monopolies are formed and defended by the vary government they paid for.

 

To me the ultimate dangers are “too big to fail” and the attempt at one-world government.   To where does one run to find freedom when POSIWID takes over (and it will).     Isn’t this what the dystopia thinkers of the early 20th century were warning us about?  Isn’t this what Ayn Rand lived through and warned against?   Vasily Grossman?

 

Regarding perversion of globalism…

 

It is not globalism, per se, that I am opposed.    I am opposed to the limitation of human freedom under the guise of “the greater good”, and the transformation of human existence to that of a termite colony.   Who gets to decide the greater good?  

 

Civilization, to me, is that which enables individuals to self-determine (including the inherent trades therein).    I see nothing in the work of today’s globalist elites (Soros, Clinton, the Bush family Mssr. Hollande, etc.) that indicates an interest in anything but their own power for the sake of power.

Jack Ring

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Oct 2, 2016, 7:49:38 PM10/2/16
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U.S. has been doing this since Desert Storm because the drawings for many battle tank parts do not exist. c.f., http://www.geomagic.com/en/community/case-studies/

Jack Ring

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Oct 2, 2016, 7:54:17 PM10/2/16
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Tim, 
I was not disputing your story, only highlighting that someone first figured out what was needed.
Regarding parsimony, we can start by simply asking the question Is this the least complex design that will create the desired effect? Our current SE recipes do not include such challenges.

Jack Ring

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Oct 2, 2016, 8:43:32 PM10/2/16
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Freedom from or freedom to or what, exactly?
Let’s not create yet another forum babble. Let’s figure out how to foster a dialog. 
The material Joe Simpson just posted is intriguing. 

How about we form a work group?
Jack

Hillary Sillitto

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Oct 3, 2016, 4:20:10 AM10/3/16
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Mike, 

Free individuals can't build infrastructure or provide societal resilience. In modern society, and in an earth of anything like current population, people are interdependent, and freedoms come with responsibilities and mutual obligations. Without the right balance between freedom and interdependence, rights and responsibilities, society collapses and we end up in a "Mad Max" nightmare world.

I still like the utopian principle that no one who aspires to high office should be trusted with it. Senior politicians should be appointed from the ranks of those who do NOT want the job!

The Buckie Game is interesting. Peter Head, in the UK, is trying to do something similar.

Jack, have you a proposal for the scope and purpose of the working group?

Cheers

Hillary
Jack
Jack
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Hillary Sillitto

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Oct 3, 2016, 4:27:21 AM10/3/16
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A good principle for achieving interoperability is to regard the in service change process as one of the architectural elements for achieving ad hoc interoperability and implementing improvements, as well as for fixing problems and breakages. Design systems to be easy to adapt. Clean interfaces; good alignment of functional and physical architectures; localise accuracy issues and fix errors within each subsystem so they don't propagate through the system, to avoid having to do extensive adjustments across the whole system any time you change a part.

If every work task, from the start of a new conceptual design to fixing the last B52 in service, is handled as an ECP rather than a clean sheet design, mindsets change, as do the way we have to think about requirements. Some organisations I know of do exactly this.

Hillary

On Monday, 3 October 2016, Jack Ring <jri...@gmail.com> wrote:
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