'Russia's new middle classes are protesting the most'
Avnish Jolly
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/home/opinion/edit-page/Russias-new-middle-classes-are-protesting-the-most/articleshow/11157339.cms#.Tu8b_pPQlhY.email
Dec 19, 2011,
Nikolai Ssorin-Chaikov teaches social anthropology at Cambridge
University, England. Currently in Moscow, he spoke with Srijana Mitra
Das about anti-government protests in Russia, a changed public mood
and influences like the Arab Spring and a global economic slowdown:
Why are we suddenly seeing Russians protesting?
Well, parliamentary elections were held in early December. These were
to flag off party leaders campaigning for the presidency, Vladimir
Putin being the front-runner. Suddenly, evidence of electoral fraud
was found - balloting papers had been falsified, it was clear the
ruling party had tried to massage the voting material to boost their
numbers drastically. However, even so, they received less than 50%
votes, a significant decline from previous elections, such as 64% in
2007's parliamentary elections.
So, they didn't manage to cheat as much as they wanted to. This
evidence started people off. It surprised them because people
generally thought the ruling party would get overwhelming support -
which it didn't. That suddenly opened up the political space to people
thinking of alternatives. People were happy to discover the position
of Putin and the ruling party is more fragile than everyone thought.
There's excitement and vivacity on the streets now. I was stepping out
of a metro station when i saw a group of young people chanting, "Down
with Putin"...this is very different to the previous mood of placid
opposition.
But Putin's been strong for years - why such dissent now? Have
international events had an impact?
Certainly, i think the Arab Spring had a remarkable impact here. Also,
the way new media's been mobilised to get people together had an
impact. The timing of the protests also has to do with the current
President Medvedev, whom everyone knows is Putin's candidate, but
who's a rather different person to Putin himself. Medvedev's term was
very important. The time-lapse between Putin and Medvedev made people
understand you can actually do without Putin, that he's not the only
leader for Russia!
Alongside, the global economic crisis has been very bad in Russia. The
new middle classes, which gained the most from the relative economic
and political stability of the Putin era, when businesses developed,
jobs and welfare were available, are suffering and protesting the
most. There's a view that the government did nothing to protect the
Russian economy from the crisis. That's been an important factor.
Anthropological studies of politics have demonstrated that political
systems today are often less stable than they appear - anthropologists
were registering discontent in North Africa even before the Arab
Spring. This is in contrast with political science, 'Sovietology' in
particular that could not predict the collapse of the Soviet Union
because they over-estimated its internal stability.
Is the government allowing protests freely?
Right after the election, there was a protest with a serious crackdown
on people accused of causing public disturbance. But for the next big
rally on December 10, the government backed off and let people
through. For the first time, the government let TV news items on the
protest be shown... their tactics changed. For the next rally, the
government announced an obligatory state school test in Russian for
all children on the Saturday the protest was scheduled.
Although students are normally let off early on Saturdays, this day
was compulsory attendance for students and teachers. The next Saturday
rally saw a similar test in maths announced! So, the government has
withdrawn from the repressive measures it would usually use, it's
trying to create situations where people can't go - but it's having
the opposite effect.
Other strategies aren't working either. Putin holds a direct telephone
conversation with citizens every few months. This time, it happened
around the rallies. When people asked him about these, he was
dismissive of those protesting - which gave the cause more publicity!
As more people began joining, opposition leaders said they were
thankful to Putin for providing free publicity.