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Austerity Re-Visited
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flanier
May 20, 2013, 5:41:36 AM5/20/13
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Not everyone agrees with Paul Krugman- and, I'm guessing, Werner would
be in the front of that parade- Krugman has been criticizing some
policymakers’ obsession with austerity for years.
Krugman's position has recently come under fire after a widely-cited
paper by Harvard economists Carmen Reinhart and Ken Rogoff purported
to prove that high levels of government debt correlated with economic
downturns, turned out to be riddled with errors. For their part,
Reinhart and Rogoff have tried to disown the austerity movement --
which included Rep. Paul Ryan (R-Wis.), the U.K.’s George Osborne and
other prominent politicians -- which cited their research as a way to
justify their policies.
Earlier this month former President Bill Clinton backed Krugman’s
argument that a laser-sharp focus on cutting the deficit can lead to
high unemployment and other economic problems, saying “It's obvious
that if you overdo austerity, you get Europe.”
Most knowledgeable folk applaud the current shrinking defict but warn
of difficulties in the out years if some progams are not fixed. You
know which they are, I'm sure, but the defense program is not one of
them.
be in the front of that parade- Krugman has been criticizing some
policymakers’ obsession with austerity for years.
Krugman's position has recently come under fire after a widely-cited
paper by Harvard economists Carmen Reinhart and Ken Rogoff purported
to prove that high levels of government debt correlated with economic
downturns, turned out to be riddled with errors. For their part,
Reinhart and Rogoff have tried to disown the austerity movement --
which included Rep. Paul Ryan (R-Wis.), the U.K.’s George Osborne and
other prominent politicians -- which cited their research as a way to
justify their policies.
Earlier this month former President Bill Clinton backed Krugman’s
argument that a laser-sharp focus on cutting the deficit can lead to
high unemployment and other economic problems, saying “It's obvious
that if you overdo austerity, you get Europe.”
Most knowledgeable folk applaud the current shrinking defict but warn
of difficulties in the out years if some progams are not fixed. You
know which they are, I'm sure, but the defense program is not one of
them.
Werner
May 20, 2013, 7:29:12 AM5/20/13
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forbi...@gmail.com
May 20, 2013, 9:42:11 AM5/20/13
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You should know that the Carmen Reinhart and Ken Rogoff
conclusions have been discredited. They ignored data
that didn't lead to their "conclusion".
Sometimes watching Colbert can be informative.
conclusions have been discredited. They ignored data
that didn't lead to their "conclusion".
Sometimes watching Colbert can be informative.
BIG BIRD
May 20, 2013, 9:54:16 AM5/20/13
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"Werner" <whet...@mac.com> wrote in message
news:6fa0070e-9cd5-4381...@googlegroups.com...
: See
:
http://www.timesunion.com/opinion/article/Letter-The-real-truth-is-our-country-is-bankrupt-4508732.php
:
is that where you rustle up all those filthy,slimy,stinkin,angry, old rich white
dicks yall suckin white boy ???
Werner
May 20, 2013, 10:19:21 AM5/20/13
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Economists pointed to errors in the spreadsheet used by R&R, which generated an animated debate. R&R admitted the error, corrected their spreadsheets and concluded that the error merely moderated their numbers without substantially weakening the underlying argument.
http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2013-05-17/news/39336696_1_external-debt-public-debt-government-debt
http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2013-05-17/news/39336696_1_external-debt-public-debt-government-debt
forbi...@gmail.com
May 20, 2013, 10:23:04 AM5/20/13
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On Monday, May 20, 2013 7:19:21 AM UTC-7, Werner wrote:
> Economists pointed to errors in the spreadsheet used by R&R, which generated an animated debate. R&R admitted the error, corrected their spreadsheets and concluded that the error merely moderated their numbers without substantially weakening the underlying argument.
>
> http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2013-05-17/news/39336696_1_external-debt-public-debt-government-debt
What you are engaged in is conclusion driven research.
> Economists pointed to errors in the spreadsheet used by R&R, which generated an animated debate. R&R admitted the error, corrected their spreadsheets and concluded that the error merely moderated their numbers without substantially weakening the underlying argument.
>
> http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2013-05-17/news/39336696_1_external-debt-public-debt-government-debt
There is no tipping point.
Yes, higher debt can cause problems but there are already problems
and austerity during a recession or at the beginning of the recovery
creates more problems than the higher debt.
Werner
May 20, 2013, 10:30:44 AM5/20/13
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You are engaged in wishful thinking based on faith and/or hope. History disagrees.
forbi...@gmail.com
May 20, 2013, 10:36:19 AM5/20/13
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On Monday, May 20, 2013 7:30:44 AM UTC-7, Werner wrote:
> You are engaged in wishful thinking based on faith and/or hope. History disagrees.
History does not. That they wouldn't give up their data for peer review
> You are engaged in wishful thinking based on faith and/or hope. History disagrees.
should serve as evidence that they knew there was a flaw. That when they
did give it up they gave it up to a student should be further evidence that
they thought they could slip one by.
Why would you return to a dry well for water? Anything they now say
should fall into the "extraordinary" claims category, requiring
extraordinary evidence. If they cared about their reputations they
should have submitted for peer review from day one.
flanier
May 20, 2013, 3:12:34 PM5/20/13
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What wonders what evidence would have to be presented that Werner
would accept that his position is incorrect. Usually, as in the
case of those who listen only to the commentators of Fox, there are no
facts acceptable. Werner is in that cohort but that is my opinion...I
could be wrong.
Did Werner hold the same opinion when Bush ran up the debt? What did
he say when the budget was balanced under Clinton? What would he cut
to balance the budget now? So many questions, so little reponse.
would accept that his position is incorrect. Usually, as in the
case of those who listen only to the commentators of Fox, there are no
facts acceptable. Werner is in that cohort but that is my opinion...I
could be wrong.
Did Werner hold the same opinion when Bush ran up the debt? What did
he say when the budget was balanced under Clinton? What would he cut
to balance the budget now? So many questions, so little reponse.
brian
May 20, 2013, 4:05:26 PM5/20/13
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On Mon, 20 May 2013 12:12:34 -0700 (PDT), flanier <bfla...@gmail.com>
wrote:
What would change in your world if Werner were to change his opinions
and beliefs to those you hold?
wrote:
and beliefs to those you hold?
Werner
May 20, 2013, 4:42:34 PM5/20/13
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Except for movies and business networks Werner largely stays away from TV. Occasionally Werner tunes in to Fox and MSNBC, but rarely.
Werner
May 20, 2013, 4:56:05 PM5/20/13
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Thanks, Brian. I've pointed out before this is not about me. The tragedy unfolds with or without me. I suspect the situation is beyond those who actually influence society. The powerful in the Kremlin could not avoid their tragedy. Their counterparts in DC likely understand how helpless Soviet rulers must have felt a generation ago.
flanier
May 21, 2013, 7:45:00 AM5/21/13
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On May 20, 1:05 pm, brian <bfunk...@cox.net> wrote:
> What would change in your world if Werner were to change his opinions and beliefs to those you hold?
I'm somewhat nonplused by the comment.
> What would change in your world if Werner were to change his opinions and beliefs to those you hold?
I think I was questioning Werner's view of the economic reality of
today. I am not suggesting Werner change his views to mine (if I sorta
inderstand what you ask); further, my views are inconsequential . I'm
questioning his.
brian
May 21, 2013, 3:33:12 PM5/21/13
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On Tue, 21 May 2013 04:45:00 -0700 (PDT), flanier <bfla...@gmail.com>
wrote:
Sorry, didn't mean to confuse, I shouldn't have intruded. I was just
curious if changing was you goal.
wrote:
curious if changing was you goal.
flanier
May 21, 2013, 3:52:56 PM5/21/13
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On May 21, 12:33 pm, brian <bfunk...@cox.net> wrote:
> On Tue, 21 May 2013 04:45:00 -0700 (PDT), flanier <bflan...@gmail.com>
confuse...right? In any case, I don't think anyone or anything can
change Werner's view of reality. I could be wrong about that. They
say you can't treach an old dog new tricks. Ask Globy what facts
would change his opinion of the Church he trumpets here.
It just seems that a Werner view would make a person very
unhappy....but you know he could be correct. There probably were a
cadre of Romans 200 years before the fall that were the Cassandras of
their day...and they were right.
> On Tue, 21 May 2013 04:45:00 -0700 (PDT), flanier <bflan...@gmail.com>
> Sorry, didn't mean to confuse, I shouldn't have intruded. I was just curious if changing was you goal.
Intrude-Intrude <Grin> That's what this forum is for...to
confuse...right? In any case, I don't think anyone or anything can
change Werner's view of reality. I could be wrong about that. They
say you can't treach an old dog new tricks. Ask Globy what facts
would change his opinion of the Church he trumpets here.
It just seems that a Werner view would make a person very
unhappy....but you know he could be correct. There probably were a
cadre of Romans 200 years before the fall that were the Cassandras of
their day...and they were right.
brian
May 22, 2013, 12:12:59 AM5/22/13
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On Tue, 21 May 2013 12:52:56 -0700 (PDT), flanier <bfla...@gmail.com>
wrote:
As you have noted, I too lean a bit down that road myself, but
certainly not as a libertarian. Unhappiness seems to becoming our
national mood. Must be all that fine air and water we are
consuming.........
wrote:
certainly not as a libertarian. Unhappiness seems to becoming our
national mood. Must be all that fine air and water we are
consuming.........
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