New Year after the Old Year
Max Vasilatos
remarkable, drop in the violent crime rate, particularly the homicide rate,
in
major cities across the US. I've been following this for the last four
years,
I have a degree in criminal justice and forensic psych, and nobody has a lot
of grip on why it happened in 2009, if you want to throw your theory into
the ring go ahead.
Obama heavy duty brain waves work for me. Also the stock market rebound.
Jess Anderson
Nils Hammer:
> Madison Wisc.
> Hogg Hall?
Hogg is the name of a Texas oil tycoon. He named a daughter Ima.
The UW-Madison dormitory is named Ogg Hall.
=====
Max Vasilatos:
> [] in 2009 there was a remarkable [] drop in the violent crime
> rate, particularly the homicide rate, in major cities across
> the US.
> [] nobody has a lot of grip on why it happened in 2009, if you
> want to throw your theory into the ring go ahead.
> Obama heavy duty brain waves work for me. Also the stock
> market rebound.
Obama brain waves? Share the drugs, lady.
While the stock market is itself largely a criminal enterprise,
and only indirectly violent, no obvious mechanism connects it to
the data.
Perhaps the billions and billions diverted from badly needed
infrastructure and social welfare uses to the benefit of vastly
expanded domestic surveillance and intelligence gathering, law
enforcement facilities and personnel, and other trappings of an
emerging police state, have made violent crime too risky for all
but the very most desperate criminals.
Authorized crime pays better and you rarely get caught, much
less punished. Just consider health "reform"... No need to shoot
anyone, just get elected to the so-called government.
Not the least of the possibilities is that someone who can is
diddling the data for political gain.
--
[] If you can't say anything good about someone, sit right
[] here by me.
[] -- Alice Roosevelt Longworth
--
[] Copyright 2009 Jess Anderson [] www.jessanderson.org
[] Soc.Motss FAQ: www.soc-motss.org/doc/faq/faq_intro.html
Max Vasilatos
> Max Vasilatos:
> > [] in 2009 there was a remarkable [] drop in the violent crime
> > rate, particularly the homicide rate, in major cities across
> > the US.
>
> > [] nobody has a lot of grip on why it happened in 2009, if you
> > want to throw your theory into the ring go ahead.
>
> > Obama heavy duty brain waves work for me. Also the stock
> > market rebound.
>
> Obama brain waves? Share the drugs, lady.
Don't call me lady. And I was pretty much kidding.
> While the stock market is itself largely a criminal enterprise,
> and only indirectly violent, no obvious mechanism connects it to
> the data.
>
> Perhaps the billions and billions diverted from badly needed
> infrastructure and social welfare uses to the benefit of vastly
> expanded domestic surveillance and intelligence gathering, law
> enforcement facilities and personnel, and other trappings of an
> emerging police state, have made violent crime too risky for all
> but the very most desperate criminals.
This amounts to conspiracy theory. And paranoia. And illogic.We don't have
these kind of resources. Our police don't have this sort of ways to work.
Maybe some of the dumb ones would like to, but they don't have the budget.
I always get into trouble with people who talk like this because I roll my
eyes and audibly sigh, and I'm now on orders to knock that off.
JTEM
"Max Vasilatos" <vasila...@gmail.com> wrote:
> This amounts to conspiracy theory.
Any LESS of a conspiracy theory than the 2000 election
required, or the lead up to the Iraq war?
9/11 was the result of a conspiracy, as was Watergate.
The assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand, and
hence World War One, was the result of a conspiracy.
Conspiracies are not rare.
The fact is that you identified anomalous data,
and "Somebody fudged it" is the easiest way to
explain such a thing.
Arne Adolfsen
> "Jess Anderson" <ande...@wisc.edu> wrote
> > Perhaps the billions and billions diverted from badly needed
> > infrastructure and social welfare uses to the benefit of vastly
> > expanded domestic surveillance and intelligence gathering, law
> > enforcement facilities and personnel, and other trappings of an
> > emerging police state, have made violent crime too risky for all
> > but the very most desperate criminals.
Yeesh! Do you really believe that? Let me tell you
about "vastly expanded domestic surveillance"
nowadays. The parents of a friend of mine,
immigrants from another country, bought a house in
suburban LA. Moving in, they discovered that they
had an empty wardrobe trunk they didn't know what to
do with, so the father threw it up onto the roof.
There followed night after night after night of
circling helicopters shining down spotlights on
their roof, until one day FBI agents knocked at the
door and burst in wanting to know exactly which
country they were spying for. This was in around
1966, they were emigrants from Israel (she was a
sabra, he a survivor of the Holocaust from Germany
who spent his teenaged years running from here to
there across eastern Europe and into East Siberia
and then finally smuggled into British Mandate
Palestine through, as I recall, Turkey), and they
had no idea what was going on and why they were
being accused of things that no one would explain to
them.
The government at every level has ALWAYS had lots of
money to spend on domestic surveillance, no matter
what money they divert to their other pet projects,
and no matter what other public projects desperately
need to be funded instead.
> This amounts to conspiracy theory. And paranoia. And illogic.We don't have
> these kind of resources. Our police don't have this sort of ways to work.
Yes and no.
> Maybe some of the dumb ones would like to, but they don't have the budget.
> I always get into trouble with people who talk like this because I roll my
> eyes and audibly sigh, and I'm now on orders to knock that off.
I've always assumed I'm being spied on, even when
I'm wanking off in my bathtub day-dreaming about
David Kaye and Dennis Lewis doin' it, so nothing
nowadays really surprises me. (And Max, you really
should see some of the spy cameras that the MTA has
set up in LA's subway and light rail stations. You
pick your nose and fling the booger somewhere and
you'll be confronted by uniformed officers.)
Arne
Frank McQuarry
We've sent all current and future psycho killers to Iraq and Afghanistan
for training?
Robert S. Coren
Jess Anderson <ande...@wisc.edu> wrote:
>The UW-Madison dormitory is named Ogg Hall.
Or, as it might be called in some parts of London, Hogg 'All.
--
---Robert Coren (co...@panix.com)------------------------------------
"I read _The Tao of Pooh_, and I couldn't decide whether it was
Taoism or _Winnie-the-Pooh_ that merited further investigation."
--Jeffrey William McKeough
Max Vasilatos
> Max Vasilatos wrote:
>> "Jess Anderson" <ande...@wisc.edu> wrote
>> > Perhaps the billions and billions diverted from badly needed
>> > infrastructure and social welfare uses to the benefit of vastly
>> > expanded domestic surveillance and intelligence gathering, law
>> > enforcement facilities and personnel, and other trappings of an
>> > emerging police state, have made violent crime too risky for all
>> > but the very most desperate criminals.
Doesn't explain the precipitous drop in 2009.
> (And Max, you really
> should see some of the spy cameras that the MTA has
> set up in LA's subway and light rail stations. You
> pick your nose and fling the booger somewhere and
> you'll be confronted by uniformed officers.)
A friend of mine does CCTV footage analysis for the crime lab in San Mateo
county; he says the quality is terrible but getting way better all the time,
especially with non-publicly funded cameras, which is where you see most of
the stuff they get on the news. We did a whole section on CCTV at BU, pro
and con, in the police section. I finally ended up con, but that's not
going to stop it. At this point it's simply a matter of mobs with phones in
their hands more than municipally financed fisheyes.
You guys may be onto something as to a variable behind the reduced crime
rate, I don't know.
Kathryn
Young men of color suddenly feel like they are part of this country
and might actually be able to make a reasonable life for themselves?
It'll be interesting to see what further research reveals
Rebecca Ore
<5f31156f-296e-400e...@22g2000yqr.googlegroups.com>,
Kathryn <pi...@pacifier.com> wrote:
The kids who weren't born to women who really would prefer to have
abortions, thanks, didn't commit the crimes -- probably just part of it
but the research seems to point to this as a factor.
Max Vasilatos
>> > I would like to point out that in 2009 there was a remarkable, and I
>> > mean
>> > remarkable, drop in the violent crime rate, particularly the homicide
>> > rate,
>> > in major cities across the US. I've been following this for the last
>> > four
>> > years, I have a degree in criminal justice and forensic psych, and
>> > nobody
>> > has a lot
>> > of grip on why it happened in 2009, if you want to throw your theory
>> > into
>> > the ring go ahead.
>> >
>> > Obama heavy duty brain waves work for me. Also the stock market
>> > rebound.
>> Young men of color suddenly feel like they are part of this country
>> and might actually be able to make a reasonable life for themselves?
>> It'll be interesting to see what further research reveals
> The kids who weren't born to women who really would prefer to have
> abortions, thanks, didn't commit the crimes -- probably just part of it
> but the research seems to point to this as a factor.
I'd seen that and yes. But those first kids who weren't born would have
been not-16 in 1989, not 2009, and this huge dip isn't a trend, it's a
downward spike. Especially remarkable because the unemployment rate for
young black males (the group for whom the violent crime rate is highest) is
over 40%. Somebody speculated that everyone is just too tired.
The police are taking credit, but despite what Jess says, their budgets and
staff have been cut across the board, not enhanced, not by a long shot.
Some techniques have changed to community policing but not enough to explain
this, and there are no drastic legislative or prison policy changes that I
can point to either. Shrug.
JTEM
"Max Vasilatos" <vasila...@gmail.com> wrote:
> Especially remarkable because the unemployment
> rate for young black males (the group for whom
> the violent crime rate is highest) is over 40%.
> Somebody speculated that everyone is just too
> tired.
If I am allowed to speculate, I would say that the
issue (at it's heart) is television advertisement.
Put in a more subtle form: The poor & traditionally
more prone to crime are finally catching up to the
rest of the nation when it comes to the internet.
It's been more than ten years since television
viewership amongst your average teenager dropped.
Which means exposure to advertisement dropped.
Two things, and by that I mean three things:
#1.
Advertisement creates demand. That's what it's for.
#2.
The efforts necessary to pierce the defenses of a
worldly, well-educated, totally jaded adult are
orders of magnitude beyond what is necessary to break
through the defenses of some dumb kid.
#3.
The poorer you are, traditionally, the more you
depended on "Free" entertainment -- like television --
as opposed to movies, magazines, plays... things you
have to buy.
The result of all of this was always that the greatest
demand for material goods was created within those who
were least likely to have the money to buy them. And, if
that ain't a formula for crime then I don't know what is.
Of course, internet advertisement just isn't the same. If
it were, traditional news sources -- like News Week --
would be rolling in dough. Instead, we have nearly every
major news delivery company spiraling towards bankruptcy,
as they cut news collection resources in response to
dropping revenues... leading to further drops as more and
more people reject the garbage they produce.
It's a whole new ball game.