Received: by 10.66.87.234 with SMTP id bb10mr389591pab.36.1349979991967; Thu, 11 Oct 2012 11:26:31 -0700 (PDT) MIME-Version: 1.0 Path: s9ni1868pbb.0!nntp.google.com!border1.nntp.dca.giganews.com!nntp.giganews.com!news.bbs-scene.org!eternal-september.org!feeder.eternal-september.org!mx04.eternal-september.org!.POSTED!not-for-mail From: Rich Rostrom Newsgroups: soc.history.what-if Subject: Re: Anti-Hitler plots succeed- a focus on the Axis allies Date: Thu, 11 Oct 2012 13:26:27 -0500 Organization: A noiseless patient Spider Lines: 103 Message-ID: References: <5072a9ca$0$13274$4fafbaef@reader2.news.tin.it> <9dc5f841-c381-4d58-bbc2-516395444d85@m5g2000yql.googlegroups.com> Injection-Info: mx04.eternal-september.org; posting-host="9be9249e0349fef79b69e709d4260676"; logging-data="20994"; mail-complaints-to="ab...@eternal-september.org"; posting-account="U2FsdGVkX1+KsJQPMiHDe1tI+7cCY1cYlTpHh+LBzxc=" User-Agent: MT-NewsWatcher/3.5.2 (PPC Mac OS X) Cancel-Lock: sha1:IOy52ob8+1tw+IC3KEjtjLZM5Qg= Bytes: 5152 Alex Milman wrote: > On Oct 8, 6:39pm, Rich Rostrom wrote: > > Probably not. The whole point of the coup was to get > > rid of the obstructionist Hitler regime and get > > Germany out of the war. > > Questionable: > > If a resulting government are the successful conspirators then most > probably their idea would be to have a better-organized military > effort with, perhaps, an attempt to have a negotiated peace on the > West. Better organized military effort, yes, but none of them, AFAIK, believed that getting rid of Hitler would improve Germany's military position _that_ much. The more important concern was to remove the criminal regime which the Allies had pledged to destroy. They believed (or hoped) that the Nazi regime was the great obstacle to making peace. > Again, the Allies (even just Western Allies) are not sympathetic > because nobody at this point wants strong Germany or even defeated but > not crushed one. No question about that. > > The neo-Germans have weak > > grounds for opposing any other country's attempts > > to do likewise. > > IIRC, even Stauffenberg & Co. were not for German capitulation. > Letting allies to change sides would undermine German chances for a > negotiated peace so something would have to be done about such > attempts (not that in OTL Nazies could do too much except in Hungary > and Italy). Trying to force Germany's allies to stay on side is a) overreaching for German forces at this time, when the Germans are near collapse on three major fronts. b) in most cases, at best delaying the imminent inevitable. c) acting like the Nazis, which would only reinforce Allied suspicions. d) allying locally with fascist elements, which again would reinforce Allied suspicions. (E.g. putting the "Arrow-Cross" in charge in Hungary, or propping up Mussolini's RSI.) > > As for Warsaw: _if_ they are clever, they will see > > that letting the Home Army take control will drive > > a wedge between the US/UK and the USSR. > > (a) Evacuating Poland and especially Warsaw without fighting would > make situation on the Eastern Front much more unfavorable (and would > almost totally isolate German troops in Eastern Prussia). The situation on the Eastern front is calamitous anyway. I don't see how Warsaw controls communication to East Prussia, which is by sea and via Danzig. > (b) The Home Army was at this point (formally) Soviet ally and > (presumably) fighting the Germans. "The enemy of my enemy". > (c) Taking into an account a complete disbalance of force between the > Home Army and the Soviet forces, the Home Army (even with Mikolajczyk > being transported to Warsaw and declaring ) would exist only > as long as it suits Stalin. Polish communists would get share in the > government, Soviet troops would control most of the territory and, as > FDR remarked in OTL, nobody would break relations with Stalin over > "Polish Issue". 1) Germans cannot be sure of that. 2) If Stalin moves to suppress the Home Army, then they are fighting the Soviets and not the Germans. Net win for the Germans. 3) Obvious PR value for Germany. > > Also, to be sure, I think they would be much less inclined > > than Hitler and his henchmen to crush and punish > > rebellion at all costs. > > They would by the purely military reasons: Warsaw was a key element in > the defense of this sector of the Eastern Front. Not that important. The Soviets had other bridgeheads over the Vistula, and the Soviet forces in that sector were out of supply after the great advances of the previous month, so not going anywhere for a while. -- The real Velvet Revolution - and the would-be hijacker. http://originalvelvetrevolution.com