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From: SolomonW <Solom...@citi.com>
Subject: Re: Summer 1914 Would the nice guy finish last? Part 3 - Germany
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Date: Wed, 14 Nov 2012 23:11:28 +1100
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On Tue, 13 Nov 2012 10:14:32 -0800 (PST), Rob wrote:

> What if the German military/cabinet/crown decided that the situation in 1914 was not favorable for a war given the poor state of its alliances resources compared with the Triple Entente? 
> 
> Therefore, it opts to calibrate Austria-Hungary's response to the Sarajevo events to the point that some punishment/humiliation can be inflicted on Serbia, but only to the point that Serbia and the Entente can accept without getting their backs up. 
> 
> IE, Germany can support some Austro-Hungarian demands, but never issues a "blank check" to Vienna.
> 
> What are the near and medium term most probable consequences -
> 
> If Germany gave Austria limited support in July 1914 crisis
> A) Stops Entente-Central war in 1914
> B) Does not stop 1914 war & leaves Central military prospects worse
> C) Does not stop 1914 war & leaves Central military prospects same
> D) Germany fights Entente by 1925, with worse prospects
> E) Germany fights Entente by 1925, with better prospects
> F) Germany avoids war & loss of relative stature well past 1925
> G) Eventually fights Entente & all or part of A-H are on Entente side?



A-H may find herself in a war with Russia, that without Germany she would 
lose. I think A-H might be tempted to accept Serbia terms.