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From: Rich Rostrom <rrostrom.21stcent...@rcn.com>
Newsgroups: soc.history.what-if
Subject: Re: Anti-Hitler plots succeed- a focus on the Axis allies
Date: Mon, 08 Oct 2012 00:08:28 -0500
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Rob <raharris1...@my-deja.com> wrote:

> Yep there's always alot of talk about the July plot, but here's one
> thing I was wondering.  If either the July 1944 briefcase bomb or the
> March 1943 cognac bottle bomb had killed Hitler, what were the chances
> of all Germany's alliances in Europe unravelling in a month or two?

Operation FLASH is not going to break up Germany's 
alliances immediately. As of March 1943, Germany is 
still militarily dominant everywhere in continental 
Europe. Even in the east, the Soviets have only 
inflicted a modest pushback of German advances. In 
hindsight we know that the Germans had lost any chance 
of winning in the east, but that wasn't at all clear 
at the time. The eastern front has stabilized for the
winter.

So Finland, Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria, and Italy
are not going to change sides then.

20 July is another matter.

By that time, Germany is clearly back on its heels.
Soviet forces have cleared Ukraine and are sweeping
toward Warsaw. Italy has been defeated, and the U.S.
and UK are now driving north toward the Alps. The
U.S. and UK are ashore in France in great strength
and pushing the Germans back (though COBRA hasn't
started yet, and the outcome is not obvious).

The Soviets have already driven the Finns back from 
Leningrad, and the Finns are maneuvering to make 
peace. (On 4 August OTL, President Ryti, who had 
promised not to make a separate peace, was replaced by 
Mannerheim, who hadn't.) On 2 September, Finland
accepted Soviet conditions, which included driving
the remaining German forces out.

As to Romania - Soviet forces were already poised on
its border. They attacked on 20 August, and Romania
surrendered and changed sides on 23 August. Bulgaria
surrendered when Soviet forces reached the Danube a
few days later.

I don't exactly know what happened in Hungary.
AIUI, Hungary also tried to surrender/change sides
at this time, and was prevented by the presence of
German troops.

A bit further north, most of the army of the Axis 
satellite state of Slovakia declared for the Allies 
and attacked the Germans. This move failed, as the 
Germans held the Soviets east of the Carpathians for 
two months while they crushed the Slovaks.

So OTL, most of Germany's alliances broke in the
six weeks after 20 July, even though Hitler lived.

If Hitler dies... the rush for the exits will be
even faster. The assassination and coup is an
all but explicit admission that Germany can't
win and is going to try to make peace ASAP. The
Axis ship is sinking, so everyone will try to
get off.

And the neo-German regime would I think be rather 
ruthless about abandoning Hitler's alliances on their 
end. By this time, none of Germany's allies are actual 
military assets, compared to the costs of supporting 
them.

They won't lift a finger for Mussolini's rump state in 
Italy, nor for Finland or the Balkans (which are 
indefensible).

And it will be pretty obvious they won't, even if they 
don't say so explicitly.


> Could this create enough of reinforcing spiral of bad news so that the
> war ends in the following 3-6 months, in either case?

Nothing significant would happen in 1943 (in this
area); in 1944, the alliances would fall a bit
faster than OTL, but since OTL that didn't end
the war, it wouldn't do so ATL either.
-- 
The real Velvet Revolution - and the would-be hijacker.

http://originalvelvetrevolution.com