this is a most Secret Meeting between 2 Heads
of Very large Spy agencies in the world
On Jun 10, 1:04 pm, rst9 <
rst9w...@yahoo.com> wrote:
> China Gives US Nothing, but Germans Get Sweets
> I can see from the very beginning this meeting will not end well.
> 1: Not one major U.S. News Service covers his arrival in the U.S.
> 2: No American government official to greet him upon his arrival.
> 3: Not even a major California state official was there to welcome
> him.
> 4: The American official to welcome him was the city mayor.
>
> I think the future relations with China will be very very rough(bad).
>
>
http://www.cnbc.com/id/100801692?__source=yahoo%7Cfinance%7Cheadline%...
> Published: Monday, 10 Jun 2013 | 12:28 AM ET
> By: Michael Ivanovitch | President, MSI Global
>
> Some of the 9 hours of "unscripted" talks between the U.S. President
> Barack Obama and the Chinese President Xi Jinping in a balmy
> California desert over the weekend could have been used to give
> American companies a better opportunity to compete in the Middle
> Kingdom's booming economy.
>
> Selling more American goods and services in expanding markets of
> nearly half a billion middle-class consumers could be a win-win
> proposition for both countries: it would serve China's goal of
> economic modernization while boosting America's growth through smaller
> trade deficits.
>
> But not much was heard about trade. That is in sharp contrast with the
> Chinese Prime Minister Li Keqiang's recent visit to Germany, where
> trade was hailed as part of the Sino-German "Dream Team." And dream it
> is. Last year, the German trade shortfall with China came in at less
> than 5 percent of the whopping $315 billion U.S. trade deficit with
> Beijing. U.S. and German exports to China were roughly comparable in
> 2012, but U.S. imports from China were 4.4 times bigger than what
> Germany bought in China.
>
> This year the U.S. trade deficit with China will probably be even
> worse. China's moderating economic growth will slow down its import
> demand, but the continuing recovery of the U.S. economy will provide
> expanding markets for Chinese exports.
>
> US Gets the Heartburn, Allies Get the Sweets
>
> In spite of that, there are no reports that the U.S. was seriously
> talking trade with China during what White House called a "unique"
> summit meeting. We just got all those extremely contentious issues
> like North Korean nukes, Iranian suspected nukes, intractable
> conflicts in Central Asia and territorial spats in the Sea of Japan
> and the East and South China Seas.
>
> All the topics that (a) exacerbate our adversarial tensions with
> China, (b) lead to extremely dangerous intrusions into each other's
> cyber space and (c) prompt our security strategists to move nearly two-
> thirds of our naval assets into China's neighborhood.
>
> (Read More: This China Downturn May Be the 'Most Drawn-Out')
>
> And then we want to build trust with China. Don't bother, say the
> Chinese. In a tense debate between the top American and Chinese
> military officials during the conference organized by the
> International Institute for Strategic Studies in Singapore May 31-June
> 2, 2013 (the "Shangri-La Dialogue"), the Chinese Major General Yao
> Yunzhu (she is also director of the Center for China-America Defense
> Relations at the People's Liberation Army) firmly declared that the
> U.S. policy of "rebalancing" (or "pivoting") to Asia was intended to
> contain China.
>
> No wonder the Chinese want a "dream team" with Germany. During his
> visit to Berlin two weeks ago, Prime Minister Li urged closer
> cooperation in manufacturing and said that China would give Germany
> preferential treatment for investments in logistics, education and
> healthcare. That is in addition to the huge local production of German
> cars and top-of-the-line machinery imports, in exchange for Chinese
> exports of textiles, electrical goods and toys.
>
> Interestingly, before visiting Germany, Mr Li stopped off in
> Switzerland to sign the framework of a free-trade agreement, the first
> with a west European economy. China is looking for Swiss
> pharmaceutical products, watches, precision machinery and food
> processing technology. Mr. Li also said that China envisages to make
> Switzerland its preferred financial center for offshore yuan trading –
> a piece of business fiercely contested by London and Paris, and a dig
> at the U.S. at a time when Washington is dismantling Switzerland's
> centuries old bank secrecy laws and practices.
>
> (Read More: China Data Highlights Weak Economy, Remedies in Focus)
>
> China Doesn't Do "Unscripted" Business
>
> This, too, is "unscripted," as our strategic analysts would say?
>
> Nothing is "unscripted" in Chinese global political and economic
> strategy. Those who think that the Chinese president came for
> "unscripted" talks with his chief geopolitical adversary should think
> again. As the Singapore "Shangri-La Dialogue" showed, Beijing has
> clear strategic markers about Sino-American relations. And all these
> "red lines" come from the Politburo - China's highest policy making
> forum.
>
> Here is another detail for those who need to understand the long arm
> of China's party bosses. The Politburo held a special session on the
> economy in mid-April, instructing the government that "China needs to
> cement its economic growth momentum and guard against potential risks
> in financial sectors," adding that "macro-economic policies should be
> stabilized while loosening micro controls in some sectors."
>
> These are clear marching orders – and performance evaluation criteria
> - for both the current economic management and economic reforms
> presently under way and those to come.
>
> (Read More: Stop Fixating on Data, China Doing Fine, Says Roach)
>
> Clearly, strategic considerations and development programs are at the
> heart of China's quest for a "dream team" with Germany and a preferred
> offshore financial center in Switzerland. Apart from the fact that
> Germany is eager to sell the technology China needs, and that
> Switzerland has the expertise and the financial infrastructure to help
> China's gradual introduction of the yuan as a global currency, neither
> country is Beijing's strategic adversary.
>
> And here is what that means. When Mr Xi talks about new world power
> relationships, he clearly has in mind China's key (i.e., dominant)
> position in Asia. But that is the position the U.S. holds and is
> unwilling to relinquish. In fact, the whole "rebalancing" to Asia is
> part of Washington's intention to remain a dominant Asia-Pacific
> power. China is unlikely to mount a military challenge to the U.S. for
> the time being, but Mr Xi's frequent visits to various army units are
> assorted with impatient and widely reported exhortations to "get ready
> to fight and to win wars," with particular emphasis on the need "to
> win regional warfare under conditions shaped by information
> technologies."
>
> That is a clear collision course. President Obama wants to manage that
> course by attempting to put an end to cyber intrusions, and by
> dissolving the Korean crisis through an uncertain cooperative effort
> to get rid of North Korean nuclear arms.
>
> (Read More: Hard Issues On Table at Obama, Xi 'Informal' Summit)
>
> But that is crisis management rather than a mutually acceptable and
> sustainable Sino-American modus vivendi. "Unscripted" summits and
> multi-level bilateral talking shops may be useful only if – and that
> may be a big if -- they are underpinned by a deeper, broader and more
> balanced economic engagement of the world's two largest economies.
>
> A good place to start testing this proposition would be a fully
> scripted agreement at the highest level to swiftly rebalance the U.S.
> trade relationship with China, and to ensure a more open access for
> American companies to Chinese markets.
>
> It is unfortunate that these two problems were glossed over in
> California.
>
> Michael Ivanovitch is president of MSI Global, a New York-based
> economic research company. He also served as a senior economist at the
> OECD in Paris, international economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of
> New York and taught economics at Columbia.