Gwynne Dyer: What happens in Thailand after the death of King Bhumibol
Adulyadej?
By Gwynne Dyer
People get long jail sentences in Thailand for criticising the royal
family, so the Thai media have been silent on the question of what
happens after the death of King Bhumibol Adulyadej. But the king is 81
years old and he has been in hospital for a month now, so there are
widespread fears that he is dying. Last week the Bangkok stock market
fell by eight percent in a day on rumours that his health is worse
than the Palace admits.
Bhumibol has been on the throne for 63 years and he is universally
revered. Thailand is three years into the worst political crisis it
has seen since it became a more or less democratic country two decades
ago, and the king is just about the only unifying and stabilising
factor that remains. His death would make matters much worse.
The crisis is the result of democracy. Thailand has become a semi-
developed country—average income has risen forty-fold since Bhumibol
came to the throne—but most of the population is still rural and quite
poor. Their votes used to be bought by powerful local politicians and
delivered to whichever urban-based party paid the highest price, but
no more.
As the people of the overwhelmingly rural north and northeast acquired
more education and sophistication, they started using their votes to
back politicians who promised to defend their interests and not just
those of the Bangkok-based economic elite. In 2001, they elected a
populist politician of humble origins called Thaksin Shinawatra as
prime minister.
Thaksin had made a fortune in telecommunications, and he probably
couldn’t have won the elections if he wasn’t rich. But he did govern
in the interests of the poor, and he was re-elected with an increased
majority in 2005. It was how you would expect a maturing democracy to
work, for the poor always outnumber the rich.
But you would also expect a backlash from the traditional ruling elite—
which came in the form of the People’s Alliance of Democracy (PAD), a
yellow-shirted movement that actually aimed to roll back democracy. By
provoking confrontations in the streets with Thaksin’s supporters (who
took to wearing red shirts), the PAD created a pretext for its allies
in the army to seize power in a military coup in 2006. Since then,
Thailand has been in permanent crisis.
Thaksin was convicted of corruption in questionable circumstances and
now lives in exile. His political party, Thai Rak Thai, was forced to
disband after being found guilty of “electoral fraud” by the
Constitutional Court, whose impartiality in this case is open to
question. However, Thaksin’s supporters remain devoted to him, and
when the army allowed Thais to vote again at the end of 2007, a new
party that was essentially a continuation of Thai Rak Thai won the
election.
The voters had got it wrong again, so the crisis continued. Two
successive prime ministers who were standing in for the exiled Thaksin
were forced to resign by PAD demonstrations and occupations that
included a blockade of both of Bangkok’s airports. The new pro-Thaksin
party was also forced to shut down by the Constitutional Court, and
late last year a new government was installed that was more to the
taste of the yellow-shirts.
The PAD’s urban, middle-class supporters can control the streets of
the capital (with some help from the army) and even overthrow
governments they don’t like, but they cannot force the rural majority
to abandon its own loyalties. The country is dangerously polarised and
politically paralysed—and many Thais believe that only King Bhumibol
can hold the country together.
Maybe it’s true, although there are suspicions that he actively
supported the 2006 coup rather than just acquiescing in it. (Again,
that cannot be openly discussed in Thailand. A well-known former
journalist, Daranee Charnchoengsilpakul, was recently sentenced to 18
years in prison after she suggested in a public speech that the king
had backed the coup.) At any rate, the king’s death would greatly
deepen the crisis, for his likely successor is not loved.
Crown Prince Maha Vajiralongkorn has led a turbulent personal life,
including three marriages. His attitude has probably not been improved
by living for 57 years in the shadow of his father. He would be a
perfectly serviceable constitutional monarch in normal times, but the
Thai people have decided, fairly or unfairly, that they do not like
him very much.
Vajiralongkorn is so lacking in the respect that has enabled his
father to play a mediating, calming role that there are those who
quietly suggest that his sister, Princess Maha Chakri Sirindhorn,
might perform the duties of the monarchy better. It’s not impossible.
Thai law has been changed to allow women to occupy the throne, and the
constitution leaves the final right to designate an heir to the 19-
member Privy Council of senior advisors to the king.
They are unlikely to change the succession, but the mere fact that it
could happen introduces another element of uncertainty and potential
conflict into the equation. Which gives Thais another reason to pray
for Bhumibol’s recovery.
The almost daily reports from the palace on the king’s condition are
always upbeat, but there have been references to a “lung
inflammation,” which is a delicate way of saying pneumonia. That is
potentially a killer in a man of his age, and the worries of the Thai
public are justified. Long live the King!
Gwynne Dyer’s latest book, Climate Wars, was published recently in
Canada by Random House and Vintage.
Recommend 5 readers have recommended this
5
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Mr. Hun Sen in Cambodia is building a new house
to hoste Premier Thaksin in Cambodia in order to help
Chinese Thaksin 's political bounce - back to Thailand .
On Oct 22, 11:10 am, "Jesus Christ , St. Mary 's cunt ' s faithful
Chinese should not be involved
in politics and corruptions in Thailand .
Chinese are a corrupted people because
Chinese are foreigners in ASEAN .
Chinese always pay to get ASEAN ID cards .
Chinese are faking
as Thai,
as Malaysians ,
as Burmese ,
as Lao,
as Cambodians,
as Vietnamese ,
as Indonesians ,
as Filipino .
Ti is prince VeryLongKok 's right to
become the next King of Thailand
irrespective of how he looks or how he fucks.
VerylongKok is an REAL THAI Prince VerylongKok ,
just like Norodom Sihanouk is a REAL Khmer prince .
nobody can take away his rights to the Throne .
.
On Nov 7, 9:45 pm, Abdul Rahman Dohlon <hinduvis...@gmail.com>
wrote:
> > > Share- Hide quoted text -
>
> - Show quoted text -
n Nov 10, 3:08 am, la Comtesse Erzsebet de Bathory
but they are still Chinese in Indonesia .
n Nov 10, 6:35 pm, "Chairman Mao , expert fucker of Chinese High
Chinese Thaksin is just waiting in Cambodia ,.
On Nov 11, 9:40 am, "Chairman Mao , expert fucker of Chinese High
School Girl 's cunts in China" <monsteroooodk...@gmail.com> wrote:
You're wakalukong? BALLS, you're Komin the Thief. The King passes
what? Just open your mouth.
[King's shit]
Good? Hahahaha!
Wakalukong
look at Thaksin of Chinese Hakka People.
Chinese thaksin wants to re- write the Thai Constittutional
laws
which regulate the Thai Royal Family .
Chinese Thaksin wants to use New Thai Laws to control the
Thai Royal Family .
just like what the Chinese in Malaysia want to do too .
Chinese in ASEAN want to use Democratic idea and laws to
control
the natives of ASEAN
On Nov 13, 11:15 am, the Black Fucking Learngar Cock of the Holy
Boudha <mahatmanga...@gmail.com> wrote:
THIEF
On Nov 13, 6:41 pm, la Comtesse Erzsebet de Bathory
<voivodv...@gmail.com> wrote:
> Chinese in ASEAN want to use democracy to take over ASEAN /.
THIEF
On Nov 10, 6:08 am, la Comtesse Erzsebet de Bathory
> > > - Show quoted text -- Hide quoted text -
by exposing his ex-wife 's nake body on the internet .
Thus you can never turn your back on the Thai Royal
family .
I have not seen such video of the ex-wife of the Crown
Prince of Thailand ,.
is she Chinese or Thai ?
> ...
>
> read more »- Hide quoted text -
> ...
>
> read more »
Something is eating away his Royal Thai blood .
n Nov 17, 9:32 am, charlie vietcong <vietcong.charlie...@gmail.com>
wrote:
> > > > > > him King instead of his uncle,PrinceSirimatak, an heir of the
> > > > > > throne. Because the French believed
> > > > > > they could control a teenagerPrinceSihanouk. I tell you there aren't
> > > > > > many teenagers can behave like
> > > > > > Buddha, I didn't. Did you?
>
> > > > > > On Nov 7, 9:45 pm, Abdul Rahman Dohlon <hinduvis...@gmail.com>
> > > > > > wrote:
>
> > > > > > >prince VerylongKok is a Royal descendant of Old Thai King
> > > > > > > Bumobol,
> > > > > > > and
> > > > > > > Thus prince VerylongKok has the legal right to inherit
> > > > > > > the Thai Throne irrespective
> > > > > > > of what stupid Porno Addict thisprince VerylongKokis .
> ...
>
> read more »
n Nov 25, 10:17 am, charlie vietcong <vietcong.charlie...@gmail.com>
> ...
>
> read more »
On Nov 24, 10:13 pm, charlie vietcong <vietcong.charlie...@gmail.com>
wrote:
On Nov 27, 9:31 pm, Abdul Rahman Dohlon <hinduvis...@gmail.com>
Chakri family was all murderers .
> ...
>
> read more »
On Nov 28, 7:33 pm, "Aleks Bornikov , FSB Moskow"
.Taksin was afraid all the time that
the REAL Thai would murder Chinese King Taksin
> ...
>
> read more »
n Nov 28, 6:27 pm, Abdul Rahman Dohlon <hinduvis...@gmail.com>
wrote:
> Chakri was vice-governor of Angkor Watt , under
> Thai borned Chinese Taksin.
>
> .Taksin was afraid all the time that
> the REAL Thai would murder Chinese King Taksin
>
> n Nov 28, 3:40 pm, Destin Lee <lee.desti...@gmail.com> wrote:
>
>
>
> > His blood has aid. From a commoner family to become royal family, he
> > will become
> > a commonerafterhis FatherKingPumipondies. Remember Chakri dynasty
> > > > > > > > > That idiot already gave up his rankafterhe sent billion of video for
> > > > > > > > > billion people around the wolrd to see his naked wife with a puppy.
> > > > > > > > > Welcome the Thai naked Queen to be, and theKingof aid.
>
> > > > > > > > > On Nov 10, 6:08 am, la Comtesse Erzsebet de Bathory
>
> > > > > > > > > <voivodv...@gmail.com> wrote:
> > > > > > > > > > Old Thai King' s daughter cannot inherit
> > > > > > > > > > the Thai throne without the Thai Crown prince first
> > > > > > > > > > giving up his own claim to the Thai Throne .
>
> > > > > > > > > > On Nov 9, 9:54 pm, Destin Lee <lee.desti...@gmail.com> wrote:
>
> > > > > > > > > > > So you said his sister who has all qualifications cannot be a new
> > > > > > > > > > > Monarch?
> > > > > > > > > > > If what you think is rightKingPumipon didn't elevate his daughter
> > > > > > > > > > > Princess
> > > > > > > > > > > Sirindhorn to be Crown Princess. It said in Thai new Constitution.
> > > > > > > > > > > Your belief is ousdated, not in this 21th century while the world
> > > > > > > > > > > communicate
> > > > > > > > > > > with each others through internet. Let's face it, his pool party
> > > > > > > > > > > forcing his wife
> > > > > > > > > > > to be naked is being seen across the universe. His right? How about
> > > > > > > > > > > his siblings' rights?
> > > > > > > > > > > Don't you think they too have the rights to inherit the throne? People
> > > > > > > > > > > create law, now
> > > > > > > > > > > the new law said Thailand has a Crown Princess.
> > > > > > > > > > > Why compare Sia O to yourKingSihanouk? What doesKingSihanouk have
> > > > > > > > > > > to do with Sia O?
> > > > > > > > > > > About yourKingSihanouk, I just searched through google, it was the
> > > > > > > > > > > French who made
> > > > > > > > > > > himKinginstead of his uncle,PrinceSirimatak, an heir of the
> > > > > > > > > > > throne. Because the French believed
> > > > > > > > > > > they could control a teenagerPrinceSihanouk. I tell you there aren't
> > > > > > > > > > > many teenagers can behave like
> > > > > > > > > > > Buddha, I didn't. Did you?
>
> > > > > > > > > > > On Nov 7, 9:45 pm, Abdul Rahman Dohlon <hinduvis...@gmail.com>
> > > > > > > > > > > wrote:
>
> > > > > > > > > > > >prince VerylongKok is a Royal descendant of Old ThaiKing
> > > > > > > > > > > > Bumobol,
> > > > > > > > > > > > and
> > > > > > > > > > > > Thus prince VerylongKok has the legal right to inherit
> > > > > > > > > > > > the Thai Throne irrespective
> > > > > > > > > > > > of what stupid Porno Addict thisprince VerylongKokis .
>
> > > > > > > > > > > > Ti is prince VeryLongKok's right to
> > > > > > > > > > > > become the next Kingof Thailand
> > > > > > > > > > > > irrespective of how he looks or how he fucks.
>
> > > > > > > > > > > >VerylongKok is an REAL THAI PrinceVerylongKok,
> > > > > > > > > > > > just like Norodom Sihanouk is a REAL Khmer prince.
>
> > > > > > > > > > > > nobody can take away his rights to the Throne .
>
> > > > > > > > > > > > Nov 8, 7:30 am, Destin Lee <lee.desti...@gmail.com> wrote:
>
> > > > > > > > > > > > > Anyone from Royal family member is better than Sia O. The guy does not
> > > > > > > > > > > > > fit to sit on the throne;
> > > > > > > > > > > > > and if he gets his azz on the throne, he will bring bad luck to
> > > > > > > > > > > > > Thailand. Princess Sirindhorn has everything Thailand needs.
> > > > > > > > > > > > > Undeniable,KingPumipon and his daughter Princess Sirindhorn can keep
> > > > > > > > > > > > > Thailand in one piece and with peace.
> > > > > > > > > > > > > The Princess is highly educated and very intelligent woman, she knows
> > > > > > > > > > > > > how to rule and reign and to keep peace.
>
> > > > > > > > > > > > > On Oct 21, 5:05 am, none <opl...@yahoo.co.uk> wrote:
>
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > Commentary
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > October 20, 2009
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > Recommendations (5) Recommend Comment E-mail Print
>
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > Gwynne Dyer: What happens in Thailandafterthe death ofKingBhumibol
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > Adulyadej?
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > By Gwynne Dyer
>
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > People get long jail sentences in Thailand for criticising the royal
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > family, so the Thai media have been silent on the question of what
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > happensafterthe death ofKingBhumibol Adulyadej. But thekingis 81
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > years old and he has been in hospital for a month now, so there are
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > widespread fears that he is dying. Last week the Bangkok stock market
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > fell by eight percent in a day on rumours that his health is worse
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > than the Palace admits.
>
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > Bhumibol has been on the throne for 63 years and he is universally
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > revered. Thailand is three years into the worst political crisis it
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > has seen since it became a more or less democratic country two decades
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > ago, and thekingis just about the only unifying and stabilising
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > factor that remains. His death would make matters much worse.
>
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > The crisis is the result of democracy. Thailand has become a semi-
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > developed country—average income has risen forty-fold since Bhumibol
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > came to the throne—but most of the population is still rural and quite
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > poor. Their votes used to be bought by powerful local politicians and
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > delivered to whichever urban-based party paid the highest price, but
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > no more.
>
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > As the people of the overwhelmingly rural north and northeast acquired
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > more education and sophistication, they started using their votes to
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > back politicians who promised to defend their interests and not just
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > those of the Bangkok-based economic elite. In 2001, they elected a
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > populist politician of humble origins called Thaksin Shinawatra as
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > prime minister.
>
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > Thaksin had made a fortune in telecommunications, and he probably
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > couldn’t have won the elections if he wasn’t rich. But he did govern
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > in the interests of the poor, and he was re-elected with an increased
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > majority in 2005. It was how you would expect a maturing democracy to
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > work, for the poor always outnumber the rich.
>
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > But you would also expect a backlash from the traditional ruling elite—
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > which came in the form of the People’s Alliance of Democracy (PAD), a
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > yellow-shirted movement that actually aimed to roll back democracy. By
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > provoking
>
the question , is ,
will Thaksin , our Chinese agent in Thailand ,
take over Thailand after the Old Thai King dies ?
Dec 18 2009, 9:18 am, "Vishnu , om Mangalam Mangalam"
> ...
>
> read more »
Not Chinese but Laos will take over Thailand thats why Thai very very
scare returned the hmong refugee back and plea Lao
the Virginjaya is trembling .
> ...
>
> read more »
I Komin the Pedophile Turd come from Cambodia.
I Komin the Cambodian Blooming Idiot studied in Sherborne School in
Dorset, UK (very Celtic).
I Komin the Cambodia am a sycophant sucking up to the Japanese and the
French colonialists. People like Komin the smelly turd of a dark-
skinned Cambodian were the reason why there was popular support for
the Khmer Rouge, and is the reason why Cambodia remains the shit-hole
of the universe to this day.