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November 24, 2009
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Thailand's Fading Smiles
Luke Hunt | Bio | 18 Nov 2009
World Politics Review
Gripped by simmering cross-border tensions, a dysfunctional democracy
and collective unease over the health of the monarchy, Thailand has
seen its status as a major power in Southeast Asia and its influence
in the wider region cast under a harsh light recently.
The most recent political shockwaves to roll through the Bangkok
establishment emanated from ousted Thai leader Thaksin Shinawatra, who
having fled a jail term for corruption, continues to goad his enemies
from exile -- this time by accepting a job offer from the Cambodian
government as an economic adviser.
At a carefully stage-managed press conference last week, with the rest
of the region looking on, Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen refused an
extradition request from Bangkok authorities for Thaksin, offered him
a home and a job, and hailed him as a great friend and economist.
But Hun Sen's stunt was also seen as a personal attack, designed to
embarrass the English-born Thai leader Abhisit Vejjajiva and his
government ahead of a series of major international conferences,
including the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and Asia-
Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summits.
Gavin Greenwood, an analyst with Hong Kong-based Allan & Associates,
said Hun Sen likes to style himself as an old revolutionary fighter
among soft-handed courtiers. "His contempt for Abhisit -- who he
apparently views as a metropolitan, Western acolyte with no business
in the neighborhood -- may have colored his judgment."
Bangkok recalled its ambassador as a result of Thaksin's appointment,
Cambodia responded in kind, and in a tit-for-tat display of sand-pit
diplomacy, hard-won agreements on oil exploration in the Gulf of Siam
were torn up by the Thais, while troops at the disputed temple of
Preah Vihear on the border went on full alert.
Chheang Vannarith, executive director of the Cambodian Institute for
Cooperation and Peace (CICP) sees Abhisit -- who came to power after
anti-Thaksin protesters effectively pushed the People's Power Party
(PPP) from office last year -- as a short-term leader. "I'm still
optimistic about bilateral relations between Cambodia and Thailand,"
he said, adding that "the PPP will win the next election and that
means Thaksin and his supporters will be returned."
The elections are not the only reason that 2010 is shaping up to be a
turbulent year for Thailand. Concern for the health of King Bhumibol
Adulyadjej, who has ruled since 1946, is also paramount. In early
November, looking frail and confined to a wheel chair, the revered
monarch made his first public appearance since being hospitalized with
a lung infection two months ago.
Crown Prince Vajiralongkom remains the heir apparent. His sister,
Princess Sirindhorn, is next in line, while his fifth son, 4-year-old
Prince Dipangkorn Rasmijoti from his third and current wife is also a
contender. Discussing succession, however, is problematic. Any public
comment that can be interpreted as an offense against the dignity of
the monarchy risks charges of lèse Majesté, punishable by a three-
to-15-year jail term.
"The monarchy is in turmoil and the future is uncertain, some people
have even suggested a republic," Chheang of the CICP said. "And
Thailand has a conflict going on with every one of its neighbors."
Analysts said that by appointing Thaksin as his government adviser,
Hun Sen was attempting to acquire leverage in relations with Thailand
-- a risky gambit based on three calculations.
Hun Sen intends to use Thaksin's business acumen to attract foreign
investment to Cambodia, while at the same time sharpening the
political rifts and divisions that exist within the Thai government.
Finally, by shifting the focus of Thai-Cambodian relations from the
territorial dispute at Preah Vihear to political issues, he hopes to
force a rethink in Bangkok on bilateral relations.
However, analysts warned that Hun Sen and Thaksin may have
miscalculated, and that the excessive goading might prove a winner for
Abhisit at the ballot box.
"Hun Sen is moving strongly against his neighbor, which of course has
been a sworn enemy of Cambodia for centuries," said Keith Loveard, a
regional security analyst with Jakarta-based Concord Consulting. But
he added that "the move could be counterproductive . . . possibly
tipping the scales toward the conservatives in Thai politics and away
from Thaksin, simply because of animosity against Cambodia."
Those sentiments were echoed by Greenwood. "If Hun Sen sees Thaksin's
return to power in Thailand as a reason to offer him work and
sanctuary, then I think he is either delusional or extremely badly
informed," he said. "Thaksin has absolutely no chance, in my view, of
recovering his political mantle in Thailand."
Luke Hunt is a Hong Kong-based correspondent and a World Politics
Review contributing editor.
Photo: Monument to King Bhumibol Adulyadej (Rama IX) of Thailand,
Phitsanulok, Thailand (photo by Wikimedia user ChrisO, placed in the
public domain).