...Sci American...Earthquake..."Three Gorges region may be next"
jonathan
75 million people live downstream of the Three Gorges Dam in China.
Dam Safety Analysis
Chapter Ten
"For the Three Gorges design, a 6.5 magnitude earthquake occurring
on a fault 17 kilometres away is used for structural analysis."
http://www.threegorgesprobe.org/pi/documents/three_gorges/damming3g/ch10.html
Quake in China Kills Thousands
7.9-Magnitude Temblor, Centered in Sichuan, Is Country's Worst in Decades
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/05/12/AR2008051200122.html?hpid=topnews
Scientific American article from a couple of months ago.
March 25, 2008
China's Three Gorges Dam: An Environmental Catastrophe?
"Surveys show that the Three Gorges region may be next.
Chinese Academy of Engineering scholar Li Wangping
reports on the CTGPC's Web site that the area registered
822 tremors in the seven months after the September 2006
reservoir-level increase. So far, none have been severe
enough to cause serious damage. But by 2009, the dam's
water level is set to be raised to its full 575-foot capacity
and then lowered about 100 feet (30 meters) during flood
season. That increase in water pressure, in water fluctuation
and in land covered by the reservoir, Fan says, makes
for a "very large possibility" that the situation will worsen"
http://www.sciam.com/article.cfm?id=chinas-three-gorges-dam-disaster
Reservoir-induced Seismicity in China (pdf)
LINYUE CHEN1 and PRADEEP TALWANI1
Abstract-A review of case histories of reservoir-induced seismicity (RIS)
in China shows that it mainly occurs in granitic and karst terranes.
Seismicity in granitic terranes is mainly associated with pore
pressure diffusion whereas in karst terranes the chemical effect of water
appears to play a major role in triggering RIS. In view of the characteristic
features of RIS in China, we can expect moderate earthquakes to be induced
by the construction of the Three Gorges Project on the Yangtze River.
http://scsn.seis.sc.edu/Publications/pageoph98/pageoph98.pdf
A major dam burst at the Three Gorges could be one
of the deadliest natural disasters in recorded history.
s
pg
75 million people = 75 million surfboards.
Wanna help me sell surfboards to those people, anyone ?
On May 13, 5:24 pm, "jonathan" <H...@write.instead.net> wrote:
> 75 million people live downstream of the Three Gorges Dam in China.
>
> Dam Safety Analysis
> Chapter Ten
>
> "For the Three Gorges design, a 6.5 magnitude earthquake occurring
> on a fault 17 kilometres away is used for structural analysis."
> http://www.threegorgesprobe.org/pi/documents/three_gorges/damming3g/c...
>
> Quake in China Kills Thousands
> 7.9-Magnitude Temblor, Centered in Sichuan, Is Country's Worst in Decadeshttp://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/05/12/AR200...
>
> Scientific American article from a couple of months ago.
>
> March 25, 2008
> China's Three Gorges Dam: An Environmental Catastrophe?
>
> "Surveys show that the Three Gorges region may be next.
> Chinese Academy of Engineering scholar Li Wangping
> reports on the CTGPC's Web site that the area registered
> 822 tremors in the seven months after the September 2006
> reservoir-level increase. So far, none have been severe
> enough to cause serious damage. But by 2009, the dam's
> water level is set to be raised to its full 575-foot capacity
> and then lowered about 100 feet (30 meters) during flood
> season. That increase in water pressure, in water fluctuation
> and in land covered by the reservoir, Fan says, makes
> for a "very large possibility" that the situation will worsen"http://www.sciam.com/article.cfm?id=chinas-three-gorges-dam-disaster
>
> Reservoir-induced Seismicity in China (pdf)
> LINYUE CHEN1 and PRADEEP TALWANI1
>
> Abstract-A review of case histories of reservoir-induced seismicity (RIS)
> in China shows that it mainly occurs in granitic and karst terranes.
> Seismicity in granitic terranes is mainly associated with pore
> pressure diffusion whereas in karst terranes the chemical effect of water
> appears to play a major role in triggering RIS. In view of the characteristic
> features of RIS in China, we can expect moderate earthquakes to be induced
> by the construction of the Three Gorges Project on the Yangtze River.http://scsn.seis.sc.edu/Publications/pageoph98/pageoph98.pdf
Skeats
news:86170446-1f28-4766...@u36g2000prf.googlegroups.com...
You might like to see the article today 14th May in The Independent.
The Three Gorges seems to be ok this time but others aren't.
"Thousands of troops are tonight fighting to plug dangerous cracks in a dam
above an earthquake-hit Chinese town.
Zipingpu Reservoir is upstream from Dujiangyan which was near the epicentre
of the 7.9-magnitude quake.
China's top economic planning body said today that the earthquake had
damaged 391 dams. It said two of the dams were large and 28 were
medium-sized.
The official Xinhua news agency said the ministry had set up an emergency
command centre at the dam.
The death toll from the quake may already by more than
50,000".................
Further down
.......................
"Sichuan had other major dam projects, including the massive Three Gorges
dam, the world's largest about 350 miles to the east of the epicentre, but
officials said it escaped undamaged.
He Biao, the director of the Aba Disaster Relief headquarters in northern
Sichuan, said there were also concerns over dams closer to the epicentre.
"Currently, the most dangerous problems are several reservoirs near
Wenchuan," he said.
"There are already serious problems with the Tulong Reservoir on the Min
River. It may collapse. If that happens, it would affect several power
plants below and be extremely dangerous," he said."
Skeats
jonathan
"Skeats" <notme...@blueyonder.co.uk> wrote in message
news:y1GWj.3516$DZ6...@text.news.virginmedia.com...
And on the link below, I didn't point out how much
the Chinese have underestimated the risks at the
Three Gorges. Pretty much at every step they seemed
to have low-balled the problem. When I see that kind
of bias combined with such potential for disaster, it
gives me the willies.
"Examples of the flaws in CYJV's analysis are as follows:"
Underestimation of earthquake ground accelerations
Inadequate analysis of reservoir-induced seismicity
Inadequate analysis of structural stability
Underestimation of the risks caused by catastrophic landslides
Underestimation of risk of spillway failure
Failure to consider downstream effects of cofferdam failure
No provision for decommissioning of the dam
Flawed Bases of CYJV's Sedimentation Analysis
Unreliable Equilibrium Slope Calculation
Miscalculation of Bed Load
Inadequate Empirical Estimate of Reservoir Trap Efficiency
Underestimation of Reservoir Sedimentation Rates
http://www.threegorgesprobe.org/pi/documents/three_gorges/damming3g/ch10.html
>
sir.jp...@neuf.fr
> "Skeats" <notmeeit...@blueyonder.co.uk> wrote in message
>
> > Skeats
>
> And on the link below, I didn't point out how much
> the Chinese have underestimated the risks at the
> Three Gorges. Pretty much at every step they seemed
> to have low-balled the problem. When I see that kind
> of bias combined with such potential for disaster, it
> gives me the willies.
>
> "Examples of the flaws in CYJV's analysis are as follows:"
>
> Underestimation of earthquake ground accelerations
>
> Inadequate analysis of reservoir-induced seismicity
>
> Inadequate analysis of structural stability
>
> Underestimation of the risks caused by catastrophic landslides
>
> Underestimation of risk of spillway failure
>
> Failure to consider downstream effects of cofferdam failure
>
> No provision for decommissioning of the dam
>
> Flawed Bases of CYJV's Sedimentation Analysis
> Unreliable Equilibrium Slope Calculation
>
> Miscalculation of Bed Load
>
> Inadequate Empirical Estimate of Reservoir Trap Efficiency
>
> Underestimation of Reservoir Sedimentation Rates
>
>
>
>
> - Masquer le texte des messages précédents -
>
> - Afficher le texte des messages précédents -- Masquer le texte des messages précédents -
>
> - Afficher le texte des messages précédents -
Thank you for interesting input but this said some of the World dams
are at risk as well since built on well known faults.
Foremost is the Aswan dam in Egpyt on the Nile & built indeed right on
the African Rift fault. A major quake there would send a great part
of Egpytians flowing to the sea
Regarding present needs of China for Hydropower it seems necessary for
that great country to turn its eyes towards the Tsampo river where
indeed at the Tsampo gorges _ as I have stuidied indeed the case _
there is the possibility of construction of 3 dams whose output each
will match 10 times the full capacity of the 3 Gorges Dam ... and this
in all security considering the very stable bed rock .
I hope China will look into such possibility of the Tsampo Gorges
Dams as soon as possible .
Sir Jean-Paul Turcaud
Australia Mining Pioneer
Discoverer of Telfer, Nifty & Kintyre Mines in the Great Sandy Desert
Exploration Geologist & Offshore Consultant
Bus ph + 33 6 50 17 14 64
Founder of the True Geology
~ Ignorance is the Cosmic Sin, the One never Forgiven ~
Hatunen
wrote:
What African Rift Fault? THE Great Rift Valley originates on the
north in the Holy Land, becomes the Red Sea, and goes ashore at
Afar to become the East African Rift, the famous rift valley
where Africa is spreading apart.
I can't find any plate tectonic maps showing a plate boundary at
Aswan.
There is a long term danger to such dams though. It is the
eventual fate of all dams to silt up.
http://www.ilec.or.jp/database/afr/afr-19.html
Almost every hydroelectric generating station will be rendered
useless at some point in the future, with the length of time
being variable. Some dams on the Missouri River and in other
parts of the USA have already been decommissioned and demolished.
The high siltation rates of the Yangtze and Nile rivers does not
bode well.
--
************* DAVE HATUNEN (hat...@cox.net) *************
* Tucson Arizona, out where the cacti grow *
* My typos & mispellings are intentional copyright traps *
Weatherlawyer
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>
> 75 million people = 75 million surfboards.
>
> Wanna help me sell surfboards to those people, anyone ?
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