Ukraine better off than it seems
Mar 23 2006, 15:34
Anyone who wants to understand Ukraine from afar is in big trouble. I
came to a very different country when I revisited Ukraine four months
ago, having visited many times in earlier years.
Politics and society are changing at a lightning pace. Keeping track is
harder than maintaining a scorecard at a basketball game.
After the first ruptures in the Orange camp, the dismissal of Prime
Minister Yulia Tymoshenko and the onset of the age of Orange acrimony,
the conventional wisdom from abroad has been that a great opportunity
to advance reform was squandered. But nothing I had read or been told
in recent months prepared me for what I found. Certainly no reading of
the Western press captures the essence of current events or trends.
>From the outside, the story is simple. Personal ambitions have undone
the Orange camp, slowed reforms and opened the door for the potential
return of the old order. But the reality is just a little bit
different.
Myth One: The Orange camp is irreconcilably divided and incapable of
reconciling.
In point of fact, Our Ukraine, the bloc loyal to President Viktor
Yushchenko, and the Tymoshenko bloc may not be as divided as it seems.
Much of the harsh rhetoric between them is a fight for the hearts and
minds of the Yushchenko electorate. Polls among the most reputable
polling agencies have for months shown pretty much the same thing: two
irreconcilable camps; one pro-Orange, commanding roughly 52 percent
support, the other, scornful of the Orange Revolution and attracting
roughly 44 percent support.
This is a divide identical to the results of the December 2004
presidential elections. Voters simply aren't crossing over. And that
means that the only way the Orange parties can increase their share is
by going after one another. It does not mean that the Orange parties
won't be able to shape a government after March 26. Indeed, off the
record, leading politicians in Tymoshenko's Byut bloc and Our Ukraine
are confident of a modus vivendi, and some say that a formula for power
sharing is already in place.
Myth Two: While the Orange parties are hopelessly divided, the
opposition Regions of Ukraine bloc, led by Viktor Yanukovych, are
unified and cohesive.
In point of fact, there are deep fissures in the Regions bloc. The
Regions are full of politicians who veer toward Russia and want the
restoration of a Donetsk-dominated authoritarian regime. But the party
also has more pragmatic politicians who understand that the Orange
Revolution has led to irrevocable changes in the consciousness of many
Ukrainians. They know that the constant political struggle of the last
two years needs to be followed by a period of stability, if not
outright cooperation. While the Regions have many political troglodytes
who seek revenge and the restoration of authoritarian rule, there is
also a group influenced by business lobbies, such as tycoon Rinat
Akhmetov, that wants stability, European integration, a prosperous
economy and the diminishing of the political and regional divide.
Myth Three: There is a danger of a so-called "revanche," or tilt
toward Russia.
Wrong again. While it is regrettable that the Regions have so many
politicians who have questionable democratic credentials, and many are
alleged to be implicated in the efforts to falsify the presidential
elections of 2004, "revanche" is hardly possible.
First, in Viktor Yushchenko, Ukraine has an honest and democratic
president who retains considerable power in the areas of national
security and foreign policy, and who will influence government through
the Our Ukraine bloc. Second, power is now dispersed within the state
and between the state and society. No one can acquire unchecked powers.
Myth Four: The lack of consensus on economics inside the Orange camp
and the absence of a stable majority will result in policy zigzags that
will discourage Western investment and hold back economic growth.
Wrong again. Nearly all politicians make extravagant, budget-busting
promises in election campaigns. That is one of the unfortunate
characteristics of democratic contestation. But once in power, the need
to maintain budgetary discipline leads many populist promises to be
toned down or forgotten.
Because oligarchs and leading businessmen are dispersed across the
spectrum of political parties, they are likely to cooperate in pressing
to reduce taxes and control inflation, which threaten to erode profits.
Ukraine's emerging business elite are likely to influence most
parties and parliamentarians to promote pro-business policies.
So, with a parliament in which no single group will dominate; power
divided between the president, parliament, government and
Constitutional Court; a differentiated business elite; and an active
civil society and media that showed their mettle in December 2004,
Ukraine may be headed for a soft landing.
Then there is the Russia factor. Russia's energy pressures on Ukraine
this winter may well have been an effort to destabilize Ukraine, but
it's important that such moves would primarily serve as a blow to the
economic interests of Ukraine's industrial east. Russia's moves
have helped focus the minds of Ukraine's eastern magnates on the fact
that economic sovereignty requires diversification, cooperation with a
wide array of neighbors in the West and Central Asia, not necessarily
integration with Moscow.
Political analysts run a great risk in predicting. But unless the
pollsters are fabulously wrong, on March 27 Ukraine will have an Orange
government led by Our Ukraine, Tymoshenko's Byut and the Socialists,
with a prime minister from Our Ukraine, and Yulia Tymoshenko as
parliament speaker.
If Tymoshenko moves away from the sharp political intramural fight to a
coalition approach (not a sure thing), the new Orange alignment will be
stable and effective over the long haul.
Whatever path Tymoshenko takes on issues such as tax relief and energy
policy, there is likely to be a clear parliamentary majority made up of
a coalition of politicians who answer to pragmatic economic interests.
Readers and investors visiting Kyiv to try and make sense of the storm
shouldn't worry: Ukraine will have a soft landing.
The post-Communist era is over. The authoritarian era is done. Divided
power, multiple interests, snarky media, powerful lobbies, intrusive
civic organizations and individual ambitions rule. And that means the
Orange Revolution has triumphed and that Ukraine is now much like the
democratic world that views and misunderstands it from afar.
Adrian Karatnycky is president and founder of the Orange Circle, a New
York-based international nongovernmental organization that promotes
Ukraine's integration into Europe and the democratic community of
nations through conferences, briefings, research and the facilitation
of investment and business and contacts.
----------------------------
BM
"The Black Monk" <ch....@hotmail.com> wrote in message
news:1143131175.5...@g10g2000cwb.googlegroups.com...
Isn't it amazing that all advocates of "Ukraine's integration into
Europe" are not in Ukraine itself and not in Europe, but work out of
Washington, DC and New York, NY offices? Mind boggling, isn't it?
It seems that New York and Washington are now the places where all the
decisions concerning the future of Europe and Ukraine are made, and if
their "integration" will occur on terms that benefit not Ukrianians of
Europeans but the US government and the corporations that fund it.
>
> Anyone who wants to understand Ukraine from afar is in big trouble.
>
Interesting admission...
How much farther can you get from Ukraine than New York, NY?
I guess Adrian Karatnycky's decision to base his "international
nongovernmental organization that promotes Ukraine's integration into
Europe" in New York was motivated by his desire to misunderstand
Ukraine as much as do other Ameircan organizations. Interesting...
Also interesting is that USA's foreign policies are determined by
Americans like Mr. Adrian Karatnycky, who live on the other side of the
Globe, who visit Ukriane just for a few days per year, and who
thmselves proudly admit that their understanding of Ukriane is "in big
trouble"....
>
> I came to a very different country when I revisited Ukraine four months
> ago, having visited many times in earlier years.
>
That's what I see on US TV too. America's mighty propaganda machine has
recently discovered amazing changes and miracles that have occurred in
Ukraine ever since Yuschenko came to power. True miracles!
For example, do you remember how the US Senate enacted a
Jackson-Vannick Amendment some 30 years ago, which slapped draconian
tariffs and banned all kinds of Soviet exports until the Soviet Union
lifted its barriers to the emigration of Jew and others? Well, the
Soviet Union hasn't existed for about 15 years. Ukraine and Russia have
had totally open emigration policies for almost 20 years. Any Jew,
Christian, Buddhist or anybody else can leave Russia and Ukraine any
second they want.
In fact, their migration policies are much freer than those of, say,
the United States. Unlike Americans (whose Big Brother government
tells them where they may travel and where they may not and can put in
jail anybody who disobeys), Russia/Ukraine give their citizens the full
freedom to travel anywhere they want or need.
While most people in the World (including most Russians, Ukrainians and
Balts) are denied US entry visas to travel to the US as visitors or
tourists, pretty much anybody (including Americans) is given visas to
visit Russia and Ukraine.
Yet, for all these decades, the US President (first Clinton then Bush
Jr) took time form their busy schedules (invading foreign countries is
a full time business!) to sign a veto against the lifting of the
draconian Jackson-Vannick economic sanctions against Ukraine and
Russia, each year.
Saudi Arabia has amazing racist migration policies, barring Blacks and
Jews from entering Saudi Arabia. The Saudi Arabian establishment is
busily spreading Vakhabi teachings all over the World, and is
sponsoring the anti-Western terrorist activities of their favorite son
Osama Bin Laden. Yet, Saudi Arabia enjoys full privileges of the most
economically favoured partner of USA. But the pro-Western free
capitalist democracies of Ukraine and Russia are blockaded from
exporting their products in USA.
Until yesterday that is. Yesterday, Bush lifted the Jackson-Vannick
sanctions against Ukraine. Has the Ukrainian emigration policy change
in the last year or so? No. It is exactly as free as it has been for
more than 15 years.
The only things that have changed in Ukraine over the last year or so
are:
1. Ukraine has had more corruption-related scandals than before.
2. Ukraine's phenomenal economic growth in previous years has been
halted.
3. President Kuchma, who pursued a neutral, independent foreign policy,
was replaced by a vigorously pro-American President Yuschenko.
Draw your own conclusions.
Interestingly, the Jackson-Vannick sanctions against Russia have NOT
been lifted. Even though Russia's emigration policies are the same as
Ukraine's and are among the very freest in the whole World.
Miracles all around!
But there is a much bigger miracle going on now. The US mass media have
discovered Ukraine as a new tourist mecca. And the number one tourist
destination in Ukraine? Chernobyl, of course!
Do you recall how the nuclear catastrophy there made the land dangerous
to humans for centuries to come? Well, NBC TV recently ran a piece
about Chernobyl. According to it, Chernobyl is "blooming". Its animal
life is "thriving"! Apparently, on the day that Yuschenko declared his
new pro-American foreign policy, laws of Nature ceased to apply to
Ukraine. The harmful effects of radiation stopped on that very day, and
radiation became instrumental in promoting the "blossoming" and
"thriving" of plants and animals in Chernobyl!
The works of God are truly miraculous! The Almighty will change the
Laws of Nature just to reward those countries who choose to see the
Light and decide to follow God's pro-American foreign policy! And vise
versa: any country, that chooses to challenge America's "New World
Order" (or "die Neue Welt Ordnung", as this term was first coined by
the Nazi Germans), will soon experience all kinds of locusts and
disasters like a foreign invasion, destruction of mosques and churches,
chaos, rampant unemployment, fratricide, civil war, terrorism, etc.
etc.
Let's rejoice, brothers, in the miraculous power of our American God
and his American son Jesus Christ! Long live the all-powerful and
all-knowing American mass media! Halleluiah, comrades!
Or, as the US State Department likes to say, "the last thing" that the
racially superior Albanians "need is a bunch of" racially inferior
"Ukrainians running around with guns"....
I liked your post up to "Miracles all around", at which point it
became nonsensical.
Regarding the statement by Adrian Karatnycky that Ukraine changed so
much in the last four months, I personally don't believe it. I haven't
been to Ukraine recently, but I have done business with Ukrainians for
a number of years and I have not seen any significant change since the
orange revolution. In the past I often complained that one had to go
through all kinds of bureaucratic steps to get paid from Ukraine. One
had to send an invoice, then a so called "Act", then a so called
"Protocol", all of them signed and sealed by both parties, and then
wait for three of four months before payment is transferred. I hoped
that after this liberalizing "revolution" all this will be scrapped
and a normal "invoice" would be found acceptable and quickly paid.
Well absolutely nothing has changed.
If nothing has changed in the basic way of doing business with
Ukraine, I rather suspect that not much has changed in the other
aspects of life.
Regarding the Jackson-Vannick sanctions, I fully agree with you. I
still remember when Bill Clinton went to Ukraine in 1995, making big
speeches there about freedom and human rights and congratulating
Ukrainians for the progress they made since independence. But the
Jackson-Vannick sanctions were maintained. And now GWB makes it appear
as a big favor to Ukraine and diaspora Ukrainians are rejoicing. Again
it won't make much difference from the business standpoint, since
commerce between Ukraine and the US is minuscule, and each time the US
wanted to impose stiff levies against Ukrainian steel or other
products, they just did it.
The big problem is that the EU is not acting more favorably toward
business with Ukraine than the US and since the "gas" dispute its
relations with Russia have deteriorated. So it stands alone and this
is not a good thing. That is why Yanukovich will win the largest
electoral vote, since many Ukrainians hope that he will at least
reestablish better relations with Russia.
Yes an interesting conclusion :) and so logial :-p
> Also interesting is that USA's foreign policies are determined by
> Americans like Mr. Adrian Karatnycky, who live on the other side of the
> Globe, who visit Ukriane just for a few days per year, and who
> thmselves proudly admit that their understanding of Ukriane is "in big
> trouble"....
>
Another interesting conclusion :-p
>
>> I came to a very different country when I revisited Ukraine four months
>>ago, having visited many times in earlier years.
>>
>
>
> That's what I see on US TV too. America's mighty propaganda machine has
> recently discovered amazing changes and miracles that have occurred in
> Ukraine ever since Yuschenko came to power. True miracles!
>
> For example, do you remember how the US Senate enacted a
> Jackson-Vannick Amendment some 30 years ago,
I remember but isn't it amazing that Mr. vkarlamov claims to remember? :-)
What did you think of it at the time?
> which slapped draconian
> tariffs and banned all kinds of Soviet exports until the Soviet Union
> lifted its barriers to the emigration of Jew and others? Well, the
> Soviet Union hasn't existed for about 15 years. Ukraine and Russia have
> had totally open emigration policies for almost 20 years. Any Jew,
> Christian, Buddhist or anybody else can leave Russia and Ukraine any
> second they want.
>
How does Russia suddenly enter into all this?
Yesterday? What is your date for yesterday?
very entertaining post mr. karlamov; very entertaining indeed!
I usually go to Moscow rather than Ukraine, so I too can't personally
attest to any changes over there. However, from afar, it seems obvious
that the Ukrainian media is far freer now than in the most (at least,
far more likely to criticise the president and his family).
The business with the steel mill being resold for a few billion more
than it had been under the Kuchma regime, helping to pay for pensions
etc., was also a positive change.
...cut...
> That is why Yanukovich will win the largest
> electoral vote, since many Ukrainians hope that he will at least
> reestablish better relations with Russia.
Based upon the most recent polls from a week or two ago, Yanukovich and
others seeking closer integration with Russia will win about as much of
the vote as he did during the elections, in which he came out the
loser. The only reason why his party will win the most seats of any
single party is because the Orange group is divided. But the Orange
group all together (NU + BYT + Moroz + Pora) will still outnumber the
pro-Russian group (Yanukovich + Communists + Vitrenko + Ne Tak):
http://en.for-ua.com/news/2006/03/13/110051.html
Party of Regions (PR) 26.0%
Yulia Timoshenko Bloc 22.0%
People's Union-Our Ukraine (NS-NU) 16.7%
Popular Bloc My (We) 6.3%
Socialist Party of Ukraine (SPU) 6.3%
Communist Party of Ukraine (KPU) 4.9%
Nataliya Vitrenko "People's Opposition" 2.6%
Civil Coalition Pora-PRP 2.1%
Oppositional bloc "Not Yes!" 1.7%
Nothing in such results indicates that the Ukrainian people want closer
relations with Russia than they did in 2004.
regards,
BM
vkar...@yahoo.com wrote:
>
> The Black Monk wrote:
> >
> > Ukraine better off than it seems
> > Mar 23 2006, 15:34
> >
> > >
> > Adrian Karatnycky is president and founder of the Orange Circle, a New
> > York-based international nongovernmental organization that promotes
> > Ukraine's integration into Europe
> >
>
> Isn't it amazing that all advocates of "Ukraine's integration into
> Europe" are not in Ukraine itself and not in Europe, but work out of
> Washington, DC and New York, NY offices?
Hey, hey - slow down. I do not cultivate oranges, I love pomegranates.
Even in a such barrel of Golden Apples as NYC one can find a couple of
rotten oranges.
VM.
from my office,
NYC, NY.
Why are you amazed? You don't beleiv ethat I am over 40?
>
> What did you think of it at the time?
>
I was very much in favor of it. I was and still am dead agianst all
dictatorships, especially communist ones.
Freedom of emigration is a very important freedom.
Why do you ask? You disagree?
>
> > which slapped draconian
> > tariffs and banned all kinds of Soviet exports until the Soviet Union
> > lifted its barriers to the emigration of Jew and others? Well, the
> > Soviet Union hasn't existed for about 15 years. Ukraine and Russia have
> > had totally open emigration policies for almost 20 years. Any Jew,
> > Christian, Buddhist or anybody else can leave Russia and Ukraine any
> > second they want.
> >
> How does Russia suddenly enter into all this?
>
Read below.
I heard of it yestarday. When was it signed? Day before yesterday?
Today?
In any case, I am glad you had nothing sumbstantive to say agianst my
points.
I am glad you understand the hypocritical nature of USA's Eastern
European policy.
Thanks, captain. I have been watching the Daily Show and the Colbert
Report on Comedy Central lately, and their sense of sarcasm is rubbing
off on me.
>>
>>How does Russia suddenly enter into all this?
>
> Read below.
>
All I see is just what you wrote before. No new text. So why is Russia
suddenly being introduced into this discussion?
>
>>>In fact, their migration policies are much freer than those of, say,
>>>the United States. Unlike Americans (whose Big Brother government
>>>tells them where they may travel and where they may not and can put in
>>>jail anybody who disobeys), Russia/Ukraine give their citizens the full
>>>freedom to travel anywhere they want or need.
>>>
>>>While most people in the World (including most Russians, Ukrainians and
>>>Balts) are denied US entry visas to travel to the US as visitors or
>>>tourists, pretty much anybody (including Americans) is given visas to
>>>visit Russia and Ukraine.
Care to speculate on the reasons that this inequity in granting visas
exists? Is it at all similar to the reasons that the soviet empire
refused to grant both entry and exit visas, at least to people in and
originally from Ukraine? Or is it something else?
I also believe that it isn't just the US that makes it difficult for
Ukrainians to get tourist visas. I think that at least Canada does
as well.
>>>Yet, for all these decades, the US President (first Clinton then Bush
>>>Jr) took time form their busy schedules (invading foreign countries is
>>>a full time business!) to sign a veto against the lifting of the
>>>draconian Jackson-Vannick economic sanctions against Ukraine and
>>>Russia, each year.
Yes, Ukrainians in the US and elsewhere considered the trade
restrictions against Ukraine to be prejudicially unjustified
and helped the Ukrainian organizations in the US to lobby
for the lifting of the sanctions.
>>>
>>>Saudi Arabia has amazing racist migration policies, barring Blacks and
>>>Jews from entering Saudi Arabia. The Saudi Arabian establishment is
>>>busily spreading Vakhabi teachings all over the World, and is
>>>sponsoring the anti-Western terrorist activities of their favorite son
>>>Osama Bin Laden. Yet, Saudi Arabia enjoys full privileges of the most
>>>economically favoured partner of USA. But the pro-Western free
>>>capitalist democracies of Ukraine and Russia are blockaded from
>>>exporting their products in USA.
>>>
>>>Until yesterday that is. Yesterday, Bush lifted the Jackson-Vannick
>>>sanctions against Ukraine. Has the Ukrainian emigration policy change
>>>in the last year or so? No. It is exactly as free as it has been for
>>>more than 15 years.
>>
>>Yesterday? What is your date for yesterday?
>
> I heard of it yestarday. When was it signed? Day before yesterday?
> Today?
The measure cleared the US House of Representatives on March 8, with
a vote of some 450 for, 2 against, and 3 abstentions. There were calls
for the senate to pass the bill so that GWB could sign it while
Tarasiuk was in Washington. On or about March 10 Tarasiuk and ???
signed a fairly big trade deal. So I had thought that GWB had signed
the law lifting the J-V restrictions against Ukraine earlier.
I wonder why it was signed so late.
>
> In any case, I am glad you had nothing sumbstantive to say agianst my
> points.
>
Oh I'm sure that you are glad. ;)
But don't interpret that as agreeing with your intents to slander
both the US and Ukraine. Especially the current new regime.
> I am glad you understand the hypocritical nature of USA's Eastern
> European policy.
>
I'd just call it self serving. Which is no different from Russia,
China, Britain, France, and everybody else against everybody else.
>
>>>The only things that have changed in Ukraine over the last year
>>>or so are:
>>>
>>>1. Ukraine has had more corruption-related scandals than before.
>>>
Really? :-D
>>>2. Ukraine's phenomenal economic growth in previous years has
>>>been halted.
>>>
Really? :-D
>>>3. President Kuchma, who pursued a neutral, independent foreign policy,
Really?
>>>was replaced by a vigorously pro-American President Yuschenko.
>>>
>>>Draw your own conclusions.
>>>
Ok. For probably patriotic reasons you are attempting to deliberately
slander the democratic developments that have occurred in Ukraine in
2005. Also despite your protestations you are an admirer of the former
soviet empire and your upbringing in that system leads you to
automatically slander the US while looking for things to admire about
the regime in Moscow.
>>>Interestingly, the Jackson-Vannick sanctions against Russia have NOT
>>>been lifted. Even though Russia's emigration policies are the same as
>>>Ukraine's and are among the very freest in the whole World.
Perhaps the other clauses of the J-V dealing with human rights are the
stumbling block for Russia.
Oh I agree that the human rights violations are even worse in some other
countries that are in the most favoured category. But they don't fall
in the group that are covered in the J-V language. i.e. not former
soviet block.
>>>
>>>Miracles all around!
>>>
>>>But there is a much bigger miracle going on now. The US mass media have
>>>discovered Ukraine as a new tourist mecca. And the number one tourist
>>>destination in Ukraine? Chernobyl, of course!
Hey a tourist $ is a tourist $, no BIG matter whether they go to see
Chernobyl, or Treblinka, or Lenin's Mausoleum, or the beaches of Krym
or the charm of the Carpathians, or golden domed Kyiv.
>>>
>>>Do you recall how the nuclear catastrophy there made the land dangerous
>>>to humans for centuries to come? Well, NBC TV recently ran a piece
>>>about Chernobyl. According to it, Chernobyl is "blooming". Its animal
>>>life is "thriving"! Apparently, on the day that Yuschenko declared his
>>>new pro-American foreign policy, laws of Nature ceased to apply to
>>>Ukraine. The harmful effects of radiation stopped on that very day, and
>>>radiation became instrumental in promoting the "blossoming" and
>>>"thriving" of plants and animals in Chernobyl!
>>>
>>>The works of God are truly miraculous! The Almighty will change the
>>>Laws of Nature just to reward those countries who choose to see the
>>>Light and decide to follow God's pro-American foreign policy! And vise
>>>versa:
Now you are going off the deep end and being silly.
The laws of nature have not been changed.!
Sure there is a higher mutation rate and radiation caused death rate
among the animals, and plants in the area. That would also apply to
any humans if they moved back into the area. But unless you are
intending to live in that area or eat the produce of that area, wild
nature is thriving in the area. I.e. animals breed, plants bloom.
Species that were dying off due to the pressure of human civilization
are growing back.
But humans are only concerned if an area is safe for humans.
>>>any country, that chooses to challenge America's "New World
>>>Order" (or "die Neue Welt Ordnung", as this term was first coined by
>>>the Nazi Germans), will soon experience all kinds of locusts and
>>>disasters like a foreign invasion, destruction of mosques and churches,
>>>chaos, rampant unemployment, fratricide, civil war, terrorism, etc.
>>>etc.
>>>
>>>Let's rejoice, brothers, in the miraculous power of our American God
>>>and his American son Jesus Christ! Long live the all-powerful and
>>>all-knowing American mass media! Halleluiah, comrades!
>>>
>>>Or, as the US State Department likes to say, "the last thing" that the
>>>racially superior Albanians "need is a bunch of" racially inferior
>>>"Ukrainians running around with guns"....
>>>
Yeah, What happened to the guy who said that? :(
Do your "Larry the Cable Guy" routine. Must keep the captain entertained!
P.S. Do you have a Milk Dud lodged in your butt crack?
lol, they created a group called ne tak? that's pretty comical.
i'm too busy watching the player's championship in golf right now.
That's almost as exciting as watching colon polyps grow.
I hear MTRP volunteered to stand on his head and be the 18th hole this year.
How very sporting of the old chap !
I am not sure what you mean here. I am not a big expert on the mass
culture. Is this something that you associiate with Jon Stewart or
Stephen Ciolbert? Why?
Both are the favorite sports of American politicians, aren't they?
Yes, they did. Idiots. Remarkable thing is that communists are
separated in 3 little parties: KPU, Vitrenko & Ne Tak. Both Vitrenko and
Ne-Tak closely failed to pass 3% barrier, those taking away from the
communist representation.
KPU closely passed. For the first time, communists are going to have
only about 3% of sits. This is a quite a loss compared to about 15% they
had in previous parliament. They no longer constitute a power to reckon
with... Partly this is result of the change in the election laws -
voting by by party-lists only. In the past communists were always
getting a lot of representation through direct election of factory
directors etc who bribed/intimidated the subordinate electorate.
In overall, everything goes as predicted by opinions pulls. As
Timoshenko got so much more vote than Nasha Ukraina, it looks
like the coalition between with them becomes more and more likely.
The proportion of pro-western vs. pro-russia is indeed unchanged
compared to last year, a fact that western media completely misses.
If anything, due to demise of communists, pro-western ratio has
increased.
I will be quite uneasy with Timoshenko as prime minister, I bet
Ukraine will be in for some rough times this year (specially in
relation to gas). Well, population is amply warned about that and
yet they voted for Timoshenko. Now they will get what they wanted. Later
I hope it will stabilize as different possible cards she has will play
out. It is much easier to yell about canceling the deal than actually
creating some constructive alternative.
Regioni will constitute substantial counter-balance in parliament to
stop any too radical initiatives that would require 2/3 majority, and
president will prevent too rampant attempts of micro-managing the
courts, so in overall will might have the best of all worlds - e.g.
balanced reforms. I hope Luzenko will stay as main cop. 7% gained by
socialist party virtually assures that.
Regards,
Evgenij
golf is only interesting to watch if you like to play it.
it's a great game. you can play it until you are 90!
Watching paint dry is fun if you like painting.
You don't like painting. Yet, you still love to inhale the vapors while
the paint is drying, don't you? Juding from your posts, you certainly
do.