An issue that will now be seriously discussed is whether the low, flat-tax
regime for which Estonia became the darling of the neoliberals before the
financial crisis, but which has left much of the country with bare-bones
public services and on the brink of bankruptcy, should be replaced with a
quasi-Nordic-type higher, graduated tax regime that would guarantee better
public services and a tighter social safety net.
Regards,
Eugene Holman
Source: http://www.epl.ee/artikkel/480519
<quote>
Keskerakonna triumf - j�lle ainuv�im
[Centre Party victory - again an absolute mandate]
00.30
18. oktoober 2009 20:09
[00.30 AM, October 18, 2009, 8.09 PM]
Kohalike omavalitsuste valimiste esialgsed tulemused annavad Tallinnas
v�idu Keskerakonnale, kellel on praegu koos 53,5% h��ltest ehk 44
mandaati.
[Preliminary results in the local government elections give the Centre
Party, presently with 53.3% of the votes or 44 mandates, a victory in
Tallinn.]
Praeguseks on Tallinnas kokku loetud 212 975 h��lt.
[As of now, 212,975 votes have been counted in Tallinn.]
Keskerakonnale kuulub 53,5%, Reformierakonnale 16,6%, IRL-ile 15,4%,
sotsidele 9,8%, rohelistele 2,1% ning kristlikele demokraatidele 0,3%.
[The Centre Party received 53.5% of the votes, the Reform Party 16.6%, the
IRL (Union of Pro Patria and Res Publica) 15.4%, the Social Democrats
9.8%, the Greens 2.1%, and the Christian Democrats 0.3%.]
Nende tulemuste kohaselt kuulub Reformierakonnale Tallinnas 14 mandaati,
IRL-ile 13 ning sotsidele 8.
[On the basis of these results, the Reform Party in Tallinn will have 14
mandates, the IRL 13, and the Social Democrats 8.]
Enim h��li on Tallinnas kogunud Edgar Savisaar - 38 978, teine on J�ri
Ratas - 9733 ning kolmas Deniss Borodita - 6642. IRL-i esinumber Mart Laar
on kogunud 5294 h��lt ja on viiendal positsioonil, Reformierakonna
linnapeakandidaat Keit Pentus on 3416 h��lega 13. kohal ning
sotsiaaldemokraatide esimees J�ri Pihl 2281 h��lega 17.
[The person receiving the most votes � 38,978 � in Tallinn was Edgar
Savisaar, followed by J�ri Ratas with 9,733 votes and Deniss Borodita,
with 6642. Mart Laar, with 5,294, received the most votes for the IRL,
thus coming in fifth. Keit Pentus, the Reform Party candidate for mayor,
took 13th place with 3,416 votes, while J�ri Pihl, head of the Social
Democrates, took 17th place with 2,281 votes.]
�le Eesti on praeguseks kokku loetud 633 765 h�lt ning esirinnas on samuti
Keskerakond 31,2%, j�rgneb Reformierakond 17% ning kolmas IRL 14,1%.
[In Estonia overall a total of 633,765 votes have been counted, with the
same three parties, Centre with 31.2%, the Reform Party with 17%, and IRL
with 14.1%, being in the forefront.]
M��dunud KOV valimistel 2005. aastal kogus Keskerakond pealinnas 41% h��ltest.
[In the previous local government elections of 2005 the Centre Party took
41% of the votes in Tallinn.]
</quote>
Regards,
Eugene Holman
If you by "graduated tax regime" mean progressive income taxes, then
you should know that such taxes guarantee no better public services
nor a tighter social safety net. They function well to keep people
from working harder and more, but they bring no useful extra income to
the state.
Remains to discuss whether Estonia should raise taxes. Seems like a
silly idea in a bad economy, doesn't it? Not exactly what Keynes would
have prescribed.
Generally, stupid ideas enter the political systems when times are
good. That's what happened to the Nordic countries in the sixties.
We're suffering still, but Estonia should be safe for a while.
--
Fredrik Östman
It's quite a normal that during economical recession opposition gets
someway plus votes and govt parties will lose something.
Probably, that they can get a job easier with lower taxes than with
higher taxes.
--
Fredrik Östman
The question of high taxes vs low taxes is in reality a question a
mandatory investment: education, social safety, health care. All these
fields create consumers and businesses and produce taxpayers what in
result may allow to lower taxes. So the problem left is to design a
system and watchdog which wouldn't let to gamble or waste the tax money.
For that one can hire a private audit company with good experience.
Quite keynesian to me.
VM.
There's a nugget of truth there. But (a) you can force people without
using taxes (see Germany) and (b) the level of investment, or at least
the return on this investment, is not higher in the Nordic countries
where taxes are extremely high, than in other developed countries.
It's not the taxes, but the development that pays. Taxes rather tend
to stop development. Its a dynamic system.
--
Fredrik Östman
You seem to ignore the ethnic aspect. If my information is correct, a
very large percentage of the Russians in Estonia vote Centre because
it is the only major Estonian party that isn't profoundly anti-
Russian. (I may be wrong, but this is the impression I get from the
Finnish media, year after year.)
Hiski
That is also an issue. Being Russian or Russian speaking in Estonia often
means being socially and economically marginalized to at least a certain
extent. All things considered, T�nu Karu is more likely to be hired in
Estonia, unless he lives in Narva or its surroundings, for a job involving
contact with the public than Timofey Medvedev, unless Timofey's Estonian
is faultless to the second power.
But I think that a more important issue is that Savisaar, better than many
an Estonian politician, understands that the flat-tax regime has done all
that it can have been expected to do, and that a graduated tax system that
finances a better social safety network would be a better for ensuring
Estonia's longer-term social security.
The flat tax enabled Estonia, which literally started from zero when it
regained its independence, to establish solid middle and upper classes,
bourgeoise classes indebted to the state for having given them the
opportunities to make and keep as much money as they could. I see nothing
bad in this as part of a training-wheels route to a market economy. The
issue now is the degree to which social stability in the future can be
maintained if Estonian society closes its eyes to the existence of an
increasing gulf between very rich and very poor people, some of the latter
being folks who are elderly with only Soviet work histories and pensions
to match, children of dysfunctional families, or otherwise socially
marginalized. A society is best judged by the manner in which it allows
its weakest members to live and be treated. In my humble view, the current
Estonian flat-tax regime, with its lean and mean government, has allowed
many of those Estonians who benefit most from it to avoid serious social
responsibility towards those of their compatriots who have not been as
fortunate. Edgar Savisaar is the most prominent Estonian politician to
have raised and concretely acted on this issue.
I hasten to add that I am co-owner of a company in Estonia that has
benefited considerably from the flat-tax regime. In my opinion, however,
the time has come to consider whether those who have benefited from such a
regime in the past should be willing to pay a larger proportion of their
gross income in the form of higher taxes that would make life somewhat
easier for those inhabitants of Estonia who have not been as fortunate as
we have been.
Regards,
Eugene Holman
One important peroblem here - Estonia was maybe first in all EE where
state really succeeded in collecting taxes. A lot of people afraid
that it will be lost if we start to differ taxes by income. Our
companies are mostly small and "labour cost sensitive", it means that
a lot of people would start to think is it possible to formally hire
his grandmom as part time worker to keep "official" salary under low-
tax line :-)
> On Oct 20, 10:56=A0pm, hol...@mappi.helsinki.fi (Eugene Holman) wrote:
<deletions>
> > In my humble view, the current
> > Estonian flat-tax regime, with its lean and mean government, has allowed
> > many of those Estonians who benefit most from it to avoid serious social
> > responsibility towards those of their compatriots who have not been as
> > fortunate. Edgar Savisaar is the most prominent Estonian politician to
> > have raised and concretely acted on this issue.
> >
> > I hasten to add that I am co-owner of a company in Estonia that has
> > benefited considerably from the flat-tax regime. In my opinion, however,
> > the time has come to consider whether those who have benefited from such =
> a
> > regime in the past should be willing to pay a larger proportion of their
> > gross income in the form of higher taxes that would make life somewhat
> > easier for those inhabitants of Estonia who have not been as fortunate as
> > we have been.
>
> One important peroblem here - Estonia was maybe first in all EE where
> state really succeeded in collecting taxes. A lot of people afraid
> that it will be lost if we start to differ taxes by income.
That is a risk that all governments take.
> Our
> companies are mostly small and "labour cost sensitive", it means that
> a lot of people would start to think is it possible to formally hire
> his grandmom as part time worker to keep "official" salary under low-
> tax line :-)
The brown envelope with a few 500 krooni banknotes a few times a year
already exists; tax-collectors will always be outsmarted to some extent by
those obligated to pay taxes. Still, there is no denying the fact that the
growing gulf between the rich and the poor, as well as existence of
super-rich and extremely poor people in Estonia is not a sign of a
completely healthy society. In the United States, where even greater
disparities exit between the very rich and very poor, partially due to
creative bookkeeping which enables to very rich to minimlize their tax
burdens, vast amounts of resources go into incarcerating economically and
socially marginalized people during the time of their lives when they
would theoretically be most productive.
For details, see e.g.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/story/2008/02/28/ST2008022803016.html.
Regards,
Eugene Holman
That is a good point - one can announce any tax rate, this is simple. Un
simple is to collect - for that one need a trained army like IRS of the US.
VM.
This is a major misconception. The bulk of income tax is payed by the
normal working class. The people with a much higher income are so few,
that only a few percent more income tax would be the result even of a
total socialization of all incomes substantially over the average.
You can damage the economy and the moral of a country severly by
graduated income taxes, but you can't raise noticeable amounts of
money for the state.
In Sweden, there has been a flat income tax since 1989. Only, a
nominally temporary punishment tax of 5% was added by the social-
democrats in 1994 because they hate people with high income. So there
are two (2) brackets. This tax has later been raised partly
automatically through inflation, partly through political decisions,
but it still brings in only about 3% of the whole income tax. The
damage it does to tax-paying morale, to the willingness to work some
more, to the profitability of the black labour market etc. is however
considerable.
--
Fredrik Östman
> >-----< Eugene Holman >
> > But I think that a more important issue is that Savisaar, better
> > than many an Estonian politician, understands that the flat-tax
> > regime has done all that it can have been expected to do, and that a
> > graduated tax system that finances a better social safety network
> > would be a better for ensuring Estonia's longer-term social security.
>
> This is a major misconception. The bulk of income tax is payed by the
> normal working class. The people with a much higher income are so few,
> that only a few percent more income tax would be the result even of a
> total socialization of all incomes substantially over the average.
A flat-tax regime makes those at the lower end of the scale pay a higher
percentage of their wages than they would pay if there were a graduated
tax.
> You can damage the economy and the moral of a country severly by
> graduated income taxes, but you can't raise noticeable amounts of
> money for the state.
Up until the financial crisis, the leading Estonian political parties
tended to favor a gradual lowering the flat rate of taxation. When
introduced in 1994 it was 26%. It currently stands at 21% and there have
been plans to gradually reduce it to 18% by 2012 (cf.
http://www.zeit.de/2005/36/Osteuropa).
>
> In Sweden, there has been a flat income tax since 1989. Only, a
> nominally temporary punishment tax of 5% was added by the social-
> democrats in 1994 because they hate people with high income. So there
> are two (2) brackets. This tax has later been raised partly
> automatically through inflation, partly through political decisions,
> but it still brings in only about 3% of the whole income tax. The
> damage it does to tax-paying morale, to the willingness to work some
> more, to the profitability of the black labour market etc. is however
> considerable.
I understand your point, but I would still argue that a graduated tax
system obligating those with the lowest income to pay a proportionately
lower percentage of their income in taxes, and those with mid and high
level incomes to pay a proportionately higher percentage does more to
level out the vicissitudes of the marketplace and human variation than a
flat tax in which everyone pays the same percentage of income. The value
added tax on consumption is, of course, that kind of tax. Although it hits
the poor and rich alike, the rich usually pay a larger amount because they
tend to consume more.
Whatever the arguments for the differet types of tax regimes, the Estonian
model seems to have come to an end. Taxes do not cover the cost of
government, the social safety net is thin with large holes, and many of
the local goverments outside the relatively prosperous Tallinn-P�rnu-Tartu
triangle are close to bankruptcy.
This is one of the reasons that Savisaar, who have made this an issue, and
his Centre Party, did so well in the recent elections. Some of the support
that he received from Russian speakers has to be understood in the light
of the fact that north-eastern Estonia and the communities along the
western shore of Lake Peipus have large Russian-speaking minorities in
addition to being the most economically depressed parts of the country.
Regards,
Eugene Holman
Here a lot of people will not agree with you - for rich ones
consumption makes usually much smaller %% from their income then for a
guy paying all his small salary for home, food, clothing and fuel.
>
> Whatever the arguments for the differet types of tax regimes, the Estonian
> model seems to have come to an end. Taxes do not cover the cost of
> government, the social safety net is thin with large holes, and many of
> the local goverments outside the relatively prosperous Tallinn-Pärnu-Tartu
> triangle are close to bankruptcy.
sure adjustments are needed. But don't fogot that "Estonian model"
brings enormous surplus of tax money in 2002-2007. That's why %% of
income tax starts to fall. where you collect your data, Eugene? You
are almost local so you had to know real situation. Income levels are
no secret in Estonia, No for Tallinn is about 10% higher then in
Estonia as a whole - quite a equal wealth distribution, at least in EE
terms.
More, "Estonian model" is in reality not so "flat". If you earn less
then 210USD per month you don't pay income tax at all. If you earn
more, you pay your 21% from sum over "tax-free" 210 dollars. with
medium salary about 1200 USD in Estonia, it makes real difference -
rich ones pay really (almost) 21%, people with smaller income - much
less. Don't know tax system for Sweden, but if it is like Fredrik
describes, people with small income will gain more from Estonian
system.
>
> This is one of the reasons that Savisaar, who have made this an issue, and
> his Centre Party, did so well in the recent elections. Some of the support
> that he received from Russian speakers has to be understood in the light
> of the fact that north-eastern Estonia and the communities along the
> western shore of Lake Peipus have large Russian-speaking minorities in
> addition to being the most economically depressed parts of the country.
Well no way North-East is the "most economically depressed" part of
Estonia. Look at http://www.virumaa.info/static/files/093/18._palk_ja_sissetulekud_2008t.pdf.
From our 15 regions russian-speaking Ida-Virumaa is no 11 by incomes
per capita. Last (most poor) ones are Hiiumaa and Valga - and as you
know Hiiumaa is 100% estonian-speaking. Lääne-Virumaa, other northern
region with large russian-speaking population, is exactly on the
medium level for Estonia.
>
> Regards,
> Eugene Holman
> Well no way North-East is the "most economically
> depressed" part of Estonia. Look at
> http://www.virumaa.info/static/files/093/18._palk_ja_sissetulekud_2008t.pdf.
> From our 15 regions russian-speaking Ida-Virumaa is no 11
> by incomes per capita. Last (most poor) ones are Hiiumaa
> and Valga - and as you know Hiiumaa is 100% estonian-speaking.
Shouldn't one be looking at the last table: 'Keskmine sissetulek maakonniti'
(Average income by county)? There East Viru is the last and Hiiumaa (Dag�)
actually number 2.
Right. What makes the difference - unemployment? Or "black incomes"?
Coz medium salaries in Hiiumaa are miserable yet medium income is
OK :-)
> Coz medium salaries in Hiiumaa are
> miserable yet medium income is OK :-)
Hey, that's interesting. What the hell are they doing? They used to plunder
wrecks in the bad old days of the Ungern-Sternbergs. Maybe 'Hiiu Vill' has
become very profitable. (I like that company name -- it sounds
super-Estonian.)
Isn't Hiiumaa famous for its homebrew, kodu�lu (?, 'sahti' in Finnish)
Is it for sold legally?
--
/C