Heavy US Military Deployments Suggest Iraq Invasion Certain
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100,000 US Troops Already In Theater --
150,000 More Ready To Ship Out
One Foot Off the Cliff
Deployments May Be Too Far Advanced to Stop Iraqi Invasion --
250,000 U.S. Troops Either Already There or Ready to Go
Possible Battle Strategy: Easy Military Victory
That May Lead to a Global Uprising
By Michael C. Ruppert
8-21-2
(FTW) -- It may be too late for President George W. Bush to change
his mind on the invasion of Iraq. An analysis of troop deployments in the
region shows that the U.S. already has well over 100,000 military personnel
in as many as 11 countries around Iraq [see map]. Additional analysis shows
that another 100,000 or more crack assault and support personnel have just
completed a major training exercise for a hypothetical conflict that bears a
strong resemblance to Iraq. These troops can be ready to fight in the region
on 96-hour notice. "Stealth" mobilizations of Reserve and National Guard
units, begun after Sept. 11, also indicate that as many as another 150,000
military personnel can be deployed within days or weeks of an initial
surprise attack.
News reports from other sources confirm the following report by the
Asia Times on Aug. 19. "Since March 12,000 troops have been added to Kuwait
(8,000) and Qatar (4,000) and 5,000 Brits to Oman, bringing the April/May
total to 62,000. In late June, the Turkish foreign ministry reported heavy
air traffic of U.S. military transport planes aimed at increasing the number
of U.S. troops in Southern Turkey from 7,000 to 25,000 by the end of July.
Also in June, a contingent of 1,700 British Royal Marines were re-deployed
from Afghanistan to Kuwait and a 250-man, highly specialized German NBC
(nuclear-biological-chemical) warfare battalion equipped with "Fuchs" (fox)
armored vehicles has been in Kuwait since early this year.
"An additional 2,400 U.S. troops are deployed in Jordan and,
according to the Jordanian news agency Petra, are being reinforced by
another 4,000 arriving since Aug. 12 at Aqaba for joint exercises with the
Jordanian Army. Already, 1,800 U.S. troops (mostly Special Forces) are
inside Iraq, at least since the end of March and, in fact, units there were
visited two months ago by CIA director George Tenet during a side trip from
Israel and Palestine. Between another 2,000 and 3,000 U.S. troops are in
semi-permanent deployment in the Negev and Sinai deserts in accordance with
old international agreements. On Aug, 9, the Turkish daily Hurriyet reported
that 5,000 Turkish troops had entered northern Iraq and taken over the
Bamerni airbase north of Mosul. These numbers add up to about 105,000 U.S.
and allied troops on bases surrounding and inside Iraq."
All told, including foreign troops, there are potentially 400,000
military personnel that are either in the theater of operations, ready to
go, or deployable on very short notice. There are many other units that have
gone into stealth mode and cannot be located. These advance deployments
indicate that the Bush Administration likely committed itself to the
invasion many months ago.
One military expert thinks that the invasion of Iraq and the
overthrow of Saddam Hussein will be a cakewalk. But, as is shown by recent
outcries from around the civilized world, the political and economic price
might spell the end of U.S world leadership and a particularly nasty
economic retaliation against a fragile U.S. economy. As one example Iran,
now totally surrounded by U.S.-led forces, announced on Aug. 20 that it was
considering dropping the dollar as its currency for oil pricing. If the
world follows suit, it will spell the end of dollar hegemony and all that it
means to the U.S. economy. On Aug. 20, the Financial Times reported that
wealthy Saudi investors had withdrawn as much as $200 billion from U.S.
banks.
THE DOOR KICKERS
"Millennium 2002," billed as one of the largest war gaming exercises
in recent history, took place in and around California's Ft. Irwin from July
24 through Aug. 9. Although the classified war scenario was ostensibly a
look at a potential conflict in the year 2007, the way the exercises were
conducted, right down to maps displayed on the Ft. Irwin website, looked
remarkably similar to a mock invasion of Iraq. Indeed one of the maps used
and displayed on the website, when enlarged, proved to be of the Az Zubayr
prison outside of Basra, Iraq.
An estimated 100,000-plus military personnel from all services, some
operating from aircraft carriers such as the Constellation and surrounding
Marine, Navy, Air Force and Army installations supported the mock battle.
Units on the ground consisted of approximately 13,500 crack Army mechanized
infantry, armor, artillery, airborne and Special Operations Command
personnel including SEALs, who fought a simulated war in desert camouflage
uniforms in searing desert heat. The geographic location of the support
bases from which air strikes and resupply missions were flown in California,
Arizona, Nevada and elsewhere correspond roughly in geographic distance to
the actual positioning of military installations throughout the Middle East
that would be used to support a U.S. invasion of Iraq.
That means America's premier units are acclimatized and have tested
all of their equipment, especially the new Stryker Infantry Assault Vehicle,
before the invasion and have completed an actual dry run. Recent operational
reports, as reported in the New York Times on Aug. 18, state that active
duty combat units could be "airlifted and ready for action in 96 hours."
THE HIDDEN MOBILIZATION OF THE RESERVES
An analysis of Reserve and National Guard call-ups since 9-11 shows
that preparations for an Iraqi invasion have been underway possibly for as
long as ten months by means of so-called "stealth deployments." Although
Defense Department announcements have recently indicated a drop in the total
number of reserves mobilized, it is important to note that cutbacks are from
"military operational specialties" that are not critical to Iraqi combat
operations. It's a ruse.
Below is a list of the units identified as having taken part in
Millennium 2002, and the Reserve and National Guard units that are likely to
participate in the conflict. In conjunction with the number of bases and
military deployments already positioned in the Persian Gulf region [see
map], it is probable that as many as 250,000 U.S. military personnel are
already in the region or are trained, equipped and committed to the invasion
of Iraq. This invasion will in all likelihood happen in mid- to
late-September and barring miraculous political intercession, certainly
before the November elections.
The Bush Administration already has one foot off of the cliff.
Although it might be possible to call back the dogs of war, the dogs will be
very unhappy if they have to come home without eating. And President Bush
will be an impotent political liability.
Army regular GROUND UNITS PARTICIPATING IN MILLENNIUM 2002
82nd Airborne Division
101st Air Mobile Division
Special Operations Command, JFK Special Warfare Center
- 160th Special Operations Aviation Regiment
- U.S. Army Special Forces
- 75th Ranger Regiment
- U.S. Army Civil Affairs and Psychological Operations Command
U.S. Army III Corps (Armor, Ft. Hood)
- 1st Air Cavalry, Heavy Armored
- 21st Cavalry Brigade
- 31st Air Defense Artillery Brigade
- 13th COSCOM Logistics and Support
- 3rd Armored Cavalry Regiment
- 4th Infantry Division
- 3rd Signal Bde.
- III Armor Corps Artillery
3rd Brigade/ 2nd Infantry Division (Stryker Assault Teams, Ft.
Lewis)
The total number of estimated personnel in these assault forces and
their support units is approximately 100,000.
Other military elements from all over the country deployed and
tested new high-tech battlefield systems and communications equipment.
Confirmed reports indicate that microwave weapons will be deployed during
the invasion.
This number does not include support and transport units from other
services, the aircraft carrier Constellation as reported by
Globalsecurity.org, or air support missions. It is estimated that three
additional carrier battle groups will participate in the invasion. Increased
air operations activity were confirmed at bases in California, Arizona and
Nevada. This conforms with Millennium 2002's self-reporting on the Ft. Irwin
website at http://www.irwin.army.mil.
RESERVE AND NATIONAL GUARD MOBILIZATIONS
Listed below are the Reserve and National Guard combat and support
units likely to be used in an Iraqi invasion that have been mobilized since
9-11. These mobilized personnel are for the most part experienced veterans.
Various numbers of personnel have been activated from each of these units
and they likely represent a core cadre, which in the event of a full
mobilization could have the complete units ready for combat in a short
period of time. All data is current as of Aug. 7.
AIR FORCE
- 37 Airlift Wings (7,493 personnel)
- 41 Fighter Wings (9,439 personnel)
- 23 Refueling Wings (4,318)
- 3 Rescue Group Wings (401 personnel)
- 2 Bomb Wings (B1B) (218 personnel)
NAVY
- SEAL Teams 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 8 (52 personnel)
- Special Boat Squadron -- Team 1 (18 personnel)
- Naval Support Activity, Bahrain (53 personnel)
- Inshore Boat Units (89 personnel)
- Inshore Undersea Warfare Units (113 personnel)
- Assault Craft Units (74 personnel)
- 4th Marine Division Support (105 personnel)
MARINE CORPS
- 23rd Regiment/4th Marine Division (976 personnel)
- 25th Regiment/4th Marine Division (1,003 personnel)
- 4th Marine Division (49 personnel, most likely headquarters
staff)
ARMY
- 20th Special Forces Group (941 personnel)
- 19th Special Forces Group (711 personnel, plus an undetermined
additional number announced in a call-up on Aug. 20)
- 131st Armored Regiment -- Alabama (209 personnel)
- 180th Field Artillery -- Arizona (125 personnel)
- OpFor (Opposing Force), 11th Armored Cavalry -- California (125
personnel)
- 123rd Armor -- Kentucky (159 personnel)
- 110th Field Artillery/29th Division -- Maryland (331 personnel)
- 104th Armored Regiment -- Pennsylvania (304 personnel)
- 103rd Armored Regiment -- Pennsylvania (541 personnel)
- 769th Engineer Battalion -- Louisiana (515 personnel)
- 201st Engineer Battalion -- Kentucky (300 personnel)
- 876th Engineer Battalion -- Pennsylvania (223 personnel)
- 246th Field Artillery -- Virginia (165 personnel)
- 112th Armor -- Texas (629 personnel)
- 145th Field Artillery -- Vermont (206 personnel)
- 1st Battalion/213th Air Defense Artillery -- Pennsylvania (201
personnel)
Total for these call-ups: 29,571 personnel.
There has also been a heavy call-up of naval reserve units from the
construction battalions and beach units, as well as 31 separate medical
units from all services involving 602 personnel.
HOW THE INVASION WILL OCCUR
Retired Army Special Forces Master Sgt. Stan Goff, who taught
military science at West Point, thinks the invasion and overthrow of Saddam
Hussein will be easily accomplished. Iraqi military power is a shadow of
what it was in 1991.
Goff wrote:
"If they go, Seal Team 6 will go too, along with the Army's
door-busters. They'll hit key communications, command and control targets in
the city, as the 75th conducts two to three airfield seizures, whereupon
they pour in conventionals onto the airheads and push out the perimeters.
The set up folks like the 101 (a heliborne outfit), will begin coordinated
attacks on light targets, and strongpoint lines of communication. Armor
will crawl overland for eventual link-up, after the bombers make them a
road. The Marines will probably forego beach assaults, with maybe one or two
exceptions, and they'll be used to open up non-existent defenses, then pull
glorified guard duty for a year at a time. Expect massive air, with massive
civilian casualties, as prep. The hi-tech weapons are only toys.
"This will be a walk-through if it happens. The Iraqi forces are not
only technologically under-gunned, they are poorly trained and unmotivated,
and their doctrine is an anachronism.
"War-gaming here: If I were defending the place, I would stand down
the conventionals, let them blend back into the population, and train up a
thousand two-man sniper teams, and deploy them like a "go" game throughout
the urban areas. Then arm the masses with light weapons and grenades.
Everywhere anyone goes, they stand to be triangulated: single shots, low
signature, hard to acquire a target. Single-casualty incidents and a lot of
bad nerves. That's a morale buster that provokes over-reaction, which in
turn provokes popular hatred. Slow boil escalation, with the invader tied t
o expensive fixed installations, where he loses the battlefield initiative.
I would decentralize the command structure, and issue broad strategic
guidance every month or so through totally non-tech communication. About a
year of that and you can spell quagmire with a capital "Q." There would be
no way to ever regain the initiative. But Saddam can't do that.
"There are four Arabs I would not want to be right now: King Fahd,
Prince Abdullah, Yasser Arafat, or Hosni Mubarak. All are perceived as U.S.
flunkies, and that's not a great thing right now."
It is foreseeable that Saddam Hussein's bluster, ego and command
style will not permit him to do anything but take the field for a short time
and then either be killed or take flight like so many other petty tyrants of
recent history. The difference with Saddam is that much of the world might
willingly receive him. The nations of Indonesia and Malaysia with the
largest Muslim populations in the world are distinct possibilities.
Only a few have seen the potential and horrible repercussions of a
unilateral U.S. invasion of Iraq. As the reality of the Hubbert curve and
the end of the age of oil start to become unavoidable realities, desperation
moves that risk Armageddon and global holocausts of both the military and
economic variety will, and must, eventually become commonplace.
It appears as if the cowboys in the White House have made their
decision and all of us wait, with baited breath, to see for whom the bells
toll.
POSTSCRIPT: As we go to press we note the publication of a large
story in the Washington Post headlined, "Al Q'aeda Presence in Iraq
reported." The story by Bradley Graham opened with the lead, "At least a
handful of ranking members of al Qaeda have taken refuge in Iraq, U.S.
intelligence officials said yesterday. Their presence would complicate U.S.
efforts against the terrorist network's leadership but also would give the
Bush administration another rationale for possible military action against
the Iraqi government."
[Special thanks to an anonymous Vietnam-era veteran of the 10th
Special Forces Group for his invaluable research assistance.]