@@ Neo-crazies & Iranian Nukes @@
Arash
November 29, 2003
Iran: Nukes déją vu
Dr. James Gordon Prather
Nuclear Weapons Physicist
gpra...@worldnetdaily.com
Did you sense last Thanksgiving that we were on the verge of war? Did you
sense this Thanksgiving that we may be on the verge of another?
Last year, we had sought a United Nations Security Council resolution that
would give us the authority to invade Iraq if U.N. inspectors discovered
that Saddam Hussein was not in compliance with his disarmament agreements.
Well - neo-crazies to the contrary - UNSC Resolution 1441 didn't give us the
authority to invade Iraq.
Even for nukes and the makings thereof, UNSCR-1441 simply directed
International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors to search for prohibited items
and activities and to report immediately "any interference by Iraq with
inspection activities, as well as any failure by Iraq to comply with its
disarmament obligations, including its obligations regarding inspections
under this resolution."
What was to happen if Director General ElBaradei did find "evidence" that
Saddam was not complying? Well, the Security Council was to convene
immediately upon receipt of his report "in order to consider the situation
and the need for full compliance with all of the relevant Council
resolutions in order to secure international peace and security."
The Security Council could have authorized member states to use military
force to secure international peace and security.
But, ElBaradei reported to the Security Council on March 17, 2003, that he
could find in Iraq "no evidence of ongoing prohibited nuclear or
nuclear-related activities."
The U.N. chem-bio weapons inspectors made a similar report.
Rats! No chance for a U.N.-authorized invasion and occupation of Iraq. In
fact, the reports of the U.N. inspectors could easily justify the removal of
the U.N. sanctions that had been imposed on Iraq in 1991.
So, President Bush shifted to Plan B. He told Congress that Plan A -
"diplomacy" - had failed. But Iraq posed "a continuing threat to the
national security of the United States" by "continuing to possess and
develop a significant chemical and biological weapons capability, actively
seeking a nuclear weapons capability, and supporting and harboring terrorist
organizations."
Well, it's eight months later, and everything has gone according to plan in
Iraq.
But what about Iran?
This year, we first sought a U.N. International Atomic Energy Agency
resolution which would refer to the Security Council Iran's failures to meet
its obligations under its Safeguards Agreement. Once referred, we would have
then sought a Security Council resolution that would give us the authority
to invade Iran if U.N. inspectors discovered additional failures.
ElBaradei has told the IAEA Board of Governors that although Iran has failed
to meet its obligations under its Safeguards Agreement, he has not uncovered
any "prohibited" activities.
The Israelis loudly dispute ElBaradei's conclusions and have threatened to
destroy everything in Iran that looks suspicious to them.
The most drastic action the IAEA can take is to refer the matter to the
Security Council, which can authorize really drastic actions, including
military force.
The neo-crazies claim the IAEA resolution, just passed, effectively
accomplishes their objective, warning Iran that further violations could
lead to Security Council sanctions.
Well, the words "violation" and "sanction" don't appear anywhere in it, and
there is no mention of the Security Council.
The resolution "notes with deep concern that Iran has failed in a number of
instances over an extended period of time to meet its obligations under its
Safeguards Agreement with respect to the reporting of nuclear material, and
its processing and use, as well as the declaration of facilities where such
material has been processed and stored."
The resolution does warn that "should any further serious Iranian failures
come to light, the Board of Governors would meet immediately to consider, in
the light of the circumstances and of advice from the director general, all
options at its disposal, in accordance with the IAEA Statute and Iran's
Safeguards Agreement."
Well, if the board does refer the issue to the Security Council, Iran will
follow the example of North Korea and withdraw from the NPT. As soon as the
U.N. inspectors are out of the country, the neo-crazies will attack.
But, that's not likely to happen.
You see, this IAEA resolution gives Director General ElBaradei a chance to
repair some of the damage done by the neo-crazies and their media sycophants
to the IAEA Safeguards regime in the last year. ElBaradei was given the dual
role of chief inspector and chief adviser, precisely so that what happened
to Iraq in March won't happen again to Iran next February.
Unless the neo-crazies are really crazy, it won't.
* Physicist James Gordon Prather has served as a policy implementing
official for national security-related technical matters in the Federal
Energy Agency, the Energy Research and Development Administration, the
Department of Energy, the Office of the Secretary of Defense and the
Department of the Army. Dr. Prather also served as legislative assistant for
national security affairs to U.S. Sen. Henry Bellmon, R-Okla. -- ranking
member of the Senate Budget Committee and member of the Senate Energy
Committee and Appropriations Committee. Dr. Prather had earlier worked as a
nuclear weapons physicist at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory in
California and Sandia National Laboratory in New Mexico.
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