@@ After works on Azaris, Brenda is now working on Nukes @@
Arash
June 12, 2003
Iran's nuclear program: The Russians may be ready to help
By Brenda Shaffer (Known Mossad agent)
Iran's nuclear energy program will be at the top of the agenda when the
International Atomic Energy Agency's board of governors meets in Vienna next
week. This time, Russia may be more inclined to cooperate with efforts to
prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons.
For more than a decade, Washington has unsuccessfully worked to sway Moscow
from its cooperation with Iran in areas that can help Tehran develop weapons
of mass destruction. Recent revelations by Iranian leaders and officials,
however, are prompting the Russians to reassess their cooperation with Iran.
President Mohammed Khatami of Iran recently disclosed that Iran has been
mining uranium and pursuing technologies to reprocess the spent nuclear fuel
from its reactor in Bushehr. "We need to com- plete the circle from
discovering uranium to man- aging remaining spent fuel," he said.
Iran has also declared that the spent fuel, which can be used to make
nuclear weapons, may not be returned to Russia. Tehran further confirmed the
existence of an uranium enrichment facility and plutonium production plant,
making fuel supply from Russia eventually unnecessary. The announcements
suggest that Tehran is coming close to being able to make nuclear weapons,
with or without outside help. These disclosures contradict Iranian
commitments to Russia, as well as commitments made by Moscow to Washington.
A decision by Tehran actually to construct nuclear weapons, however, would
be influenced by several strategic considerations. The prospect of losing
Russia's support at the International Atomic Energy Agency and other
international organizations, for example, could still have a major impact on
Iran's next moves. There are also hundreds of Russian scientists and
engineers in Iran whose withdrawal could seriously hamper the civil nuclear
program - and who are in a position to know what equipment or technology
Iran still lacks.
Recent statements by President Vladimir Putin of Russia and the head of
Russia's Ministry of Atomic Energy, Alexander Rumyantsev, indicate that
Moscow is starting to view Iran's nuclear program with concern. "While
Russia is helping Iran to build its nuclear power plant, it is not being
informed by Iran of all the other projects that are currently under way,"
Rumyantsev said.
Now Moscow is urging Tehran to sign the additional inspections protocol
advocated by the IAEA, and it recently announced a decision to delay the
signing of an agreement with Iran on spent nuclear fuel. Several articles in
the Iranian press also suggest that Russia is beginning to give Iranian
officials the cold shoulder on nuclear cooperation.
All this indicates that Russia is re-examining its nuclear cooperation with
Iran. It may be ready now, instead, to cooperate with Washington.
Departing from previous lines of disagreement with the Putin announced
following the summit meeting in St. Petersburg, that "The positions of
Russia and the US on the issue are much closer than they seem." Putin has
also taken a number of steps as president to take control of the various
foreign policy and national security apparatuses that had a free reign in a
number of fields during the Yeltsin era. Most important, Putin sacked
Yevgeni Adamov in 2001 as head of the Russian Ministry of Atomic Energy and
replaced him with own appointment. In his dealings with the United States,
Putin bargains hard, but has generally shown that he know how to implement
the agreements he makes.
In order to succeed, the United States should work quietly with Putin and
not give the impression that it is pressuring Moscow. Beyond demanding that
Tehran sign the IAEA inspections protocol, Moscow must insist that Iran
return the spent reactor fuel to Russia in accordance with its previous
commitment. Russia should also join international efforts to demand that
Iran halt its uranium enrichment and plutonium production programs, which
are clearly beyond the requirements of a civil nuclear program, and
condition further cooperation on this. Finally, Russia should encourage its
scientists and engineers in Iran to provide information on their projects.
Iran is at a critical juncture in its nuclear program, and the loss of
Russian backing will influence its next steps as well as the actions of
European states in international forums. We need Russia at this crucial
stage.
The writer is research director of the Caspian Studies Program at Harvard's
John F. Kennedy School of Government.
http://www.iht.com/articles/99245.html