@@ AIPAC spy affair concerns Iran more than Israel @@
Arash
September 9, 2004
The AIPAC spy affair concerns Iran more than Israel
by Helena Cobban
Steven Rosen, the longstanding head of the "research department" of the
powerful AIPAC lobbying organization, prefers to operate in the shadows. The
Washington Post reported some years ago that Rosen wrote in an internal
memo: "A lobby is like a night flower. It thrives in the dark and dies in
the sun."
Now, with the unfolding of the 'Larry Franklin' spy scandal, the bright
light of a lot of unwelcome publicity is being shone onto AIPAC and its
operations. And especially onto Rosen: he is one of two AIPAC staffers who
have been interviewed by the FBI in connection with the Franklin
allegations. And on August 27, the FBI also reportedly searched Rosen's
office at AIPAC and made a copy of his computer's hard drive.
Many questions surround this still-unfolding spy scandal. The FBI were
reportedly pursing a lengthy investigation into possible misdeeds by Rosen
and another AIPAC suspect, and were surveilling a lunch those two men were
holding with an Israeli diplomat, when Franklin came to join the lunch
party. It seems that was the first time Franklin entered the FBI's field of
view.
So far, we have heard allegations that Franklin might have either "spied for
Israel", or (a lesser charge) "handled classified documents insecurely." But
we have not yet heard what the investigation of Rosen and colleague was all
about.
Another question hanging over the story concerns the August 27 "leak" to the
media about the FBI's investigation of Franklin. That leak was made to CBS
News's Lesley Stahl. It embarrassed Franklin, and signaled that he might
soon be charged with a crime. Even more importantly, however, it gave
everyone else being targeted by the FBI investigation a clear warning that
they were now under suspicion-- and gave them plenty of time to destroy any
incriminating evidence, and to construct and coordinate "cover stories" for
what they had been doing.
Not surprisingly, FBI officials have since said that their investigation was
seriously hampered by the leak. And since the existence of this
investigation was revealed to the public before rather than after the
November election, it is almost certain that heavy political pressure will
be put on the FBI to be as "discreet" and "forgiving" as possible in the way
it treats AIPAC (and Israel).
The involvement of AIPAC and the Israeli government in Franklin's reported
spying efforts also raises the question of "Why would they bother?" After
all, the Sharon government has superb and easy access to every corner of
U.S. security decision-making! Why would they bother to get involved in a
shady little deal with a relatively low-level person in the Pentagon when
Wolfowitz, Feith, Elliot Abrams, etc are all only too willing to cooperate
with them?
My reading on this question is that this swirl of accusations about Israeli
spying in the U.S. tells us less about Israeli spying efforts than it does
about the existence of some serious disagreements within the Bush
administration on how to deal with Iran.
(Israel, let's face it, is always going to spy as much as it can on
everyone, if the recent revelations in New Zealand, Canada, etc, tell us
anything.)
Regarding the Bush administration people, it is no secret that in the
immediate aftermath of their military victory over Saddam Hussein's army in
April 2003, many ranking members of the administration started talking
openly about the need to bring about a similarly violent "regime change" in
Iran and Syria as their next goal. Over the 17 months since then, however,
more and more people in the U.S. military and the country as a whole have
seen how hard it has been to achieve what they wanted in Iraq, alone, and
how high the costs have been there. Indeed, the mission in Iraq has already
been stretching the U.S. military to near breaking point-while it has also
clearly harmed the U.S.'s effectiveness in fighting against Al Qaeda.
So the desire of the administration as a whole to launch any new military
adventures against Iran or Syria has been much reduced. There is still a
chance of an "Osirak"-style hit-and-run raid against an Iranian target or
targets-and perhaps this might come before the November election? But to set
out to conquer and occupy any more Middle Eastern countries as they did in
Iraq? No. Very few people are pushing for that any more.
AIPAC has certainly been trying to keep the heat up against Iran (and
Syria). So maybe the Steve Rosen/Larry Franklin connection was working on
that.
Meanwhile, the main concern that many Israelis and Jewish Americans have
voiced about the Franklin revelations has had nothing to do with Iran-but
rather, with their fear that this affair will remind the American public of
the strong role that almost exactly this same cast of characters had in
jerking the administration into launching the war on Iraq.
That war has been becoming increasingly unpopular here in the U,S., every
day. The casualty toll of members of the U.S. military killed there has
reached almost 1000. Israelis and Jewish-Americans who are strong friends of
Israel are terrified that Israel and its strong lobbying group here in the
U.S. will be blamed for the disasters in Iraq-and of course, there are a lot
of reasons why they should be blamed. So now is probably a very bad time for
the glare of publicity to be shone onto the activities of AIPAC and its
friends and protégés within the administration.
For more than 20 years now, Steve Rosen has run AIPAC's "research"
department, becoming one of Washington's most feared behind-the-scenes
operators along the way. It would be very interesting if the resentment
against AIPAC-in the FBI, and in some other parts of the government-is now
strong enough to bring a man like Rosen down.
But I still do not believe it will happen. Maybe the most we can expect is
that AIPAC and the other pro-Likud lobbyists will be a bit more discreet in
their activities over the next few months.
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