@@ U.S. may seek Iran's help to stabilize Iraq @@
Arash
October 20, 2005
U.S. May Seek Tehran's Help on Iraq
Officials are debating direct contact with Iran in an effort to defeat insurgents and
stabilize Baghdad's government, Rice tells senators.
By Tyler Marshall
Washington — Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said Wednesday that the Bush
administration was considering opening direct contact with Iran as part of an effort
to gain greater cooperation from neighboring countries in quelling Iraq's insurgency.
"We're considering whether that might be useful", Rice said in testimony before the
Senate Foreign Relations Committee
(http://foreign.senate.gov/hearings/2005/hrg051019a.html). She added that any contact
probably would take place between embassies in Baghdad and would be restricted to the
Iraq issue.
Direct U.S. diplomatic contact with Tehran would be highly controversial within the
Bush administration, which is divided on the issue. U.S. administrations have shunned
Iran since students there stormed the American Embassy in Tehran in 1979 and held
U.S. diplomats hostage for 444 days.
Rice's comments came during the course of a three-hour grilling in which committee
Republicans and Democrats voiced concern about the course of the war and indicated
growing skepticism about the administration's claims of success.
Senators seemed unconvinced when Rice pointed to signs of progress and outlined a
counter-insurgency strategy to secure Iraq while building what she called "truly
national institutions".
At one point, Republican Senator Lincoln Chafee (http://chafee.senate.gov) of Rhode
Island said the United States had yet to accomplish three of five conditions set by
President Bush for ending the U.S. military presence in Iraq: improving security,
rebuilding the infrastructure and gaining more international support for the Iraqi
government.
Two of Bush's goals, returning sovereignty to Iraqis and holding the country's first
national election, have been met.
Rice responded that international support for Iraq was growing and that progress had
been made.
Senator Chafee responded, "Well, we all wish that were true, but we can't kid
ourselves, either".
As one sign of progress, Rice cited "measurably improved" security along one of the
most dangerous roads in the country, the highway that connects Baghdad with its
international airport. According to figures from the U.S. military in Baghdad, no
injuries or deaths had been recorded on that road since July 1. Eleven people died
and 25 were injured on it between March and July.
Committee Chairman Senator Richard G. Lugar (http://lugar.senate.gov) asked Rice to
sketch out the administration's strategy for reaching the point when a significant
reduction in U.S. troop levels might be possible.
"The American people need to more fully understand the basis upon which our troops
are likely to come home", Senator Lugar said.
Rice repeatedly refused to set any deadline for a withdrawal of American forces. At
one point, Senator Paul S. Sarbanes (http://sarbanes.senate.gov) asked whether U.S.
troops might still be in Iraq in 10 years.
"Senator, I don't know how to speculate about what will happen 10 years from now",
Rice said.
Opponents of U.S. contacts with Iran argue that any such relationship would
legitimize the Islamic fundamentalist government and undercut opposition groups.
Others believe engagement would soften Iran's anti-U.S. positions and eventually work
in Washington's favor.
The Bush administration has only indirect contacts with Tehran, such as third-party
contacts through Swiss officials in Geneva, said a senior State Department official
(http://www.state.gov), who declined to be identified because he was not authorized
to speak publicly on the issue.
After its 2001 invasion of Afghanistan, which, like Iraq, borders Iran, the United
States worked with nations in the region to rebuild that country and establish a
functioning government in Kabul. That effort began in late 2001, first involving
Bush's special envoy for Afghanistan, James Dobbins, and later Ambassador Zalmay
Khalilzad. Khalilzad is now the U.S. ambassador to Iraq.
Ambassador James Dobbins
(http://www.rand.org/news/experts/bios/expert_dobbins_james.html), who is now
director of the military Rand Corp. International Security and Defense Policy Center
in Washington, said Rice's comments "demonstrate commendable realism".
"Iraq can't be stabilized without the active cooperation of its neighbors", he said
in a telephone interview.
James Dobbins said Iran, which played a constructive role in helping to stabilize
Afghanistan after the ouster of the Taliban government in 2001, and the United States
had "convergent interests" in Iraq.
Iran, whose enemy Saddam was toppled by the American-led invasion, is eager to see
the new U.S.-sponsored, Shia-majority government survive. "The Iranians are the
second-most important supporters of the government in Baghdad", James Dobbins said.
Rice's comments about Iran came during questioning about administration efforts to
increase support in the region for the new government in Baghdad. Rice indicated that
Saudi Arabia had helped persuade some Sunni factions to support last Saturday's
referendum on a draft constitution.
She also said the administration was exerting diplomatic pressure on Syria to halt a
trail of foreign insurgents that she said passed through Damascus International
Airport and crossed the border into Iraq.
http://fairuse.1accesshost.com/news2/latimes879.html
The RAND History of Nation-Building
By James Dobbins
America’s Role in Nation-Building: From Germany to Iraq (2003)
http://www.rand.org/publications/MR/MR1753
The UN’s Role in Nation-Building: From the Congo to Iraq
http://www.rand.org/publications/MG/MG304
UN Surpasses U.S. on Learning Curve
http://www.rand.org/publications/randreview/issues/spring2005/nation.html
The U.S. and UN Ways of Nation-Building
By James Dobbins (June 2005)
http://www.unausa.org/site/pp.asp?c=fvKRI8MPJpF&b=730613
Strategic Insights (February 2004)
Center for Contemporary Conflict at the Naval Postgraduate School
Review of America's Role in Nation-Building by James Dobbins
http://www.ccc.nps.navy.mil/si/2004/feb/porchRvFeb04.asp
Conversation with James Dobbins (February 2005)
http://globetrotter.berkeley.edu/people5/Dobbins/dobbins-con0.html
Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)
Iraq: Winning the Unwinnable War (January 2005)
By James Dobbins
By losing the trust of the Iraqi people, the Bush administration has already lost the
war. United States should reduce and ultimately eliminate its military presence,
train Iraqis to beat the insurgency on their own, and rally Iran and European allies
to the cause.
http://www.foreignaffairs.org/20050101faessay84102/james-dobbins/iraq-winning-the-unwinnable-war.html
PBS Frontline: truth, war and consquences: what's at stake?: nation-building 101
Conversation with James Dobbins (October 2003)
http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/shows/truth/stake/dobbins.html
* James Dobbins is Director of the International Security and Defense Policy Center
at RAND. He is a former Assistant Secretary of State, served as the Clinton
administration’s special envoy for Somalia, Haiti, Bosnia and Kosovo, and the Bush
administrations first envoy for Afghanistan.