L K Advani Bails out: Sid Harth
bademiyansubhanallah
bademiyansubhanallah
by GVL Narasimha Rao
Media analysis of the 15th Lok Sabha election results has largely been
aimed at forcing certain perceptions that have no empirical evidence.
There have been analyses on how the surge in the Congress’s tally
heralds a nationwide revival of the party. The Congress’s national
vote share has gone up only marginally from 26.5 per cent in 2004 to
28.6 per cent in 2009. Curiously, the vote share of 28.6 per cent
secured by the Congress in 2009 is almost the same as what it got in
1999 (28.3 per cent) when it got its lowest-ever tally of 114 seats in
the general elections.
How could one say that the Congress has revived nationally when its
national vote share has only increased marginally? Further, even as
the party has gained in terms of votes in seven states — Punjab,
Kerala, Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, Bihar and
Uttarakhand — it has lost votes by more than 3 percentage points in a
number of them (such as Orissa. Jharkhand, Maharashtra, Andhra
Pradesh, Jammu and Kashmir and Himachal Pradesh). UP is the only state
where the Congress has shown real signs of revival with the party’s
vote share going up by an impressive 6 per cent.
The other myth doing the rounds is that the Congress has an enhanced
appeal among metropolitan voters due to its forward-looking policies,
as well as the appeal of Prime Minister Manmohan Singh among the
educated middle classes, and the ‘youth appeal’ of Rahul Gandhi among
the young voters. This has no electoral proof. The Congress’s vote
share in metropolitan constituencies has virtually remained the same,
30.7 per cent in 2004 and 30.4 per cent in 2009. Therefore, the
premise that the new generation of urban voters with increased
prosperity and greater opportunities finds the Congress more
attractive and in sync with their aspirations has no basis.
This notion is coloured by the electoral performance of the party in
the cities of Delhi and Mumbai. While the Congress did creditably well
in Delhi, its victory in Mumbai has less to do with the imaginary
enhanced appeal of the party and more to do with the emergence of Raj
Thackeray’s Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) as a spoiler for the BJP-
Shiv Sena combine.
If the Congress’s revival is not the reason for its stupendous success
in the polls, what factors have contributed to its victory? The party
benefited primarily from the decline and division in the vote share of
its opponents. The fall in the vote of the BJP in a number of states;
huge negative swings against regional parties like the Telugu Desam
Party (8 per cent), the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (7
per cent) and the Samajwadi Party (4 per cent); the emergence of new
parties like the Prajarajyam Party in Andhra Pradesh; the rise of the
MNS in Maharashtra and the break-up of the BJP-Biju Janata Dal
alliance in Orissa have all contributed to the Congress’s gains even
as it suffered vote losses. In UP, it secured 21 of the 80 seats, even
though it polled only 18 per cent of the popular vote. What helped the
Congress in UP was the favourable distribution of votes — concentrated
in a few pockets — that helped the party to translate its fewer votes
into seats.
It is a given that the Congress has won this election comprehensively.
The scale of the Congress’s success has astounded everyone, including
party bigwigs. The ‘wave’ in favour of the Congress, however, was
invisible — because there wasn’t any.
It is the failure of the BJP and other parties to hold their own that
caused the BJP’s defeat; not because of a serious challenge from the
Congress. This should be the message for parties like the BJP.
G.V.L. Narasimha Rao is a BJP political analyst.
(This article was first published in Hindustan Times on June 23,
2009.)