PRC: asset bubble?
Albert K. Fung
Retort the average retail stock buyers in the PRC. Every day,
a million Chinese are putting their hard earned, or borrowed,
money into fueling China's stock market. Ironically, the real
estate bubble contributed to the bull stampede.
The government successfully deflated the real estate bubble.
Without any investment outlet, the herd moved to paper assets
and in a big way. Exacerbating the problem, is run-away trade
surplus. Which is adding explosive to the country's liquidity
fire. The government's rather timid rate and reserve measures
haven't work. Thus far the real rate is still in the negative
territory. Which, spells free money. And with the RMB that is
30-40% undervalue. The money press is working over-time.
Printing USD 2 billion, non-stop, daily .... :)
Regards,
Albert K. Fung
Hacienda Escala, Santa Ynez, California, USA.
---
Posted via news://freenews.netfront.net
Complaints to ne...@netfront.net
denouncer
countries' economic method !!!!
value of a country's currency is usually measured by the trade-balance,
but this way is not applicable to such monopolized economy as PRC,
as the import and export are all distorted as all import and export
institutes are state-owned to restrict the import and exports !!!!
don_t...@hotmail.com
> What bubble? .... :)
>
> Retort the average retail stock buyers in the PRC. Every day,
> a million Chinese are putting their hard earned, or borrowed,
> money into fueling China's stock market. Ironically, the real
> estate bubble contributed to the bull stampede.
>
> The government successfully deflated the real estate bubble.
>
> Without any investment outlet, the herd moved to paper assets
> and in a big way. Exacerbating the problem, is run-away trade
> surplus. Which is adding explosive to the country's liquidity
> fire. The government's rather timid rate and reserve measures
> haven't work. Thus far the real rate is still in the negative
> territory. Which, spells free money. And with the RMB that is
> 30-40% undervalue. The money press is working over-time.
>
> Printing USD 2 billion, non-stop, daily .... :)
Those PRC stockholders will one day soon find out that it is paper
they have bought.
> Regards,
>
> Albert K. Fung
> Hacienda Escala, Santa Ynez, California, USA.
> ---
> Posted via news://freenews.netfront.net
> Complaints to n...@netfront.net
ltl...@hotmail.com
> What bubble? .... :)
>
> Retort the average retail stock buyers in the PRC. Every day,
> a million Chinese are putting their hard earned, or borrowed,
> money into fueling China's stock market. Ironically, the real
> estate bubble contributed to the bull stampede.
>
> The government successfully deflated the real estate bubble.
>
> Without any investment outlet, the herd moved to paper assets
> and in a big way. Exacerbating the problem, is run-away trade
> surplus. Which is adding explosive to the country's liquidity
> fire. The government's rather timid rate and reserve measures
> haven't work. Thus far the real rate is still in the negative
> territory. Which, spells free money. And with the RMB that is
> 30-40% undervalue. The money press is working over-time.
>
> Printing USD 2 billion, non-stop, daily .... :)
Not necessarily so.
>From the grapewine, the other day a Morgan Statley branch wanted to
buy several tens of millions of RMB.Not exactly a large sum. The bank
refused to sell. Mongran Stanley had to go through some channel to
get
the money.
>
> Regards,
>
> Albert K. Fung
> Hacienda Escala, Santa Ynez, California, USA.
> ---
> Posted via news://freenews.netfront.net
> Complaints to n...@netfront.net
Albert K. Fung
>
> Retort the average retail stock buyers in the PRC. Every day,
> a million Chinese are putting their hard earned, or borrowed,
> money into fueling China's stock market. Ironically, the real
> estate bubble contributed to the bull stampede.
>
> The government successfully deflated the real estate bubble.
>
> Without any investment outlet, the herd moved to paper assets
> and in a big way. Exacerbating the problem, is run-away trade
> surplus. Which is adding explosive to the country's liquidity
> fire. The government's rather timid rate and reserve measures
> haven't work. Thus far the real rate is still in the negative
> territory. Which, spells free money. And with the RMB that is
> 30-40% undervalue. The money press is working over-time.
>
> Printing USD 2 billion, non-stop, daily .... :)
ltlee:
> Not necessarily so.
>
> From the grapewine, the other day a Morgan Statley branch wanted to
> buy several tens of millions of RMB.Not exactly a large sum. The bank
> refused to sell. Mongran Stanley had to go through some channel to
> get the money.
That, is lunch money .... :)
And, shouldn't come as a shock that nobody wants to trade USD
for RMB. When the peg is finally lifted, one can look forward
to 30-40% more USD, if not more. Morgan Stanly will have much
better luck, after the Olympic Games.
But, they'll have to offer 40% more USD .... :)
Regards,
Albert K. Fung
Hacienda Escala, Santa Ynez, California, USA.
---
Posted via news://freenews.netfront.net
Complaints to ne...@netfront.net
ltl...@hotmail.com
> > What bubble? .... :)
>
> > Retort the average retail stock buyers in the PRC. Every day,
> > a million Chinese are putting their hard earned, or borrowed,
> > money into fueling China's stock market. Ironically, the real
> > estate bubble contributed to the bull stampede.
>
> > The government successfully deflated the real estate bubble.
>
> > Without any investment outlet, the herd moved to paper assets
> > and in a big way. Exacerbating the problem, is run-away trade
> > surplus. Which is adding explosive to the country's liquidity
> > fire. The government's rather timid rate and reserve measures
> > haven't work. Thus far the real rate is still in the negative
> > territory. Which, spells free money. And with the RMB that is
> > 30-40% undervalue. The money press is working over-time.
>
> > Printing USD 2 billion, non-stop, daily .... :)
>
> ltlee:
>
> > Not necessarily so.
>
> > From the grapewine, the other day a Morgan Statley branch wanted to
> > buy several tens of millions of RMB.Not exactly a large sum. The bank
> > refused to sell. Mongran Stanley had to go through some channel to
> > get the money.
>
> That, is lunch money .... :)
>
> And, shouldn't come as a shock that nobody wants to trade USD
> for RMB.
Well, that is the point.
If the exchange does not go through, the money stock won't increase.
At least not at the rate of 2 billion USD a day.
> When the peg is finally lifted, one can look forward
> to 30-40% more USD, if not more. Morgan Stanly will have much
> better luck, after the Olympic Games.
>
> But, they'll have to offer 40% more USD .... :)
>
> Regards,
>
> Albert K. Fung
> Hacienda Escala, Santa Ynez, California, USA.
> ---
> Posted via news://freenews.netfront.net
> Complaints to n...@netfront.net- Hide quoted text -
>
> - Show quoted text -
Albert K. Fung
> for RMB.
ltlee:
> Well, that is the point.
> If the exchange does not go through, the money stock won't increase.
> At least not at the rate of 2 billion USD a day.
Morgan Stanly ....
Should've done it like the average Chinese on the street - to
borrow those RMB's from a Chinese bank. Liquidity, is killing
them big time, and are actually paying people interest to get
them off their back.
The real interest rate, after all, is negative .... :)
Regards,
Albert K. Fung
Hacienda Escala, Santa Ynez, California, USA.
---
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Ira IRa IRA Humperdink MD
like dog shit, and think like a dog !
> > Complaints to n...@netfront.net
>
> ---
> Posted via news://freenews.netfront.net
PaPaPeng
For once Alfie has posted something I can agree with.
Far East stock markets are in essence casinos where the stock price
has little relationship with the actual value of the business behind
the stock. The ups and downs of the stock market in Hongkong for
example is notorious for following the antics of their
multimillionaires (sick, not sick, flipped this and that property) and
any little tabloid rumor is enough to move the market. The stock
markets in Singapore, Kuala Lumpur, Bangkok and elsewhere isn't much
different. The stockbrokers are equally notorious for spreading if
not starting these rumors as they stand to make money (commissions) so
long as there is movement. It is also easy for stock brokers to latch
their own accounts to the trading of their key accounts who were known
to make good calls.
On the mainland being able to buy and sell stocks is relatively new.
There is a lot of liquidity, that is cash with nowhere to invest it as
banks pay very little in interest. Property is very expensive and in
any case hard to come by. There is not much else that is of value
that one can invest in.
The stock market looks like a good place to get better returns.
Gambling is in the blood of many Chinese anyway. Just visit the HK
Turf Club to to see the betting. I doubt if any stockholder can use
his stocks as collateral to buy more stocks on margin. If the stock
market bursts a lot of people will lose their shirts. But I think
they will only lose the real cash they have, not borrowed money or
money that is tied to their other property such as a house. In that
scenario nothing is lost in the real economy, only a redistribution of
real cash to those who are smarter than the crowd. That is property
prices will not be affected nor the operations of the majority of
ordinary businesses.
denouncer
everyone in the world had the recognition of PRC's refusing to sell USD,
but not to sell RMB for USD.
lechergod
On May 14, 8:50 pm, denouncer <moc...@mock.net> wrote:
> it is likely to be a mixing-up dragging-away since don_tric...@hotmail.com.
> everyone in the world had the recognition of PRC's refusing to sell USD,
> but not to sell RMB for USD.
>
>
>
>
>
> Albert K. Fung wrote:
> >>And, shouldn't come as a shock that nobody wants to trade USD
> >>for RMB.
>
> > ltlee:
>
> >>Well, that is the point.
> >>If the exchange does not go through, the money stock won't increase.
> >>At least not at the rate of 2 billion USD a day.
>
> > Morgan Stanly ....
>
> > Should've done it like the average Chinese on the street - to
> > borrow those RMB's from a Chinese bank. Liquidity, is killing
> > them big time, and are actually paying people interest to get
> > them off their back.
>
> > The real interest rate, after all, is negative .... :)
>
> > Regards,
>
> > Albert K. Fung
> > Hacienda Escala, Santa Ynez, California, USA.
> > ---
>
> > Posted via news://freenews.netfront.net
>
> > Complaints to n...@netfront.net
>
> ---
> Posted via news://freenews.netfront.net
demor...@aol.com
> The stock market looks like a good place to get better returns.
> Gambling is in the blood of many Chinese anyway. Just visit the HK
> Turf Club to to see the betting. I doubt if any stockholder can use
> his stocks as collateral to buy more stocks on margin. If the stock
> market bursts a lot of people will lose their shirts. But I think
> they will only lose the real cash they have, not borrowed money or
> money that is tied to their other property such as a house. In that
> scenario nothing is lost in the real economy, only a redistribution of
> real cash to those who are smarter than the crowd.
In this case the winners are not the smarter ones. They are the ones
who are connected to the CCP and know in advance when the government
is going to take action. The CCP princelings are going to clean up on
the ordinary Chinese when the bubble pops.
----------
"The Cracking of China has begun."
-- Demorising, February 27, 2007
http://groups.google.com/group/soc.culture.china/msg/b4e15245e26ad2ae
----------
"The Chinese economic bubble will collapse as all bubbles before it
have; when something seems too good to be true ... well, it isn't
true ... Pencil in 2007
for the collapse, but it could come sooner."
-- Demorising, July 27, 2002
http://groups.google.com/group/soc.culture.china/msg/210beb3637e17977
> That is property
> prices will not be affected nor the operations of the majority of
> ordinary businesses.- Hide quoted text -
PaPaPeng
>In this case the winners are not the smarter ones. They are the ones
>who are connected to the CCP and know in advance when the government
>is going to take action. The CCP princelings are going to clean up on
>the ordinary Chinese when the bubble pops.
As the saying goes "That's how the cookie crumbles". Everyone is
going in with eyes wide open and have no one to blame but themselves.
One more example of Chinese gambling mania. Go to the casinos in
Macau or anywhere else. Also watch how they play mahjong. Their
innermost personalities come to the surface. Its scary. As for CCP
princelings they face the same risks as everyone else. The trick here
is like musical chairs. When the music stops someone is going to be
caught without a place to sit. Its all a matter of luck.
rst0wxyz
Maybe we should go to China and open a few casinos, I mean ah, ah...
investment companies.
rest0wxyz
I don't think there be such a moron in the world,
surely this shows how a soul-sold communists' dog's task to tell lies
!!!!!!!
PaPaPeng wrote:
---
rest0wxyz
monopolization-communism-system.
even such a communists' dog (except foreign economic invaders) is not
approved to open an investment company !!!!!!
rst0wxyz wrote:
---
Alex
My advice to China is to ban short selling now. Any time the bubble
will burst. So no short selling, speculators will keep away.
Also reduce the amount of loan for most things. Some Chinese are
borrowing from banks to play shares. So with less borrowing, they can
only play less shares.
Ira IRa IRA Humperdink MD
change and show us that you can !
> ---
> Posted via news://freenews.netfront.net
> Complaints to ne...@netfront.net
demor...@aol.com
> On May 14, 4:08 pm, PaPaPeng <PaPaP...@yahoo.com> wrote:
>
> > The stock market looks like a good place to get better returns.
> > Gambling is in the blood of many Chinese anyway. Just visit the HK
> > Turf Club to to see the betting. I doubt if any stockholder can use
> > his stocks as collateral to buy more stocks on margin. If the stock
> > market bursts a lot of people will lose their shirts. But I think
> > they will only lose the real cash they have, not borrowed money or
> > money that is tied to their other property such as a house. In that
> > scenario nothing is lost in the real economy, only a redistribution of
> > real cash to those who are smarter than the crowd.
>
> In this case the winners are not the smarter ones. They are the ones
> who are connected to the CCP and know in advance when the government
> is going to take action. The CCP princelings are going to clean up on
> the ordinary Chinese when the bubble pops.
http://business.iafrica.com/worldnews/940888.htm
Government in the dogbox
Further angering investors was the government's handling of the tax
hike announcement.
The finance ministry released a statement overnight Tuesday last week
ahead of an immediate stamp duty hike at the start of trading on
Wednesday.
In China, the government often releases market-sensitive information
over the weekend to give investors time to digest the latest change
and cushion any potential impact on the market.
Three influential state-run newspapers also only a week earlier had
cited officials from both the finance ministry and the tax
administration as denying any such move was on the cards.
"The news about the increase of stamp duty came out stealthily," said
a post on online stock investment community Guba.com.cn.