El Chino
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REVIEW OF THE DECADE 2000-2010 FOR VIETNAM
This decade is in ElChino Boatmen’s Conscience’s estimation a
transforming decade for Vietnam. Transformation is a quasi
irreversible process that required many objective conditions
theretofore not available to materialize. The first objective
condition which appeared was the collapse of the Soviet Union
imposing on the VCP a choice of options for survival. One way favored
by the Cong An was the North Korean way of complete isolation of the
population and militarization of the Regime. Famine and malnutrition
will happen but the regime will still be protected by its military and
police organizations. But the choice of the VCP was to get out of
the impasse of Poverty and lack of Political Choice and of having to
depend on one superpower for survival by adopting a Free market
Economy. This choice was not instantaneous but was a process of
struggle between the Conservative Element of the VCP that remained to
be identified and the Doimoi elements whose most prominent examples
were the late PM Vo Van KIet, the retired PM Phan Van Khai and the
present PM Nguyen Tan Dung. It is not by accident that they were all
Vietkong from South Vietnam negating the myth of the Old
Vietzankonghoa that the North Vietnamese Communists had stolen the
Victory from the Vietkong. While in the SRVN, the secretary of the
VCP and the Head of State outranked the Prime Minister post in Party
Hierarchy, the PM is the real CEO of Vietnam Economy
While the application of Vietnam into WTO was the reluctant choice of
the VCP, her admission to WTO was decided almost exclusively by the
USA after a Roadmap spanning over several years was followed by
Vietnam and evaluated by other members of the WTO with the USA having
the last word (Quye^`n Bo’p Za’I !!). This milestone was achieved
in 2007 leading to the election of Vietnam as non permanent member of
the United Nation for 2008-2009 and as President of Asean for 2010.
Economically this Doimoi choice had doubled the GDP per capita of
Vietnamese from 450 USD to 1,000 USD in exchange rate dollar or 2,800
USD in purchasing power (CIA fig for 2008)within a decade. Last Year
Vietnam exported 125 Billions dollars worth of goods to the World
i.e., 40% more that her GDP. Vietnam now is a World class exporter of
shoes (an astounding 2 billions, with a B, pairs of shoes), rice,
pepper, cashew nuts, fish and shrimp etc…Foreign Tourism had
increased to about 4 millions/year including about 500,000/year from
the Vietkieu(VnExpress dec28/09). Even more impressive was domestic
tourism amounting to 20 millions/year marking it the first time that
Vietnamese took vacation for pleasure in an area different from his/
her home town I. The vacation takers represented the new Vietnamese
Middle class at aboug 22%. Of the population who also possessed 25
millions cell phones and about 25 millions motorcycles and a million
cars.
Contrary to many Boatmen’s prediction, Vietnam’s Economy had not
tanked during the 2008 Economical Crisis. It emerged from the crisis
with flying color with a gain in GDP of 5.2 % which was achieved with
minimal level of inflation (Asian Development Bank).
Vietnam’s Economy was not without problems especially in deficit
spending and high public debt amounting to 42 % of GDP.
Vietnam record on Human Rights was not stellar but much better than
China’s and Myanmar’s. Freedom of expression in printed media is non
existent but on the Net it is significant in-dpite-of attempts of the
Thought Police to control the Net.
In the area of Frredom of Religion, the reconciliation with the
Vietnamese Catholics appeared to be solid while reconciliation with
one sect of the Meditation movement of Lang Mai appeared to be headed
to an impasse.
In Sport, Vietnam was second in the number of medals collected at
Seagame 2009 in Vientiane , Laos including a Siver Medal in soccer!
El Chino will give a grade of B+ to PM Nguyen Tan Dung and a A to the
Vietnamese People.