Q+A - Will Ban's visit to Myanmar yield results?
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Q+A - Will Ban's visit to Myanmar yield results?
U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon has pledged to deliver the "strongest
possible" message to Myanmar's military regime to release all political
prisoners, including opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi, when he visits
the country this week.
Questions have been raised about what Ban believes he can achieve, and
about the timing of his visit, which will start on Friday as Suu Kyi's
widely condemned trial resumes in Yangon.
WHY IS SUU KYI ON TRIAL?
The Nobel laureate is charged with violating the terms of her house arrest
last month by allowing an American intruder to stay at her home, which
prosecutors say breached a security law designed to protect the state from
"subversive elements".
However, critics say the charges are trumped up and the trial is an
attempt to keep Suu Kyi out of multi-party elections next year, which are
expected to entrench nearly half a century of army rule.
IS THERE A CHANCE SUU KYI WILL BE FREED?
There is very little hope of her release at this stage. Her participation
in any political process would be a major threat to the junta's grip on
the country.
Analysts say a suspended sentence and a return to house arrest is the best
Suu Kyi can hope for. The generals might favour this outcome, hoping it
might be seen as lenient, while still keeping Suu Kyi out of the political
picture.
But diplomats in New York say it would not be enough to call Ban's visit a
success. Suu Kyi has spent 13 of the past 19 years in detention, mostly
under house arrest at her lakeside home in Yangon.
WHAT DOES BAN HOPE TO ACHIEVE?
Ban wants the junta to release all political prisoners, Suu Kyi included,
and make meaningful democratic reforms.
The junta is usually impervious to international pressure, although Ban
may believe he has some sway with the generals, having convinced them to
allow aid agencies to operate in Myanmar after the devastating Cyclone
Nargis last year.
Analysts say Ban may have been given some indication by the generals, or
by U.N. envoy Ibrahim Gambari after his trip last week, that his visit can
bring some kind of positive result.
"There must be something worthwhile he can achieve but it won't be enough
to satisfy the international community," said Trevor Wilson, a former
Australian ambassador to Myanmar.
"He has to be seen to be tough and uncompromising when he meets the
generals and they will appear attentive. However, they're a hardline bunch
and I'm not optimistic they'll change."
WHY IS BAN VISITING MYANMAR NOW?
The timing of Ban's visit -- just as Suu Kyi's trial resumes -- has
baffled analysts who follow Myanmar.
Diplomats in New York have said that the generals offered him the dates of
July 3-4 and were probably not willing to negotiate. Ban would have
preferred to push his trip back so it did not coincide with the resumption
of Suu Kyi's trial but was unable to do so, the diplomats said.
Ban is midway through a five-year term as U.N. chief and the chances of
the junta making any concessions are slim. A fruitless visit at such a
critical time would do nothing to enhance the reputation of Ban, who has
been fighting off accusations of being too soft on the leaders of Sri
Lanka, Zimbabwe and Sudan.
"The visit could be auspicious if he sends an unequivocal signal that the
U.N. and the international community wants progress," said Amnesty
International researcher Benjamin Zawacki, a specialist on Myanmar.
"But if he doesn't do that and he lets the generals set the agenda, he'll
have achieved nothing."
Diplomats acknowledge the probability of failure is high. But members of
the U.N. Security Council are backing Ban's visit, some of them
reluctantly. Given China's reluctance to back U.N. sanctions, a visit of
secretary-general is the only card they have to play in Myanmar at the
moment.
WHY HAS THE JUNTA INVITED BAN?
U.N. diplomats have said Ban was apprehensive about accepting the
invitation because he feared such a visit would be used as propaganda to
legitimise the Myanmar regime and Suu Kyi's trial.
Analysts say the normally reclusive regime will portray the visit as a
seal of international approval for its much-criticised "road map" to
democracy.
"He's walking into a trap and anyone with any rational thinking can see
that," said one Southeast Asian academic, who asked not to be named.
"The generals will use the visit to show they are open, legitimate and
important enough for the U.N. secretary-general to give them a 'courtesy
call'."