upcoming Lith Seimas elections
EZ
upcoming Seimas elections (http://www.delfi.lt/news/elections2008/). I
think it is very important that all the people vote, so here is my
quick take on it.
Among the relatively well established populists (Tvarka ir
Teisingumas, Darbo partija) I think the established parties have a
chance. I think Social Democrats will maintain their position, the
Conservatives - even though they show strongly on the polls - will not
able to participate in a ruling coalition even if they win a lot of
votes - and will remain in the opposition. I am not so sure about
Liberal Center union (LICS) as it rides on its leader. There is also a
new party formed by show stars like Valinskas - called Tautos vienybes
party.
I will not be surprised by the modest wins of TT and DP (the populists
ability to fool country people during elections and then do wrong
things is known - http://www.delfi.lt/news/daily/lithuania/article.php?id=17985693),
but I think they will blow our with time.
I might be inclined to vote for Liberalu Sajudis (http://
www.liberalusajudis.lt/) this year as it has become stronger and show
a record that I like, but that depends on what I see during the run-
up to the elections.
Any opinions?
Best regards,
EZ
darsi...@comcast.net
> At this stage it is interesting to watch the preparations for the
> upcoming Seimas elections (http://www.delfi.lt/news/elections2008/). I
> think it is very important that all the people vote, so here is my
> quick take on it.
>
> Among the relatively well established populists (Tvarka ir
> Teisingumas, Darbo partija) I think the established parties have a
> chance. I think Social Democrats will maintain their position, the
> Conservatives - even though they show strongly on the polls - will not
> able to participate in a ruling coalition even if they win a lot of
> votes - and will remain in the opposition. I am not so sure about
> Liberal Center union (LICS) as it rides on its leader.
If they'd just dump Zuokas and put Bogusis in charge - then I'd take a
serious look at the party.
There is also a
> new party formed by show stars like Valinskas - called Tautos vienybes
> party.
Not interested. Simply because theyre not interesting in any way.
You skipped over the new Durniu Frontas !
>
> I will not be surprised by the modest wins of TT and DP (the populists
> ability to fool country people during elections and then do wrong
> things is known -http://www.delfi.lt/news/daily/lithuania/article.php?id=17985693),
> but I think they will blow our with time.
DP yes, TT - no. TT is likely to get a substantial vote. Granted they
have no realistic platform - but that young, good looking Paksas has
the babuska and street urchin vote locked down.
>
> I might be inclined to vote for Liberalu Sajudis (http://www.liberalusajudis.lt/) this year as it has become stronger and show
> a record that I like, but that depends on what I see during the run-
> up to the elections.
I like LRLS also - but dont tell anyone out here around Lemont ;)
> Any opinions?
>
> Best regards,
> EZ
Even though I like Kirkilas - I think the LSDP is going to lose seats
because of Kirkilo perceived (or real) ineffectiveness. NS is really
clueless - as evidenced by their website and Paulausko instant crisis
as a new Minister.
LVLS would do better if Prunskiene retired.
As for TS - Kubilius is the Lithuanian Hillary Clinton. He feels
entitled - but is politically his own worst enemy...
I believe that TS, TT and LSDP will have a pretty comparable number of
seats in the next Seimas - which means that they will need to draw
upon parties that are likely to have very different ideological views
to form a majority government. My guess is that there will be a series
of unstable majority governments over the next number of years or a
minority government - like Kirkilo - that will probably be
ineffective.
And I do hope that I'm wrong.
Vidas
EZ
>
> If they'd just dump Zuokas and put Bogusis in charge - then I'd take a
> serious look at the party.
>
> There is also a
>
> > new party formed by show stars like Valinskas - called Tautos vienybes
> > party.
>
> Not interested. Simply because theyre not interesting in any way.
>
I thought the same, then I read the S.Stoma joined it, then I thought
a bit. I guess still not interested, but IMO this is definitely better
than TT or DP.
> You skipped over the new Durniu Frontas !
>
That's right! Too many parties.
Not interested ;-/
>
> > I will not be surprised by the modest wins of TT and DP (the populists
> > ability to fool country people during elections and then do wrong
> > things is known -http://www.delfi.lt/news/daily/lithuania/article.php?id=17985693),
> > but I think they will blow our with time.
>
> DP yes, TT - no. TT is likely to get a substantial vote. Granted they
> have no realistic platform - but that young, good looking Paksas has
> the babuska and street urchin vote locked down.
>
He has a part of Samogitia - just because he his 'one of them'. Not
many Seimas members can speak good Samogitian in front of public, can
they?
>
> > I might be inclined to vote for Liberalu Sajudis (http://www.liberalusajudis.lt/) this year as it has become stronger and show
> > a record that I like, but that depends on what I see during the run-
> > up to the elections.
>
> I like LRLS also - but dont tell anyone out here around Lemont ;)
>
You got my word ;)
> As for TS - Kubilius is the Lithuanian Hillary Clinton. He feels
> entitled - but is politically his own worst enemy...
>
> I believe that TS, TT and LSDP will have a pretty comparable number of
> seats in the next Seimas - which means that they will need to draw
> upon parties that are likely to have very different ideological views
> to form a majority government. My guess is that there will be a series
> of unstable majority governments over the next number of years or a
> minority government - like Kirkilo - that will probably be
> ineffective.
>
Add to that the TS is incapable of reaching any compromise - it seems
that they are quite smug in their ability not to be able to strike any
deals. 'I want this and no less. If not, I am not a part of this.'
Then - if you are right - this leaves TT and LSDP to make a coalition.
As LSDP will be a larger fraction, they might be able to nominate the
PM.
Best regards,
EZ