NO, NOT THE OIL! #182 (3/4)

[R Kym Horsell]

@Iraqi oil output set to stay low
Baghdad (Yomiuri Shimbun). With public security still volatile,
prospects for Iraqi oil production getting back into full swing are
growing dim, according to oil industry officials.
Moves to restore oil production facilities also appear to have slowed
in Iraq as fierce fighting continues and after a spate of kidnappings
of foreign civilians.
Delays in increasing Iraqi oil output will push up the price of crude
oil on internat'l markets, which may have an adverse impact on
Japanese and world economies, an industry expert said.
The Iraqi oil ministry has postponed indefinitely an internat'l oil
conference, originally slated for Sun in Basra, S Iraq.
The conference, intended as an opportunity for the ministry to brief
US and European oil majors on the country's oil development plans, has
been postponed because of the worsening security situation. Hopes that
Iraq could promote its oil development through investment of foreign
capital appear to be gone for now.
According to the Internat'l Energy Agency, Iraq's crude oil production
in Mar recovered to prewar levels of about 2.4 mn bpd.
The recovery was chiefly due to resumed operation of some pipelines
transporting crude oil from N Iraq to a port in Turkey, restarting its
oil shipments to European markets.
Major Japanese trading houses, including Mitsubishi Corp and Itochu
Corp, resumed crude oil imports via a port in S Iraq last autumn.
The oil ministry of Iraq had forecast an increase in crude oil
production to 2.8 mn bpd during 2004, and hoped that it could increase
production toward 5 mn to 6 mn bpd in the future.
Due to the ever-worsening security situation, as evidenced by the
recent kidnappings, expectations of increased oil production have now faded.
The prevailing view in the market now is that unless the security
situation improves, oil production in Iraq will remain in the
neighbourhood of 2.5 mn bpd in the days ahead.
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries has decided to cut
its quota for oil production by 1 mn bpd this month, and says it has
no plans to increase quotas for the time being.
Should there be further delays in increasing Iraqi production, crude
oil prices are likely to stay at current highs, pushing up prices of
petroleum products, such as gasoline, with serious implications for
corporate earnings and global economic growth.

@In Canada, Ottawa sneezes and the provinces catch cold
St John's, Newfoundland and Labrador (NY Times). As soon as 20,000
govt workers went on strike 2 wk ago, 70 Native Canadian hunters from
Quebec took advantage of the absence of conservation officers and
slaughtered dozens of caribou in an endangered herd in Labrador.
The provincial govt complained that the hunters had committed a crime
against the environment. But it was only the most dramatic sign that
many vital public services in this remote province of 525,000 people
are beginning to break down. It also provided a cautionary tale for
many other Canadian provinces that have been suffering growing budget
deficits, debt burdens and tensions with public sector unions since
the fed govt began shifting many of the costs of social services their
way in the mid-1990's.
With nurses and X-ray and lab technicians on strike, hospitals in
Newfoundland and Labrador have cancelled elective surgery and are
delaying chemotherapy for some patients. Public school assistants are
on picket lines, and thus unavailable to aid children with learning
disabilities. Ferry services connecting small island communities are
virtually paralysed, disrupting deliveries of food and other supplies.
The walkout began after Danny Williams, the new Conservative premier
of Newfoundland and Labrador, announced that in order to reduce a $770
mn budget deficit he would have to lay off 4,000 public service workers,
or 13% of the govt's payroll, in the next 4 y and freeze wages for 2 y.
"We face an awful dilemma," Mr. Williams said in an interview on
Wed. "To achieve a balanced budget in 4 y we had to look at removing
dentures and eyeglasses for people on social assistance."
Instead, he said, the govt chose to raise driver and liquor licenses and
moose-hunting fees, as well as postpone some school and hospital projects.
Those are the kinds of painful choices being made by virtually every
one of Canada's 10 provinces. Collectively, they registered budget
shortfalls of more than $4 bn last y -- the weakest financial
performance in 6 y, according to the Dominion Bond Rating Service.
With a slowing economy, listless corporate tax collection and, most
important, rising costs in the health care system, provincial govt
finances are expected to be even weaker this y.
Ontario, Canada's most populous province, is expected to announce a
$multi bn deficit in the coming wk that will require serious
belt-tightening. Politicians are considering several painful measures,
including raising road tolls and reducing drug benefits for affluent
snr citizens. The new Liberal govt has already reversed tax cuts,
raised tobacco taxes and lifted a cap on electricity rates.
New Brunswick, with a $250 mn deficit, announced last m that it would
trim 750 public sector jobs, close several hospitals and raise user
fees. Prince Edward Island, with a $20 mn deficit, is raising taxes on
gasoline and cigarettes. The Quebec govt was able to balance its books
this y by announcing it would sell more than $600 mn in yet-to-be-disclosed
public assets, but warned of a $1.3 bn deficit next y unless the fed
govt grants it substantial help in meeting health care costs.
Provincial finances began to suffer in the mid-1990's when the fed
govt began running up its own budget surpluses largely by reducing
revenue transfers to provincial govts for welfare, health care and education.
This was an especially hard blow for the provinces, which, under
Canada's Constitution, carry much greater responsibility than American
states do for providing health and other social services.
The fed share of spending for Canada's health care system, which is
based on a sprawling public medical insurance system, has dropped from
40% to about 16% since the mid-1990's. Meanwhile, the health care
budget of Newfoundland and Labrador has increased 70% -- 35 times
faster than the province's total spending -- in the last decade.
With the average age of Canada's population increasing and health care
professionals' salaries rising, provincial health budgets are expected
to continue to spiral across the country.
Provincial premiers are already banding together to lobby Ottawa for
more financial help. "We have created a health care system that is a
voracious devourer of every public dollar we have," said Brian Lee
Crowley, head of the Atlantic Institute for Market Studies, a policy
institute based in Halifax, Nova Scotia.
Only oil-rich Alberta and Saskatchewan Provinces have managed to
reduce debt levels in recent years, but Saskatchewan was still forced
to raise its provincial sales tax to 7% from 6% last wk to avert a
significant deficit.
"The provinces are all under water with the exception of Alberta,"
Robert K Rae, the former Ontario premier, said in an interview.
"Canadians like to have European social services and American-style
taxes, and the result is we have Canadian-style deficits and the
chickens always come home to roost."

@US jobless claims surge
Washington (AP). The number of Americans filing new claims for
unemployment benefits, after having fallen to the lowest level in 4 y,
shot up last wk by the biggest amount since late 2002.
The new report dealt a setback to hopes that the economy is finally
beginning to produce a sustained recovery in jobs.
The Labour Dept reported that the number of newly laid-off workers
filing claims for unemployment benefits jumped by 30,000 last wk to a
seasonally adjusted level of 360,000.
The increase was far above the rise of 7,000 that economists had been
expecting, but analysts cautioned against reading too much into a
single week's change in the volatile series. Labour Dept analysts
noted that the period covered was the 1st wk in a new quarter, a time
when the jobless claims can be even more volatile.
The 4-wk moving average for new claims, viewed as a better gauge of
trends because it smooths out some of the volatility, was up by a
smaller 6,750 to 344,250, the highest level since early Mar.
"The job market is still weak, but it is improving and this increase
in the claims number doesn't colour that picture at all," said Mark
Zandi, chief economist at Economy.com.
On Wall Street, stocks had little reaction to the jump in jobless claims,
with the Dow Jones industrial average down by 2 points in late morning trading.
Economists are hoping that the strong economic growth that began last
N summer will finally convince businesses to begin re-hiring laid-off
workers, something that Pres George W Bush and other incumbents running
for re-election are also hoping to see as evidence that the nation's
long jobs slump is finally coming to an end.
The biggest sign yet that the labour market has finally turned the
corner was the news that 308,000 payroll jobs were created last m, the
biggest gain in 4 y.
Even with that increase, the nation's unemployment rate rose by a
tenth of a point to 5.7% as the improving jobs picture encouraged
people who had dropped out of the labour market to come back and
resume looking for work.
The 330,000 Americans who filed for jobless benefits last wk
represented the largest number since early Feb.
The increase of 30,000, after a decline of 13,000 the wk before, was the
biggest one-wk jump since a rise of 42,000 in the wk of Dec 7, 2002, a
time when the economy was still struggling to rebound from the 2001 recession.
The rise in unemployment claims came as economists were beginning to
worry that signs of a strengthening economy and a worrisome inflation
report might prompt the Fed Reserve to begin raising interest rates to
slow things down beginning as early as this summer.
Before the report that consumer prices had jumped by 0.5% in Mar,
many analysts believed the central bank might be content to keep rates
on hold at a 45-y low of 1% until after the Nov presidential election.

@Half of Canada's conventional natural gas remains undiscovered: NEB
Calgary (CP). More than 1/2 of Canada's estimated 501 trillion cubic
feet of conventional natural gas supplies remain undiscovered, the
Nat'l Energy Board said Thu.
In its report on the status of conventional natural gas, the energy
regulator said 286 trillion cubic feet of gas has not yet been
found. One 3rd of those undiscovered resources are believed to be
located in the W Canadian sedimentary basin that stretches from
Saskatchewan to BC.
The report also concludes that a larger portion of undiscovered gas
will be found at shallow depths in small pools. As a result, the high
drilling levels seen over the last few y will need to be maintained to
keep production at current levels.
Demand for natural gas has soared across N America in recent ys because
cold winters have raised its use for home heating while gas has become
an increasingly popular fuel to power electricity generating plants.
Elsewhere in its report, the Nat'l Energy Board also said 80,000 wells
drilled in Alberta between 1990 and 2000 "proved up a large part of the
previously undiscovered resources, but did not add significantly to the
expectations of the province's ultimate potential or total gas resources."
The report estimates that Alberta's portion of Canada's supply
contains 207 trillion cubic feet of marketable gas -- up marginally
from a 1992 estimate of 200 trillion cubic feet made by the Alberta
Energy and Utilities Board.
The report also said NE Brit Columbia required a new assessment due to
a number of large, new discoveries made over the last several y and
the increased drilling activity in the region.
A new assessment is also required for the shallow water portion of the
Scotian Shelf, off the coast of Nova Scotia, the report said, "due to
the recent production declines from the Sable Island fields and due to
the disappointing results from exploration efforts over the past few years."

@Congo ferry mishap claims more than 40 lives
Kinshasa (Reuters). At least 43 people have died and 10 others are
missing after a boat capsized off the shores of Lake Tanganyika in a
remote corner of eastern Congo. A UN rep says most of the victims are
children. She says the bodies of 25 children, 17 women and a man have
been recovered, while local fishermen have rescued 53 people. The 15
tonne wooden ferry was transporting goods and passengers on the lake
when it capsized off the village of Obola. The rep says survivors
have told her water began pouring in half an hour after the boat left
port because it was overloaded and in bad condition.

Dhaka. The tornado death toll in northern Bangladesh has reportedly
risen to 69 after rescuers found 14 more bodies. Also, nearly 1,000
people have been injured, many of them with broken limbs. Authorities
say the storms this week destroyed more than 3,000 tin-roof and
mud-and-straw huts, leaving about 15,000 villagers homeless. The
disaster management and relief ministry says in a statement that
emergency relief such as rice and plastic tarpaulins have been rushed
to the affected areas.

@Denmark to release Iraq WMD intel
Wonderful, wonderful Kobenhavn. The Danish Govt is bowing to public
pressure announcing it will declassify sensitive intel about Iraq's
alleged weapons of mass destruction (WMD) after being accused of
misusing confidential info to justify the case for war. 2 journalists
and a former intel officer have been charged with leaking classified
reports written for the Danish Govt, an ally of the US. The reports,
which were written ahead of the Iraq war, questioned whether Saddam
Hussein posed a real threat given that there were no reliable details
on Iraq's operational WMD capacity. The spectre of the Govt misusing
intel has prompted the PM to announce he will take the highly
unusual step of de-classifying the nat'l intel agency's assessment.
The confidential details will be made public on Mon.

@Blair denies conflict with US over Iraq
NY. Brit PM Tony Blair has downplayed talk of a rift with the US over
the recent handling of militia resistance in Iraq. Mr Blair is due to
meet US Pres George W Bush tomorrow. Mr Blair spoke after meeting
with UN Sec-Gen Kofi Annan in NY. On of the eve of his meeting with
Pres Bush, he was asked about disagreements over the US military
response to the fierce resistance in Iraq. "The reason why we are
maintaining order is so that a political process that allows the Iraqi
people to be governed democratically can take root and that's the
choice for the future for Iraq," Mr Blair said. Mr Annan says the
internat'l community is now united on the future of Iraq and
determined not to fail.

@Telling Bush he has got it wrong is what Blair must do
Op/Ed (Independent). Former For Sec Robin Cook on an historic
challenge facing the PM Today's rendezvous at the White House is the
most crucial diplomatic meeting of Tony Blair's career, as the
political futures of both himself and George Bush hang on pulling Iraq
back from the brink. A change in events on the ground must start with
a change of approach in the White House, but securing such a shift in
direction will not be easy, and the personalities of the 2
participants make it more difficult.
Tony Blair is a man of immense, attractive charm, which he maintains
by shrinking from disagreeable exchanges. Everyone who has worked with
the PM is familiar with the universal tendency of visiting dignitaries
to leave pleased with what they have heard -- or what they believe
they have heard. Spelling out bluntly to someone as powerful as the
Pres of the US that he has got it wrong is what Tony Blair must do today.
It does not help that George Bush keeps reminding us that he has got
the Almighty on his side. This cramps his scope for tactical flexibility,
and his statement on Iraq this wk exuded the certitude of revealed
religion. Half the problem is that a y after "liberating" Iraq, Pres
Bush will keep discussing the continuing US presence in the terms of
"waging a war", "staying on the offensive" and "defeating enemies".
There is no prospect of his leading a successful reconstruction of
Iraq so long as he regards large parts of its population as enemies.
His delusion that progress in Iraq can be secured through military
victory regardless of political cost appears fully shared by US cmdrs
on the ground. General Ricardo Sanchez is massing troops with the
stated intention that he will "kill or capture Sadr". However, Muqtada
Sadr has taken refuge in the shrine at Najaff, one of the 2 holiest
Shia sites, and storming it would be the equivalent of attacking
Canterbury Cathedral.
The most important job for Tony Blair today is to convince the Bush
Admin that it is not engaged in a military operation to beat a
discrete enemy but in a political exercise to win the hearts and minds
of a whole people. It would help to recover some of the immense ground
lost in Iraqi public opinion if at least one Marine was charged with
an offence arising from the deaths of 350 women and children in
Fallujah. Instead, the spin from Downing Street is that the PM is
going to Washington for a show of solidarity and joint resolve to the
strategy of hand-over on 30 Jun.
There are 2 obvious problems with this briefing. The 1st is a problem
common to both Brit and the US. There is zero substance to the
supposed hand-over strategy. We have not yet decided what actual
powers we are going to hand over. Even more remarkably, we have no
idea to whom we are going to hand them, or even how they will be
picked. The joint resolve we will be demonstrating this afternoon is a
determination that on 30 Jun we will do something, we know not what.
The 2nd problem is specifically Brit. By committing ourselves in
advance to showing solidarity with Pres Bush, we have thrown in our
negotiating hand. Our support for the Pres should have been
conditional on his agreeing to a strategy in Iraq of minimal use of
violence and maximum speed to a democratic, legitimate govt.
Our own long history of colonial occupation has taught our army that
there is a Newtonian law of military force. The application of
military force by an occupier tends to produce an equal and opposite
resistance by the occupied. That is why Osama bin Laden must be
regarding events in Fallujah and Najaff with glee. What he wanted to
achieve by demolishing the Twin Towers was confrontation between the W
and the Arab world, and that is what George Bush has delivered in Iraq.
And now he has delivered it in the Middle E too. The real significance
of the exchange of letters this wk is that Pres Bush has decided that
his role in the Middle E peace process is not to hold the ring for a
negotiated settlement but to get into the ring and punch alongside
Ariel Sharon for an imposed solution. The starting point for all Brit
and US efforts to promote an agreement in the Middle E has been
Security Council Resolution 242, drafted by Brit and demanding Israeli
withdrawal from the territories it occupied in the 1967 war. Pres Bush
has just declared that UN resolution unrealistic.
There could not be a clearer illustration in Arab eyes of the double
standards of the W than our demand for absolute support for UN resolutions
on Iraq coupled with our cavalier dismissal of UN resolutions on
Israel. After his capitulation to Sharon's demands, it is inconceivable
that Pres Bush will command any support in Arab capitals for US
objectives, in Iraq or in his War on Terror.
There was always a wild implausibility in Pres Bush posing as an
honest broker. Psychologically he lives in a private world of stark
choices between good and evil, which leads him to polarise the real
world into those who are with him in fighting evil and those who are
against him. The clear message this wk is that he has decided that
Sharon is with him, which carries the consequence that the
Palestinians are against him.
It is only because he has looked at the new package from Sharon's
standpoint that Pres Bush can describe it as "realistic". From the
Palestinian perspective, what can possibly be realistic about his
insistence that they should accommodate returning refugees in an area
of territory that he has sharply reduced?
I do not know if anyone at the State Dept was rung up before the White
House endorsed such a one-sided settlement. I cannot believe that
diplomats at the Foreign Office were complicit in the surreal statement
from Downing Street that Pres Bush's new position could inject new
life into the road-map. George Bush has just unplugged the road-map
from its life-support apparatus, characteristically with no
consultation with the UN, his supposed partner in the process.
And how dare Downing Street demand that the Palestinian Authority
should "show political will" in submitting to this fresh humiliation
when it has been unable to persuade Pres Bush to show the political
will to pressurise Sharon to deliver his side of the bargain?
Famously, Tony Blair promised Labour MPs that if they supported the
invasion of Iraq he would deliver George Bush's support for the road-map.
George Bush could not have delivered a worse snub to Tony Blair on the
eve of their meeting than to abandon that road-map. The PM may not be
able to rescue the peace process, but at least he should feel freed
from demonstrating solidarity with the policies in Iraq of a president
who has so comprehensively failed to show solidarity with our joint
policy on the Middle E.

@Rumsfeld: Iraq Toll Higher Than Expected
Washington (AP). Def Sec Donald H Rumsfeld said Thu that the death
toll of US troops in recent fighting in Iraq was higher than he had
expected, acknowledging a change in plans as he announced 1000s of
soldiers won't be coming home as early as promised.
Rumsfeld described a decision to keep some 20,000 troops inside Iraq
longer than originally planned, telling reporters at the Pentagon: "I
certainly would not have estimated that we would have had the number
of individuals lost that we have had lost in the last wk."
Halfway through Apr, the m already is the deadliest of the war for the
US, with 88 US soldiers killed in a surge of violence coming from
multiple insurgent factions inside the country.
Hundreds of Iraqis have been killed.
The violence has prompted generals in Iraq to seek more combat power
than they had originally planned, and the most convenient source will
be the units scheduled to rotate home after yearlong tours.
The decision to keep more troops there breaks a promise to soldiers
who were assured they would stay no more than one year. By extending
their tours of duty by up to 3 m, the Pentagon is acknowledging that
the insurgency has ruined its plans to reduce the size of the US
military presence this spring.
Pres Bush, speaking at a symposium in Iowa, also acknowledged the
difficulties.
"The situation on the ground, I readily concede, is tough work," Bush
said. "We've got good people there working it, and some have paid the
highest price of all."
Those staying include 2 brigades from the 1AD, based in Germany, said
Gen Peter Pace, vice chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, totalling
as many as 14,000 troops. An additional 2,800 soldiers are from the
2nd Armored Cavalry Regiment, based in Fort Polk, La. These are forces
geared for heavy ground combat, with tanks and armoured Bradley
Fighting Vehicles.
The rest include Army Nat'l Guard and Reserve units from 20 states,
Pace said. Most are military police, engineer and transportation
units, according to the Pentagon.
A few soldiers from the 1st Armored had already left. They will have
to go back to Iraq, Army generals said.
Should the heightened violence last beyond 90 days and into summer,
new units will be rotated into Iraq to take their place, Rumsfeld
said. Officials did not specify which units those might be.
An uprising by followers of militant Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr in
S Iraq, coupled with heavy fighting between Marines and Sunni fighters
in the restive Fallujah region W of Baghdad, has led to concerns of
wider resistance to the US occupation in advance of the scheduled Jun
30 transfer of power to an Iraqi govt.
The US has a total of about 137,000 troops in Iraq now, Rumsfeld
said. That number was supposed to have decreased to 115,000 by May,
but Rumsfeld said Gen John Abizaid, the overall cmdr of the Iraq war,
decided he needs to keep the force level at about 135,000 troops.
Some critics have asserted throughout the US occupation of Iraq that
the military had too few troops on the ground to stabilise the country
and assure its economic and political rebuilding.
Pace rejected such criticism, saying generals request the firepower
they need but know that having too many soldiers risks increasing
local resentment.
While extending tours of soldiers in Iraq is not unprecedented, it is
done with great reluctance because of concern about morale.
Gen George Casey, the Army vice chief of staff, told reporters Thu
that he believes these soldiers accept that their 1st obligation is to
succeed in the mission.
"Everybody's disappointed," he said. "Does it create morale problems?
Depends on the strength of the unit. These guys will always place the
mission first. Every soldier understands that."
At a Baghdad news conference Thu, Gen Richard Myers, chairman of the
Joint Chiefs of Staff, was asked whether the troop extensions indicate
plans for large-scale offensive operations. He did not answer
directly, saying the move was deemed necessary given "extremist and
terrorist acts that must be dealt with."
The Army is so stretched by its commitments in Iraq, Afghanistan, the
Balkans and elsewhere that it has few, if any, forces immediately
available to substitute in Iraq for the 1st Armored or 2AC.
Also, these units have been heavily involved in one of the most
important US military missions there: training 1000s of Iraqi security
forces. Those Iraqi army and civil defence corps members are central
to the Pentagon's plan for eventually turning over military control to
the Iraqis and pulling out US troops.

@Venezuelan president sharply criticises Bush
Caracas (IHT/AP). Pres George W. Bush is to blame for the death and
violence that is going on in Iraq, said Pres Hugo Chavez of
Venezuela, a fierce critic of the US Admin.
During a speech to commemorate his return to power in the wake of a
short-lived 2002 coup, the leftist Chavez also accused the Bush
Admin of playing a crucial role in the failed attempt to oust him.
"Who is to blame for the violence that has been unleashed in Iraq in
the last year? Is it Saddam Hussein? Is it those who they call Islamic
fundamentalists? No, the blame for all those deaths has a name:
George W. Bush," Chavez told a crowd of his supporters outside
Miraflores Presid'l Palace on Tue. The US Embassy denied on Wed that
it participated in the coup.

@Uri Party claims historic S Korea election win
Seoul (ABC, Mark Simkin). The pro-govt party in S Korea has won a
stunning victory in parliamentary elections. The win is being
described as an historic result. The Uri Party held just 49 seats
before the election. It has now increased that to more than 150. The
result reflects public anger at the oppn's decision to impeach Pres
Roh Moo Hyun. The result is expected to help the Pres return to
office and bolster his campaign for better relations with the
communist north. Analysts are talking of an historic step to the
political left -- it is the first time in more than 40 y that S
Korea's Parliament has been controlled by left-leaning politicians.

@Bush says tax cuts should be permanent
Des Moines (AP). On Tax Day 2004, Pres Bush told voters in the
heartland that his policies are fattening their wallets and that tax
cuts he pushed through Congress should be made permanent to fuel the economy.
"Tax relief today, and not tax relief tomorrow, and we need to do
something about it," the president said.
As mn of people across the country rushed to meet Thu's tax filing
deadline, Bush marked the occasion with a day trip to Iowa, a state he
narrowly lost to Democrat Al Gore in the 2000 election.
"Tax day is something most people really don't look forward to, but
this y it's a little better because of the tax relief we delivered and
the economy is stronger for it," he told about 500 people at a
symposium on fostering growth in rural areas.
The Internal Revenue Service says the average tax refund increased 5%
this y to $2,090, and Bush says that is pumping more money into the
economy. He called on Congress to make the tax cuts permanent.
Among the tax cuts set to expire at year's end are an increase in the child
tax credit, reductions for some married couples who would pay less if
they filed as individuals, and an expansion of the bottom 10% tax bracket.
"Now is not the time to be raising taxes on hardworking people," Bush
said. "With this economy growing strong and getting stronger, we don't
need to raise the tax burden."
Though Iowa has just 7 electoral votes, Bush and John Kerry, the
presumptive Democratic presidential nominee, are battling hard for the
state. Both men and their aligned interest groups are airing TV ads here.
In his remarks, Bush also highlighted positive trends in the US
economy and noted the 308,000 jobs added in Mar -- the biggest
improvement in 4 y.
But just before he spoke, the Labor Dept reported that the number of
Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits shot up last wk by the
largest amount since 2002. The new report dealt a setback to hopes that
the economy is finally beginning to produce a sustained recovery in jobs.
Kerry, who likes to remind voters about the net 1.84 mn jobs lost
under Bush, accused the president Thu of misleading the public about
the tax policies espoused by both.
"George Bush has made a big deal out of trying to convince America
that he's lowered taxes for all Americans and that I'm going to come
along and somehow raise taxes on Americans," Kerry told students at
Howard University in Washington.
"This president is busy trying to run away from his own record and
create a phony one for someone else," the Massachusetts senator said.
"Under my plan for America, my economic plan, I'm going to provide $225 bn
more in tax cuts to the middle class than George Bush ever dreamed of."
Kerry's campaign also issued statements asserting that he has proposed
3 times the tax cuts for middle-class families as Bush, most of it in
tax breaks for college tuition and health care.
The campaign also posted a cartoon on its Web site to illustrate "the
dark cloud" over the middle-class caused by Bush's "reckless, out-of-touch
policies that have driven up everyday costs like education and health
care." The video depicts a suburban family receiving bad news in the
mail about rising college tuition, health care and energy costs, all
courtesy of Bush, pictured on the stamps.
Along the president's motorcade route, 2 protesters held a sign that
said, "Forget Tax Cuts. Remember Rural America." And outside the hotel
where Bush spoke, "Bush-Cheney '04" signs were mixed with ones against
the Iraq war that said: "Pre-emptive Strike. Premeditated Murder."
At the Des Moines airport, about 300 members of the Iowa Air Nat'l
Guard, including some who served in Iraq, surrounded Bush, who told
them his budget proposal would halve the fed deficit in five y and
maintain defence priorities.

@Polls: Americans not buying Bush tax cut rhetoric
Op/Ed (The Daily Mis-lead). Pres Bush is scheduled to tout his tax
cuts today at a Tax Day event in Iowa. He is expected to repeat his
oft-heard mantra that tax cuts have helped all Americans. But
according to a new poll by Money Magazine, "60% of Americans said the
Bush tax cut did not personally help them".
Meanwhile, almost half of all Americans say that their taxes have
risen under Bush. And a look at the record shows exactly why that
majority opinion is factually correct.
According to a non-partisan analysis, in the y 2006 88% of Americans
will receive less than $100 from the president's 2003 tax cut.
Additionally, the president has refused to extend the full child tax
credit to 16 mn children, including 250,000 children of military
families. At the same time, the president's 2004 budget proposed an
increase of almost $6 bn in new fed taxes and fees while creating
record-deficits that have forced states to raise taxes by $14.5 bn
since 2001.
And to top it off, he has reduced IRS audits of large profitable
corporations whose tax rates have plummeted, while increasing IRS
audits of ordinary Americans.
Of course, there is a handful of people who are reaping a personal
windfall from Bush's tax policy: Pres Bush, VP Cheney, and their top
campaign donors. The president himself pocketed more than $30,000 in
new tax breaks this y while the VP took in an extra $11,000. And a new
Public Campaign report shows that top Bush-Cheney contributors are
raking in even more. For instance, Charles Cawley, CEO of credit card
giant MBNA, raised more than $200,000 for the Bush-Cheney campaign and
was rewarded with at least $276,000 in tax breaks. Similarly, William
MaGuire, CEO of UnitedHealth Group, raised more than $100,000 for the
Bush-Cheney campaign and will get at least $329,000 in new tax breaks
from Pres Bush.

Pretoria. South Africa's ruling ANC is celebrating its biggest
election win since apartheid ended 10 years ago. The former
liberation movement appears to have gained a 2/3 majority in
parliament, giving it the right to amend the constitution. However,
this also piles more pressure on its leaders to solve the problems
which keep most of South Africa's 45 mn people poor ­ high
unemployment, Aids and crime. Pres Thabo Mbeki has promised a
mn new jobs over the next 5 years.

@Bin Laden offers "truce" with Europe
London (AP). A man identifying himself as al-Qaeda leader Osama bin
Laden offered a truce to European countries in an audiotape broadcast
that tries to drive a wedge between America and its European allies
and may be a message to sympathetic militants to back off of Europe.
European countries quickly ruled out any sort of negotiation with
al-Qaeda.
But experts on militant Islam say the message appears aimed at the
European people -- hoping they will pressure their govts in the wake
of last m's Madrid bombings to stop supporting US military operations
in Muslim nations. And, an analyst said, it appears also to be a
message to al-Qaeda sympathisers to stop European operations to avoid
galvanising support for Washington's war on terrorism.
"Bin Laden is seeing how those bombings [in Madrid] were used by the
Americans to pressure Europe into more action," Montasser el-Zayat, an
Egyptian lawyer who defends Islamic radicals. "This tape is a message
to those groups to cease these actions."
The message described the Sep 11, 2001, attacks on the United States
and the Mar 11 Madrid train bombings as revenge strikes, though it
did not directly claim al-Qaeda responsibility. The tape, which aired
in full on pan-Arab satellite stations Al-Jazeera and al-Arabiya at
more than 7 minutes, came at a time when the US-led coalition in Iraq
is facing particularly violent resistance.
"I am offering a truce to European countries," the taped message said
as the stations showed an old, still picture of bin Laden. "Its core
is our commitment to cease operations against any country which does
not carry out an onslaught against Muslims or interfere in their affairs."
"The door to a truce is open for 3 m," but that could be extended, the
tape said. "The truce will begin when the last soldier leaves our
countries," the speaker said without elaborating.
The US Central Intel Agency said the tape was probably an authentic
recording of bin Laden, after conducting a technical analysis of the
voice. European intel officials were also working to verify the
authenticity of the tape.
Bin Laden is believed hiding in the mountains along the
Pakistan-Afghanistan border. The stations did not say how they
received the tapes.
Several audio and video tapes of al-Qaeda's No 2, Ayman al-Zawahri,
have been released in recent months, but the tape was the 1st
purportedly from bin Laden since Jan, when a speaker believed to be
bin Laden said on audiotape that the US-led war in Iraq was the start
of the "occupation" of Gulf states for their oil and called on Muslims
to keep fighting a holy war in the Middle E.
In London, the Foreign Office ruled out any deal with bin Laden,
saying al-Qaeda's "attacks are against the very idea of coexistence.
... The right response is to continue to confront terrorism".
Italian For Min Franco Frattini said in Rome that "it's unthinkable
that we may open a negotiation with bin Laden, everybody understands this."
Spain's incoming foreign minister, Miguel Angel Moratinos, told his
nation's parliament that "we don't have to listen to or answer" the
tape. While a German govt rep said: "There can be no negotiations with
terrorists and serious criminals like Osama bin Laden."
The message said, "What happened on Sep 11 and Mar 11 was your goods
delivered back to you. ...Security is a need for all humans and we
could not let you have a monopoly on it for yourselves."
"People who are aware would not let their politicians jeopardise their
security," it added in a direct appeal to European citizens.
Spain's outgoing PM Jose Maria Aznar's Popular Party strongly backed
the war in Iraq despite popular and political opp'n. It lost general
elections 3 days after Mar 11 terror attacks killed 191 people.
Incoming Socialist leader Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero has pledged to
withdraw Spain's 1,300 troops from Iraq by Jun 30 unless there is UN
control by then.
The truce was offered, the speaker said, because polls have shown that
"most of the European peoples want reconciliation" with the Islamic world.
Spanish authorities say the Madrid bombers were acting independently
but may have had ties with Islamic extremists elsewhere. The US has
blamed Sep 11 on al-Qaeda.
"They say that we kill for the sake of killing, but reality shows that
they lie," the tape said.
Russians, he said, were only killed after attacking Afghanistan in the
1980s and Chechnya, Europeans after invading Iraq and Afghanistan and
the Americans in NY after "supporting the Jews in Palestine and their
invasion of the Arabian Peninsula".
Dia'a Rashwan, noting that tape deviated from bin Laden's usual labelling
Europeans as "the Crusader-Jewish alliance," said the al-Qaeda leader
appeared to be focusing on the European people to get them to pressure
their govts and "isolate the American Admin even from its European allies".
Bin Laden, he said, also may want to show he is still alive so he can
try to sink US Pres George W Bush's re-election bid. The purported bin
Laden message denounced the US war on Iraq, saying it was making
"billions of dollars" for companies, naming the American firm Halliburton.
The message also vowed revenge for Israel's killing of Sheik Ahmed
Yassin, founder and spiritual leader of the Palestinian militant group
Hamas. The message said that American policy ignores the "real
problem," which is "the occupation of all of Palestine".

@Lawyer hopeful Hicks will come home
Sydney (AAP). The fact no charges had been laid against AUS
terrorist suspect David Hicks left hope he may be sent home, his
US-appointed defence lawyer said.
US Marine lawyer Michael Mori was speaking after a US official who
interrogated Hicks told America's 60 Minutes II program the 28-yo
detained at Guantanamo Bay had not been involved in combat against the US.
Identified only as Tom, the official said Hicks readily cooperated
during questioning, revealing details of several of al-Qaeda's
training camps for mountain warfare, snipers and bomb-making.
He said Hicks, from Adel, had told him he progressed through the camps
but he baulked from going further when he was asked to become a
suicide bomber.
Major Mori said he had not had the opportunity to interview the
unidentified official, but he said he was interested to hear comments
matching his own.
"Here's another person echoing exactly what I've been saying all along
-- that David Hicks hasn't injured any US service member or citizen
and he wasn't participating in any terrorist activity," he told SYD
radio 2UE.
"Now it's gone on 2 y and 4 m -- that's a long time for not hurting
anyone."
Although he was unable to confirm the facts surrounding his client's
case, Major Mori said questions remained over what Hicks had done to
violate internat'l law and on what grounds he was being held.
He said the fact charges against Hicks had not yet been laid --
although making it difficult to prepare a defence -- left hope his
client would not be charged and would return to AUS.
"I think it also leaves hope that maybe David Hicks won't be charged
and will be finally returned to his country," he said.
He said any charges "could come in 2 days or 2 m".
Major Mori said Hicks should be afforded the same treatment as his
Brit counterparts, five of whom have been sent home and freed.
"Any favourable condition that Britons get should flow to David
Hicks," he said.
He said the Brit govt was arguing to have the remaining four UK
detainees returned home, unless they were tried under internat'l standards.
Maj Mori said he had just spent a wk with Hicks, who was being held in
solitary confinement at the military base.
He said Hicks was being treated professionally and humanely by the US
soldiers overseeing him.
Asked whether he was in a reasonable mental state, Maj Mori said:
"Considering the conditions he's under and the length of his
detention, I'm comfortable with where he's at.
"I'm not worried that he's going to anything drastic in the next couple
of days."But he described the detainee's situation as "pretty bleak".
"He's going to be ... at this point, heading towards a commission
that's not going to provide him the same fundamental protections that
you'd find in any other court system in the world," he said.
Major Mori said the US Supreme Court would hear an application on
whether the Fed Court had jurisdiction to review complaints from
detainees next wk.
A decision was likely to be handed down in Jun, he said.

@Terror threat sparks call for US citizens to flee Saudi Arabia
Washington (Reuters). The US State Dept has strongly urged American
citizens to leave Saudi Arabia because of new intel indicating
possible terrorist attacks in the region. US officials say
non-essential diplomats will be flown out the country and private
citizens are advised to leave as well. The State Dept says it has
received recent and credible info that extremists are planning further
attacks against US and W interests in Saudi Arabia. In AUS, the Fed
Govt has reissued a standing security warning that Aussies should
defer non-essential travel to Saudi Arabia.

@US welcomes European rejection of bin Laden "truce"
Washington (AFP). The US Secretary of State, Colin Powell, has hailed
Europe's quick rejection of an apparent truce offer by Al Qaeda leader
Osama bin Laden, calling it a clear statement that "we will not be
terrorised by this terrorist."
The rapid rejection of the audio tape the US Central Intel Agency
(CIA) attributed to the Al Qaeda chief "was a very direct and clear
reaction," said Mr Powell.
"I think that the internat'l community realises that they cannot give
in to these kinds of threats, and I hope this will strengthen our
determination to deal with terrorism and especially to do everything
we can to bring Osama bin Laden to justice," Mr Powell said.
The audio cassette attributed to the Al Qaeda leader responsible for
the Sep 11, 2001 attacks on NY and Washington offered peace to
European countries that refrain from aggression towards Muslims and
also pull their troops out of the Muslim world.
It also vowed to avenge Israel's assassination of Sheikh Ahmed Yassin,
founder and spiritual leader of the radical Palestinian movement Hamas.
The tape emerged amid a spate of kidnappings of foreign nat'ls in Iraq
by insurgents apparently seeking to destabilise the US-led occupation
and a bloody rebellion against the coalition forces.
In quick succession, France, Germany, Brit, Spain and Italy, as well
as the 15-member European Union (EU), rejected the offer as a ploy.
"There is no negotiation possible with terrorists," French Pres
Jacques Chirac said. "Terrorism is a barbarous act which attacks
innocent people, which cannot be justified by any reason or any cause."
Brit For Sec Jack Straw said such proposals should be treated "with
the contempt which they deserve."
Mr Straw said Al Qaeda "is a murderous organisation which seeks
impossible objectives by the most violent of means ... I'm afraid that
it is yet another bare-faced attempt to divide the internat'l community."
Incoming Spanish For Min Miguel Angel Moratinos said Spaniards should
"neither listen to, nor pay attention to" the tape.
"Those of us who seek peace, democracy and freedom do not need to
listen or pay attention to him," said Mr Moratinos.
Italian For Min Franco Frattini said it was "absolutely unthinkable
that we could sit around a table for discussions with bin Laden."
German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder said: "Every attempt to divide
European countries in those who supported and those who opposed the
war in Iraq, and to draw the conclusion from that that we would not
act in unison to a common threat, will not work."
European Commission Pres Romano Prodi said there was "no possibility"
of European nations accepting such an offer.
"How could you possibly react to this statement?" he said in Shanghai.
"There is no possibility for a deal under a terrorist threat. It is
completely impossible."
The tape was aired early on Thu by Dubai-based Al-Arabiya TV and
authenticated by the CIA which said: "After conducting a technical
analysis, the CIA assesses the voice on the audiotape ... is likely
[to be] bin Laden."
State Dept rep Richard Boucher said: "This attempt to drive a wedge
among the nations of the West, among the nations who are standing
against terror, should only lead us to strengthen our determination.
"These kind of indiscriminate threats ... not only are falling on deaf
ears but, in fact, have just increased our determination to succeed in
the fight against terror," he said.
A CIA official said the message "was probably recorded in the last
several weeks, given the reference to the death of Yassin.
"We would assess it could be an attempt by bin Laden or Al Qaeda to
drive a wedge between Europe and us, given the content of the message,
and also probably a propaganda ploy to bolster Al Qaeda supporters,"
the CIA official said.
The tape was also authenticated in Cairo by an Egyptian lawyer who
specialises in Islamic groups.
"It is the voice, style and dialect" of bin Laden, Muntasser al-Zayate
said, adding the tape indicated the terror network had had a "change
in position."
Bin Laden "has given the message in the form of a peace offering to
European countries to save face," he said.
The voice on the tape said the offer which will be left open for 3
months, came after opinion polls showed Europeans want peace.
It offered a "reconciliation initiative" to European countries if they
pledged not to be aggressive towards Muslims, "like the American plot
against the big Islamic world."
"It is in the interest of both parties to deprive them of spilling
people's blood for their own interests and in their following of the
White House."
The last purported bin Laden tape was aired by the Doha-based Al-Jazeera
Arabic news channel on Jan 4. The terror chief appeared to refer to
the capture of former Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein on Dec 13, 2003.

@CIA warned of attacks as early as '95
Washington (AP). The CIA warned as early as 1995 that Islamic
extremists were likely to attack US aviation, Washington landmarks or
Wall Street and by 1997 had identified Osama bin Laden as an emerging
threat on US soil, a snr intel official said Thu.
The official took the rare step of disclosing info in the closely held
Nat'l Intel Estimate for those 2 y to counter criticisms in a staff
report released Wed by the independent commission examining pre-Sep 11
intel failures.
That staff report accused the CIA of failing to recognise al-Qaeda as
a formal terrorist organisation until 1999 and mostly regarding bin
Laden as a financier instead of a terrorist leader during much of the 1990s.
But the US intel official, who spoke only on condition of anonymity,
said the 1997 Nat'l Intel Estimate produced by the CIA mentioned bin
Laden by name as an emerging terrorist threat on its 1st page. The
Nat'l Intel Estimate is distributed to the president and snr executive
branch and congressional intel officials.
The 1997 assessment, which remains classified, "identified bin Laden
and his followers and threats they were making and said it might
portend attacks inside the US," the official said.
Philip Zelikow, executive director of the Sep 11 commission,
confirmed the 1997 warning about bin Laden but said it was only 2
sentences long and lacked any strategic analysis on how to address the
threat. "We were well aware of the info and the staff stands by
exactly what it says," he said.
The intel official also said that while the 1995 intel assessment did
not mention bin Laden or al-Qaeda by name, it clearly warned that
Islamic terrorists were intent on striking specific targets inside the
US like those hit on Sep 11, 2001.
The report specifically warned that civil aviation, Washington landmarks
such as the White House and Capitol and buildings on Wall Street were
at the greatest risk of a domestic terror attack by Muslim extremists,
the official said.
Deputy CIA Director John McLaughlin testified Wed that by early 1996
his agency had developed enough concern about bin Laden to create a
special unit to focus on his threat. "We were very focused on this
issue," McLaughlin told the commission.
The commission's report did credit the CIA after 1997 with collecting
vast amounts of intel on bin Laden and al-Qaeda, which resulted in
1000s of individual reports circulated at the highest levels of
govt. These carried titles such as "Bin Laden Threatening to Attack US
Aircraft" in Jun 1998 and "Bin Laden's Interest in Biological and
Radiological Weapons" in Feb 2001.
Despite this intel, the CIA never produced an authoritative summary of
al-Qaeda's involvement in past terrorist attacks, didn't formally recognise
al-Qaeda as a group until 1999 and did not fully appreciate bin
Laden's role as the leader of a growing extremist movement, the
commission said.
"There was no comprehensive estimate of the enemy," the commission
report alleged.
But the snr intel official said the commission report failed to
mention that CIA had produced large numbers of analytical reports on
the growth, capabilities, structure and threats posed by al-Qaeda
throughout the late 1990s and those detailed reports were distributed
to the front lines of terror-fighting agencies.
The CIA most frequently provided these individual and highly detailed
analyses to the White House Counterterrorism Security Group charged
with formulating anti-terrorism policies and responses, the official said.

@Lithuania facing nuclear fall out
Visaginas, Lithuania (BBC). Lithuania has agreed to close its
Chernobyl-style reactors after joining the European Union on 1 May. In
the 3rd of a series of reports from Poland and Lithuania, BBC News
Online looks at how it will keep that promise.
No smoke from a chain reaction Lithuania's Ignalina nuclear plant is
keen to play up its environmental credentials.
A video for visitors cuts between workers on the reactor-room floor
and cows grazing in nearby fields. The sky is streaked by a rainbow.
Get closer to the reactor buildings, however, and it becomes more
evident why the European Union wants to shut down the plant that
recently celebrated its 20th birthday.
The concrete is showing its age and the ruins of a planned 3rd reactor
are still visible after Russia's Chernobyl nuclear disaster brought
construction to a premature halt.
* Controversial
Some environmentalists have called Ignalina a disaster waiting to
happen because it is based on the same design as the Russian plant
that exploded in 1986, belching radioactivity and turning the
countryside into a dead zone.
Had Lithuania not agreed to pull the plug, it probably would not be
among the 10 countries joining the EU on 1 May.
According to the timetable agreed with Brussels, the 1st reactor will
shut at the end of this y, with the 2nd scheduled for closure by 2010.
Shutting down will cost the best part of 1bn euros and the decision to
do so is proving controversial.
* Fear
Lithuania relies on Ignalina for about 80% of its power and many of
the population see it as a key part of economic independence.
Even one reactor can produce enough electricity for domestic use, plus
a healthy surplus for export.
Mr Sevaldin wants people to see nuclear power as clean and safe Viktor
Sevaldin is Ignalina's Russian-born director.
He has run the plant since it started and sees himself as a pioneer of
the technology that helped build it.
Speaking in his cavernous office, his unwillingness to close is evident.
He talks about the safety record and of the dedicated workers who keep
a vigilant eye on every dial and counter.
And although he understands why people are worried, he reckons that it
is due to fear and ignorance rather than sound science.
* Employment
Mr Sevaldin is at pains to explain that since the collapse of the
Soviet Union, security and safety have been constantly upgraded with
the help of the EU and Sweden.
"The irony is that the power plant is at the peak of its safety," he says.
"For sure, you will not get a repeat of Chernobyl here."
Visaginas is trying to attract investment as well as tourists His
biggest concern is the fate of the plant's 3,600 workers, most of whom
live in nearby Visaginas.
The importance of Ignalina on the local economy is evident at the end
of the day shift as a convoy of cars and buses head back into the town
of almost 35,000.
It has been like that since the construction of the town was started
in 1975, well into the Cold War.
The site, in a dense pine forest, was chosen for its proximity to the
railway line that ran from St Petersburg and would bring nuclear fuel.
Today, Visaginas trumpets its green and leafy streets, but as a
visitor it is difficult to shake the idea that the trees were
originally left more to hide the place than to decorate it.
* Devastation
In a 2001 report, the EU said that there were 3 possible future
scenarios for Visaginas.
The clock is ticking for Visaginas The 1st one they called
"regeneration," the 2nd was named "green field" and the 3rd got the
chilling title of "town-zombie".
Locals, many of whom came from Russia to work at the plant, are
convinced that closing it down would kill the city.
There is little other industry in the region that the EU calls
underdeveloped even by Lithuanian standards.
* Rising prices
And the effects may reach further afield.
According to the same report, the "de-commissioning of Ignalina will
have a direct impact on the whole social-economic situation of the country."
2 hr drive to the S in the Lithuanian capital of Vilnius, 30-yo mother
of 2 Viktoria Valickowa is certain of what it will mean.
"Prices will rise and that is a problem," she says from behind her
market stall of amber necklaces and jewellery.
"Pay is not very high here."
* Bright future
A model of safety and efficiency?
The concern among some environmentalists is that Lithuania's
politicians may not press too hard to close down Ignalina when faced
with the stark choice of alienating voters or the EU.
Either that, or they will push to replace the aging Soviet reactors
with a more modern and supposedly safer plant.
That is the outcome that makes most sense to Mr Sevaldin, and he
visibly perks up when explaining the benefits of fission over fossil fuels.
"Nuclear power is a very young form of electricity generation, but it
has made very great achievements to date," he says.
"It is something for the future."
The question facing the EU and Lithuania today is how bright they want
that future to be.

@Chernobyl: 18 y of silence
El Paso (Newspaper Tree). As the 18th anniversary of this global
disaster nears, Elena, a scientist living in the Chernobyl area --
Kiev, Ukraine -- takes us with her on a motorcycle trip through the
region. She tells us the story of what happened and, in photographs,
what is there today.
On the Fri evening of Apr 25, 1986, the reactor crew at Chernobyl-4,
prepared to run a test the next day to see how long the turbines would
keep spinning and producing power if the electrical power supply went
off line. This was a dangerous test, but it had been done before. As a
part of the preparation, they disabled some critical control systems
-- including the automatic shutdown safety mechanisms.
The flow of coolant water dropped and the power began to increase.
When the operator moved to shut down the reactor in its low power
mode, a domino effect of previous errors caused a sharp power surge
that triggered a tremendous steam explosion, which blew the 1000 ton
cap on the nuclear containment vessel to smithereens.
Some of the 211 control rods melted and then a second explosion, the
cause of which is still the subject of disagreement among experts,
threw out fragments of the burning radioactive fuel core and allowed
air to rush in -- igniting the tons of graphite insulating blocks.
Once graphite starts to burn, its almost impossible to extinguish. It
took 9 days and 5000 tons of sand, boron, dolomite, clay and lead
dropped from helicopters to put it out. The radiation was so intense
that all of those brave pilots died.
It was this graphite fire that released most of the radiation into the
atmosphere and troubling spikes in atmospheric radiation were measured
as far away as Sweden -- 1000s of miles away.
The causes of the accident are described as a fateful combination of
human error and imperfect technology.
In keeping with a long tradition of Soviet justice, they imprisoned
all the people who worked on that shift -- regardless of their guilt.
A man who tried to stop the chain reaction in a last desperate attempt
to avoid the meltdown was sentenced to 14 y in prison. He died 3 wk later.
Radiation will stay in the Chernobyl area for the next 48,000 y, but,
humans may begin repopulating the area in about 600 y -- give or take
3 centuries. The experts predict that, by then, the most dangerous
elements will have disappeared -- or will have been sufficiently
diluted into the rest of the world's air, soil, and water. If our govt
can somehow find the money and political will power to finance the
necessary scientific research, perhaps a way will be discovered to
neutralise or clean up the contamination sooner. Otherwise, our
distant ancestors will have to wait until the radiation diminishes to
a tolerable level. If we use the lowest scientific estimate, that will
be 300 y from now. Some scientists say it may be as long as 900 y.
I think it will be 300, but people often accuse me of being an optimist.
I Remember ...
In Ukrainian language (here we don't like to say "the") Chernobyl is
the name of a grass, wormwood (absinth). Here, this word scares the
holy bejesus out of people. Maybe part of the reason for this, among
religious people, is because the Bible mentions wormwood in the book
of the Revelations -- which foretells the end of the world:
REV 8:10 And the 3rd angel sounded, and there fell a great star from
heaven, burning as it were a lamp, and it fell upon the 3rd part of
the rivers, and upon the fountains of waters;
REV 8:11 And the name of the star is called Wormwood: and the 3rd part
of the waters became wormwood; and many men died of the waters,
because they were made bitter.
If I tell someone that I am going to take a relaxing spin through the
"dead zone," the best case response is -- "Are you nuts?"
My dad used to say that people are afraid of a deadly thing which they
can not see, can not feel, and can not smell. Maybe that is because
those words are a good description of death itself.
Dad is a nuclear physicist and he has educated me about many
things. He is much more worried about the speed my bike travels than
about the direction I point it. My trips to Chernobyl are not like a
walk in the park, but the risk can be managed. It is similar to
walking on a high wire with a balancing pole. One end of the pole is
the gamma ray emission intensity and the other end of the pole is the
exposure time. But the wire is also covered with a slippery dust --
and this is the major risk. Inhaling the radioactive dust that is
kicked up by a vehicle or a herd of horses can severely poison your lungs.
My bike trips to Chernobyl require a working understanding of biology
and physics, also knowing geography and ecology of a zone.
Dad and their team have worked in the "dead zone" for last 18 y doing
research about the day it all happened. The rest of the team is
comprised of microbiologists, doctors, botanists and other professions
with long names and many syllables.
I was a schoolgirl back in 1986 and within a few hours of the
accident, dad put all of us on the train to grandma's house. Granny
lives 800 km from here and dad wasn't sure if it was far enough away
to keep us out of reach of the big bad wolf of a nuclear meltdown.
Time to go for a ride.

Cairo. 3 Japanese hostages have been released in Iraq in good health
with Arab television station al-Jazeera showing the trio sitting on a
sofa in a Baghdad office. One of the hostages has been shown in tears
and being comforted by a cleric and others. The station, monitored in
Cairo, says the 2 aid workers and a journalist were turned over to the
Committee of Muslim Scholars in Baghdad, a Sunni Muslim organisation
that mediated their freedom.

Sydney. An Australian aid worker taken hostage for 24 hours in the
Iraqi town of Fallujah has described her capture as terrifying. Donns
Mulhearn has claimed she had been placed in great danger because of
inflammatory comments by PM John Howard. The aid worker from Maitland
in New South Wales, was captured by local Mujahadeen fighters as she
and 3 other foreign aid workers tried to leave the embattled town on
Wed afternoon.

Canberra. FM Alexander Downer has described an Australian woman as
reckless for travelling into an Iraqi war zone, saying the lives of
others could have been put at risk. Australian aid worker Donna Mulhearn,
from Maitland in New South Wales, was captured by local Mujahadeen
fighters as she and 3 other foreign aid workers tried to leave the
Iraqi flash point of Fallujah on Wed. They had been distributing
humanitarian aid to civilians. Mr Downer's told the John Laws radio
program he's puzzled by Ms Mulhearn's decision to travel to Fallujah.

Rome. Italian PM Silvio Berlusconi is facing a difficult choice as
the country recoils in horror at the execution of one of its hostages
in Iraq. He must decide to either concede to the kidnappers' demands
or face a macabre countdown to the killing of the 3 other abducted
Italians. A defiant Berlusconi says the kidnappers have cut short a
life, but they have not damaged the country's values and commitment to peace.

@Release of Italian hostages remains difficult
Baghdad. A Sunni Muslim group which has successfully negotiated the
release of French and Japanese hostages being held in Iraq says the
case of the Italian hostages is more complicated. 3 Italians remain
in custody after a 4th hostage was executed by his captors yesterday.
A rep for the Muslim committee of scholars, Mohammed al Faizi, says
the problem with the Italians was that their country had occupation
forces in Iraq and that they worked as security guards with occupation
forces. Fabrizio Quattrocchi, one of the four, was shot in front of a
camera at point blank range and the film sent to the Al Jazeera
network with a demand for an apology for anti-Muslim remarks made by
the Italian PM and an immediate withdrawal of Italian troops.
The note said the remaining 3 would be executed one by one until that
happened. Mr al Faizi says Islam rejected using innocent people as a
means of extortion and his committee had published an appeal to free
all prisoners who can prove they have no relationship with the forces
of occupation.
=== end 3/4 ===