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- The NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies' Director Says Climate Change Worse than Expected.
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Tom Swift Sr.
Oct 23, 2012, 7:52:01 PM10/23/12
to
-----------
http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/climate-change-is-here--and-worse-than-we-thought/2012/08/03/6ae604c2-dd90-11e1-8e43-4a3c4375504a_story.html
* Climate Change is Here — and Worse Than We Thought *
by James E. Hansen,
Published: August 3, 2012
The Washington Post
(James E. Hansen directs the NASA Goddard Institute for Space
Studies.)
When I testified before the Senate in the hot summer of 1988 , I
warned of the kind of future that climate change would bring to us and
our planet. I painted a grim picture of the consequences of steadily
increasing temperatures, driven by mankind’s use of fossil fuels.
But I have a confession to make: I was too optimistic.
My projections about increasing global temperature have been proved
true. But I failed to fully explore how quickly that average rise
would drive an increase in extreme weather.
In a new analysis of the past six decades of global temperatures,
which will be published Monday, my colleagues and I have revealed a
stunning increase in the frequency of extremely hot summers, with
deeply troubling ramifications for not only our future but also for
our present.
This is not a climate model or a prediction but actual observations of
weather events and temperatures that have happened. Our analysis shows
that it is no longer enough to say that global warming will increase
the likelihood of extreme weather and to repeat the caveat that no
individual weather event can be directly linked to climate change. To
the contrary, our analysis shows that, for the extreme hot weather of
the recent past, there is virtually no explanation other than climate
change.
The deadly European heat wave of 2003, the fiery Russian heat wave of
2010 and catastrophic droughts in Texas and Oklahoma last year can
each be attributed to climate change. And once the data are gathered
in a few weeks’ time, it’s likely that the same will be true for the
extremely hot summer the United States is suffering through right now.
These weather events are not simply an example of what climate change
could bring. They are caused by climate change. The odds that natural
variability created these extremes are minuscule, vanishingly small.
To count on those odds would be like quitting your job and playing the
lottery every morning to pay the bills.
Twenty-four years ago, I introduced the concept of “climate dice” to
help distinguish the long-term trend of climate change from the
natural variability of day-to-day weather. Some summers are hot, some
cool. Some winters brutal, some mild. That’s natural variability.
But as the climate warms, natural variability is altered, too. In a
normal climate without global warming, two sides of the die would
represent cooler-than-normal weather, two sides would be normal
weather, and two sides would be warmer-than-normal weather. Rolling
the die again and again, or season after season, you would get an
equal variation of weather over time.
But loading the die with a warming climate changes the odds. You end
up with only one side cooler than normal, one side average, and four
sides warmer than normal. Even with climate change, you will
occasionally see cooler-than-normal summers or a typically cold
winter. Don’t let that fool you.
Our new peer-reviewed study, published by the National Academy of
Sciences, makes clear that while average global temperature has been
steadily rising due to a warming climate (up about 1.5 degrees
Fahrenheit in the past century), the extremes are actually becoming
much more frequent and more intense worldwide.
When we plotted the world’s changing temperatures on a bell curve, the
extremes of unusually cool and, even more, the extremes of unusually
hot are being altered so they are becoming both more common and more
severe.
The change is so dramatic that one face of the die must now represent
extreme weather to illustrate the greater frequency of extremely hot
weather events.
Such events used to be exceedingly rare. Extremely hot temperatures
covered about 0.1 percent to 0.2 percent of the globe in the base
period of our study, from 1951 to 1980. In the last three decades,
while the average temperature has slowly risen, the extremes have
soared and now cover about 10 percent of the globe.
This is the world we have changed, and now we have to live in it — the
world that caused the 2003 heat wave in Europe that killed more than
50,000 people and the 2011 drought in Texas that caused more than $5
billion in damage. Such events, our data show, will become even more
frequent and more severe.
There is still time to act and avoid a worsening climate, but we are
wasting precious time. We can solve the challenge of climate change
with a gradually rising fee on carbon collected from fossil-fuel
companies, with 100 percent of the money rebated to all legal
residents on a per capita basis. This would stimulate innovations and
create a robust clean-energy economy with millions of new jobs. It is
a simple, honest and effective solution.
The future is now. And it is hot.
-----------
http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/climate-change-is-here--and-worse-than-we-thought/2012/08/03/6ae604c2-dd90-11e1-8e43-4a3c4375504a_story.html
* Climate Change is Here — and Worse Than We Thought *
by James E. Hansen,
Published: August 3, 2012
The Washington Post
(James E. Hansen directs the NASA Goddard Institute for Space
Studies.)
When I testified before the Senate in the hot summer of 1988 , I
warned of the kind of future that climate change would bring to us and
our planet. I painted a grim picture of the consequences of steadily
increasing temperatures, driven by mankind’s use of fossil fuels.
But I have a confession to make: I was too optimistic.
My projections about increasing global temperature have been proved
true. But I failed to fully explore how quickly that average rise
would drive an increase in extreme weather.
In a new analysis of the past six decades of global temperatures,
which will be published Monday, my colleagues and I have revealed a
stunning increase in the frequency of extremely hot summers, with
deeply troubling ramifications for not only our future but also for
our present.
This is not a climate model or a prediction but actual observations of
weather events and temperatures that have happened. Our analysis shows
that it is no longer enough to say that global warming will increase
the likelihood of extreme weather and to repeat the caveat that no
individual weather event can be directly linked to climate change. To
the contrary, our analysis shows that, for the extreme hot weather of
the recent past, there is virtually no explanation other than climate
change.
The deadly European heat wave of 2003, the fiery Russian heat wave of
2010 and catastrophic droughts in Texas and Oklahoma last year can
each be attributed to climate change. And once the data are gathered
in a few weeks’ time, it’s likely that the same will be true for the
extremely hot summer the United States is suffering through right now.
These weather events are not simply an example of what climate change
could bring. They are caused by climate change. The odds that natural
variability created these extremes are minuscule, vanishingly small.
To count on those odds would be like quitting your job and playing the
lottery every morning to pay the bills.
Twenty-four years ago, I introduced the concept of “climate dice” to
help distinguish the long-term trend of climate change from the
natural variability of day-to-day weather. Some summers are hot, some
cool. Some winters brutal, some mild. That’s natural variability.
But as the climate warms, natural variability is altered, too. In a
normal climate without global warming, two sides of the die would
represent cooler-than-normal weather, two sides would be normal
weather, and two sides would be warmer-than-normal weather. Rolling
the die again and again, or season after season, you would get an
equal variation of weather over time.
But loading the die with a warming climate changes the odds. You end
up with only one side cooler than normal, one side average, and four
sides warmer than normal. Even with climate change, you will
occasionally see cooler-than-normal summers or a typically cold
winter. Don’t let that fool you.
Our new peer-reviewed study, published by the National Academy of
Sciences, makes clear that while average global temperature has been
steadily rising due to a warming climate (up about 1.5 degrees
Fahrenheit in the past century), the extremes are actually becoming
much more frequent and more intense worldwide.
When we plotted the world’s changing temperatures on a bell curve, the
extremes of unusually cool and, even more, the extremes of unusually
hot are being altered so they are becoming both more common and more
severe.
The change is so dramatic that one face of the die must now represent
extreme weather to illustrate the greater frequency of extremely hot
weather events.
Such events used to be exceedingly rare. Extremely hot temperatures
covered about 0.1 percent to 0.2 percent of the globe in the base
period of our study, from 1951 to 1980. In the last three decades,
while the average temperature has slowly risen, the extremes have
soared and now cover about 10 percent of the globe.
This is the world we have changed, and now we have to live in it — the
world that caused the 2003 heat wave in Europe that killed more than
50,000 people and the 2011 drought in Texas that caused more than $5
billion in damage. Such events, our data show, will become even more
frequent and more severe.
There is still time to act and avoid a worsening climate, but we are
wasting precious time. We can solve the challenge of climate change
with a gradually rising fee on carbon collected from fossil-fuel
companies, with 100 percent of the money rebated to all legal
residents on a per capita basis. This would stimulate innovations and
create a robust clean-energy economy with millions of new jobs. It is
a simple, honest and effective solution.
The future is now. And it is hot.
-----------
Tom Swift Sr.
Oct 23, 2012, 8:57:10 PM10/23/12
to
On Oct 23, 6:26 pm, Jaime Arlen Fredrick <jaimefredr...@idg.net>
wrote:
> LIAR!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Who exactly are you calling a "LIAR!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!", Bob Milby
Jr., aka Patriot Games, aka Buster Norris, aka 1000s of sockpuppets
(nominated for alt.usenet.kook's K00K of the Month Award for September
2012)???
All I did was post this article by James E. Hansen which started this
subject. I did NOT comment in anyway on it, for or against. So how
can I be lying in that post when I *never* personally wrote anything
in it???
Are you saying that James E. Hansen, who directs the NASA Goddard
Institute for Space Studies, is a "LIAR!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!" because
he stated that Climate Change is already here — and it is worse than
we thought???
What evidence do you have that Hansen is "LYING!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!",
Junior??? Please provide citations that proves this about James
Hansen.
Are you just upset, Games, because here is an well-educated,
sucessful, respected scientist, the director of a major, United States
scientific center, who basically is saying your "Global Butt Warming"
denialism is bullshit???
This time, Junior, DON'T avoid answering the question or addressing
the topic at hand by posting some of your out-of-date, cut-and-paste,
ranting and raving spam. Answer my question!
Give us citations to evidence that proves Hansen is
"LYING!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!". Can't you do that???
Hmm, Bobby, aka Games, aka Buster, aka sockpuppets???
-----
-----
Please Note:
This post will, in select newsgroups, now be follow by an out-of-date,
cut-and-paste, SHRIEKING ranting and raving by Bob Milby Jr., aka
Patriot Games, aka Buster Norris, aka 1000s of sockpuppets (nominated
for alt.usenet.kook's K00K of the Month Award for September 2012).
We hope to return you to more rational posting after this brief,
psychotic interuption.
------
------
wrote:
> LIAR!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Who exactly are you calling a "LIAR!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!", Bob Milby
Jr., aka Patriot Games, aka Buster Norris, aka 1000s of sockpuppets
(nominated for alt.usenet.kook's K00K of the Month Award for September
2012)???
All I did was post this article by James E. Hansen which started this
subject. I did NOT comment in anyway on it, for or against. So how
can I be lying in that post when I *never* personally wrote anything
in it???
Are you saying that James E. Hansen, who directs the NASA Goddard
Institute for Space Studies, is a "LIAR!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!" because
he stated that Climate Change is already here — and it is worse than
we thought???
What evidence do you have that Hansen is "LYING!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!",
Junior??? Please provide citations that proves this about James
Hansen.
Are you just upset, Games, because here is an well-educated,
sucessful, respected scientist, the director of a major, United States
scientific center, who basically is saying your "Global Butt Warming"
denialism is bullshit???
This time, Junior, DON'T avoid answering the question or addressing
the topic at hand by posting some of your out-of-date, cut-and-paste,
ranting and raving spam. Answer my question!
Give us citations to evidence that proves Hansen is
"LYING!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!". Can't you do that???
Hmm, Bobby, aka Games, aka Buster, aka sockpuppets???
-----
-----
Please Note:
This post will, in select newsgroups, now be follow by an out-of-date,
cut-and-paste, SHRIEKING ranting and raving by Bob Milby Jr., aka
Patriot Games, aka Buster Norris, aka 1000s of sockpuppets (nominated
for alt.usenet.kook's K00K of the Month Award for September 2012).
We hope to return you to more rational posting after this brief,
psychotic interuption.
------
------
steve
Nov 7, 2012, 10:53:13 AM11/7/12
to
Hello everyone,
it should be better to deploy the outsourcing of the wave smoothly before
analyzing the weather;
Therefore you can find some ideas at http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Water_quality;
how do you elaborate the weather administration?
Thanks to the weather , you can find some ideas at:
http://www.reeldown.com/r/Upper-TX-Forecasts/N-Gulf
http://www.reeldown.com/r/Wave-Model/Western-North-Atlantic
http://www.spanishdict.com/translate/break
http://agaymard.free.fr/galerie/index.php%3F/tags/175-contre_jour
http://www.tdotwire.com/blogs/most-commented/%3Fp%3D2
http://www.undl.org/unlsys/uw/unlkb.htm
http://beffrey2.yuku.com/forums/87
http://lists.repoze.org/pipermail/repoze-checkins/2008-September/001598.html
http://wenku.baidu.com/view/79edc549e45c3b3567ec8b83
tchao
it should be better to deploy the outsourcing of the wave smoothly before
analyzing the weather;
Therefore you can find some ideas at http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Water_quality;
how do you elaborate the weather administration?
Thanks to the weather , you can find some ideas at:
http://www.reeldown.com/r/Upper-TX-Forecasts/N-Gulf
http://www.reeldown.com/r/Wave-Model/Western-North-Atlantic
http://www.spanishdict.com/translate/break
http://agaymard.free.fr/galerie/index.php%3F/tags/175-contre_jour
http://www.tdotwire.com/blogs/most-commented/%3Fp%3D2
http://www.undl.org/unlsys/uw/unlkb.htm
http://beffrey2.yuku.com/forums/87
http://lists.repoze.org/pipermail/repoze-checkins/2008-September/001598.html
http://wenku.baidu.com/view/79edc549e45c3b3567ec8b83
tchao
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