Re: The truth, for those who can handle that. WAS: Observational data do not support the sea level rise scenario
o no b
"Roger Coppock" <rcop...@adnc.com> wrote in message
news:beb3f237-757f-4288...@r24g2000yqd.googlegroups.com...
On Nov 9, 10:41 am, "Falcon" <fal...@invalid.net> wrote:
To cause the current warming, an increase of ...
======================================
... URANISATION over the last century
is needed.
Poor Station Location Causes Warm Temperature Bias
Roger Pielke Sr
February 19 2008
Photographic Documentation of Poor Sitings - Part III From Our JGR Paper
Part I and II of this series of weblogs, discussed the serious limited value
of the use of a global average surface temperature anomaly to diagnose the
global radiative imbalance (i.e., global climate heat system changes), and
of a warm bias in the diagnosis of a global average surface temperature
trend when the minimum temperatures are used in its construction.
In Part III, we discuss yet another serious issue that we raised in our
paper
Pielke Sr., R.A., C. Davey, D. Niyogi, S. Fall, J. Steinweg-Woods, K.
Hubbard, X. Lin, M. Cai, Y.-K. Lim, H. Li, J. Nielsen-Gammon, K. Gallo, R.
Hale, R. Mahmood, S. Foster, R.T. McNider, and P. Blanken, 2007: Unresolved
issues with the assessment of multi-decadal global land surface temperature
trends. J. Geophys. Res., 112, D24S08, doi:10.1029/2006JD008229,
where we report,
Major problems with the microclimate exposure of a subset of surface
Historical Climate Network (HCN) sites have been photographed Easterling et
al. 1996; Davey and Pielke 2005]. The temperature instruments that are used
in the HCN are often sited close to buildings, under trees, and near other
local influences on the microclimate. These microclimate influences also
change over time."
The issue of the spatial and temporal representation of the temperature data
that is collected is so fundamental that it is a scandal for any climate
assessment that constructs a global average surface temperature to ignore
this issue.
Anthony Watts has, therefore, provided us a critically important study to
document these surface temperature measurement sites, since the US
government agency tasked with this responsibility (the National Climate Data
Center; NCDC) has refused to provide this photographic documentation,
despite information that they actually have accomplished this task (the
implication is that they are too embarrassed to show them to the public).
The extensive photographic library already completed under the direction of
Anthony Watts with his volunteers can be accessed at "Weather Stations".
This a rich source of information, and I urge readers of Climate Science to
access his website.
Two further excellent examples of further analysis of the issue of poor
station exposure can be read at
Mahmood, Rezaul , Stuart A. Foster, and David Logan, 2006: The Geoprofile
metadata, exposure of instruments, and measurement bias in climatic record
revisited International Journal of Climatology
and
Brooks, Ashley Victoria. M.S., Purdue University, May, 2007. Assessment of
the Spatiotemporal Impacts of Land Use Land Cover Change on the Historical
Climate Network Temperature Trends in Indiana. Major Professors: Dev Niyogi
and Michael Baldwin.
The message from these analyses is that the use of the surface temperature
record from such observation sites to construct regional-, zonal- and
global- averages introduces a bias (which is expected to be a significant
warm bias) of an unknown magnitude. That this issue has not been questioned
in the climate assessments nor by most of the media reports of the
assessments is a scandal.
The conclusions we have reached with respect to the poor siting of the
surface temperature measurement sites, for use in multi-decadal trend
assessments, include:
the poorly sited locations can not be "corrected" by using nearby better
sited locations in order to provide added sources of independent data; see
Pielke Sr., R.A. J. Nielsen-Gammon, C. Davey, J. Angel, O. Bliss, N.
Doesken, M. Cai., S. Fall, D. Niyogi, K. Gallo, R. Hale, K.G. Hubbard, X.
Lin, H. Li, and S. Raman, 2007: Documentation of uncertainties and biases
associated with surface temperature measurement sites for climate change
assessment. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 88:6, 913-928., where we concluded
that"The use of temperature data from poorly sited stations can lead to a
false sense of confidence in the robustness of multidecadal surface air
temperature trend assessments".
The serious problem with poor sited surface temperature stations is a
worldwide problem, based on our sampling so far (e.g., see for Mongolia and
see for a range of locations around the globe).
The World Meteorological Organization and the National Climate Date Center
have been derelict in obtaining photographic documentation of these
observing sites.
Readers of Climate Science are encouraged to photograph the surface
temperature sites in their country of residence, that are used to construct
the land based contribution to the global average surface temperature
anomalies, and send to Anthony Watts in be included in his very important
(and essential) archiving of this information (his website for this is Watts
Up With That and at Anthony Watt's Searchable Online Data Base ).
Warmest Regards
Bon z0
"It is a remarkable fact that despite the worldwide expenditure of perhaps
US$50 billion since 1990, and the efforts of tens of thousands of scientists
worldwide, no human climate signal has yet been detected that is distinct
from natural variation."
Bob Carter, Research Professor of Geology, James Cook University, Townsville