Public-Interest and Level-of-Evidence Considerations in Cold Fusion Public Policy
kiloVolts
Title:
Public-Interest and Level-of-Evidence Considerations in Cold Fusion Public
Policy
Authors:
Grinshaw, Thomas
Publication:
American Physical Society, 2008 APS March Meeting, March 10-14, 2008,
abstract #A17.002
Publication Date:
03/2008
Origin:
APS
Bibliographic Code:
2008APS..MARA17002G
Abstract
Cold fusion (CF) protagonists and antagonists would no doubt agree that
scientific processes have been challenged in the CF case. The public
interest in CF turns on two questions: What are the potential benefits? What
is the probability that CF is ``real''? Potential benefits have been agreed
on since CF announcement in 1989. The probability of CF reality may be
assessed based on level of evidence (LoE): preponderance of evidence (PoE);
clear and convincing evidence (CCE); and beyond a reasonable doubt (BRD).
PoE, from civil law, indicates a probability of 50% or higher. BRD, from
criminal law, has a probability approaching 90%. CCE, in between, thus has a
70-75% probability. CF experimental evidence, based on: 1) initial
affirmations, 2) the large number of corroborations since marginalization,
and 3) particularly demonstrative experiments, reasonably indicates at least
a PoE level of evidence for excess heat. A case can also be made for a CCE
(but probably not for a BRD) LoE. In either the PoE or CCE scenario a clear
need is demonstrated for change in policy toward CR, given its potential
benefits to humanity.