Estimating Nanotech Dev. Sched.
Alan Lovejoy
In article <Apr.17.01.21....@athos.rutgers.edu> corpane!spa...@e.ms.uky.edu (John Sparks) writes:
>Well there ya go guys, if you can have atomic sized diodes and transistors,
>it should be a straight shot from there to nano assemblers, computers,
>etc.
Well, it's certainly getting close to a situation where there is direct,
irrefutable experimental evidence that we humans can build the necessary
molecular machines to more or less fullfil Dr. Drexler's vision of
nanotechnology as presented in "Engines Of Creation."
How long before any of this is commercialized is still a highly debatable
question. Since I'm an engineer, and estimating projects is part of my
job, I'll offer my opinion on this: 15-20 years from now, assemblers and
nanocomputers will be commercial products (probably under government
access restrictions, however). It's about at this time (20-30 years
from now) that "gray goo" will first become possible by deliberate design.
Any such goo would probably be rather simplistic and unsophisticated at this
point.
Things like cell repair machines and such will probably take another 20-30
years after that (40-60 years from now) before "FDA" (or whatever its
equivalent at the time) approval. Of course, really effective AI molecular
engineering systems could shorten this time considerably. Such systems are
just as much an algorithmic/mathematical/theoretical problem as they are
a hardware problem. We'll probably have the necessary hardware for such
systems in 25-40 years; when the software will be ready...(hey, it takes
25 years to educate an engineer, you know).
I consider these estimates to be fairly conservative; they take into account
the likely obstacles--including the entirely unexpected--which development of
this technology is likely to encounter. Things may happen as much as twice
as fast as these estimates, and I wouldn't be all that surprised.
__ >>> Disclaimer: I do not speak for AT&T Paradyne, they do not speak for me!
Alan Lovejoy | "Do not go gentle into that good night,
AT&T Paradyne | Old age should burn and rave at the close of the day;
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