"Thomas Womack" <
two...@chiark.greenend.org.uk> wrote in message
news:Lfd*-d...@news.chiark.greenend.org.uk...
> a) You pointed out the existence of the Internet not very far away in
> this very thread; there is at the very least a substantial vocal
> subgroup of Iranians who explain what they want clearly and
> repeatedly
>
> b) Iran's elections are at an interesting position between
> free-and-fair and laughable; if you want to know what Iranians
> want, the results of the 2009 election and subsequent protests
> are instructive.
Right, I think the people of Iran have come to hate their government.
But they seem to still fear it. What bothers me is that in Iraq it seems
the invasion cost so many lives since we went in pretty much alone
and without much international support. Too soon! And then
in Syria, so many have died since the west failed to help finish off
Assad when the people rose up. Too late!
I think all these uprisings are emphasizing the need to have an
international consensus on when it's needed and appropriate
to move against a dangerous dictator. I think in Egypt, Libya
and Syria the actions of the people made it clear the dictators
needed to go, and the world should pool their rescues to
respond in an appropriate and timely way.
And I think the signal to the world has to come from the
people of that country by their actions. So there's no
arguing about the right and wrong of the situation.
>
> But after the debacle of 1953 and the other debacle of 1979, there is
> absolutely no hope that any group perceivable as being the minions of
> the US can intervene sanely to back an anti-government side in Iran
> without simply getting the anti-government side's members imprisoned
> and beaten. Nor for ethnic reasons can a predominantly-Arab group,
> which any large-enough regional consortium would be, get involved.
I agree, but what if after Israel or the US completed a bombing campaign
against the nuclear facilities, the Iranian people suddenly rose up and
started protesting for democracy in a massive way, and the Iranian govt
responded as Assad has?
We'd still have China and Russia saying no to anything to cover their
own asses down the road, so the UN is worthless in such a situation.
The pro-democracy powers throughout the world should work out
a formula for when and how to respond. So the opportunity for change
isn't missed, or botched. So the people of that nation don't pay the
price like in Syria or Iraq.
>
> I think we just have to leave it; if an Iranian rebel group asks for
> UN peacekeepers the UN can probably scare up a group from East Asia,
> South America and Bangladesh, and with a really competent US secretary
> of state then US technical assistance could be provided sufficiently
> subtly and deniably.
I don't think the US should invade Iran at all, or go it alone with any
response. But it's been too ad hoc with the Arab Spring so far, the
west can do much better. This is a crucial time in history for the
spread of democracy, imo.
There are many more falling dictators in our near future.
And It's fascinating to see the US military changing it's
posture post 9/11 for just that kind of future. This
US Navy commercial is running all the time now
I see it several times a day, and it speaks volumes
about the kind of future the US foresees.
Towards the sounds of Chaos
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZjgiDovT_bE
And this commercial, in a backhanded way, reminds
the world who owns the high sea~ I love this one
100 Percent
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EEtZ5r0CIYI
If the west comes together and responds in an credible
way, the people of all those other nations can become
more inspired and confident to act.
But if Syria is the example, instead of Egypt or Libya, the
dictators might hang around far longer.
>
> Tom