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Message from discussion President Obama taking a commanding lead in the Polls!
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Keith W  
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 More options Sep 30 2012, 8:11 am
Newsgroups: sci.military.naval
From: "Keith W" <keithnospoofsple...@demon.co.uk>
Date: Sun, 30 Sep 2012 13:11:54 +0100
Local: Sun, Sep 30 2012 8:11 am
Subject: Re: President Obama taking a commanding lead in the Polls!
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Jeffrey Hamilton wrote:
> Keith W wrote:
>> Bill wrote:
>>> On Fri, 28 Sep 2012 22:19:39 +0100, "Keith W"
>>> <keithnospoofsple...@demon.co.uk> wrote:

>>>> Andrew Swallow wrote:
>>>>> On 28/09/2012 20:11, Bill wrote:

>>>>> Before we invade Iran, is there any country that is an immediate
>>>>> danger to the USA or Britain?

>>>>> Andrew Swallow

>>>> Invading Iran would be a seriously bad idea.

>>>> Its a big country, the size France, Germany , Britain and
>>>> Spain combined with a population of over 70 million
>>>> and the opponents of the current regime would fight
>>>> just as hard against any invader as the most fanatical supporter
>>>> .
>>>> They have a land border through which they can get supplies
>>>> and the capability to produce their own weapons from
>>>> rifles through to IRBM's

>>> They don't need invading.

>>> Just destroy the current government and their nuclear infrastructure
>>> and withdraw leaving then inevitable upheaval  to produce a more
>>> amenable government..

>> I am not saying that no military action is possible, just
>> that physical invasion would be a catastrophic mistake.
>> The danger of simply destroying the existing government
>> is that there is no real credible alternative right now,

> I believe William has a strong point !

> I do understand what you are saying, Keith, but would it be worse
> than it is now ?

> It appears to me that the populace would enjoy freedom, from the
> Mullahs rule.

> In any event how do you see it unfolding, Keith ? And yes, I *am*
> interested in _your_ opinion !

Solving the Iranian problem will be long and difficult and I am
far from qialified to do so. The demographic situation in Iran
does not favour the current regime. Unlike the regional Arab
states it has a large pool of educated young people and
the female population are MUCH more liberated than the
situation in the Arab countries, indeed there are more female
graduates than male. The widespread use of mobile phones
means the Mullahs have a hard time controlling the spread of news.

The latest act of the gerontocracy that rules Iran which aims
to restrict female rights will almost certainly backfire in a
big way. Its hard to maintain theocratic control when the
mothers of your children are your worst enemies.

Combine this with an unempoyment rate of more than 20%
for those under 30 and you have created ideal conditions
for a youth protest movement. This movement is centred
around intellectual centres such as the Universities not
mosques which is one reason the Ayatollah's distrust it so much.

That said there is deep distrust of western motives throughout
the Iranian population. Previous western intervention has had
a disastrous long term effect, it was the West that suppressed
the popular Mosaddegh with the CIA and British Secret Service
arranging the coup that overthrew him. The imposition of the
Shah and western support for his tyrannical rule is still fresh
in may peoples memories.

For that reason any attempt by the west to impose a
solution WILL fail and even overt support would likely
be the kiss of death for any emerging opposition.

In my humble opinion the best policy is containment which means
not allowing Iran to develop nuclear weapons if at all possible
and leaving the Iranian people to make their own decisions.

Keith


 
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