This year, on the second anniversary of the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear
disaster, the author would like to pose the following questions, and
invite the reader to do the same.
The Fukushima Disaster is old news…right?
Nuclear power plants are not dirty bombs…right?
Fukushima is no Chernobyl…right?
Radiation from Fukushima Daiichi didn’t affect any other nations…
right?
To date, all attempts to model or accurately measure the core damage
and radiation releases from the crippled Fukushima Daiichi nuclear
power plant in the wake of the March 11th earthquake and tsunami have
proved incomplete, unreliable, and admittedly unable to accurately
replicate the sequence of events, largely due to the lack of
information available.[1] Two years after the onset of the nuclear
disaster, all efforts put forward by the nuclear industry around the
world have proved inadequate to stem the tide of public opinion and
active opposition to nuclear power.
Still, much has been said about the radioactive releases from
Fukushima Daiichi, but one thing remains certain; anyone who attempts
to make definitive statements as to minimize the size or scale of the
release can do no better than to offer some rudimentary stab at the
issue, as the data released to date is woefully insufficient. What
little recorded data has been published and peer reviewed has yielded
some startling results, which may infer some insight into why so many
pro-nuclear voices have been so quick and adamant in their downplaying
of the disaster.
Fukushima Daiichi is still in the ‘Early Stages’ of the disaster
In December of 2011, the Japanese government declared the end to the
immediate crisis at Fukushima Daiichi, stating that the reactors had
reached a state of “cold shutdown”. This was an abominable attempt
to persuade the world that the Fukushima disaster was mitigated,
controlled, and in the past.
The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has published Protective
Action Guidelines (PAGs), which detail the planned response to any
nuclear disaster in the United States. According to PAGs, every
disaster is broken into three phases, the early stage, the
intermediate stage, and the late stages.
Prior to moving from the early stage to any subsequent stages, a
incomplete and limited checklist of required items must be cleared.
To move from the early stage to the intermediate stage, one merely
needs to do two things, first control the source release, and lastly
secure the source.
At Fukushima Daiichi, workers have been unable to locate any of the
three melted cores, and as of March 2013, there are still over 10
million becquerels per hour[2], or 240 million becquerels per day, of
radioactive cesium being released from the reactors.
Now, TEPCO attempts to minimize these numbers by pointing out that the
cesium release from the crippled Fukushima Daiichi reactors was about
800 trillion becquerels per hour right after the disaster, but the
fact remains, that a 10 million becquerel release would be a nuclear
disaster in itself at any nuclear facility not named Fukushima Daiichi
or operated by TEPCO.
Considering the fact that workers have failed to locate three out of
three melted cores, and have also failed to control source releases,
according to EPA PAGs, the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster is still
in the ‘Early Stage’.
Radiation releases from commercial reactors greater than nuclear
weapons
It has been common for pro-nuclear advocates to downplay concerns
about the torrid history between the nuclear industry and military
factions, the safety of nuclear power plants, or the unexpected
hydrogen explosions at Fukushima Daiichi, often with the defense that
commercial facilities are not capable of generating an explosion
comparable with a nuclear bomb.
Shortly after the explosion at the Unit 2 reactor early in the
morning, IAEA Director General Yukio Amano told reporters from The
Associated Press, “There is no longer [a] chain reaction of nuclear
material. Reactor vessels and primary containment vessels … stay
intact. The release of radioactivity is limited.”[3] But onsite,
radiation levels were so high, that they even lead NRC officials on
the other side of the ocean to quickly identify that nuclear fuel was
in the environment outside of the buildings.[4]
The Fukushima nuclear disaster emphatically proved that they do not
have to, and still have potential for far worse releases and fallout
than the one dropped in Hiroshima. In August 2011, main stream news
reports ran articles relating the Cesium 137 release from Fukushima
Daiichi to the Hiroshima style nuclear bomb. The comparison only
included the levels of cesium-137 released into the atmosphere during
the first four days of the nuclear disaster, limiting the amount of
radiation the crippled reactors emitted to 15,000 terabecquerels.
Subsequent analysis would increase the estimated release from
Fukushima exponentially, but the press never revisited the
comparison. More recent studies have estimated that some 27.1 PBq of
Cs-137 was released at Fukushima Daiichi into the ocean just during
the first four months of the disaster. Additionally, studies have
placed the aerial release between 36.6 PBq and 66 PBq for the first
week of the disaster. Conservatively adding the 27.1 PBq aqueous
release with the 36.6 PBq aerial release yields a 63.7 PBq combined Cs
137 release.
The nuclear bomb dropped on Hiroshima released 89 terabecquerels of
Cesium 137 for comparison.[5] Here is the stunner; there are 1,000
terabecquerels in every petabecquerel. This means every petabecquerel
of cesium-137 that escaped from the Fukushima Daiichi reactors was
more than the amount released in 100 Hiroshima bombs. This means that
even severely limiting the data to only the estimated amounts of
Cesium-137 during the first week of aerial release and first four
months of aqueous release, the total equaled the same amount which
would be released by over 6,350 Hiroshima nuclear bombs.
Comparing Fukushima source to Chernobyl
It has also been popular for pro-nuclear lobbyists to promote the idea
that the release at Fukushima Daiichi was not equal to or greater than
Chernobyl, and even more, that the potential source release was never
on a scale comparable to the 1986 Soviet nuclear disaster.
At Chernobyl, the radiation source was confined to the inventory of
one reactor, and by using data provided by a 2000 UNSCEAR report to
establish the core source at Chernobyl, we can compare it to the
Fukushima Daiichi source term as provided in the Stohl report released
in 2012.
Chernobyl Cesium 137 Inventory and Release
Cesium 137
Total Inventory 290 PBq 2.9 x 1017
30% of Inventory Released 85 PBq 8.5 x 1016
Fukushima Daiichi Cesium 137 Inventory
Cesium 137 Inventory in Reactor Cores
Unit 1 240 PBq 2.4 x 1017 82.7 % of Chernobyl
Unit 2 259 PBq 2.59 x 1017 89.3% of Chernobyl
Unit 3 259 PBq 2.59 x 1017 89.3% of Chernobyl
Total Cesium Inventory in Units 1 – 3 758 PBq 7.58 x 1017 > 260% of
Chernobyl
Cesium 137 Inventory in Spent Fuel Pools
Unit 1 221 PBq 2.21 x 1017 76.2% of Chernobyl
Unit 2 449 PBq 4.49 x 1017 > 150% of Chernobyl
Unit 3 396 PBq 3.96 x 1017 > 135% of Chernobyl
Unit 4 1,110 PBq 1.11 x 1018 > 380% of Chernobyl
Total 2,176 PBq 2.17 x 1018 > 750% of Chernobyl
Combined Cesium 137 Inventory
Unit 1 461 PBq 4.61 x 1017 > 1,000% greater than Chernobyl
Unit 2 708 PBq 7.08 x 1017 > 240% greater than . Chernobyl
Unit 3 655 PBq 6.55 x 1017 > 225% greater than Chernobyl
Unit 4 1,110 PBq 1.11 x 1018 > 380% greater than Chernobyl
Reactors and SFPs 2,934 PBq 2.93 x 1018 > 1,000% greater than
Chernobyl
This data shows the Cesium 137 inventory in the reactors of Units 1
through 3 were each over 80% of the total inventory at Chernobyl.
Additionally, the cesium inventory in the reactors at Fukushima
Daiichi was only one-quarter of the total amount contained on-site.
Each of the spent fuel pools in Units 2 through 4, were at least 150%
the size of Chernobyl. Unit 4 contained not only a full spent fuel
pool, but additionally held a full core offload, making its total
inventory nearly 4 times that of Chernobyl alone.
Adding up all of the Cesium 137 inventory in the spent fuel pools
combined, the total (2,934 PBq) was the equivalent of over ten
Chernobyls (290 PBq), even without the reactor inventories added in to
the sum.
Releases from on-going nuclear disasters have far reaching effects
Since the first early hours of the disaster, TEPCO has been misleading
and downright lying to workers on-site and locals around the nuclear
power plant, misleading officials in Tokyo and attempting to
manipulate investigations, and destroying the faith citizens around
the globe in their own governments and nuclear power plant
operators. Officials knew they had to do something, there were over
100,000 Americans known to be in Japan, and 1,300 of them lived in the
areas most affected by the earthquake and tsunami and were now in the
reach of the nuclear disaster.[6]
Anyone who made any public statements about the situation at Fukushima
Daiichi which did not help the public to feel calm and reassured were
deflected with the “we’ll review for scientific validity” defense.[7]
Even worse than downplaying the concerns about nuclear safety, the
government and the industry proactively worked hand in hand to
convince and assure the public that the radioactive releases from
Fukushima Daiichi were never above negligible levels at international
recording stations, let alone a threat to other nations around the
world.
On Thursday, March 17th, 2011, President Barack Obama made his first
public statement on the nuclear disaster, sternly advising Americans
not to worry. ”I want to be very clear,” he said at the White House.
“We do not expect harmful levels of radiation to reach the West Coast,
Hawaii, Alaska or U.S. territories in the Pacific.”[8]
The Nuclear Regulatory Commission said, “We do not expect to see
radiation at harmful levels reaching the U.S. from damaged Japanese
nuclear power plants”, and the Environmental Protection Agency and
other federal bodies parroted this statement for months in nearly
every press release related to the on-going crisis and radiation
releases from the plant. Officials from the Nuclear Regulatory
Commission would later add that Americans should not be concerned
about the spread of radiation to the West Coast of the United States
and Hawaii, because even if a nuclear meltdown were to occur,
releasing significant amounts of radiation, it would take at least six
to 10 days to reach the West Coast.
“These releases from the plant, because they’re not elevated, because
they’re not getting up high in the atmosphere, they won’t travel very
far,” said Kathryn Higley, director of the department of nuclear
engineering at Oregon State University. “There are so many factors in
our favor. Rain will knock it down. There are 5,000 miles of ocean
between us and Japan. It will be diluted, it will mix with sea spray,
long before it gets remotely close to us.” Higley admitted that she
had spent copious amounts of time in the early days responding to the
public outcry and urging calm. She told ABC news, “We have monitoring
capability here in the U.S. that is extraordinarily sensitive. We can
detect radiation that is like a hundred-thousandth of what you get
from a regular X-ray, and we don’t expect to see even that. For the
stuff to travel, it has to be picked up by the wind,” she said,
“higher-level winds that have global distribution. And that’s just not
happening. This is a little like a campfire — the smoke is all near
the ground.”
Edward Morse, a nuclear engineer at the University of California,
Berkeley, said in an e-mail to ABC News. “The levels will not be
threatening to life and health but they will be observable.”
“If any radiation were to make it here, it would be merely background
levels,” said Jere Jenkins, the director of Radiation Laboratories at
Purdue University in West Lafayette, Ind. “Nothing for people on the
West Coast or people in the United States to be concerned about.”
There were some rare flashes of concern, but they were greatly washed
out by the repetitive rhetoric and downplay. Realistically, if
leaders really did have a grasp on the situation and the potential
outcomes, once the President of the United States tells the nation
that there is no harm, there should have been no need for the constant
barrage of “me too” statements.
“This is very, very radioactive material,” cautioned Kenneth Bergeron,
a physicist who worked at Sandia National Laboratories. “If there is
core on the floor and containment penetration, there will be
significant public health consequences.”
“We are all-out urging the Japanese to get more people back in there
to do emergency operation there, that the next 24 to 48 hours are
critical,” an American official told ABC News. If cesium and other
radioactive elements with long half-lives get into the air, “that
could be deadly for decades,” the official said.[9]
Jeff Masters, a former meteorologist at the National Weather Service
who now works at Wunderground.com said, “Any radiation at current
levels of emission that might reach these places may not even be
detectable, much less be a threat to human health.”[10]
Ok, but enough of what people were saying, what were the facts? On
Tuesday, March 15th, the International Atomic Energy Agency said that
radiation dose rates of up to 400 millisievert (mSv) per hour had been
reported at the Fukushima plant site immediately following one of the
explosions. In comparison, a typical chest X-ray exposes an individual
to about 0.02 mSv.
Chief Cabinet Secretary Yukio Edano would reveal that levels had risen
to over 1,000 millisieverts, before the dose level began falling again
to 600-800 millisieverts per hour, which is still considered unsafe
for workers. ”So the workers cannot carry out even minimal work at
the plant now,” Edano said. “Because of the radiation risk, we are on
standby.”
“Please do not go outside. Please stay indoors. Please close windows
and make your homes airtight. Don’t turn on ventilators. Please hang
your laundry indoors,” Chief Cabinet Secretary Yukio Edano said to the
residents in the danger zone. “These are figures that potentially
affect health. There is no mistake about that.” But according to NRC
documents released through the Freedom of Information Act, sheltering
in place doesn’t really add that much protection for the public.
Seven US Navy ships were quickly dispatched to the affected eastern
coast of Japan to conduct relief operations, but were moved farther
downwind from the plant on Sunday, March 13th, after naval personnel
on the USS George Washington, a U.S. aircraft carrier assisting in the
recovery efforts, detected low levels of radiation, prompting military
personnel to take precautions that included limiting outdoor activity.
According to 7th Fleet Commander and Spokesman Jeff Davis, the
radiation was first detected by air particulate detectors aboard three
helicopters located 60 miles away from the shoreline, while returning
to the carrier from a relief mission to the quake and tsunami ravaged
city of Sendai. After the helicopters landed on the carrier,
radioactive contamination was found on the exterior surface of three
aircrafts.
Detectors aboard the USS Ronald Reagan also rang out while it was
located 100 miles north east of the crippled plant, and the ships’
crew was exposed to “a very low level of radiation” from a plume
emitted by the plant according to reports. After following
decontamination protocols, 17 crewmembers aboard and the three
helicopters were tested and found to have been exposed to low levels
of radiation, and some were found to have clothes and skin
contaminated. All of the contaminated clothing was discarded, showers
were ordered all around with adequate amounts of soap and water.[11]
What officials didn’t publicize, was that the USS Ronald Reagan had
detected 0.6 millirem of radiation just in direct gamma radiation
cloudshine from the plume passing overhead, that air samples also
taken were 30 times normal background of air out at sea, and all this
was over 100 nautical miles from the plant. This was much more
significant than experts had thought, but still consistent with known
containment venting operations at the Fukushima Daiichi plant (a
critical point we will come back to later). To be honest, experts had
not even expected that level at 25 miles away, let alone 100, at those
levels it would take less than 10 hours to reach levels which would
require the establishment of protective action guidelines.[12]
Officials also didn’t mention that crewmembers were found contaminated
up to 2,500 disintegrations per minute in some parts of their
clothing. They definitely didn’t talk about the fact that at an Air
Force Base south of Tokyo, health physics teams had measured 1.5 mSv
(150 millirem) per hour thyroid doses in the air.[13] Remember, a
typical chest X-ray exposes an individual to about 0.02 mSv (20
millirem).
What caused the hydrogen explosions?
Officials and experts were completely unprepared for the size and
devastating veracity of the hydrogen explosions; which ripped apart
the Fukushima Daiichi reactor buildings, could be felt over 25 miles
away, and left such vivid imprints on the minds of all who viewed the
media footage.
For days after the explosions, officials at emergency command centers
around the world stood nearly hypnotized watching and re-watching the
explosions at the plant, even though by then a gray plume of smoke
could be seen rising from Unit 3 on the command center’s television
long after the explosions had occurred. Everyone had been helpless
while watching the Unit 3 building ripped apart, there was nothing
which could be done even though it was the primary focus of concern,
even though Secretary Yukio Edano had said the government knew an
explosion there was possible after the Unit 1 building was destroyed
on Saturday, March 12th.
There have been a lot of quiet whispers in solemn halls of late, of
reports and studies which suggest that the amounts of hydrogen just
from fuel cladding failure in the reactors would be enough to generate
the size of the explosions that were actually witnessed. Some
questions have been raised which ask if the majority of the hydrogen
was produced from concrete ablation as nuclear fuel escaped the
reactor pressure vessel and began attacking the steel and concrete
containment structures which house the reactor vessels.
On March 15th, 2011, Dr. Peter Hosemann, a nuclear energy expert and
professor at the University of California at Berkeley did not think
so, telling the press, “Having too much of the fuel rods exposed for
too long of a time can lead to the core melt. Again, if a core melt
happens, the reactor pressure vessel and the containment are designed
to contain it.”
Some of the brightest minds at national laboratories in the United
States have been studying the ex-vessel core melt at the Fukushima
Daiichi reactors. They haven’t been able to draw a conclusive thread
yet, but some research is suggesting that concrete ablation may have
played into the Unit 1 reactor building explosion. This may prove to
ring true, as it corroborates with radiation measured by the USS
Ronald Reagan, which detected radiation levels that corresponded with
venting operations on-site, and NRC officials are not the only ones
who have admitted that fuel elements have been scattered on-site and
up to half a mile away from the explosions, they just haven’t been
able to track it back to one specific source over another.
How Japan nuked the world
In conducting the research for this article, the author again returned
to the 2012 Stohl study published in the Atmospheric, Chemistry, and
Physics Journal, focusing on the Xenon-133 and Cesium-137 released
from Fukushima Daiichi.[14]
At the end of the Abstract, the authors note that, “Altogether, we
estimate that 6.4 PBq of 137Cs, or 18% of the total fallout until
April 20th, were deposited over Japanese land areas, while most of the
rest fell over the North Pacific Ocean. Only 0.7 PBq, or 1.9 % of the
total fallout were deposited on land areas other than Japan.”
The casual reader may easily gloss over this, the author did when it
was first published, likely too distracted by the fresh details of the
noble gas release, which was the largest in history on record, easily
exceeding Chernobyl. But, 0.7 PBq, is also 700 TBq, which is
equivalent to 700,000,000,000,000 becqerels of Cesium 137, which was
deposited on land areas other than Japan. Not just that which passed
over, (multiple times as the Fukushima plume was found to traverse the
globe every 40 days), but that which was deposited on land areas other
than Japan.
At a limited yield of only 89 TBq per detonation, the amount of Cesium
137 which is proposed to have deposited on lands other than Japan,
after passing over large expanses of sea and land, is greater than
that which would be produced by detonating more than seven and a half
Hiroshima-style nuclear bombs in the skies directly overhead.
All of this Cesium, the equivalent to that generated by seven and a
half nuclear bombs is thought to have deposited on foreign lands, even
more, at least the equivalent of that generated by more than four
hundred nuclear bombs, is known to have passed over and deposited
elsewhere or still traverse the upper limits of the atmosphere, and
North America is one of the first recipients of whatever the
prevailing winds drag across the Pacific Ocean, yet none of the EPA
guidelines were exceeded.
Isn’t that a wonderful thing? Are you not reassured?
SOURCE:
http://enformable.com/2013/03/two-years-have-passed-since-japan-nuked-the-rest-of-the-world/