On 2012-02-12 17:35 , Hans-Georg Michna wrote:
> On Fri, 10 Feb 2012 11:41:42 -0500, Alan Browne wrote:
>
>> On 2012-02-10 11:24 , Hans-Georg Michna wrote:
>
>>> I predict that the institutions involved in this will not
>>> publish how exactly they determine what is good or bad driving
>>> from GPS data records.
>
>> Actually they do. They're goal is not to game the system but to pay out
>> less claims. So in installing such devices they benefit by telling you
>> exactly what they consider risky driving and what they will look for in
>> the record. If you don't drive "that way" they won't find it in the record.
>
> Surprising for me. I will look at their definition, as soon as I
> get offered such an insurance.
>
>>> I have severe doubts that they can actually predict the
>>> likelihood of traffic accidents from GPS records. The
>
>> They're not looking for likelihood of accidents, they're looking for
>> irresponsible behavior which increases the overall likelihood of accidents.
>
> That is a tautology. If anything increases the likelihood of
> accidents, then it increases the likelihood of accidents.
Ins. co's aren't looking at your past bad behaviour that didn't cause an
accident at that time. They are looking at your past bad behaviour that
makes it more likely that you will have an accident because of your bad
habits.
IOW, if you drive aggressively in corners, they believe it means you are
more likely to have an accident in any driving condition, not just
corners. It's your whole attitude towards driving that is suspect.
>>> information is insufficient for the purpose.
>
>> Depends on recording rate. For these purposes I would hope it is on the
>> order of 5 Hz or more. (note that an intelligent recorder can record
>> "special events" at a higher/detailed rate and ho-hum - down the highway
>> at a lower rate - or not at all).
>
> I don't think a high recording rate solves the problem. The
> problem is that the GPS only records the movement of the car,
> but the movement of the car is pretty much meaningless if you
> don't know the situation it is in.
The dynamics of the car represent the commands of the driver. High rate
recording most accurately shows the dynamics of the vehicle.
If you enter a curve and accelerate out, normally, this is revealed in
the data. If you accelerate aggressively, this is also shown.
If you jack rabbit off of a stop...
If you do not make complete stops at a stop sign...
If you drive significantly above the speed limit in a residential area...
If you consistently drive above the limit on the highway...
If you always make sharp/hard stops...
And so on.
And the more often you do this ( bad-behaviour / opportunities ) then
your "badness" goes up in the ins. co profile.
> Let me give you a simple example. I drive, GPS-equipped.
> Somebody in the neighboring lane swerves into my lane. I spot it
> at the last moment and successfully avoid an accident by means
> of a very sudden, extreme steering maneuver. My driving was
> perfect and excellent, perhaps far above the average driver's
> abilities (to spice the example a little).
>
> Now guess what the insurance company reads out of my GPS record.
That depends how they process it. If they do so in a statistically
valid fashion, that event would disappear into the noise.
> I could give you more examples. They are, in fact, easy to find.
> Assume I avoid running over a child that jumps on the street,
> but in saving the child's life I end up wrecking my car. I
> suspect, had I rolled straight over the child, my GPS record
> would have been impeccable, never mind that the value of a
> child's life is incomparably higher than the value of my car,
> and never mind that the insurance company would greatly prefer
> to replace my car, rather than compensate a family for the loss
> of their child.
As above - such events would disappear into the noise.
> I state that you cannot determine the likelihood of accidents
> from any GPS record. I think the whole thing is almost a joke.
The joke is not measuring things and relying on anecdotes. When you
measure you have something to refer to.
Ins. companies traditionally only had your claims record. (low rate,
coarse data, a lot of subjectiveness).
Then (in most North American states/provinces) the ins. companies would
also get your moving infractions. More pertinent data (moving
infractions usually are non-safe-practice indicators).
So, with GPS recordings, they will be getting even more detailed
"behaviour" that indicates riskiness.
>>> They will probably find some correlations, but there will always
>>> be drivers whose GPS records indicate that they are poor
>>> drivers, and yet they have no accidents.
>
>> Individually it is often unfair: the well behaved unmarried 21 year old
>> male driver pays high ins. costs due to his peers.
>>
>> Collectively, it drives down the cost for "mature" drivers.
>
> I don't see how you come to this conclusion.
It's the fact in North America on how insurance works. Insurance
companies tell you specifically what drives their price. Any 20 year
old who buys a car is told by the ins. salesperson specifically all the
reasons why their rate is so high... Indeed my full coverage insurance
is 1/5 of my son's full coverage insurance for his car. (He's since
dropped to liability only - meaning damage to his car would not be
covered - that makes him a much more careful driver!).