Storms, weather no worse than 100 years ago, we just hear about it more now

[r e e n c o n@.Gr.eencon .G. r. e e n c o n]

It's all perception created by a vastly larger media. Every little
thing is of "dire" importance and (because 4/5ths of the adult
population suffers from innumeracy) people believe things are more
severe than long ago. They aren't. Now, everyone with a phone can
film a tornado and every house blown down in a hurricane has its image
blasted across the globe in seconds. What result did anyone expect?

[Surfer]

On Sat, 2 Jun 2012 13:37:28 +1000, ".G. r. e e n c o n" <.G. r e e n c
o n@.G r. e e n c o n> wrote:

>
>It's all perception created by a vastly larger media.....
>

It would be nice if that was true, but research seems to show
otherwise:

Global Warming Will Bring Violent Storms And Tornadoes, NASA Predicts
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2007/08/070830105911.htm

".....Previous climate model studies have shown that heavy rainstorms
will be more common in a warmer climate, but few global models have
attempted to simulate the strength of updrafts in these storms. The
model developed at NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies by
researchers Tony Del Genio, Mao-Sung Yao, and Jeff Jonas is the first
to successfully simulate the observed difference in strength between
land and ocean storms and is the first to estimate how the strength
will change in a warming climate..."

Extreme Weather of Last Decade Part of Larger Pattern Linked to Global
Warming
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2012/03/120325173206.htm

".....The past decade has been one of unprecedented weather extremes.
Scientists of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)
in Germany argue that the high incidence of extremes is not merely
accidental. From the many single events a pattern emerges. At least
for extreme rainfall and heat waves the link with human-caused global
warming is clear, the scientists show in a new analysis of scientific
evidence in the journal Nature Climate Change. Less clear is the link
between warming and storms, despite the observed increase in the
intensity of hurricanes...."

<snip>

".....The scientists base their analysis on three pillars: basic
physics, statistical analysis and computer simulations. Elementary
physical principles already suggest that a warming of the atmosphere
leads to more extremes. For example, warm air can hold more moisture
until it rains out. Secondly, clear statistical trends can be found in
temperature and precipitation data, the scientists explain. And
thirdly, detailed computer simulations also confirm the relation
between warming and records in both temperature and precipitation.

With warmer ocean temperatures, tropical storms -- called typhoons or
hurricanes, depending on the region -- should increase in intensity
but not in number, according to the current state of knowledge. In the
past decade, several record-breaking storms occurred, for example
hurricane Wilma in 2004. But the dependencies are complex and not yet
fully understood. The observed strong increase in the intensity of
tropical storms in the North Atlantic between 1980 and 2005, for
example, could be caused not just by surface warming but by a cooling
of the upper atmosphere. Furthermore, there are questions about the
precision and reliability of historic storm data.

Overall, cold extremes decrease with global warming, the scientists
found. But this does not compensate for the increase in heat
extremes...."

[jg]

I'm not sure anyone knows what to expect, but melting ice caps and
rising sea levels would seem to be a good indicator.

[troppo]

Surfer <sbs...@tpg.com.au> wrote in
news:6lcks7hoafbgrt4c6...@4ax.com:

> On Sat, 2 Jun 2012 13:37:28 +1000, ".G. r. e e n c o n" <.G. r e e n c
> o n@.G r. e e n c o n> wrote:
>
>>
>>It's all perception created by a vastly larger media.....
>>
>
> It would be nice if that was true, but research seems to show
> otherwise:

On the contrary. Huge number of studies show, basically, no change or
reduction in extreme weather events.

The problem is, CAGW now obviously bogus. So the usual suspects switch to
calling it "climate change". This helps to conceal the agenda, because no
competent observer thinks that climate is actually static.
But that's not enough. So they switch to "extreme weather". Convenient
ploy in an age when most people have a $30 mobile phone capable of
recording imaging and video, because far more of it gets reported and
displayed.

Argument from ignorance.
There are many people out there who didn't discover extreme weather
events yesterday - they have been analysing them for decades !!

> [...]
Snipped the alarmist sources. One so old it still refers to Global
Warming. For the Potsdam Institute stuff, see Anthony Watt's rebuttal:

http://goo.gl/GMBcN

Let's start locally:

"BOM’s 2010-2011 tropical cyclone forecast: 20-22 cyclones forecast with
a high level of confidence.
BOM Summary: Above average tropical cyclone activity expected for the
Australian region (98% chance!)
Season outcome: 11 actual cyclones (average is 12).

The 2011-2012 cyclone season Australia’s premier meteorological institute
predicted an 80% chance that cyclones would exceed the long term average
(12). The actual number of cyclones (8) was 33% below the long term
average. "

Source:

http://abcnewswatch.blogspot.com.au/2012/06/cyclone-forecast-bom-part-
2.html

One wonders how many times they have to be completely wrong before they
issue a retraction / correction / public declaration of their stupidity ?

Not expecting one. As it happens, several of their own staff have
rebutted this nonsense, even though they need to watch their backs, keep
paying the mortgage etc.

What is happening of course is that "extreme weather" is now falling
apart faster than AGW, and the alarmists are now casting around for
something else to keep the gravy train running. Looks like it might be
"sustainability". That figures.

Again, those of us who actually know what we are talking about will have
to find a new descriptor for the subject ...

[troppo]

jg <j...@nospam.com> wrote in news:T3xyr.7611$v14.769
@viwinnwfe02.internal.bigpond.com:

have a look at

http://joannenova.com.au/2012/05/man-made-sea-level-rises-are-due-to-
global-adjustments/

http://goo.gl/x19yO

http://joannenova.com.au/2011/12/australian-sea-level-rises-exaggerated-by-
8-fold-or-maybe-ten/

http://goo.gl/aemOr

I picked up on the last one, because it has been part of my work for years
to keep an eye on several local tide gauges, for establishing HAT values
etc.

The "adjusters" are too stupid to realise that the raw data is available
from more than one source.

[dechucka]

"troppo" <t--...@gmail.com> wrote in message
news:XnsA0675FCD...@88.198.244.100...

> Surfer <sbs...@tpg.com.au> wrote in
> news:6lcks7hoafbgrt4c6...@4ax.com:
>
>> On Sat, 2 Jun 2012 13:37:28 +1000, ".G. r. e e n c o n" <.G. r e e n c
>> o n@.G r. e e n c o n> wrote:
>>
>>>
>>>It's all perception created by a vastly larger media.....
>>>
>>
>> It would be nice if that was true, but research seems to show
>> otherwise:
>
> On the contrary. Huge number of studies show, basically, no change or
> reduction in extreme weather events.

really? Cites

[dechucka]

"troppo" <t--...@gmail.com> wrote in message

news:XnsA06762B15...@88.198.244.100...

IF what you says is true you should have a grasp of reality, the water from
the retreating glaciers and ice shelves plus the thermal expansion of the
oceans is having an effect
>

[son of a bitch]

There are good decades and bad decades, all depends on
the Sun, the Moon, the Earth's Magnetic Field and all of
these are always changing. And that is why the Climate is
constantly changing, not because of man's additional
15 CO2 Molecules (1 Molecule for Oz) in 1,000,000 Molecules.

--
By er, setting me up with Hookers
::Craig "Man About Town" Thompson
I haven't seen what the Prime Minister has said,
but I support what she said.
::Bill Shorten
If you don't Understand it, Don't vote for it
If you understand it, you'd never vote for it.
::Paul Keating
There wull be no Carbon Tax under the Government I lead
That is completely untrue, Completely untrue
::Julia Gillard

[troppo]

"dechucka" <dech...@hotmail.com> wrote in
news:FfSdnfU3hKubL1fS...@westnet.com.au:

Here's one starting point:

http://www.nipccreport.org/archive/cryosphere/sealevel.html

[troppo]

"dechucka" <dech...@hotmail.com> wrote in
news:XNudnXlU97gfL1fS...@westnet.com.au:

> IF what you says is true you should have a grasp of reality ...

I do have a grasp of reality. I noticed that (a) much of what was being
claimed did not match my own records, then (b) much of what was being
claimed was based on modelling of adjusted values. Enough to explain why
the results didn't match reality

> .... the water from the retreating glaciers and ice shelves plus the

> thermal expansion of the oceans is having an effect

Sure, the levels rise - then fall. The fluctuations tend to follow a flat
sine wave pattern. In the area I am concerned with, this pattern follows
pressure and temperature changes associated with the Southern Oscillation
Index.

Nothing to see here - move along ...

[dechucka]

"troppo" <t--...@gmail.com> wrote in message

news:XnsA0679742B...@88.198.244.100...

I'll read this while you compile the rest of the huge number

[dechucka]

"troppo" <t--...@gmail.com> wrote in message

news:XnsA06798DB8...@88.198.244.100...

I agree till you produce something

[dechucka]

"troppo" <t--...@gmail.com> wrote in message

news:XnsA0679742B...@88.198.244.100...

try again nothing about extreme weather

[troppo]

"dechucka" <dech...@hotmail.com> wrote in
news:f6mdnaUqF_NjiVbS...@westnet.com.au:

Don't think I'll bother. Plenty of data available if you look.

Search on "sea level" and "extreme weather" at the NIPCC, Joanne Nova,
Anthony Watts websites.

[7]

son of a bitch wrote:

> On 2/06/2012 1:37 PM, .G. r. e e n c o n wrote:
>> It's all perception created by a vastly larger media. Every little
>> thing is of "dire" importance and (because 4/5ths of the adult
>> population suffers from innumeracy) people believe things are more
>> severe than long ago. They aren't. Now, everyone with a phone can
>> film a tornado and every house blown down in a hurricane has its image
>> blasted across the globe in seconds. What result did anyone expect?
>>
>>
>
> There are good decades and bad decades, all depends on
> the Sun, the Moon, the Earth's Magnetic Field and all of
> these are always changing. And that is why the Climate is
> constantly changing,

You mean constantly changing weather?
Climate hasn't changed in 10,000 years.

> not because of man's additional
> 15 CO2 Molecules (1 Molecule for Oz) in 1,000,000 Molecules.

There is sod all we can do when climate does change.
Its driven by events in space environment such
Sun and its temperature cycles as well as
orbits and tilts of the planet, cosmic ray background etc,
and nothing else; all of which have been predicted with extreme accuracy
with no evidence to suggest that we have ever deviated from
those predictions.

[Xavier Onnasis]

troppo <t--...@gmail.com> wrote in
news:XnsA067BFD15...@88.198.244.100:

sure, the moronosphere is chock full of foolishness

but what I'm guessing dechucka wants is citations from peer reviewed
journals that back up your claim...and that the reason you can't be
bothered to point out your alleged "huge number of studies" is that
they don't exist




--

XO

[dechucka]

"troppo" <t--...@gmail.com> wrote in message

news:XnsA067BFD15...@88.198.244.100...

Can't? OK fair enough. You shouldn't make statements without being able to
back them up

[troppo]

Xavier Onnasis <xavier.onnasis@mule_brokers.com> wrote in
news:XnsA0678A3346BC2D...@74.209.136.99:

Certainly is

> but what I'm guessing dechucka wants is citations from peer reviewed
> journals that back up your claim...and that the reason you can't be
> bothered to point out your alleged "huge number of studies" is that
> they don't exist

"Ya want fries with that ?"

They do exist. The reputation of "Peer Review" has certainly been damaged
following the revelations from Climategate 1 & 2, journal editors being
forced to resign because they dared to publish something that disagreed
with the Team etc, but a fair amount has got through.

Most of the following are reviews rather than the original paper, but
publication details are there. No way I'm providing links to actual
papers. Some are pay-walled. I have some, and have paid for some. Anyone
wants more, I'll require a valid address and payment on invoice.

Cyclones etc?

http://policlimate.com/tropical/

Links to peer-reviewed papers, public domain data.

http://www.nipccreport.org/archive/extremewx/hurricanes.html

Something like 46 papers, most refuting the "increasing extreme weather"
creed.

http://www.nipccreport.org/articles/2012/apr/4apr2012a3.html

[The above was particularly helpful - confirmed what those of us who
actually live in cyclone regions have known for decades.]

http://www.nipccreport.org/articles/2011/may/24may2011a1.html

http://www.nipccreport.org/articles/2010/dec/22dec2010a1.html

Floods?

http://www.nipccreport.org/articles/2012/may/22may2012a2.html

http://www.nipccreport.org/articles/2012/feb/28feb2012a3.html

[r e e n c o n@.Gr.eencon .G. r. e e n c o n]

"Surfer" <sbs...@tpg.com.au> wrote in message
news:6lcks7hoafbgrt4c6...@4ax.com...

> On Sat, 2 Jun 2012 13:37:28 +1000, ".G. r. e e n c o n" <.G. r e e n c
> o n@.G r. e e n c o n> wrote:
>
>>
>>It's all perception created by a vastly larger media.....
>>
>
> It would be nice if that was true, but research seems to show
> otherwise:
>
> Global Warming Will Bring Violent Storms And Tornadoes, NASA Predicts
> http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2007/08/070830105911.htm

So say the GIGO climate models!

> Extreme Weather of Last Decade Part of Larger Pattern Linked to Global
> Warming
> http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2012/03/120325173206.htm
>
> ".....The past decade has been one of unprecedented weather extremes.
> Scientists of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)
> in Germany argue that the high incidence of extremes is not merely
> accidental.

Not accidental indeed!
!t has always been happening


Decoding what climate "scientists" say ....

"Unprecedented"

"a record year"

- No actual historical research was performed




1588 Major storm sinks Spanish Armada, killing an estimated 20,000 sailors

1775 Deadliest tsunami on record to this time kills 60,000 people as far
flung as Morocco and the West Indies

1780 Great Hurricane across the Caribbean leaves 22,000 dead

1849 Start of major drought in Arizona; it lasts until 1905

1864 Massive cyclone near Calcutta, India, killed an estimated 70,000 of the
population

1876 Cyclone in Bangladesh kills an estimated 215,000

1876 Start of three year drought and famine in China; an estimated 9 million
people die from its effects

1881 Typhoon in China leaves nearly 300,000 dead

1887 An estimated 1 million people die as the result of flooding, when the
Chinese Yellow River bursts its banks

1892 Oppressive London smog killed over 1,000 people

1900 Hurricane at Galvestan, Texas, kills 6,000

1907 Famine in China kills an estimated 20 million

1909 F4 tornado in Brinkley, Arkansas, killed 49 people

1910 Great Fire destroyed 3 million acres in Idaho and Montana, leaving 86
people dead

1921 Major drought and famine in Ukraine and other regions of the Soviet
Union kill up to 5 million people

1925 The Tri-State tornado (Missouri, Illionois and Indiana) was the
deadliest on record, killing nearly 700 people

1928 Drought conditions in China responsible for the deaths of around 3
million of the population

1931 Flooding in China killed 3.7 million people

1932 The Russian famine of this year killed an estimated 5 million people

1935 The Great Labor Day hurricane (USA) is the strongest hurricane recorded
at its landfall on the Florida Keys

1936 'New Famine' devastates China, with an estimated 5 million fatalities

1941 Two years of severe droughts in China leave 3 million dead by
starvation

1950 Hurricanes to be named alphabetically from this year

1952 The Great Smog of December responsible for deaths of an estimated 4,000
people in London

1952 Flood in Lynmouth, Devon, kills dozens in one of Britain's worst
natural disasters

1953 Severe storms and flooding leave 130 dead in Eastern Britain, the UK's
worst natural disaster to date

1958 Typhoon Vera leaves 1.5 million Japanese homeless, with an estimed
5,000 fatalities

1962 Last major smog recorded in London

1962 Peruvian avalanche killed almost 4,000 people

1965 Major drought in India responsible for 1.5 million deaths

1969 Hurricane Camille, the second strongest recorded in the US in the 20th
century, hit the Gulf Coast and caused several hundred deaths

1969 Severe famine in China was responsible for the deaths of an estimated
20 million of the population

1969 Mississippi ravaged by Hurricane Camille

1970 Cyclone and tidal waves killed over 300,000 people in Bangladesh

1971 100,000 killed in Vietnamese floods

1972 Severe blizzards in Iran cost 4,000 lives

1973 Severe monsoons in India leave over 1,200 dead

1974 Massive tornado outbreak on April 3/4 in the US; 148 separate tornadoes
grounded, 348 people died and almost 5,500 injured

1977 A devastating cyclone in India results in 20,000 deaths

1978 New England Blizzard severely disrupts Eastern United States

1979 Hurricane David kills over 2,000 in the Eastern US and the Caribbean

1981 104 tornadoes recorded in the UK on November 21

1983 Ash Wednesday fires in Australia leave 76 people dead, destroy almost
half a million sheep and cattle, with final damages estimated at close to 1
billion Australian dollars

1987 Severe winter storm in Southern UK leaves several dead

1989 Bangladesh devastated by a massive tornado, which kills over 1,300
people

1991 Last London smog of any major significance

1991 Cyclone in Bangladesh killed 130,000 people and left 9 million more
homeless

1991 The Perfect Storm, used as the backdrop to the Hollywood movie of the
same name, rages off the Eastern Seaboard of the US

1992 Hurricane Andrew in Southern Florida cost the US an estimated 26.5
billion dollars in damages

1992 Satellite observation of Hurricane Andrew (see above) enabled thousands
of people to evacuate threatened Florida areas

1993 100ft tsunami causes 200 deaths in Japan and Russia

1993 Great Midwest Flood in Mississippi region of US caused 18 billion
dollars worth of damages

1993 Storm of the Century hits Eastern United States in March

1998 Hurricane Mitch hit the Caribbean, and its tailoff over Central America
devastated Honduras

1998 Over 2,200 fires ravaged Florida, with over 80,000 people requiring
evacuation. The fires caused 390 million dollars worth of timber losses and
cost over 133 million dollars to fight

1999 Tornado which strikes Oklahoma City has wind speeds in excess of 318
mph (509 km/h)

2001 Millions disrupted by extreme flooding in Vietnam and Cambodia

2001 Severe flooding in Mozambique and Southeast Africa

2003 Cedar Fire in California caused widespread devastation, with losses
estimated at almost 2 billion dollars

2004 Florida is ravaged in the late summer by four major hurricanes,
Charley, Frances, Ivan and Jeanne, with estimated losses topping 22 billion
dollars

2005 Hurricane Katrina devastates New Orleans, leaving thousands dead and
over a million without homes







http://www.intute.ac.uk/sciences/hazards/timeline.html





Warmest Regards



B O N Z O



"It is a remarkable fact that despite the worldwide expenditure of perhaps
US$50 billion since 1990, and the efforts of tens of thousands of scientists
worldwide, no human climate signal has yet been detected that is distinct
from natural variation."

Bob Carter, Research Professor of Geology, James Cook University, Townsville



"A major problem has been the co-option of climate science by politics,
ambition, greed, and what seems to be a hereditary human need for a
righteous cause."

"What better cause than "saving" the planet, especially if one can get
ample, secure funding at the same time?"

William Happer, Cyrus Fogg Brackett Professor of Physics, Princeton
University.



"The claim is that the temperature has changed from ~288.0 to ~288.8ºK in
about 150 years, which, if true, means to me that the temperature has been
amazingly stable, and both human health and happiness have definitely
improved in this 'warming' period,".

Nobel Laureate Dr. Ivar Giaever:



"If climate has not "tipped" in over 4 billion years it's not going to tip
now due to mankind. The planet has a natural thermostat"

Richard S. Lindzen, Atmospheric Physicist, Professor of Meteorology MIT,
Former IPCC Lead Author



"A core problem is that science has given way to ideology. The scientific
method has been dispensed with, or abused, to serve the myth of man-made
global warming."

"The World Turned Upside Down", Melanie Phillips



"Computer models are built in an almost backwards fashion: The goal is to
show evidence of AGW, and the "scientists" go to work to produce such a
result. When even these models fail to show what advocates want, the data
and interpretations are "fudged" to bring about the desired result"

"The World Turned Upside Down", Melanie Phillips



"Ocean acidification looks suspiciously like a back-up plan by the
environmental pressure groups in case the climate fails to warm: another try
at condemning fossil fuels!"

http://www.rationaloptimist.com/blog/threat-ocean-acidification-greatly-exaggerated



Before attacking hypothetical problems, let us first solve the real problems
that threaten humanity. One single water pump at an equivalent cost of a
couple of solar panels can indeed spare hundreds of Sahel women the daily
journey to the spring and spare many infections and lives.

Martin De Vlieghere, philosopher



"All it takes to find oneself called a 'denier' is to seek a sense of
proportion about environmental problems"

Mark Lynas, The God Species